Played first session of the month. Felt pretty good, but end game runs were very bad.

No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 73,688 (61.4 bb)
BB: 103,748 (86.5 bb)
UTG+1: 61,888 (51.6 bb)
UTG+2: 18,997 (15.8 bb)
MP1: 27,139 (22.6 bb)
Hero (MP2): 48,200 (40.2 bb)
MP3: 16,551 (13.8 bb)
CO: 30,034 (25 bb)
BTN: 72,014 (60 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9 9
3 folds, Hero raises to 2,400, 2 folds, BTN raises to 7,200, 2 folds, Hero raises to 48,100 and is all-in, BTN folds

Results: 17,100 pot
Hero mucked 9 9 and won 17,100 (9,800 net)

I studied this spot and against active 3bettor (>10%) who calls shove 99+, AK, maybe AQs, I can comfortably shove every pair I open from this position (44+)

Also, even with 100bb deep, if BTN is 3betting let´s say 15% and calling shove TT+ AK, shoving small pairs pre is not a terrible play:

How'd you get into sportsbetting? Where are you from? If you're in EU, how'd you get so interested in the NFL?

GL with the grind!

I have always had general interest into different sports and making bets kinda go hand in hand with that hobby. Transforming gradually from losing fun player into serious hobbyist

Yes, I am from EU, and got interested in NFL few years back. Mix of explosive short plays and multilayered tactics seemed fun. I invested into NFL Gamepass and got to watch nearly every game of the season and hooked myself into that game. NFL has been my no 1 sport for like 3-4 years now .


A bit better runs this time, got second in one smaller tournament and had quite a few opportunities to get deep in other tournies as well.

No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 52,866 (52.9 bb)
Hero (BB): 16,489 (16.5 bb)
MP1: 14,696 (14.7 bb)
MP2: 34,492 (34.5 bb)
MP3: 31,302 (31.3 bb)
CO: 16,700 (16.7 bb)
BTN: 35,205 (35.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A 9
3 folds, CO raises to 16,580 and is all-in, 3 folds

Results: 3,340 pot
CO mucked and won 3,340 (2,220 net)


This should be a call. I can exclude all big pairs from CO´s range and probably lots of better Ax too.

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Very nice flop to lead against CO´s range. There is big difference between BTN and CO range which has significant impact whether I want to lead these small to middle card flops. I rarely do this against BTN, but vs other positions from CO all the way to too wide opening UTG it should be fine.

Leading protects our hand and let´s us dictate the price. CO´s two overcards have around 23% equity against my hand and they are generally just going to check this flop so I think it is better to take matters into our own hands.

Took a shot at Sunday Million anniversary, nearly made in the money, but lost couple of flips. Some hands from the tourney:



Miracle river. Cold calling 3bet is so many times 99-QQ, so I didn´t really like that ten on the turn. But he has more JJ and QQ, so I think turn shove is a no brainer.

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Raise-calling J9s seems bad play.

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Btn was folding a lot to 3bets. Very bad runout unfortunately

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On the flop have to call vs 33% cbet, and the turn... Well, I need only 15% equity, so I guess I´ll just call.

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Would be nasty if I get shoved on OTT, but people were playing so scared and passive in this tournament that I thought I can get away with this.

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Good board for BB against CO opener. Small leads have good risk/reward ratio in my opinion.


All in all, felt really good playing this tourney. I hope WSOP tournaments be a bit similar to this, loose and passive and lots of opportunities for exploitative play.

Didn´t realize SCOOP is in next month. I got already 2x 109$ and 1x 55$ tickets from dedicated spin&gos. Opponents in those spins seem to playing with interesting playbooks...

Also, I have been buying 50bb´s to FF on Party to practice situations with bigger stacksizes. EV is around zero, but that redline looks promising:



Some hands:



This guy´s ranges were all over the place. That minraise on the flop seems suspicious enough so decided to just call down...

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I don´t get that turn sizing from villain, only my top hands are continuing against that.

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This combination feels like a good candidate to bluffraise flop, no harm done if I have to fold just 9-high with gutshot. Good turn to put all my money in.

