Quote:
Originally Posted by marke.
I know it's used here a lot in jest but would moving up genuinely help your game do you think?
I'm looking to be staked for the One Drop if you have half a million lying around.
It's a difficult question to answer. I think the "Snowie style" doesn't do very well against very unbalanced players, but it's hard to say to what degree, or at which level a pseudo-GTO style gives you an appreciable edge. By studying and playing against Snowie, and by analysing stats and doing some variance sims, I've come to the conclusion that results in poker (especially over the small samples I play) are so impacted by the 'luck factor', that it's impossible to draw any conclusions about which skill level I "belong" at. I've had better results at 25NL and 50NL than at 2NL, when I played in more or less the same way at each level, but I think it's just that card distribution was on my side at the higher levels. The variance in poker is ridiculous. See below for some "interesting" card distribution facts about the tiny sample of Zoom I played in the last couple of weeks.
First, here are some results:
Week 30 2NL Zoom graph:
[x] Bout 3500 hands
[x] Lost 'bout 350 big blinds.
Costliest mistake:
Easiest Call:
I basically just ran like **** this week, both in terms of card distribution pre-flop, and my (in)ability to actually make a hand. I developed a better idea of what the player pool tendencies were (and this was confirmed by looking at the stats HEM and Snowie gathered post-game). For example, Snowie tells me that 2NLz villains were folding exploitably often to river bets. Did they fold to
my river bets, though? Only when I had a value hand. :/ Over this meaningless samplesize, literally 100% of my triple-barrels with air got called and 100% of my value-jams elicited folds.
I obviously had to deviate from "Snowie-style" play in various spots, as villains at 2NLz are horribly unbalanced, so my error rate was worse than when I'm 'training'. The graph for the 5546 hands I played in the last 10 days or so looks pretty horrendous, but now that I've done a HEM+Snowie
post mortem, I'm actually quite happy with my play.
[x] "World Class" means losing 1bb/100 at 2NLz.
HEM revealed the extent of my card distribution problems in this little sample:
It's hard to make money when you're not getting your fair share of premiums. I also ran particularly badly with suited aces. There is no "luck bell curve" in HEM, but the 'hand at showdown' report showed a distinct lack of big hands:
5546 hands played, 246 showdowns, and only 1 nut flush and two TPTKs? #WTFvariance
Despite running badly, I quite enjoyed the Zoom experience, as it encouraged me to focus better (and I could play more hands in limited time) than when I'm 3 or 4-tabling and trying to remember the tendencies of various screennames. Nevertheless, I think I have more literal "fun" when I'm playing against droolers, so I'm heading back to Unibet for some 10NL+ this week, and then I'm taking some time off to watch the limpics.