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Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals

07-20-2018 , 11:25 AM
Running pretty bad at 50nl. It feels like whenever I'm in a tough situation, I choose one option over the other, and I end up getting punished for it and wishing I chose the other option.

Hand 1: I chose to slowplay

50nl, $50 effective

Hero raises $1.25 BTN with Ks Kh
Villain calls $1.25 BB

Flop ($2.75) is Jc 5d 4s

Villain donks $2
Hero calls $2

I often raise in this spot, but I decided to slowplay this one time.

Turn ($6.75) is Jc 5d 4s 8h

Villain bets $4.50
Hero calls $4.50

River ($15.75) is Jc 5d 4s 8h Jh

Villain bets $9.50
Hero calls $9.50

Villain wins with J9o

Hand 2: I chose to squeeze

50nl
Hero has $59.75, other villains are both $107 effective

V1 opens $1.50 BTN
V2 calls $1.50 SB
Hero 3bets to $7.50 BB with JTcc
V1 calls $7.50
V2 folds

I often flat here as this hand as I'm getting a great price and closing the action with a hand that plays well multiway, but I chose to squeeze this time.

Flop ($16.50) is Ac 8c 7d

Hero checks
Villain bets $8.25
Hero jams $52.25
Villain calls $52.25

Villain shows 65cc so his combo draw is actually in pretty bad shape against my specific hand. I'm a 76% favourite. But he rivers a pair of 6s and wins.

Hand 3: I chose to jam turn here

50nl
A lot of short stackers on this table. In order from shallowest to deepest:
MP has $18.49
BB has $20.83
SB has $27.69
Hero has $60.14
UTG covers everyone

UTG limps $0.50
MP limps $0.50
CO folds
Hero raises BTN to $2.75 with KJo (no diamond)
SB calls $2.75
BB calls $2.75
UTG calls $2.75
MP calls $2.75

Flop ($13.75, 5ways) is 9d 7c 2s

Checks around

Turn ($13.75) is 9d 7c 2s Jd

SB checks
BB checks
UTG checks
MP bets $13.75
Hero jams $57.39
SB folds
BB calls all-in for $18.08
UTG folds
MP calls all-in for 15.74

MP has KJo and BB has 77 (set) and scoops

I almost feel like I could've gotten away from that hand against the pot-sized turn bet in a 5way pot. I mean, it's optimistic to assume that he's ever making this play with QJ or JT, so I'm chopping at best, and I run the risk of getting x/jammed with so many players to act behind.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-20-2018 , 12:00 PM
6,

How do shortstackers in these games play compared to how the full stack guys play?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-20-2018 , 12:43 PM
I have all of 0 hands of on-line under my belt, so my questions are extremely noobish, but:

How much do you think you can make per hour playing these on-line games? Is it easy to get money in/out (with no cost)?

I mean, you have a monthly nut to meet and are you going to meet that playing these on-line games (or are they so chicken feed stakes that they are simply wasting hours where you could be out actually making money)?

Just seems it would be much easier to actually have a chance at accomplishing your required nut by (a) playing your soft live 1/3 NL game (nothing bigger, no PLO, etc.), (b) only in a good state of mind (no late night drinking / blowing off steam sessions, etc.), (c) using a low variance nitty style (which you can open up once you get a safer BR under your belt) and (d) simply make sure you put in the hours (~5 days a week * ~8 hours a day, like any other job).

Gobviously"quitpokerforever,getajob,notremotelyclo se"istherealanswer,butIassumewe'repastthatG
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-20-2018 , 01:50 PM
Hand 1: Jx gets there, 76 gets there. There's no flush draw. He's not betting underpairs on the river. Only value hand you beat is a weirdly played QQ. Just fold, players aren't bluffing in this spot anywhere near enough to make this a call.

Hand 2: Don't squeeze JTs, just call. Just bet flop rather than check-jamming.

Hand 3: Tough decision between calling and folding turn. Jamming is the worst thing you can do.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-20-2018 , 01:58 PM
Disagree with people telling OP to go back to live. Just play micros->100nl, learn a ****-ton, build up a 5k roll and then go back to 1/3. You'll have a lot more discipline and skill the next time you do it.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-20-2018 , 02:12 PM
Zomg,

Quote:
Originally Posted by z0mgtiltz
Disagree with people telling OP to go back to live. Just play micros->100nl, learn a ****-ton, build up a 5k roll

How long do you think it would prob take him to do that?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-20-2018 , 02:43 PM
I love that you ***** about running bad, and choosing the wrong line and the first hand is literally you saving money by not raising. A hand where given how you play all the money was going in the middle by the river regardless of if you squeezed or not, and then a hand where you got lucky the guy with a set was a shortstack

So really, it looks like you are actually running pretty well.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-20-2018 , 05:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I'm repping A5s, 76s, 65s, 55, 44, 33. I'm never trying to rep overpairs here with a turn raise, nor am I ever repping AQ when I jam 1.6x the pot on the river.

I want you to be 100% honest with me: if you were playing against an unknown player at 50nl, you're holding KK and the unknown player takes this line, would you call it off? I know I wouldn't.
I'll give you a news flash. The avg 50 zone drooler doesn't give a crap what your repping if he has a decent hand and will all you down with 9s+ there all day. You might bluff off the random reg but overall this is a great way to go broke on zone. Just fold turn and move on. Of course I expect you to totally ignore what I just wrote.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 12:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me

Hand 1: I chose to slowplay

50nl, $50 effective

Hero raises $1.25 BTN with Ks Kh
Villain calls $1.25 BB

Flop ($2.75) is Jc 5d 4s

Villain donks $2
Hero calls $2

I often raise in this spot, but I decided to slowplay this one time.

Turn ($6.75) is Jc 5d 4s 8h

Villain bets $4.50
Hero calls $4.50

River ($15.75) is Jc 5d 4s 8h Jh

Villain bets $9.50
Hero calls $9.50

Villain wins with J9o
Raising or flatting seems fine. I lean more towards raising because we can be unbalanced in anonymous pools. As played, pretty clear fold on river. You have so many better hands - sets, straights and Jx.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
Hand 2: I chose to squeeze

50nl
Hero has $59.75, other villains are both $107 effective

V1 opens $1.50 BTN
V2 calls $1.50 SB
Hero 3bets to $7.50 BB with JTcc
V1 calls $7.50
V2 folds

I often flat here as this hand as I'm getting a great price and closing the action with a hand that plays well multiway, but I chose to squeeze this time.

Flop ($16.50) is Ac 8c 7d

Hero checks
Villain bets $8.25
Hero jams $52.25
Villain calls $52.25

Villain shows 65cc so his combo draw is actually in pretty bad shape against my specific hand. I'm a 76% favourite. But he rivers a pair of 6s and wins.
Squeeze vs these positions is profitable so the preflop play is fine. I lean more towards betting on the flop as opposed to x/r. However because of the equity of this hand x/jamming is fine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
Hand 3: I chose to jam turn here

50nl
A lot of short stackers on this table. In order from shallowest to deepest:
MP has $18.49
BB has $20.83
SB has $27.69
Hero has $60.14
UTG covers everyone

UTG limps $0.50
MP limps $0.50
CO folds
Hero raises BTN to $2.75 with KJo (no diamond)
SB calls $2.75
BB calls $2.75
UTG calls $2.75
MP calls $2.75

Flop ($13.75, 5ways) is 9d 7c 2s

Checks around

Turn ($13.75) is 9d 7c 2s Jd

SB checks
BB checks
UTG checks
MP bets $13.75
Hero jams $57.39
SB folds
BB calls all-in for $18.08
UTG folds
MP calls all-in for 15.74

MP has KJo and BB has 77 (set) and scoops

I almost feel like I could've gotten away from that hand against the pot-sized turn bet in a 5way pot. I mean, it's optimistic to assume that he's ever making this play with QJ or JT, so I'm chopping at best, and I run the risk of getting x/jammed with so many players to act behind.
Preflop play is good. Against limpers you want to isolate and KJo is strong enough to do so. I like the preflop size, although I opt for slightly larger when they are 100bb. Flop check is good vs many players. Turn is super standard. Shouldn't be folding KJ or AJ on turn here. Since you say they are short stackers the jam here is perfectly fine.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 12:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by z0mgtiltz
Disagree with people telling OP to go back to live. Just play micros->100nl, learn a ****-ton, build up a 5k roll and then go back to 1/3. You'll have a lot more discipline and skill the next time you do it.
Yeah it's a great way to learn but OP needs money ASAP so if he's not already significantly beating 50NL he is likely going broke before he learns to crush it.

