I wouldn't underestimate the effect of rake at 2nl. No idea what the max w/r is there, but expect rake puts a fairly low ceiling on it. Good luck catching up with that EV.

Micro stakes are in a very tough spot atm. Most people in the micros won't make terrible mistakes and rake is abysmal. I wouldn't be surprised if nl10 plays close to nl50 nowadays.

But nl2 on stars has a lower rake, tbh I think nl2 should have 0 rake to help players in moving up. The rake at nl25 atm on stars is so insane, they should reduce it in there for sure, games are very hard to beat.

Don't feel bad because you're not crushing those games, beating that rake structure is really hard. Even though I've not played below 50z in the last 15 months I'm not sure if I could beat nl2 by a higher winrate than 4bb/100.

100% in and if you ever want to talk poker hit me up I plan on dedicating more time to actually getting good this year and next.

I think 4bb/100 EV at 2nlz is good (maybe as that's what I'm running at over my sample) higher is definitely achievable but the aim is just move up rather than make that winrate as high as possible. The reality is that you're basically always going to be paying more rake than your winrate at zoom because it's that high.

You 100% can't play microstakes poker with the intention to win decent money though just let the run bad wash over you. I'm like 8BI below EV over 27k hands and for a lot of that it meant I was down money but I just lol'd and thought I'm happy I don't play 200nl and have to deal with actual money swings.

The rake at 2nl is actually probably the best until you get to 50nl (guesstimating) it certainly gets worse at 5nl and worse at 10nl.

#MoanItIn

Moaning it in seems to have worked. I've been on a bit of a heater since my last update. I think the good results are mostly just due to variance, but I've also spent more time playing after 9pm and at weekends instead of during daylight hours during the week. The games on Sunday nights in particular feel completely different to Wednesday afternoons.
My shots at 5NLz and 10NLz have gone even better than expected. Those games seem to suit my playing style better than the lowest stake, where the weird fish always confuse me into making bad calls or bad bluffs. I do not think these winrates are sustainable, but it's been a fun couple of weeks.





Overall in 46,500 hands since August, I've got an EV of 5bb/100. (Although the actual bb/100 is <2). Hopefully the Christmas period will be good to me and I can become a reg at 10NLz, or even take shots at 16NLz.

Meanwhile, I'm losing quite badly in tournaments. #StupidGame.

Oh hai . Sub'd!

Nice to see you have a bit of an upswing. It's funny that I do actually think you're someone who whilst you won't benefit from moving up in terms of a bb winrate because 2nlz is much softer you probably are less affected by it than by others who moving up to a new pool can kill off their game plan a bit.

Saw you 1 tabling just before, had you as 58/50 so marked you down as an aggro whale.

I guess it's time for the Penguin Review of the Year, but I'm feeling very frustrated about poker right now, so I'll keep it fairly brief.

Tournaments on Unibet were disastrous and I really hated playing them. The runbad was so constant that I developed a Pavlovian response to opening the client. Every time I pressed the register button for a satty, my mouth would start watering in anticipation of vomiting all over myself. Profitable days were very infrequent, as the clowns and lemmings continued to find new and original ways of busting me with garbage hands.



I still have 850 euros worth of satty tickets, but right now I'd gladly swap them for 38 actual pounds and a get out of jail card.

When I last posted in this thread, I was in the middle of a pleasant 6000 hand heater on the cash tables, and I was looking forward to crushing all the casual players over Christmas. Unfortunately, my latest shots at 10NLz and 5NLz didn't go so well, although the games felt reeeeeally soft in the run up to NYE. I have developed an amazing ability to get dealt AK on the button when a 38/27/20 lagfish in the BB has aces.

Here's the cashgame graph from August to Dec 31st 2018 in big blinds:


The graph was even spikier in dollar terms, as I took shots at 5NLz and 10NLz more or less at random in this sample:


The stake breakdown reveals that I ran above EV at 5NLz, but below EV at 10NLz, and way below EV at 2NLz, as already mentioned in the thread. I think an EV of about 4.5bb/100 at all 3 limits would be about right for me in the longer term. I could probably achieve >5bb if I do some actual studying.


Running at less than 50% of EV is never much fun. All in all, it's been a disappointing run. Much of the "missing" profit was in pots where I got all in pre. I'm gonna have to learn how to win races in 2019, because it's incredibly hard to make money when you flip as badly as I do.