Preregistered also to Big50 Flight D already:

Month ended on a positive note after winning couple tournies on Unibet:







Great board to do some leading, but this time chose to x-raise against small cbet and call vs bigger one. On the turn I can continue betting with almost every betsize between pot sized bet and 20%. On flush completing river I don´t think I get to bet big with my straight.

Some early NFL bets for the upcoming season:

49ers to win SB @36 Betfair
49ers to win division @6 Unibet
Cleveland to win under 9,5 games @1,91 Unibet

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Have had really good time playing poker lately, I have studied and widened my ranges a bit. My SCOOP game days are going to be from 18th-21th. Having a day job does not suit well with 2day mass tournaments. Just going to treat these tournies as a preparation for WSOP.



Nice turn card to put V´s overpairs in a tough spot. On the river I guess I will have more 9´s and get to do a lot of shoving.

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This might be too aggressive of a shove on the turn. I can easily just check-call and donk shove good rivers.

First day of SCOOP behind, no 2nd days nor cashes. Played it smooth and chill with only max 6-7 tables because was in a hangover. My firm had spring party and therefore playing day was not as energetic as I would have wanted. Today is going to be a monster day, starting with 11$ and 109$ PKO´s early.

Not very interesting hands in last session, this is how I got double early in 55$ PLO:

Nothing worth of mentioning about my SCOOP stab. Played yesterday 109$ 8-game, but runouts in every stud game were pretty horrible. It can be very frustrating to lose pot after pot in limit games, feels like there is nothing you can do and being limit handcuffs your options.

I´m going to stay away from the games for a week, relax and maybe study a bit. I like to feel fresh when going to WSOP and break has always done that to me, brought back that joy of playing I mean

Really like shorting the Browns here, but 49ers seem like a bit of a stretch? We have Jimmy G coming off a brutal injury and not a lot of chemistry with the newer WR corps.

Yep, Jimmy G is the big question, this is the season he must prove to be a franchise QB. It seems they are going with RB committee and presumably going to pass a lot more to backs this season, so maybe light WR core is not that big of an issue. Their defence should be good and capable of keeping games tight. 49'ers is a very risky and volatile bet regardless.

Other teams I am pondering where they are going this season:

Steelers: have good chance winning their division, currently getting 3.0 for div win.
Lions: First thought is that this a low winning team, under 6 or 7?
Jets: I thought 8 wins pretty easily with this schedule, now after GM being fired and Gase saying Bell and Mosley are overpriced, I don't know what to think of this team... going to pick either Bills or Jets to overachieve this season, we'll see...

Decided to stay in Miami for couple of days on my way to Vegas. Currently waiting my flight to LV at the Miami airport.

I went to Magic City casino at the downtown and played 1/2 NL for few hours while drinking beer. On my left there was this super friendly KC Chiefs fan, very nice guy who was excited to hear I was heading to play in WSOP. Table consensus also was that Browns are overhyped right now.

Session started well with me managing to win in the high hand promotion with AAAQQ for 250 bucs Unfortunately run with KK against AA and lost like 30 dollars on that session.

It seems there is pretty big chaos at the Rio because of the Big50 with thousands and thousands of players. Going to squeeze myself in there tomorrow nevertheless

Busted from Big50 just before night break. First lost pre flip AK vs JQ for 28 bigs pot total, then shoved 19bb from CO w/KQ, got called by AJ. Could have just raised that KQ also, but doesn´t matter anymore.

Today going to play 600$ deepstack bracelet event, maybe better luck with flips in this one?

Busted from the "deep"stack kq vs ak. Won 400$ in 1-3 nlh cash. Today playing the 1500$ 6max.

Nothing went well in that 6max and busted early. Got 900$ back from 1-3 cash. Today going for the milly maker flight 1. On saturday most likely playing the 400$ 8-game championship in The Orleans.

Two more busts: in milly had A3s as the BB in 248ss 3way flop. X-raised my 20 bb stack in and didnt beat A8. Before that had lost decent chunk with KK vs KJs in a 3bet pot.

In 8-game my last hand was in triple draw, couldn't hit my 2357 draw with two rounds ro go in 3way pot.

Registered todays 1k doublestack and playing also tomorrows 600$ PLO. Down for like 5.3k on this trip. Seed of doubt is entering my mind as I end up busting every tournament left and right...

