Couple of situations from my last session review:

One of the rare situations in PLO where you want to slowplay in 3bet pot OOP.
Blocking everything should be the sign to try to set a trap.



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It kinda gets vague what qualifies as a bluff and what doesn´t. In this case I just applied following formula: Mediocre hand+blockers+over cbetting population = decent chance to win the pot immediately.

I made a hedge bet CIN U 6.0 wins @2.1 to bookie William Hill. If Bengals win exactly 6 games, I win original bet and push second one. All other results make me very little amount of loss, so basically freerollin here.

If somebody is interested, there is actually arbitage opportunity here. WH offers U 6.0 for 2.1 and for example Pinnacle has this same bet O 6.0 for 2.11.

Regular Season MVP: Kirk Cousins @67 William Hill

Just read this tip from twitter and I guess it makes sense. Team that can go to playoffs, good receiving corps should give Cousins some upside.

8.9. TAM-SF O 48,5 @1,91 Unibet

Bucs´ defense is very bad and their new head coach Bruce Arians believes in attacking aggressively. SF has way better offense this season. Both teams should play quick tempo football.

if the media votes to decide the football mvp I don't think those odds are high enough, they kind of hate him

but i like your thoughts on a QB with good receivers on what should be a playoff team having a good shot as any other - but Cousins' stats are often given an asterisk as fantasy stats because he'll throw a great game then just heave up a lazy interception in the 4th quarter to ice the loss - much better in fantasy than actual football

btw, not trying to come off negatively, enjoying the thread

Yeah, it is usually bunch of journalists coming together and deciding who has been the best in their opinion. Come to think of it, it truly does feel weird trying to picture Cousins as the MVP

And thanks for commenting, I didn´t find that negative at all

Did also first fantasy draft of the season, in a superflex league. First time playing that format, really refreshing to think almost entirely different strats compared to traditional formats.

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Quick poker update on PLO project: 5700/6000
Few buy-ins more and I can take a shot at PLO100. Games have been very good, and playing on Party with real rakeback feels nice.

yeah i've been getting into best ball really hard this year, modeled projections, synced schedules to find teamates, basically wrote a manifesto on it too

I also have a lot of Kirk Cousins because he always falls super late and sometimes undrafted (10 team leagues)

I'd be interested in how both of you guys go about evaluating these types of futures bets - do you have some sort of model set up for the season? Are you running a bunch of monte carlo sims and comparing outcomes in that vs the odds? Just a gut feeling that some guys are massively underpriced?

For example, looking at other MVP candidates a guy like Goff (SB caliber team, softest schedule via PFF) is @40. How would I get started evaluating the price on a guy like that?

I'm only just beginning to get involved in this stuff, so I'm far from the ideal person to be asking

What I tend to do is ask myself could Goff win it once every 40 multiverse iterations or Cousins every 80... but that's rarely helpful because my thoughts nearly always say yes

I think if the media loves Cousins then that's a great bet, but they don't

with awards stuff, i'd pay more attention to the gatekeepers of the award than the actual numbers themselves, while baseball is beginning to vote on guys based on hard numbers, you still have people abstaining because they have their own personal rules, like this happening

https://medium.com/@jeremylehrman/th...d-d71b1b925808

some writers just don't care and play by their own rules

In a recent podcast of Bill Simmons where he had Zach Lowe (2 mvp voters) they discussed who they were looking at and how easily they and others would be influenced not by numbers but by narratives. Bill Simmons simply said, if the Lebron/Klutch hype train gets behind Anthony Davis as an MVP candidate, they can easily force it into the media narrative and then all season people are talking and writing about Anthony Davis as MVP and then next thing they vote for him when they were never probably going to look his way either. You should also listen to Simmons when he discusses his own MvP votes this year and he doesn't vote on numbers but things like heart and leadership.

So for this stuff, I think if I were to go about MVP criteria, I'd find the voters and write a script to crawl all their stuff and find positive, neutral and negative mentions of a player. You get enough positive ones and you think that guy can stay healthy then jam it in.

I'd rather invest in hard futures like win/loss o/u or making the playoffs or not, I can do that without needing to read the minds of the voters

Last year I was afraid of narrative winning over numbers (Mayfield vs Barkley), but I think my Barkley bet was saved by the fact that Baker didn´t play all games last season. That is the downside of these vote based bets, you can´t really know what these journalists are thinking, how are their views based etc.

