Many thanks to Chaz for joining me for 2 excellent sessions of monkey poker this past weekend. My P&L in drunken 1/2 stands at $600, about half of which I can actually remember. A big FU to any nit at the tables at Harrah's or Ballys this weekend who refused to participate. I'm gonna need at least one more monkey poker session before I get out of this town, probably Saturday or Sunday.

Just read through this thread and started subscribing to it. Best of luck on the second half of the year, time to start binking some tourneys!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Drunk on my last night in Vegas. This trip was a continuation of the themes I've posted about all year-- I win at gambling but not at poker tournaments.

I bricked every tournament in sight, but as chazdazzle can attest, I turned $200 into $4700 at the dice tables at Main Street Station to get close to even on the trip.

Signed a lease for an apartment in Redwood City, CA starting July 14. So excited for the Bay Area cash games. We are starting at 5/10 and hopefully going up from there

Wow sick run at the tables. Keep at the tournies youre probably on the wrong side of variance ATM. Gl!

Post 15: June 3-21
Vegas Write-Up Part 1

Despite getting completely rocked in my main game of tournament poker, I had a blast in Vegas and wouldn’t trade it for the world. By the time I got back to Chicago I felt like Morgan Freeman at the end of Shawshank; I completely forgot what life was like outside of Vegas. I’m still adjusting to the real world. I also had the surreal experience of taking the redeye from Vegas to DC to tell my boss I was quitting my job; I will (temporarily) be a free agent in a few weeks.

I’ll make this first Vegas post just about some bullet point reflections from the WSOP/things I plan to do different in 2018. Next post will be a tourney-by-tourney recap of all everything I whiffed (I promise, easy on the bad beat stories), and then likely multiple posts recapping the many crazy hands I played in my 18 days in Vegas.

--First of all, great thanks to ChazDazzle who was the best travel companion I could have asked for and an absolute wizard of monkey poker. Already can’t wait to hit up WSOP 2018.

--Most disappointing part of the trip was that competition was significantly tougher than expected. I think I ran pretty bad on table draws, but still, the level of competition I faced at $400-1500 buyin MTTs was higher than I was accustomed to or expecting. I’m playing for the money, not glory, so in 2018 I might do 1 week @ WSOP and 1 week @ some circuit event or HPT, rather than 2 weeks at WSOP. More details on this when I write up individual tournaments.

--Expanding on that last point, man, cash game lineups are rough in Vegas in the summer. I mostly played 2/5, and by the end of the trip I had thoughts like “well, the 4 seat limps in early position sometimes, so maybe this game is worth staying in”, whereas in Chicago I often think “well, only 2 people called my 4x preflop raise, so maybe it’s time to call it a night”. I can recall only 2 2/5+ games I played all month that were truly worthwhile, one a late night session at the Rio and one midday session at Planet Hollywood. I might just embargo cash games at the 2018 WSOP. (Having said all that, I ran very well in cash and finished solidly up).

--Didn’t try nearly as many new restaurants as I would have liked, but at least finally made it to Lotus of Siam (worth the hype, crispy rice FTW) and Pizza Rock (sick value; me and ChazDazzle had a great lunch including beers for $31 total between the two of us). I tried to go to SW my last night in town but apparently you can’t use Wynn comps there. It’s top of my list for next time in town and I’m eager to compare it to Cut.

Gambling Results (Since Last Update / YTD)

Some unsolicited advice from your uncle JoeC: people who say that poker players should avoid leaks like sports betting and pit gambling are FOS. In reality, it is the opposite; sports bettors and craps degens need to avoid the poker room like the plague, as it is a huge leak.

Poker (-$10,228 / -$11,376)
*Live Tournament (-$11,330 / -$14,067)
*Live Cash (+$1,102 / +$3,307) -- I'm over the 300BB threshold I set for myself to play 5/10, and I plan on laying off cash to keep it that way until I get to the Bay Area. Super excited for the 5/10 at Lucky Chances and M8trix.
*Online Tournament ($0 / -$565)
*Online Cash ($0 / -$61)

Algo Trading (+$2,354 / +$31,392)

Sports Betting (+$741 / +$10,476) -- the $460 I won betting on the Penguins to win game 6 is the sweetest money I'll win all year.

Blackjack ($0 / -$510)

Degenning other casino games (+$4,680 / +$8,977)

Total -$2,453 / +$38,359

Thanks guys, support really means a lot to me!