(My Average all in equity pre-flop was 56%, fact fans).

The last significant pot that I played in 2018 was another typical set-up. I should probably just start folding pre with kings. I never ****ing win!



I did a bit of player pool analysis yesterday (I made some aliases of high volume and winning players) to get a better idea of the tendencies of regs, but my analysis has been inconclusive. I'll have to dig a bit deeper to see if I should be playing looser/tighter or more/less aggressive against them. On the surface it seems the nits do really well at 2NLz, but the LAGs are crushing 5NLz, but I'll have to delve into some hand histories to confirm.

I just played my first session of 2019 and of course it was a disaster. The fourth hand I played was a cold 4-bet with AA in CO v MP and he ended up stacking me with Q9s, like ya do. If nonsense like that continues I'll probably take another decent break from the game (like I did a year ago). As usual, I haven't got any concrete plans for the year. I'll probably just keep trying to #MoanItIn, even though it hasn't worked for 6 months.

I hope readers had a better Christmas on the tables than I did, and that you're happy and healthy in 2019. If any of you have a PG&C thread I haven't posted in, let me know and I'll subscribe.

Cheers all!

Runbad sucks but study and volume is the key not a break! If I was you I'd just work my way through those tickets as quickly as possible just turn it into cash and never have to play satties again.

gl with 2019.

Runbad is temporary, sir. Stay up! Like MMSS said, only thing we can control is how much we play and how well we play. Results will take care of themselves eventually. GL!!

mate feel ya pain.... Shotted 5NL after seemingly and feeling like the runbad or variance was over at 2NL as had been and seen myself holding in allin spots and the strong hands holding up all the way to the river in none allin spots... Then in one.day across 3 sessions I dropped 25Bis or 2500bbs lol which ever prefer looking at..... so I drop back.... Hit up a session of 2NL run 2k hands 9bb/100 (after the last 500 hands being a bit rough but hey ... We started it off well... fire up the 2nd session and we end up -5.5bi and I lost count in that 3k hands how often I ran into sets or runner runners that I had to literally try and laugh about it with a other player at one of the reg tables I sort of somehow know through a similar group we are in on discord...

micros does feel like bingo poker at times..... gotta stay tough!!!!!or Tougher lol

the 25bi includes some 2nl as had dropped down in the last session

Hey Arty, I came looking for you here cos I saw you at the tables today, only one hand, but it reminded me of how much help you have been and how much value you provide.

Anyway, just wanted to drop in to say that. Best of luck in your goals for 2019!

Oh, hi darchas. I don't know anyone's usernames, so I hope I didn't tell you to GFY! I have a habit of spewing in the chatbox when I'm running badly.
This year has started pretty badly. Down about 5 BI in my first 2500 hands. #TiltedPenguin

5 buy ins isn't that bad . Know it will get better. More volume always helps, non-tilted volume that is.

I spew positive words in the chat when I'm tilted lol.

Unlucky. It can be tough when not playing loads of hands. Any loss or downswing seems magnified. That's my experience anyway!

Hello Penguin fans!

I've not been playing much recently. I took two weeks away from poker near the start of the month, after having a #SessionFromHell where I basically lost all of my meagre winnings from January. The final straw was losing in a 4-bet pot with QQ<JT on 772.



That left my Zoom graph for 2019 looking like this:

I haven't been in the mood to play any more cash since then, but some of my Unibet satty tickets were getting close to expiring, so last Saturday I late-regged a 50 euro UK tour final, and a UO50. 45 minutes later, I'd won a UO250 ticket, and after 90 minutes, I'd made a profit of 650 euros. #SkillGame




It's only taken me about two years to qualify! I'm not a massive fan of Milton Keynes (or even leaving the house, tbh), but I guess I'll be there in March for the UK Tour event. I'm not really looking forward to the actual tournament, but it will be nice to meet a few buddies there like Doke, Simpson, Lappin and Andy Hills, who has been absolutely crushing live poker again this year. Hopefully he can teach me how to win flips.

Comical low-volume timbey graph for this year:


I played a couple more 50 euro games tonight and bricked them, but I still have about 800 euros of tickets. #PingItUp
Since I'm not playing much, I have more time to make silly animated cartoons, and you can find those on my twitter.

****ity bye!