I’m a big Jets fan and love this bet, corner is really thin for us and our slot (Poole) leaves a lot to be desired.

Really enjoy this thread man, I also dabble in sports betting, good luck this season!

Always nice to see a fellow Jets fan Yes, it seems corners are going to be a problem this season for us. I have Beasley also one of my fantasy deep PPR-leagues, really expecting Allen to have him as his go-to guy.

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This one is more of a long shot player prop for W1:

LAC-IND Mo Alie-Cox to score a TD, 10 @Betfair

Alie-Cox´s role was getting bigger at the end of last season. Wouldn´t be surprised to see Colts use a lot of two TE sets. With odds so large I think this is worthy enough lottery ticket.

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Played a 10$ satellite to 215$ WCOOP PLO while making dinner and got the ticket, so I played my first MTT in a while. PLO tournies definitely have value in them, but unluckily got eliminated as a 82% favourite on the flop. 160BB stack would have been nice

Not betting todays´ games so going to wrap up Week 1.

Got 2/6 right for -3 units. All over/under bets came super close, TAM-SF was short of 0,5 pts, ARI-DET was good until 48 secs left, and PHI-WAS was going to be tie until last second field goal.

Lamar Jackson MVP bet for 81 looks fine, though against this year´s Dolphins anybody looks like an MVP candidate.

Made an early W2 bet already: DET-LAC LAC -3 1,909 @Pinnacle

Chargers in last 3 seasons are 15-7 against the spread when playing away, and looked good against the Colts.

Don´t like this bet anymore. LA has key players injured on the defensive side and Stafford has T.J Hockenson as an extra weapon he hasn´t had in years. Also, LAC has to travel from west to east for an early 1pm game. So yeah, would´t bet this game anymore, also line has moved to -2,5.

For thursdays´ game CAR-TAM I bet under 50 1,917 @Pinnacle.

It looks like Tampas´ offensive line isn´t capable enough to provide time for Winston to throw. Newton also threw a ton of short passes mainly to McCaffrey, so this one might well be under-game.

subbed, interested to read about your sports bets.

gl

I was quick enough to get Cleveland as moneyline winner for 1,63 before one bookie reacted to the news that Darnold is not going to play. It will be biggest bet of the week, but same time I really want Jets to win this one

This would have been perfect monday night prime time game if Darnold would play.

Other bets for W2:



LAC I would like to take back, BAL handicap seems too large, LAR-NO should be high scoring game, and I trust Rams at their home. GB-MIN, both have seemingly good defenses this season.

Going to look some player props later too.

i just realized you're european, what led to your interest in nfl?

Final bets for W2:



Felt really dirty putting that Miami bet in since this game could be something ridiculous like 112-3 for Patriots

Yeah, I was years just watching only Super Bowl with friends every year like many non-U.S. sports fans do, I guess. I followed hockey pretty intensively, but 82 games in a season started to feel too much and eventually just followed the playoffs. Then I gradually started following more and more NFL because games seemed way more interesting.

NFL has just the right amount of games, making every game important. I also like the tactical elements, clock management, personnel usage, different weather conditions between states and how teams have to balance their rosters according to salary cap.

I have NFL Gamepass, and probably be watching something like 80% of the games this season with the "condensed game"-feature.

W2 results: 6/11 right, for +0,5 units.

LAC was expectedly bad bet, lot of weird stuff happening in that game. Miami had some pride left on the first half, was one makeable catch away from scoring at least one freakin´ field goal. ATL has non-existent run game, and Freeman got only 20+ yards. Hockenson bet was completely wasted money. Cleveland was free money with quick reaction 1,63 moneyline.

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Couple of early bets I suspect come down later:

PHI-DET U 48 1,91 @William Hill

Not sure how many receivers will be left from that bloodbath Eagles had to endure. DET is running the ball over 50% of times on 1st downs on first half, which should be some kind of indicator to go under total:



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NE-NYJ U 46 1,925 @Pinnacle

Jet´s offense is so castrated that even Lord Varys looks like a stud when compared.

More W3:



KC bet is shitty early I made on tuesday, fortunately just 1 units though.

NO and PIT bets are relying that their back up QB´s have now had whole week to prepare for the game, much better situation than last week when they were thrown out there in the middle of game. Both have good supporting cast, and SEA, SF might be a bit overrated now.

LAC-HOU line was probably brought down by last weeks performances by both teams, but for example LAC had botched field goals, interception at the goal line etc.

time to hammer the Minshew II for ROY bet imo ;-)

Was thinking about it for sure after thursday. He throw some smooth balls, and most importantly, his style is even smoother:



I was about to bet CLE-LAR under the total, but the line has gotten as low as 46,5, so have to pass. Just going to take a quick look on player props before games.

Two bets more:

CLE-LAR U 48 for 1 unit, Pinnacle
PHI-DET PHI -4 for 3 units, Pinnacle

Another meh week, got right 5/9 for -0,5 units.

PHI-DET was biggest game, PHI -4 and under 48. Game ended 27-24 for Detroit. Eagles let them have a kickoff return for TD and also two easy fumbles. Lions have been very lucky past couple of games.

LAC-HOU Under bet was short of 0,5 pts. Houston missed and extra point in the end...

NE-NYJ was also nearly missed because of NE´s weird kickoff return fumble on own goal line.

SF-PIT, another weird game, SF fumbled many times on opposite red zone and also threw couple of interceptions. Somehow won that over 42,5 bet though. Steelers looked horrible in that game.

KC-BAL was lost as expected.

CLE-LAR under bet was clear from the start, Brown´s offense looks very dull and predictable.