Although I do think I'm probably on the wrong side of variance, I also think there are some easily fixable leaks in my MTT game that I'm going to try to fix over the next month or so while I'm playing less.

Post 16: June 22-July 5
Vegas Write-Up Part 2

This post will be a bullet-by-bullet account of all the tournaments I busted (and 1 I cashed) in Vegas this summer. Before we get to that one, as a life update, my last day of work will be July 13th and I have off until August 28th when I start my new job. I can’t believe I’m doing this but a buddy (who is a 2+2er, but not sure yet that he wants to be outed here) talked me into another Vegas trip July 22-27. Apart from that, I’d like to get in some time in NYC, LA, and San Diego before moving to Redwood City, CA around the end of July. Full agenda TBD.

Here’s what 18 days at the WSOP looks like. I’m gonna save the ~5 or so most interesting hands for a separate post.

May 31 – Get in around 6:00, jump into the $575 nightly megasatellite at 8:00. Only gets 14 runners, so winner gets $5k in lammers and 2nd gets around $2k. Field is pretty soft—not a lot of whales but mostly awful regs. Structure sucks. At one point I get in JJ vs 55 for ~55 BBs in a pot that would have given me a significant chip lead, but can’t hold. Bust with about 8 runners left.

June 1 – Play a few SNGs in the $125-275 range at the Rio. I used to think these were the softest games at the WSOP, but they were significantly less so this year. Still very beatable, but not as many dudes raise-folding for 9 BBs. I brick them all. Then I go play the $575 mega again. This time there are only 11 runners. I spin up a big stack, then with 5 left I hero 3 streets (detailed hand review later) with 2nd pair and win the pot for about 75% of the chips in play. 3 handed with a massive chiplead, I get a button shove and SB call, wake up with QQ in the BB, and hold for a neat $5k score.

June 2 – Colossus flight 1A. First hand (after I folded) a rec player open mucks a set of 3s on the turn for some unknown reason, one of the strangest things I’ve ever seen at the poker table. Second hand, same rec player 3bets be when I have 99, I call and flop a set, and he never stops betting, so I get almost a full double right off the bat. I run my 5k stack up to a high of about 35k. Close to the bubble, I’m tightening up a bit because I’d love to get my first WSOP cash. With 450 left and 414 cashing, a reg I’ve been battling with opens UTG+2, and though I hate the idea of bubbling, I’m more than happy to ship 16 BBs from the BB with TT. He tanks, makes a (IMO) terrible call with 55 and gets there. Bleh.

June 3 – Colossus flights 1C and 1D, I bust both pretty early due to some bad all-in luck.

June 4 – Colossus flight 1E. I bust level 5 when I shove 14 BBs from the BU over a CO open. Me 98hh, him AQcc, I don’t get there. At night I then go play a $125 SNG. I get heads up with a big chip lead and offer the other guy $285 to chop (which was the correct ICM figure)—in reality this is probably pretty generous since I know push/fold ranges and have a big HU advantage vs a random in a $125 Rio SNG. He countered with an offer of $400, I of course said GTFO, and busted him 2 hands later all in preflop my T6ss vs his A5o.

June 5 – MSPT $1100 day 1A. Lose some pots (1 of them where I got 4bet while holding JJ I’ll detail in a later post) and grind my 15k start stack down to 9200 at the 100/200/25 level. 1 EP limper (as I recall, limper seemed pretty good and aggressive so was kinda surprised to see him limp) and I make it 650 w AKhh in MP. CO, BB, and limper call. K84dd, I bet 1400, BB call, limper makes it 4200. **** me this guy always has 44 in this spot but I can’t get off this hand. Honestly if the flop was rainbow rather than a diamond draw I might be able to fold here (or maybe not cbet), but as it stands I have to go with it. I shove, and it turns out I was wrong he has 88 not 44, GG. After this I played cash rest of the day, including a 2/5 session at Bellagio with William Kassouf’s friend during which Kassouf the legend was nice enough to stop by the table and pose for a picture. I’ve got the monkey nuts!!

June 6 – WSOP $1500 NL. Although I feel I ran pretty bad on table draws all summer, this one was definitely the worst. Jonathan Tamayo + 6 other pros + 1 rec who wasn’t even really all that bad. Late regged and busted about 90 mins in after going 0/2 in flips.

June 7 – Play 5 Rio SNGs—brick the first 4 and chop the 5th.

