Quote:
Originally Posted by ohsnapzbrah
Gotta call imo. 2 combos of 98, only one is suited. 99 probably raised preflop at a good frequency and players aren't good at raising quads. 1 combo of Q9s. Also, 98 not raising flop so multiway is suspect. 3 combos of 33, and our hand is fairly underrepped.
We need 37% equity to call the river raise as played
Here are a few plausible scenarios:
21% equity vs Range 1: 99, Q9s, Q9o, 98s, 98o, 93s, 33
38% equity vs Range 2: 99, Q9s, Q9o, 98s, 98o, 93s, 33, A
5
42% equity vs Range 3: 99, Q9s, Q9o, 98s, 98o, 93s, 33, A
5
, A
9o
Thanks for the input. It's definitely a close spot. My first inclination was to call, turn seems like the perfect card to get action, and just flatting the turn my range should still be pretty wide so I think should probably be betting closer to 100 OTR expecting to get called by flushs.
Ultimately the factors that swayed me towards folding:
-river raises tend to be weighted towards the nuts
-river overbets tend to be weighted towards the nuts
-there was no aggressive metagame dynamics
-200bb is a huge raise at this stake especially in a limped pot
Overall interesting hand where pretty much nobody else ever folds but I feel like I dodged a mini cooler by making the nittiest play I can remember.
Results: