Original Thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...hread-1205158/

So, I decided to start a new thread, with a title that is more focused on what I'm trying to accomplish. I had another thread going, but it got no views/responses because I think it was just to random. No focus by myself, mainly because i'm on a limited bankroll, limited time(wife and kids), and full time job. I need a game that I can put in some decent volume, in my limited amount of time.

I've started playing strictly the new merge super turbo's which follow the old FTP structure with 65/35 payout. They're amazing and I want to play as many of these as I can. Up until now i've struggled to really find a game that I can play on my bankroll I really enjoyed. The old structure was to Bingo like, and I've never been very good at any cash games except for HU Cash(which I don't have a proper roll for).

I've done a lot of research on obtainable ROI's and BR required, and my goal is to move up in stakes until I reach my optimum play level. Where I can win with a >5% ROI(closer to 10%) to reduce variance and downswings.


This thread will follow my journey up the ranks until I'm at a level where I'm able to earn enough for a down payment on a new place for the family on Lake Champlain.

I started with $100 deposit and after being breakeven(slight winner after rakeback) playing all sorts of games; HU ST's, 6max ST's, DoN's, 9man Turbo's, Merge finally added this new structure and I have begun to crush. I know my current winrate is not sustainable, but I do think I have a significant edge at my stakes, especially once the game gets HU.

Up until these new structures came out I was running about 50bi below EV and getting crushed(always seemingly up against the top of their range).. Tides have turned, things are looking up the roll is starting to grow and I hope to continue this success and keep myself honest.

To do this I am putting a freeroll up for anyone who catches me playing any games besides NEW 6max Super Turbo's on Merge in July, I will give them $25. My name is BassClef..

Another issue I have is raging in chat. I don't really tilt in life, but sometimes I just say **** in chat, so because of that I've turned off all chat and bubbles, but if for some reason I do rage in chat, I'll pay someone $10 if they call me on it here!

My plans for moving up are 100bi until I reach a desired stake. These things can be very swingy, but whatever. EMBRACE THE VARIANCE like a teddy bear.

June was my first month back since BF and it didn't start off to well.. July I feel like I have found my game and things are looking up.

All Games Since Returning:


July:


Free Rolls:
Playing anything other than NEW 6max ST's: $25
Chat Rage: $10

July Goals:
[ ]500 Games
[ ]Profit
[ ]Move up to the $2's completely(currently mixing $1's and a few $2's every once in awhile)

Current Bankroll:
$145.80

Good luck, sub'd and following u i currently do a huge mix of games on merge stt and mtt wise, i should probably start limiting myself to 1-2 forms instead.

I've done a couple of these and seen u, didnt notice how good your play was tho, may try a couple more

Thanks GL to you too, I want to master one form instead of being jack of all trades, master of none.

gl! channel your inner teddy!

How did u get such good volume on those new 6 max ones? i hardly ever see them fill, or is it a lot busier in those in the evenings?

just keeping 4 games reg'd at a time. On July 3rd I was able to play all day from about 10am to 8pm(vacation) - since then i've just played 20-40 a day reg'ing 4 at a time.

My playtime is usually 4-8pm EST(GMT-5)

I'm not regging any old structure, just the new.

100BI seems kinda risky
or is that just for taking shots
gl

just shot taking... I'm playing with 150bi atm.. Comfortably i'd like 200+

I'll be shot taking until I reach the $5.30's.. there I plan to grind comfortably for awhile till I have a much bigger BR. I hope I never go busto again so I'm trying to be pretty strict on the roll.. I've played a few $2.12's, but I'd say 99% of my play was $1.06's.

I'll take a shot for real @ the $2.12's when I reach $200.. If I fall back to $150 i'll drop back down.

About to start today's play

OK done a couple of these just now, which you happened to be in, and dang these are reg infested, but they dont seem to play well... i dont mean to criticize since im not great, but they def dont play to a standard i would of expected.

no they're very bad. There are a few guys who seem to have huge winnings though playing $1's, probably just for leaderboard volume I guess.

The structure really does make it a great game.. so much fun. I'm playing horrible today.