June 8 – Mostly play cash but fire in one $275 SNG where I run the 1500 start stack to 5300, then repeatedly get owned by a 20something Russian girl in BvB battles. IIRC busted shoving 20 BBs over her button open with KQs and running into her AKo.

June 9 -- $400 Wynn tournament. Fire 2 bullets and bust both quickly, the 2nd one on a hand I’ll review later. Tables were amazing—as usual I love the Wynn. On my first table, I played with my favorite opponent of the summer, a 55-60 year old guy who, I gotta be honest, was a stark raving lunatic. He talked to himself constantly. I was sitting next to him and humored him a bit and he of course warmed up to me and started talking my ear off. He seemed to be connected in Hollywood. At one point he said “For my money, John Phillips is the funniest man alive”. Later, the waitress came by for cocktail orders and he said “I’ll have a virgin John Phillips—that’s soda water, pineapple juice, and orange juice”. Alright, this gentleman certainly likes John Phillips, whoever that is. In fact, as the tournament wore on, and my new friend kept talking incessantly, it became apparent that he was, in fact, John Phillips (name changed to protect the innocent; I don’t feel great about outing crazy fish. However, he told me about a low-budget movie he produced, I googled the trailer, it looks awful to the point of being hilarious, so a part of me wants to out him just so I can share that with the world). As I busted the tournament, he told me I have a lifetime invite to John Phillips Studios in LA, so I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.

June 10 – WSOP Millionaire Maker. Another really rough table draw to start the day. My 7500 start stack is ground down to 6k when I get a table change and finally get the kind of table draw I was hoping to get all summer, including a 60ish dude with the ace of spades tattooed on his forearm throwing a party with about a 30k stack. I end up busting to that guy on a hand I’ll cover later. After busting I go to the Golden Nugget and fire 3 unsuccessful bullets in their $200 buyin $100k guarantee. Field was LOLsoft, 1st bust hand was super weird, 2nd was an interesting decision, 3rd was a total punt, I probably won’t cover these because LOL $200aments. After this I return to Harrah’s, get inappropriately drunk with ChazDazzle and play the aforementioned great game of Monkey Poker. In for $400 in 1/2 NL, out for $580, which is just fine for me considering I can’t remember half the session.

June 11 – No poker during the day because I had a hockey game to watch at 5:00 and HOLY **** THE PENGUINS WIN THE STANLEY CUP!!! Afterwards, head to Bally’s for a shorter, somewhat more sober session of Monkey Poker and stack about $400 profit.
June 12 – day off

June 13 – Played the $200 satellite to the Wynn $1100 and bust on a somewhat interesting hand I may post later. Then go take a shot at Venetian 5/10 with a minbuy of $800. First hand is 6 handed with a straddle, UTG $60, I call UTG+1 KQss, CO $250, I shove, he calls, has AJhh and holds. In general I think these games play exploitably aggressively, and I love to backraise 3 betters, but I dunno how I feel about this particular one since I’m short enough to lack much fold equity, and only have KQs (my favorite hands to make this move with are AQss and TT). Oh well.

June 14 – Winning 2/5 cash session, bust a $130 turbo at Planet Hollywood, bust the nightly Aria $240 on the single most absurd hand I played all summer, to be covered later.

June 15 – Wynn $1100. I run the 20k start stack to 54k at dinner break. First hand back, small and big blind are both absent and we are playing 500/1000/100. I make it 2500 in the HJ with AJo. CO makes it 7500; he’s a 50something European guy who doesn’t seem like a nit, but otherwise I lack reads on him. I reason that since my 2500 looks a lot like a total steal on absent blinds he may be trying to F with me, and shove for 36k effective. He snaps with AKo and holds. Still not sure how I feel about this one—in the moment I felt like an ******* and figured rec players have it a lot when 3betting, even in weird spots. In retrospect I think it’s pretty close between shove/fold.

June 16 – Wynn $1100 2nd bullet. Again a mostly suboptimal table draw. Just from the names I was able to snoop from people’s registration cards, over $1mm in Hendon Mob cashes at the table to start. After grinding down the 20k start stack to 12k, I go on a run, get some value from overplayed hands, and run it up to 59k at dinner break. By this point the table draw is absolute murder and my plan is to nit it up for the rest of the night. I’m sitting on 64k at 600/1200/200, and we are 2 tables away from breaking, but I run into an interesting hand and end up getting stacked by a guy I’d been battling with all day (hand to be analyzed in next post).

June 17 – WSOP $1500. Amazing, unreal table draw. It includes one guy with >$500k in Hendon cashes who is sponsored by the HPT who I’d never played with before; it takes about 15 minutes for me to find out he’s a complete live one. In no time I’ve run the 7500 start stack to 16k and am close to table captain status, other than one 20something girl who’s playing incredibly spazzy with a huge stack, who I consider a prime target to double against. Alas, at 100/200/25 I call a button squeeze for 25 BBs with AQhh, he shows K7o and gets there. Then a pretty amazing hand to bust my last 9k – UTG 400, UTG+1 calls, I make it 1600 in MP with AA. Folded to UTG+1 who tanks, asks “how deep are you?” then makes a call. Q55cc (I have Ac) flop checks around, turn is an offsuit 6, I bet 2100, he shoves, I snap, he has 54hh. I guess 9k was deep enough to hunt for trips. Later that night, I regroup and play a $125 nightly at Binion’s with ChazDazzle; I bust pretty early but CD makes it to 3 off the money before making a standard short-stacked shove and running into AJ.

Gambling Results (Since Last Update / YTD)


Poker ($0 / -$11,376) – Likely gonna get back on the horse either Sunday the 14th at Borgata, or sometime this coming Sunday-Wednesday when I’ll be home in Pittsburgh.
*Live Tournament ($0 / -$14,067)
*Live Cash ($0 / +$3,307)
*Online Tournament ($0 / -$565)
*Online Cash ($0 / -$61)

Algo Trading (-$1,022 / +$30,370)

Sports Betting (-$150 / +$10,326)

Blackjack ($0 / -$510)

Degenning other casino games ($0 / +$8,977)

Total -$1,172 / +$37,187 – After making a hair over $40k in Q1, I finish Q2 down slightly. Let’s ramp the rungood back up in July and beyond!

Post 16: July 6-August 10
Vegas Write-Up Part 3

Well, life has been hectic and I unfortunately haven’t had the chance to update recently. Since the last update, I quit my job on 7/13, traveled to Pittsburgh, New York, Jersey Shore, LA, San Diego, and Vegas, then settled in my new home in the Bay Area. I bought a car, rekindled my golf game, and discovered a bunch of new (to me) parts of California I’ve really enjoyed. Also, to do some Hellmuthian name dropping, I won a prop bet vs. Bill Perkins, had a few too many drinks with Limon at Commerce, and took a shot at 2/4 PLO to get on Joe Ingram’s stream. Will write up at least 1 post on all of this but want to close out my Vegas recap first.

Up next for me – I start my new job in 17 days. Until then I kind of don’t want to do anything mentally rigorous other than poker. I’ll probably spend my time playing golf/hiking all day (if anyone has recs for where to go in Bay Area for either of these hit me up), then playing cash at Lucky Chances/M8trix/Bay 101 when it gets dark. Oh and I’m firing in Bay 101’s $550 tournament at 9 AM tomorrow. Odd time to start a tourney; could make for a soft field?

Anyway here are all my favorite hands from Vegas this summer!

Hands

HAND 1

This is from the $575 nightly mega at Rio on 6/1. The WSOP hasn’t really gotten into full swing yet and there are only 11 runners. Starting stacks are 4k and therefore only 44k chips in play. To start the hand I have 15k and villain barely covers, so we are playing for about 70% of the chips in the entire tournament. First place gets $5k, second $500 third nothing, so in my book that means ICM isn’t really a concern. We are at 200/400/50.

PREFLOP: 5 handed. UTG limps, folded to me in the BB I check 87o.

Villain has been very splashy. He just simply can’t find the check button. I’m ready to gamble here.

FLOP (1,250): A83dd (I have no diamond). Villain 700, I call.

TURN (2,650): offsuit 9. Villain bets 2600, I call.

Here’s where the hand gets a bit non-standard. IMO one key to exploitative play vs LAGs who bet nonstop is to decide early on whether you’re going with the hand. I remember I actually tanked the flop for a bit, thinking that there’s a great chance I’d have to call off 3 streets with a pair of 8s and that I needed to determine, immediately, whether or not I’m comfortable with that. The 9 turn is not the nut best for me, but is also not a disaster. He took a bunch of As out of his range by limping preflop, and his big bet on the turn is pretty polarizing. At this point I’m praying for a good river; if it’s a K through T I’m probably going to have to sigh/fold.

RIVER (7,850): offsuit A. Villain goes all in for 10,300 effective, I call and win.

That is a pretty damn nice river. In-game I tanked for a bit (as is natural for a mid stakes player contemplating a call for $3k in equity), but the more I think about it this is a pretty easy call. Villain said after the hand “I thought you had an 8 and tried to get you to fold it”; do not bluff the station sir. As I mentioned earlier I went on to win the mega for $5k.

HAND 2

Wynn $400 from June 9th. This is where being a calling station starts to go wrong. Blinds are 100/200 pre-ante, I have 17k and villain covers.

PREFLOP: I make it 550 UTG+1 with AA, folds to villain who makes it 1850 in BB, I make it 4300 and he calls.

FLOP (8,700): KQThh (I have no H), checks around

TURN (8,700): K which brings 2nd flush draw. Villain 4,000, I call

RIVER (16,700): Offsuit T. Villain shoves for 8,700 effective, I call, villain has QQ.

Both me and villain had been pretty active before the hand. Still, to win this hand I need to have villain bluffing me with JJ or 99 or something (or maybe air? I 4bet pretty small). In a $400 Wynn tournament, that seems pretty unlikely in retrospect. I think I can fold this river. I also think bet/calling the flop would have been fine.

HAND 3
WSOP Millionaire Maker on June 10th ($1500). Just got moved to a great table, but have already ground stack down to 5500 off a start of 7500. We are at 100/200/25.

PREFLOP: UTG+1 450, HJ call, I call BB K5o.

UTG+1 seems like a competent pro. HJ is a whale (with the Ace of spades tattooed on his forearm!). I think I was defending my BB way too wide this summer. I remember thinking in the moment that I’d defend K5o vs. UTG+1 no matter what; I now think this is stupid. Having said that, I think the presence of Mr. Ace of Spades in the hand shifts this back to a clear call.

FLOP (1,700): 532ss. UTG+1 bets 900, HJ calls, I shove 5,050, UTG+1 quickly folds, HJ goes in the tank and calls with 66 and holds.

Probably the thinnest value shove I made all summer. Looking back, its entirely possible that UTG+1s range here is too strong to shove on. In game, I was thinking I could pull off a combo value/bluff shove; get UTG+1 to fold better and whale to call with worse. Given what I’d seen of villain’s play I’m shocked he even tanked with 66; I would not have been surprised to see a tank-call with A2.

HAND 4
Aria $240 nightly on June 14th. Pretty tough table considering the stakes. 12k effective at 200/400/50.

PREFLOP: UTG 1k, 2 callers, I call BB with 32ss.

Again, may have been a bit loose on the BB defend. The PFR and one of the callers seemed fishy which makes me feel a lot better about it.

FLOP (4,650): K97ss, checks around.

TURN (4,650): offsuit 7. I lead for 2k, LJ (who called preflop) makes it 5k, I call.

First of all, the 7 is probably my favorite card in the deck other than a spade, since I can rep way more 7s than anyone else. Pretty clear lead with the nut low, although I don’t know if I love my sizing. If I had to do it again, I’d probably lead 2800 or so. When the LJ (who seems like a rec player, sort of calling station) makes it 5k, I am pretty sure he has trips or better. The math says I need a 19.5% chance or better to make my hand to call here; in reality I have a 20.5% chance of making a flush (of course didn’t know these numbers exactly in-game but had a pretty good idea of where they stood). The question becomes whether I have implied pot odds or reverse implied pot odds. I decided it was a fairly clear call, since the chances of me getting my last 6k in with flush vs. trips were higher than me getting it in flush vs. boat. I just don’t think this particular villain was capable of laying down trips for another 6k on the river. One last note—if I make a flush I 100% need to open shove the river to avoid the possibility of him checking behind trips.

RIVER (14,650): 5 of spades. I shove 6k, he calls and shows 55 for the win.

What the actual ****??? What an insane turn raise, what an insane river. What a sign from the gods that it simply wasn’t my year. One of the most inexplicable hands I’ve ever played.

HAND 5

Wynn $1100. Nut worst table draw but I keep making hands and have run the 20k start stack to 64k. I complain about the table on dinner break, and get some advice from a buddy with $1.3mm in career cashes that ABC poker still gets the money and it’s OK to be a nit when facing a tough table. We are at 600/1200/200.

PREFLOP: UTG raises to 2500, I call LJ AQo, button calls, BB calls.

UTG is a LAGgy good player who I’ve been tangling with all day, and I think I’ve won every significant pot we’ve played. Button is a good player who’s slightly on the LAGgy side but not ridiculously so. BB is a rec player who plays pretty well. I’ve been making a ton of hands on her all day and playing them fast, so she probably thinks I’m picking on her. After I went home, I kicked around the idea that AQo might actually be a fold in this spot if our plan is to play non-standardly tight. Looking back, I think I still have to call in the LJ but in an earlier position this is a fold I can make.

FLOP (12,400): Q98dd. Checked to me, I bet 6500. BB calls. UTG makes it 17k. I shove for ~61k total, BB folds, UTG calls with 88 and holds.

Obviously I felt like **** right after this, getting in a 53BB (above average) stack nearly drawing dead vs. a good player in a non-cooler situation. However I think I played this one fine. I was not scared of BB’s call at all since I know she’s probably looking to play sheriff against me. UTG’s check with bottom set on a very coordinated board seems pretty bad to me. I was expecting to mostly flip against pair/draw hands. Oh well.

Gambling Results (Since Last Update / YTD)
Poker (+$1,242 / -$10,134)
*Live Tournament (-$643 / -$14,710)
*Live Cash (+$1,900 / +$5,207) – This happened in one night at Commerce where I played some 5/10 and then some drunken 2/5. Good lord were those games soft, especially the 2/5. Given that I’m playing any game I’ve won more than 300 BBs in, I’m gonna attack the 5/10 here and I’m only 1 winning session away from a shot at 10/20.
*Online Tournament ($0 / -$565)
*Online Cash (-$15 / -$76)

Algo Trading (-$11,945 / +$18,425) – went tits up on a trade I had big size on. My model really loves going long S&P futures for next week, so any readers of this can sweat along in real time for next week’s P&L.

Sports Betting (+$447 / +$10,773)

Blackjack ($0 / -$510)

Degenning other casino games (+$183 / +$9,160)

Total -$10,073 / +$27,714 – I shorted myself $600 on the YTD total last time; found money!

Also forgot to mention -- another thing making me extremely happy is that we are only 3 weeks away from football season. I'll post all $500+ bets I make to the blog. Good chance I fire in for Stanford season tickets.

The 32s hand is so lol. Did you get your Bill Perkins spoils in bitcoin?

Damn that's a heavy loss on the algo trading hopefully that rebounds. Regarding the poker, the k5o call in the BB is probably too loose

LOL I still have to tweet him to get my $200. Was considering seeing if he wants to let me parlay on a weight loss prop.

Post 21: August 11-16
GTO or Exploitative?

I missed my alarm and didn’t get up on time for the Bay 101 $550 on Saturday, but have played 4 tournaments in the ~$200 buyin range since then (2 at M8trix, 1 each at Oaks and Lucky Chances). I chopped the Tuesday morning Lucky Chances tourney for $1595 then took 6th in the M8trix Tuesday night for $500 so it’s been a pretty solid gambling week, even before accounting for the fact I sold off my S&P futures position last night before one of the biggest drops of the year.

The Bay Area tournaments are amazingly soft, but structures suck. Once my job starts, I may be judicious and only play $300+ buyins. I haven’t played any cash games this week—it’s been tougher to find 5/10 action than I was expecting.

Couple random thoughts on what I’ve been up to recently:

*Really enjoyed both the poker action and everything else in LA when I traveled there. Every poker player should go to Commerce. LA is definitely a city I could see myself living in.

*For the first time, on my July trip to Vegas I started to get a little bored of the place. At one point my buddy asked “What can we do here other than drink or gamble?” and I came up pretty empty. Drinking in Vegas is clearly fun but not better than here in California. I’m getting bored quicker and quicker gambling in games where I don’t have an edge (exception of sports betting). So I really don’t know; maybe Vegas trips for now are only for big poker tournaments and big football weekends? Or maybe I should get good at counting cards and go to Vegas a bunch?

*Buying a car is such a terrible, arduous process. I was almost about to buy a 2015 Toyota RAV4 with 15k miles but the dealer (after much negotiation) said they couldn’t let it go for less than $20,400. At this point I realized I could get a similarly equipped new one for $23,200 (again, after a ton of annoying negotiation) so made the clear move to do that instead. One time can we please just get start riding in automated Ubers before I have to buy another car?

