Annoyed I posted the same hand twice again lol. Anyway.
My flop and turn cbet are around 60/50 so I don't think so, but, maybe he sees something different. He just picked the right time...this time. I don't think xf the bottom of my value range is terrible since I will have some bigger overpairs that def xc/xshove. I think he was just proud of himself he made me fold lol.
yeah definitely fishy with the showing the 'bluff'. Likely just doing random stuff without much strat
I think it's rare people actually put much thought into what they do at the tables in the games I play in. Most are just recreational players with decent stats.
I had an interesting session this am. Pretty sure I lost, and tilted a bit, but, thats besides the point. In retrospect, my session brought a question to mind regarding raise and bet sizes as they relate to the elasticity of our opponents ranges. Normally, 3x is my standard in every position unless there are hyper aggro 3 bettors behind me. I'm used to playing with players who rock basic 23/19/7-10 stats. This morning when I realized there were several active whales, I adjusted my pre sizing and went 5x with everything in my opening range. Granted this is bound to have some swings but, when it comes to inelastic preflop calling ranges, is this a good adjustment? Also, if I do this, how, if at all should I adjust my opening range? Some may disagree, but, I think making it a standard 3x with premium hands while 65/30s sit at the table is missing value. I'm just wondering if I can open that size with the rest of my range, as well?
My problem with heads up is that I'm awful at it, there is a kind of pride not to want to leave the table when it breaks and I can end up donating stacks by stacking off too light.
My problem with heads up is that I'm awful at it, there is a kind of pride not to want to leave the table when it breaks and I can end up donating stacks by stacking off too light.
Yeah, you can easily level yourself into thinking people are loosening up post flop, when in reality, I don't think that's the case with most players. HU is the ultimate in mental-game warfare, I used to play quite a bit, esp in local tournaments.
UTG raises to 2.4 BB, MP raises to 3.8 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, BTN calls 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG raises to 60 BB, MP raises to 87.4 BB and is all-in, Hero raises to 232.6 BB and is all-in, fold, UTG calls 163.4 BB and is all-in
Flop:(547.6 BB, 3 players) 2 4 7
Turn:(547.6 BB, 3 players) 8
River:(547.6 BB, 3 players) T
Spoiler:
Hero shows Q Q (One Pair, Queens)
Main Pot [275.6 BB]: (Pre 54%, Flop 60%, Turn 62%)
Side Pot#1 [272 BB]: (Pre 62%, Flop 78%, Turn 88%)
UTG shows K A (High Card, Ace)
Main Pot [275.6 BB]: (Pre 32%, Flop 19%, Turn 12%)
Side Pot#1 [272 BB]: (Pre 38%, Flop 22%, Turn 12%)
MP shows 3 A (High Card, Ace)
Main Pot [275.6 BB]: (Pre 13%, Flop 21%, Turn 26%)
Since ACR is down at for the time being, I thought doing some self-evaluation of spots would be good. I posted this in the uNL stats thread, but, thought maybe I can get some decent feedback here, as well.
My results this year when calling 2b is BE, not sure what that means. When calling 3b's I am losing quite a bit. Is this supposed to happen because of the inherent range disadvantage?
In ~150k hands this year, I've flatted 3b 1609/3557 times when RFI. Surprise, surprise, I'm getting 3b a whopping 2.5 % of the time lol.
Flat 2bet winrates depend which position you’re doing it from. You ideally want a positive winrate for flatting 2bets in every position except from the blinds.
When you flat 3bets you are supposed to be “losing”. if you folded to every 3bet, your winrate when facing 3bets would be -3bb per hand (or whatever your open size is). So if you call and have a winrate if -2bb, then you’ve gained 1bb more than if you just folded.
I’m interested to see how you calculated the amount of times you get 3bet ...that seems very low
Makes sense, only I am losing a lot more than that lol. Considering how little people actually 3b, it may be better to just fold more.
It's in the graphic how I filtered which does not account for the times where I RFI, got 3b and faced a cold 4b. It filters for when I RFI and had the opportunity to 4b facing a 3b.
The graphic tells us how many times you had an opportunity to 4bet which means nothing WRT population 3bet % because you could’ve played 4,000 hands or 20,000
Edit: Oh wait, gotta filter for opportunities to open the pot...my bad.
Edit#2: Out of 81,823 opportunities to open the pot, I opened 27.47. I RFI 22,475 times, so that means I had the opportunity to 4b facing a 3b, 3,557/22,475 = 15.8%.
Last edited by Flpmethntsdlr; 04-25-2018 at 11:22 AM.
You don’t know how the ranges are constructed. Is it AA and 72o? Or more linear? Just play as if you were playing vs a tough opponent and the chips will come your way.
Remember that 16% is shared by all the players and will fluctuate by position. Do you get 3bet 16% of the time from UTG? That means each player is roughly 3betting 3%. And so on and so forth.
I would say 16% is roughly normal from my own experience and nothing to make huge exploits for.
Stat analysis is a waste of time once you’re beyond playing 50/10 VPIP/PFR.
Maybe use the leakbuster lol? As long as nothing’s too out of whack you can’t really analyse any more.
Yeah, I try to play every hand as best I can and try not to over-adjust one way or another. I do, however, want to try to find spots where I can improve by making minor adjustments, like defending/folding a few % more, cb a few % more, etc. That's why I want to start doing more specific filter stat analyses and thought 3b defense is a good place to start since the majority of mistakes, in my opinion, come in 3bp. This year, I'm losing -1.31 bb/hand and I think that's something that can be improved upon.