I don't even know if I play that well, but my style has been getting the money, so, fish on a heater!

I do notice I play a lot of the same people HU.

Who u seen today u think is good, see if im one of em hahhaa

Umm, i'm not sure off the top of my head.. I just tagged them as I was sharkscoping them.

Finished up my session for the day.. played horrid. oh wells, always tomorrow

July started off great, but its been pretty up and down since then. Last post I felt like I played horribly, yesterday, I played another big volume day(for me close to 100 games), and just ran so awful... of the 80 something games I played I cashed or bubbled nearly 50% of the time.

Can't really do much about it but put in more volume. Took a break after the last 8bi downswing you see, after a nice upswing where i thought I was gonna get out of this downer.

I will improve, meet my goals, and move up this month! That I am determined to do.

At this pace I will crush my volume goal for the month!

I'm interested in a coach/staking deal, or a profit/coaching deal if anyone knows anybody that would be interested, for NEW 6max(FTP Structure) super turbo's on Merge.

Bankroll: $122.81

I think i'm throwing in the towel on SNG's and MTT's and just going to stick with cash. I'm just really really bad at them lol.. Probably just bad at poker in general, but at least i'm an overall winner at cash in my lifetime =/.

Dont give up man.
gl

Hey man I have my own thread going. I am playing 6 max turbos (not supers) on Lock. Good luck on your adventure to sng gold. Here is my graph from my first 149 games:



New Graph:

Games: 149

Avg Profit: $6.80

Avg Stake: $13.39

ROI: 46.7%

Profit: $1,014

Just passed a grand profit...let's keep this train rolling!!

I have no intention of trolling you here so please don't take it as such. This is an attempt at a kick in the ass.

Did you really title your thread "Embrace the Variance" and then throw in the towel after what I see is at most a 30bi swing in your most recent graph? That is pretty damn ironic.

Check out this nearly 200bi downswing in less than 800 games I had playing 20s and 35s. May give you some perspective as to what embracing the variance really entails. As you can see every bit of that 4k is below EV.



As you told me you have played professional poker in the past, I highly doubt you are simply bad at poker as you stated. You are simply experiencing a very small portion of the variance someone playing these games must endure. There is a reason I tell people I wouldn't even play a superturbo without 300bis in my roll, and I'd be a lot happier at 500. MaxCut is a very good player and he had a 600 buy in below ev stretch. And his EV was positive. It is a sick sick game man, so don't give up at the first sign of variance (a small sign at that). Especially when your challenge in this thread is to embrace that variance!

Good luck dude! Hope that helps.

^Yeah...what he said...

did this thread just turn into a public graph bbv?

looks like it.

Hey dude don't give up. Supers can rip a person's heart out but if you keep it up things will turn around. Maybe you expectations were to high. I did notice that you wrote you thought you could get a +5% roi. IMO not possible you basically are hoping to break even and make money from RB. Keep your head up OK. Gl!

i think its possible in the FTP structure.

Not with the player pool so small and reg. infested. If you think that you can keep that big of an roi in supers definitely don't quit. Gl!

I gave up on supers too man, for me I could not mentally handle the variance. Just play whatever you feel you can grind for hours at a time without a problem and have fun while doing it. I used to grind cash but gave up on it because it just wasn't fun for me. Now I play 6mans/9mans/DoNs/45mans every session I play and I love it cuz I never get sick of them. The variance is low too which helps me to not tilt since I never experience 50BI+ swings. GL

glad to see my attempt at help was well received
Yea it is possible at the top end of the spectrum of the best ROI in the game achievable by the absolute best players. It is much more likely at the micros but still won't be totally common I don't think. Also variance will still get in the way of that over the incredibly small samples such as your own (even tho you are sporting a very nice 3.2% right now) The thing is you need to play at least 10k games before your ROI even means anything. And even then I'd prob say 25k or more before I'd give it a real consideration.

I mean Zack running 700+ buyins below ev over 40k+ games is absurd but this stuff happens regularly. Obviously his ROI over that pretty big sample is meaningless still as it is thousands of dollars away from his EVROI.