*Start work in 11 days. I’m sure I’ll learn a lot from the new job but I’m a lot less excited about it than I thought I would be. I might be coming to the end of the line of working in jobs for large corporations. My new company pays bonuses in November; I want to set myself up to potentially leave in November 2018 to pursue something more adventurous – may talk more about this in future posts. Of course, maybe I will end up knocking this job out of the park, or winning the 2018 main event, so this could all be moot.

*Related to the last bullet point, thanks to ChazDazzle for linking me to this awesome post by Curtains: https://gregshahade.wordpress.com/20...ver-had-a-job/. This one really resonated with me. FWIW, I’ve said for years that my “FU number”, where I’ll stop working (outside of startups where I have significant equity) is less than $1mm.

Until I start work I’m gonna play a bunch of more smallish stakes tourneys ($180 at Bay 101 9:30 AM tomorrow)—also will likely go to at least one day of the WSOP Circuit in Sacramento next month. And there’s a small chance I’ll make a day trip to Reno to fire in a huge bet on Mayweather.

Hands
HAND 1

DISCLAIMER: This is a boring hand. As I mentioned before the donkaments I’ve been playing have **** structures and I simply don’t have anything other than push/fold hands to post. The good news is that my competition has very clearly never encountered a decent push/fold chart.

The title of the post refers to this hand. It’s the hand I’ve thought most about this week even though it’s not that interesting on the surface and not a big pot in terms of BBs.

We are in the money of the Tuesday night $160 at M8trix. 7 left, and payouts are 2600/1800/1300/1000/700/500/400. Blinds/antes are 4k/8k/1k, I start the hand with 52k and I’m either 6th out of 7 or very barely 5th.

PREFLOP: Button shoves 39k. SB tanks for 45 seconds or so and calls. I shove BB for 13k more with A7o and SB calls. Button T6dd, SB A9dd, SB holds for the double knockout.

Button is solid and seems like one of the better players at the table. I doubt he’s shoving the actual GTO range with 5 BBs on the button (which I think is >75% of hands without checking) but also is in no way nitting it up. SB seems like a reg and very nitty in many ways. He seems to open pots with correct frequency, but is folding to aggression way too much. His ROI in a M8trix $160 tournament is probably infinite given that many of the players in the field need to have the nuts to raise him.

I actually tanked for a while. On the one hand, folding 6.5 BBs deep holding an ace is ridiculous; I am completely smashing the SBs GTO call range. On the other hand, man is SB a nit. It wouldn’t shock me to see him folding hands like KJo or K9s—maybe even better-- in this spot. SB even got in a needle/unintentional self-own after the hand and said “You have to know when I call there I have something better than A7”.

So WTF do I do? When I get in the tank on spots like this I almost always end up making the play that I consider to be GTO, which is what I did here in calling with a dominated hand. Still, I think if I’m going to keep playing tourneys in the $200 range (and I will; I can’t get enough live tourney action here if I don’t), I want to get more pointed about exploiting the ranges of all the terrible players in these fields. If I played this hand again tomorrow, I’d still make the call, but this is one topic I need to study going forward.

Gambling Results (Since Last Update / YTD)

Poker (+$1,279 / -$8,865)
*Live Tournament (+$1,310 / -$13,400)
*Live Cash ($0 / +$5,207)
*Online Tournament ($0 / -$565)
*Online Cash (-$31 / -$107)

Algo Trading (+$3,769 / +$22,194)

Sports Betting (-$305 / +$10,468)

Blackjack ($0 / -$510)

Degenning other casino games (-$6 / +$9,154)

Total +$4,737 / +$32,441

PS I've been ****ing up the numbering on my posts so I'm actually closer to my goal of 40 this year than I thought.

Chopped the Bay 101 daily for $4550, not a terrible start to the weekend!

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Post 22: August 17-September 6
Paying the Bubble

I’ve played a bunch of tournaments since getting to the Bay Area, been running well and cashing in about 40% of them. One funny situation that’s come up over and over again has been that of paying the bubble, at least giving them their buyin back. The mechanics of it are usually that, in a $200 tournament, $200 is taken out of the 1st place payout to give to the bubble. Fish LOVE this. They assume it will happen every time. And the tournament fields I’ve been playing, in the $160-500 buyin range, are comprised almost totally of fish. How do we handle this? For the most part, I’ve been the ******* denying paying the bubble every time I’ve cashed.