Whereas he could play 1/3 live now knowing what to do and already crushing it (if he has the discipline which is a huge if but similar problems exist online).

And I'm curious what one can make at 50NL these days assuming competence and ability to multitable but not crushing.

Before BF I could spin up dozens of tables which really helped my WR in the small stakes.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 12:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
Playing with fire here

50nl, $57.65 effective

UTG opens $1.50
Hero calls $1.50 MP with AJcc

Flop ($3.75) is 5c 5h 3d

Villain bets $1.37
Hero calls $1.37

Turn ($6.49) is 5c 5h 3d 4s

Villain bets $3.74
Hero raises to $10.48
Villain calls $10.48

River ($27.45) is 5c 5h 3d 4s Qh

Villain checks
Hero jams $44.30
Villain folds

I just thought that it's tough for villain to call with anything really, unless he happens to have one of the very few combos of boats.
This hand seems pretty spew. I will go through the streets and some thought behind it. Shouldn't really be flatting 76s or a5s and 44,33,55 and 65s from MP vs UTG. So these hands 'shouldn't' be in MP's flatting range. If you were in the bb or BTN then it makes more sense.

Anyway preflop is whatever. I am not really a fan of flatting from MP, I prefer 3b or folding. AcJc is definitely strong enough to 3b.

Flop:Call is good
Turn: I lean more towards calling or folding. Raising seems to be the worst option here. You have equity vs some parts of range and still have some showdown value.

As for your play, you cannot really expect to fold overpairs here. In fact all overpairs should probably be bet calling off.

Last edited by skuzlad; 07-21-2018 at 01:03 AM.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 02:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Yeah it's a great way to learn but OP needs money ASAP so if he's not already significantly beating 50NL he is likely going broke before he learns to crush it.

Whereas he could play 1/3 live now knowing what to do and already crushing it (if he has the discipline which is a huge if but similar problems exist online).

And I'm curious what one can make at 50NL these days assuming competence and ability to multitable but not crushing.

Before BF I could spin up dozens of tables which really helped my WR in the small stakes.
Doing some quick math seems like a reasonable guess would be that he would pull around $10/hr but the sick part of that is that's assuming a decent 5bb/100 winrate which he may not even have at his current skill level. Even if he's crushing he's never going to make enough to cover his expenses and to move up. Even if he kills it and wins at 10bb/100 it's not going to be a great situation.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 02:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTyman9
Doing some quick math seems like a reasonable guess would be that he would pull around $10/hr but the sick part of that is that's assuming a decent 5bb/100 winrate which he may not even have at his current skill level. Even if he's crushing he's never going to make enough to cover his expenses and to move up. Even if he kills it and wins at 10bb/100 it's not going to be a great situation.
Yeah in that case online is not a good idea. He should be able to make 20+ an hour at 1/3 pretty easily.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 06:34 AM
Hero learning with 50NL for the skillz + getting a job > hero playing 1/3 + getting a job for the variance free $ > hero playing 1/3 + no job > hero playing 50 NL + no job.

As usual, hero snap calls nut worst choice.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 07:10 AM
Tbh, I would have snapcalled the worst choice... except I'd have done it a few months ago when hero had $10k to his name.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 07:15 AM
same here, but we are online grinders, maybe thats why
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 07:44 AM
Yep. I'm assuming getting a job is out of the question until busto. So OP picks path most likely to lead to busto.

Also agree with Xenoblade and z0mgtiltz that going online route would have been a fine choice had OP done it when he could from the start when he had some breathing room.

I used to play online. I get it. It's comfortable and lots of advantages to playing from home. I miss it sometimes. But compared to what I make playing live I think I would need to be crushing 200NL minimum for comparable earnings. Live is just the easier route if you live in an area with a weak player pool.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 08:40 AM
Quote:
Firstly I would like to apologise if I came across as too arrogant and unwilling to listen. That was never my intention.
Just words. Anyone can talk a good game...but your so-called reflection is full of it, and it don't change a damn thing.