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Couple of earlies:

26.9. GB-PHI PHI +4,5 1,99 @Pinnacle 2 units
GB got their win over Denver as a pure gift when Denver fumbled two times near their own goal line. Look ahead line last week for this game was GB -3.

29.9. IND-OAK U 44,5 2,00 @Pinnacle 3 units
I expect Indy to run very long drives and Darius Leonard should be back in defense to limit OAK´s opportunities.

PLO project has been progressing pretty slowly, have been very lazy when talking about grinding this month. Still playing PLO100, current BR number is 6900€/6000€. If I reach 10k, I am going to take a careful shot to PLO200. Although words "careful" and "PLO" don´t really fit in the same sentence.

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Here are my bets for W4 so far, made these along the week.



TAM +10,5 was my target, now line is +9. Got this on tuesday I think. ARI is up tempo team and total should be pretty high in their games. Just hoping Seattle would pass more in this game. Ten +4 seems be on many sharp´s list this week. I personally don´t like Titans at all, but lets give it a shot.

IND-OAK Jack Doyle Over 3,5 receptions 2,52 @Pinnacle 1 units

T.Y. Hilton is out and Indy should use more 2 TE sets. I expect lot of short throws, hopefully to Doyle´s direction.

W4 results 4/6 right for 2 units profit.

IND-OAK was heading under the total, but Brissett threw pick-6 2 mins left.
ARI-SEA my bet was total over 48, which came nowhere close. ARI´s offense was no show in that game and Seattle run the clock down on the second half.

W5 earlies:



I don´t know what I was thinking betting SF game so early with line 48, now it´s down to 46,5.

LAC-DEN I don´t expect the line go to DEN +7, but if it does, I am going to bet it.

Got a little heater in PLO100, and won a little short of 10 buy ins in one day. Current roll is ~8000€/10000€

Collection of more W5 bets:



Took an early week gamble with NYJ´s Darnold being able to play. Obv he is not going to play, but still line didn´t move much.

Pit has been passing to WR´s 70% of the time and BAL has been of the better teams defending WR passes, when it comes to success rate.

This might the last time for me to bet for Denver this season, their rushing offense matchup is very good against LAC. Should open chances to Lindsay to catch also passes since DEN is passing to RB´s over the league average (26%v20%)

haven't grunched the numbers but looks like you had a good week

Well, got 4/7 bets right for 1 unit profit, could have been worse I guess. Denver bets were a nice find, going to approach every game in the coming week in similar fashion. Try find and stack mismatches in personnel grouping and pass distribution strengths and weaknesses between teams.

Couple of James White bets for thursday:

NE-NYG J.White over 4,5 receptions 1,75 @Betfair for 1 unit
NE-NYG J.White over 42,5 reception yards 1,869 @Pinnacle for 1 unit

Patriots like to pass to RB´s, in fact they pass to backs most in the league. 32% (avg.21%). Giants defense has let most yards against RB passes, 10.2 yards per attempt (league avg. is 6.1)

When I was living years ago in Buenos Aires I became good friends with a Norwegian guy who bet professionally on soccer. He was an ex-finance guy who just got into it at some point, and he had moved to South America because the time zones were the best for watching games - he would watch games all day on multiple monitors in his apartment, and I’d go over there to watch big matches with him and have beers before going out. He’d have these little-known club games from all over the world going on that he said were prime spots because there wasn’t the same focus put when setting the lines.

At one point he felt comfortable enough to tell me that there were very few people in the world regularly betting the amounts that he was, and I know he would bet through Asia because they had the highest limits.

Now, I think he has a whole team working for him in London, mega successful guy with wife and kids now.

I know that has nothing to do with NFL betting but that’s the closest I’ve ever gotten to betting on sports, figured maybe you’d find it interesting. I did have a period where I was betting fairly large amounts on NFL games, but I could see how much I had to learn and didn’t want to relearn something as I was already pretty deep in poker.

Do you ever bet or consider betting on other sports? I know that’s been asked here, if you don’t feel like repeating it I can go look earlier in the thread. I’m a complete sports betting noob.

Anyways, I’m really enjoying lurking your thread, I’m a huge NFL (Broncos) fan and am just finding it a really interesting thread.

Cheers

Don´t have lot of ideas for this week´s bets, maybe TAM-CAR total sacks over, LAR-SF under 51, and Detroit +4,5 with under the total of 47.

These are in at the moment:



BAL-CIN last week´s look ahead line was BAL -9, adding 3,5 points more feels like an overreaction.

Eagles have injuries in cornerback department and Diggs & Thielen should get plenty of chances. Phillys offense also has looked better after adding Dallas Goedert back in the mix.


Interesting story! Those smaller leagues will definitely have value in them because they are not followed as much as these big leagues. Same thing in stock market; the more some firm gets analyzed, the more efficient its pricing in the market gets. In theory at least...

Right now I am betting only in NFL because I like to watch almost every game and betting brings additional element to it. If I were to make money with betting, I would definitely be betting more in less followed sports and leagues.

Thumbs up for Broncos, last week´s win over LA was sweet!

well done with james white and don't feel pressured to place bets when you don't see any edge - brute forcing in a "hey this could work" usually gets me into trouble

Probably my last W6 bets:



Gurley out, SF has two O-line men out along with FB Kyle Juszczyk, who has been major contributor in SF´s 2-1 (2 backs, 1 TE, 2 WR´s) offense that has been running over opponents this season. Interesting to see what coach Shanahan is going to do without him.

Jets get QB Darnold back, but he might need first half to get going.

Yes, this is definitely one of my weaknesses, just throwing bets at games with little to zero edge. Should remember that NOT betting some game is also a move and a choice.