I see people cold calling Q3o vs ep opens, overvaluing overpairs in paired boards and all kinds of stuff. When used to play 10 tournaments at once, one tabling kinda clouds your mind and you find questioning your play. Nevertheless, I just keep playing one hand at a time and making the best of it while I am here.

Aaand out from the Double Stack little short of the money. UTG limp, I check on BB w/T8hh, flop T83ss, I donk small, UTG minraise, I shove for 20BB, BB calls and has JT. Turn is J and gg.

Tomorrow 600$ PLO, after that not gonna play poker for at least a month.

New NFL season bet: ATL to win NFC South for 5 @William Hill.

Saints were on the positive side of variance last year winning many close games. Falcons on the other hand were battling with injuries and finished 7-9. I could easily see tables turning this season and ATL should have fairly good chance winning their division.

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My poker break did last only little over 2 weeks because Stars threw me a 40% rakeback:



There is also some pirate promo and with that added close to 50% RB forces me to play this through.

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I would say my WSOP experience was ok, even with **** runs. Cash games were magically good and having the option to play other games than NLHE is a huge plus. I played tournaments 80% of the time, but next time it will be more like 60% cash and 40% tournaments just for the sake of smoothing the variance.

NFL season bet: Pittsburgh Steelers O 9 wins, 1,91 @Unibet. Pinnacle has this same bet for 1,81. I think this team is still good and hype around Browns helps to find value this season. Roethlisberger is of course a concern, if he gets injured this bet is going to fail.

One early W1 also: CHI-GB GB+3,5 1,91 @William Hill. Was planning to wait for +4, but kinda feels like the line is going to drop by the start of the season.

More season bets:

Longshot for regular season MVP: Lamar Jackson 81 @Betstars

Jackson has good team around him, and is more integrated into their system compared to last year. If his passing gets better, he might be a steal in NFL fantasy drafts too.

NFC East winning team: Philadelphia Eagles 2,05 @Pinnacle

Healthy Carson Wentz, easy schedule and smart organization should lift Eagles this year. Their main opponent are Cowboys, who were 9-3 in 1 score games last year. Expect them to regress this year.

I think I found very nice value bet for the coming season:

Redskins regular season wins: Under 6,5 for 1.91 @William Hill

Pinnacle has this same bet for 1,735. Lot of other bookies have their line set at 6.0 wins.

Washington has a very difficult start for the season, playing against PHI, DAL, CHI and NE in first 5 weeks. One downside for this bet is that after that they get to play vs. MIA, BUF, NYJ, DET and of course NYG twice.

49ers season wins Over 8.0 1,91 @William Hill
Bengals season wins Over 5.5 1,72 @Betstars

Two teams with lots of injuries last year.

Bengals face below average teams outside of their own division, like BUF, ARI, JAX, OAK, MIA and NYJ. Betfair also have over 6.0 wins for 1,9, but I chose 5.5 wins so winning is possible with just 6 wins. Their last season was actually good until week 10, going 5-3 but after that their season went to sewer.

I tried to play one MTT session few days ago, but it felt so obnoxious that I had to quit short. It just that feels long hours with only 5 min breaks are not for me anymore.

Instead, I started new project called "Winning PLO100 player within 5 months."
5000€ starting bankroll, playing PLO50 until I reach 6000€ and after that playing PLO100 until I can truly declare myself winning player on that level. Dropping down if I drop under 6000€.

Sites I play on are RIO, Party and Unibet. I am few hundred hands in and current situation is 5234€/6000€

To be able to succeed in this project I bought one month subscription to PLO Mastermind. Have watched couple of videos and done some quizzes and already feel not as ****ty player as in couple of weeks ago.

Reviewing hands is going to be a problem since these sites I play on don´t offer hand histories, at least proper ones. I have to record some of my sessions with OBS Studio and use the video to go through hands.

Will be following along as someone who has just started toying with applying models to sports betting, and I'm getting pretty fascinated with the world of it. GL with PLO man, as a strictly NL player if I could go back in time I would learn PLO first.

Thanks man! You are right, with all the data available it is very interesting to try to apply it to sports betting. In my opinion the hard part is to identify important stats from not so relevant ones. You can also still wager good bets by just comparing different betting sites and finding odds inefficiencies.