Quote:
I posted results because this is a PG&C, not a strategy forum. I'm primarily just writing up a post of how my session went and what I've achieved or destroyed each day.
What a mind-numbingly thoughtless riposte. I could randomly go to any single one of your HH where you prattle on about your so-called "strategy" all the live long day.

Add this to the ever-growing list of things you need to fix...

"I must learn to think before I type, so I don't contradict myself 10 times in 5 posts"

Or as mirage says, just add to the list of things you intend to ignore.

BTW I don't think you come over as arrogant at all. Just someone in very dire need of some serious professional help.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Yeah it's a great way to learn but OP needs money ASAP so if he's not already significantly beating 50NL he is likely going broke before he learns to crush it.

Whereas he could play 1/3 live now knowing what to do and already crushing it (if he has the discipline which is a huge if but similar problems exist online).

And I'm curious what one can make at 50NL these days assuming competence and ability to multitable but not crushing.

Before BF I could spin up dozens of tables which really helped my WR in the small stakes.
You can't make much at 50nl. $10/hour seems about right for a very good player. Assuming your technical game is excellent, you don't tilt or make silly mistakes, you get the best rakeback deals and you table select well. Anyone making more than that is usually just running hot and doesn't stay around for long.

You can't realistically make a living at anything less than 100nl in a western country like where OP is from. He won't be able to meet his life expenses playing 50nl.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
You can't make much at 50nl. $10/hour seems about right for a very good player. Assuming your technical game is excellent, you don't tilt or make silly mistakes, you get the best rakeback deals and you table select well. Anyone making more than that is usually just running hot and doesn't stay around for long.

You can't realistically make a living at anything less than 100nl in a western country like where OP is from. He won't be able to meet his life expenses playing 50nl.
No offence, but I'd rather get the opinion of someone who is more qualified to answer the question.

...mirage?
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 12:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
You can't make much at 50nl. $10/hour seems about right for a very good player. Assuming your technical game is excellent, you don't tilt or make silly mistakes, you get the best rakeback deals and you table select well. Anyone making more than that is usually just running hot and doesn't stay around for long.
That's simply not correct. Making an assumption that one averages 500 hands an hour (which is a relatively conservative estimate), in order to make $10/h at NL50, the win-rate has to be 4bb/100. You definitely don't need to be among the top regulars of the stake, always at your A-game, and rigorously table-select to achieve higher win-rate. Even the regulars who do have lower win-rate likely achieve higher hourly by playing more tables.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 01:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
You can't make much at 50nl. $10/hour seems about right for a very good player.
You're an idiot. $10/hr is easily doable at $25nl for a very good player on Ignition. I make around $9/hr at $25nl and if I always played my A-game, I'd easily be achieving $12+/hr.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
You can't make much at 50nl. $10/hour seems about right for a very good player. Assuming your technical game is excellent, you don't tilt or make silly mistakes, you get the best rakeback deals and you table select well. Anyone making more than that is usually just running hot and doesn't stay around for long.

You can't realistically make a living at anything less than 100nl in a western country like where OP is from. He won't be able to meet his life expenses playing 50nl.
I’ll just say that the ceiling is way higher than $10/hour at 50nl.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 02:08 PM
But with the never ending supply of droolers in LLSNL games isn’t the ceiling at 1/3 live significantly higher than 10-15 bucks an hour?


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Last edited by prairiebreeze; 07-21-2018 at 02:09 PM. Reason: FU autocorrect
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote
07-21-2018 , 03:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daniel9861
I’ll just say that the ceiling is way higher than $10/hour at 50nl.
Agreed. But OP is not going to be playing well enough to be near the ceiling of what one can make at 50nl in the immediate future though. We can't even be certain he will be a winner right away. Firstly he's coming from a live full ring background and moving to an online 6max zoom game. Secondly he has horrible impulse/tilt control. He is going to get crushed by expenses before he has any chance to succeed. It definitely would have been a better time to move to working on beating online when he had a bigger buffer of money to operate at a small deficit for the first few months. Right now he has a much higher chance of hitting a big enough heater at 1/3nl to survive than he does at 50nl. If he significantly lowers his expenses than maybe 50nl online would be his best choice assuming he actually develops some work ethic and grinds hard.
Having a really bad downswing immediately after setting poker goals Quote

      
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