What’s the best thing to do here? First let’s think about it from a pure $EV scenario, and I think there are 3 possibilities to consider: (1) short stacks almost always bubble, so anyone that’s not one of the shortest should oppose paying the bubble. (2) players with above average stacks should oppose paying the bubble. (3) on the bubble, big stacks have a massive advantage, so only the biggest 1-2 stacks should oppose paying the bubble.

I think in a tough tournament, #3 is pretty clearly the case. Anyone who’s not a huge stack should be looking to get off the bubble as quickly as possible. However, in the typical Bay Area tournament where no one knows how to play, I think #2 is probably the truth; big stacks simply don’t know how to take advantage of the bubble to punish middle stacks.

What about what’s good for the game, though? I feel like **** playing hardball with rec players on these bubbles (would feel totally different if playing in a tough tournament). It’d be cool to be part of a poker community where I’m friendly with the other players I play with. At the end of the day, though, there are some spots where paying the bubble is massively –EV for me. And after all, I’m a rec player too. Us rec players are entitled to have our own motivations for playing poker IMO; mine is to play in +EV games and pile up P&L. So at this point, I’m somewhere between option #2 and #3. If I have a decently large stack, I’m going to continue being a dick.

Other updates:

*I joined a homegame that goes off twice a month here in Redwood City. $100 buyin tournament, fun group, good excuse to have a few beers and watch college football on a Saturday night. Players are pretty good and I’m probably not a huge favorite, but that’s not really the point of course. Clearly in this setting I’m paying the bubble no matter what.

*Booked some NFL over/unders!! $800 on Broncos over 8.5 wins to win $1068. $500 on Patriots under 12.5 wins to win $496. $500 on Bears under 5.5 wins to win $532. I’m sure I’ll be going in on a bunch of week 1 bets as well. To kick things off I think I like Chiefs over 19.5 points tomorrow night.

*Couple big tourneys coming up for me, the Bay 101 monthly $550 this Saturday, then the WSOP Circuit $1675 main event 9/23 in Sacramento

Hands

I’m gonna mostly suspend this part of the blog for now, I’m almost exclusively playing bad structure tournaments with hands under 50 BB effective and my level of confidence is pretty high in these situations.

Gambling Results (Since Last Update / YTD)

Poker (+$5,154 / -$3,711)
*Live Tournament (+$4,245 / -$9,155)
*Live Cash ($818 / +$6,025)
*Online Tournament (-$110 / -$675)
*Online Cash (+$201 / +$94)

Algo Trading (-$3,353 / +$18,841)

Sports Betting (-$12 / +$10,456)

Blackjack ($0 / -$510)

Degenning other casino games (-$40 / +$9,114)

Total +$1,749 / +$34,190

One of the most anticipated gambling days of the year. Here's what I've got for week 1 (not looking great so far):

Moneylines
$497 on raiders to win $647
$568 on Redskins to win $579
$560 on lions to win $666

In a $33 FanDuel contest w Cousins, David Johnson, Elliott, Crowder, Garcon, Hooper, Tucker, Bills D

Let's mount some comebacks!!

Lost $230 or so on other small bets I made but still a nice Sunday given results of the above. $992 on Denver ML to win 684 tonight.

I've somehow turned $300 into this much in 40 mins at 2/5 at bay 101

There's got to be a least a grand there. Wp sir

Thanks man was around $2k when I took the pick now back to around $1650. Maniac 3 to my left who covers me, should be an interesting night.

Lulz, I dusted off this stack and finished the session down $219. New rule, we are not posting pics of stacks until we've already gotten up from the table.

Next full update (hopefully coming Thursday night) you guys get to hear about how I ripped in $1k with 7 high. No gamble no future!!!

This is the dream. Any hhs from the 40 minute upswing?

Damn. I gotta hand it to you Joe you take those losses pretty well. Some of us have that some of us dont. I definitely couldnt swing 2000$ and still be at the table

My fav: Im $550 deep 5 limps to me in SB I make it $55 w QQ. Utg (I don't know him well yet but he seems pretty active) limp reraises to $195. I tank a while and I still don't know whether call or shove is better, but in this case I end up shoving. He calls with KK, I flop a queen, and he proceeds to go on insane monkey tilt 3 betting to $500 with j7o the next hand (he lost to aks, I wasn't in the hand).

After finishing week 1 up $1400, I'm putting $378 on Houston ML tonight to win $813