Quote:
Originally Posted by TheVision
To be honest I don't like your shove on River in Hand 1/2 (A7s) you literally beat nothing, and this is way to thin imo. U don't get called by worst ace so why value bet this?
I would like to hear your thoughts on this hand, bc I think this shove must be mistake. Otherwise I would really be interested in being convinced otherwise.
First, I admit it's thin. Actually, really really thin. But here's my reasoning why this is a value bet.
In order for this to be a profitable jam, villian's calling range needs to have 50% equity or less versus my hand.
Here are the hands I expect villian will be value betting and calling any raise I make on the river as a result of the lines we both have taken up to the river. The numbers in brackets are combination estimations.
Losing calls
Trips with a club blocker:
1) Ax Q
I expect it is not a 100% call here, probably a mixed frequency call, perhaps 50% of them? [4combos*.5 =
2]
2) Rare combo of AxK
[4 combos possible, ~5% likelyhood of villian flatting it pre so 4*.05 = [
.2 ]
Flushes: K
Q
, K
J
, Q
J
, K
T
. All these will peel a 25% pot cb on the flop! Maybe even Q
T
and J
T
, I'd peel them on occasion too. So call it 4.75combos, but not all will bet the turn when checked to, so I'd hazard a guess at [
2.5 ]
TOTAL: 4.7
Winning calls
Low pair Boats: 44, 55. The average villian I estimate... probably only defends 33% of these pre vs. a 3B from these positions. So 3combos*2ofeach*33% = [
2 ]
High Boats: A4s, A5s. This deep, these hands are better off as 4bets rather than flats and it's uncommon these are flatted so I estimated only 25% of each, [(4+4)*.25= [
2 ]
TOTAL: 4
So Losing Calls = 4.75 ; Winning Calls = 4
4.75 > 4 meaning I should jam
Note, these are all estimations to what I feel the typical population playstyle is. They may be a little conservative, but I honestly feel these are close to accurate