I was going to guess 20 times as many. You win.

Me too. Let's play HU4Rollz.

He'd be wise to play a nitty GG style game until he gets his bankroll in order. Frankly, he doesn't even know what he doesn't know yet and would be wise to play a nittier style regardless of his bankroll and then open his game up more as he continues to improve.

Yeah playing a nittier style and reducing variance with OPs limited bankroll is a good idea even if it costs him a little bit of ev short term. I think it will probably be a plus ev adjustment though since OP probably tends to be on the spewy side.

The whole point of low stakes live is to extract thin value in every possible situation, but also make huge laydowns when passive players show huge levels of aggression. And I feel that I'm more than capable of doing both.

If you really want to lower variance, then you can pass up on thin value spots. For example, I could've avoided betting $140 into $200 OTT on an Ah 7h 7s 3d board into 2 players when I had ATo in my hand, but I knew that both players were loose-passive fish that could call my bet with weaker Ax hands and a tonne of flush draws, so I went for it. And what happened was: V1 calls $140, V2 jams $600, hero folds, V1 tanks then sigh folds KK face up. The fact that he called 2 streets with KK on an A773 board, with me betting into multiple players, shows that I made the right value bet there. It would've been suboptimal for me to go into nitty x/c mode when there was thin value to be had there.

My 1/3 games are $100-$300 buyin. My biggest loss is around $1500 and my biggest win is around $2k, but those both happened last year. This year, I haven't lost more than $1200 in a night at any stake below 5/5/10, so I'm doing really well so far at minimising losses.

Tonight I'm working, but I'll probably play a daytime session beforehand. My last shift is exactly 7 days from now, and then I'll be done working in fast food forever. Exciting times ahead!

Do you have any friends / contacts in the service industry op? How does it work over there with wages/tipping?

Stopped reading here.

he's not completely wrong

Tipping is quite rare in Australia. We might tip a waitress by letting her keep the change when we buy a drink, but that's about it. I probably averaged less than $2/hr in tips as a pizza delivery driver for over 4 years. Also it's illegal for gambling dealers and cashiers to accept tips.

Minimum wage is around $18/hr and you typically get penalty rates for working at undesirable times (after midnight, on weekends and on public holidays), which means you might actually average around $25-$30/hr for many service jobs. I received less than that though.

The downside though is that the economy isn't great at the moment, so many jobs are quite competitive. A lot of young people want to work as bartenders, for example, but only the most social and most attractive looking ones will get hired.

I have a few friends that work as poker dealers, bartenders and waiters/waitresses. They do alright for themselves. Many of them drive BMW's, go overseas every year, etc.

But a good poker player should be able to earn more than a poker dealer or bartender imo. Plus we don't have to pay tax on gambling winnings.

nah you need to stop thinking that you're going to be making more than minimum wage playing 1/3

he isn't going to be playing 1/3 if his history of doing what he says he is going to do is any indicator of his future actions

Ask anyone who's currently playing 5/10+ what their win rate used to be back when they were playing 1/2, 1/3 and 2/5. They'll all give you an answer like "about 10bbs per hour".

You need to stop assuming that these kind of win rates are impossible to achieve, just because you're not currently achieving them.

There isn't any way to accurately measure live winrates, because you can't put in enough volume. Even if you play 60 hours/week, 50 weeks a year, that's 3000 hours x 30 hands/hour = 90k hands. That's not even enough of a sample to say whether you're a winning player or not, let alone narrow down a winrate.

I think it's ridiculous that people claim live players can make 10bb/hour consistently. That's 33bb/100 hands

People can make 10bb/100 in tough online games where the action goes:
Open to 3x -> call 3x -> 3bet squeeze to 12x -> call 12x -> fold

Now imagine a game where the action goes:
Open limp 1x -> limp 1x -> limp 1x -> raise to 8x -> 4 callers

33bb/100 should easily be attainable at those games.

People are not making 10bbs/100 online (outside of a handful of exception). 33bbs/100 live is easily achievable for the biggest winners at 1-2, 1-3 and 2-5.

At any given time the vast vast majority of "pros" are just whomever has ran hot recently. Go to the same casino once a year and almost every year there will have been a near 100% turnover of "pros".

Kind of depressing to think about...

well live poker is all about finding fat value against the calling station fish and whales. because live volume is so low and rake is so high (compared to online), you need to have a huge edge over your opponents to make any money.

Any moron can get fat value with the nuts.

It takes real skill to go for thin value. To bet/fold the river with an overpair after the front door flush got there. To bet/fold the turn with AK on a KJ98 board instead of getting scared and checking back. These things are what separate the good players from the mediocre players.

Both of these spots seem better suited as bluff-catchers then thin value bets in a vacuum... So now that you will soon take a shot at going pro, what methods/tools will you be using for studying? And how many hours a week?

You are just adorable

I make 8bb/100 at 200/500nl over 250k hands, and I also play live 2/5 and 5/10. Trust me when I tell you that 33/bb 100 is not attainable, even in fishy limped pot games. You might pull 20bb/100 if you're the best one on the table and the rake structure is decent (I also have to tip, you don't so that helps). 20bb/100 will be around 6-7bb/hour, which isn't great unless you're at 5/10 or higher.

fwiw I've made 20bb/hour over the last month. It's just positive variance though. I'll probably top out at 7bb/hour if I play well all the time, but I'll never know because there's no way to put in enough live volume to pin down an accurate winrate.

This isn't meant to discourage you. Just trying to help you be realistic with your goals. Best of luck

(also tough online games don't go open 3x -> call 3x)

Kind of missing the point, but ok. To get your 33bb/100 win rate, you need to be playing against some unbelievable droolers and people who just have no clue what they're doing. Particularly given the huge rake at live poker.

Villains get just as many good hands as we do. 33bb/100 OP?

33bb/100

Only OP would say that 33bb/100 is realistic

Okay so you're saying that everyone who says they make $50/hr at a 2/5 live table is a liar?

nah they just think their little heaters are sustainable. In other words they stupidz.