When thinking of team futures, there are some features besides player and coach changes I tend to look:

-Strength of schedule, most preferably easier at the start of season.
-Last year´s strength of schedule

Regression/progression toward the mean based stats:
-Injury luck last year
-Turnover margin last year
-Last year´s 1 score games.

-Did team start rookie QB last year? They tend to make sophomore jumps next year and teams also get to allocate lot of salary cap to different positions.

One player prop bet: Regular season passing yards Deshaun Watson over 4000,5 yards 1,91 @Unibet

Texans´ schedule is going to change from one of the easiest in 2018 to one of the toughest in 2019. Most likely they are going to have many tight games and Watson will likely have to throw more than last year. In 2018 Watson threw over 4100 yards.

i think that's a slam dunk, nice find

Small bet for Cardinals´ Kyler Murray to throw over 3400,5 yards, 1,85 @Betfair

+ Guy can throw
+ One of the easiest opponent pass defense schedules
+ All no. 1-2 drafted QB´s over the past decade, who have played at least 13 games, have averaged 3812 yards

- Is he going to play at least 13 games?
- Murray is very mobile QB, possibly bringing his total throwing numbers down

Indianapolis Colts to win AFC South 2,15 @Betstars

Pinnacle has this same bet for 1,769. Luck´s weird calf injury is little concerning, but Texans, Titans and Jaguars are just not convincing.

i love cards soft schedule this year, been taking a lot of murray and pairing him with darnold in best ball because in the few games murray has a rough matchup, darnold has a cake one and they both come cheap

not sure about him at all, that decision is 100% schedule based, I think Nathan Peterman could do well on the cards this year too

i think texans could be pretty good but it's their schedule which will keep them from doing well so like that indy bet too

Luck is not going to practice this week either

Pinnacle took AFC south division bet out from their list, I guess there is so much uncertainty around the guy. I have Luck in one of my fantasy leagues too, so beginning to be a little bit too invested here...

Anyway, made a future bet just a moment ago:

Chicago Bears to make playoffs: No 2,05 @William Hill

Their schedule shifts from second easiest in 2018 to top 10 toughest. They have 10 games against teams that are projected to achieve at least 9 wins in the coming season. Bears have built nice scheme around Trubisky, but are their opponents better equipped to counter it this year? Opposing QB´s are also going to be much better this year, throwing more difficult challenge for their defense.

That little concern escalated to a situation where Luck is never again going to play in NFL. Grabbed Jacoby Brissett for my fantasy team and managed to get Texans to win division for 3,75 as a hedge bet. Not an ideal start for this season.

Colts are still going to be competitive team due to their supporting cast and coach. Good o-line is going to help Brissett and 8 wins is completely possible.

whats the 2nd site in this post?

That is fairly new site, Run It Once poker. Offers only cash games.

brutal news, i immediately thought about this thread when i heard the luck news

but... with miller gone, that Watson prop bet seems like lock of the century now

Yep, very sad news. I wonder if Houston is going to make somekind of trade, going with Duke Johnson really sounds like extremely pass heavy situation for the coming season.

Just blind bet the dogs in preseason , +ev

I have to admit that I have never bet preseason games, so can´t say anything regarding this possibility. Does the historical data say this is true in long run?

Week 1 bet: ARI-DET U 48 1,92 @Unibet

ARI´s offense coached by Kliff Kingsbury scares me to some extent, but I trust Lions to slow down the game enough.

So I have played some PLO when had time and right now project is at 6180€/6000€, so I am going to do PLO100 shot soon. Probably going to start shortstacking to get more hands in to get eased to different playing stake. Would be great to catch upswing right at the start of the shot, but we´ll see what happens.

I have been playing pretty exploitable strategy but I trust that most people don´t pay enough attention to be able to make plays against me.

It has been over a month when I played an MTT last time and I surely don´t miss them.

Bet for week one: PHI-WAS 1st half total pts U 24 1,85 @Betstars

I don´t believe Skins´ ability to score a lot of points, but they maybe able to slow down the pace at the start to limit Philly´s scoring.

Week 1: NYJ-BUF Cole Beasley O 36,5 rec yards 1,87 @Unibet

One story in this game might well be Jet´s good defensive line forcing Allen to throw short throws to slot receiver Beasley. They also had good chemistry in preseason games.