Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Poker Goals & Challenges Post your threads logging your travels up the poker ladder as you achieve your poker goals and dreams. "Challenges" does NOT mean prop bets, wagers, etc.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-31-2018, 04:08 AM   #76
TheEducatedGuesser
centurion
 
TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 113
Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)



Wow, NFL W17 couldnīt have been much better, won already some season bets (Elliott most rush, IND+BAL to playoffs, BAL to win division). Got also all of my SB/conference bets still alive for playoffs:

BAL to win SB @51, to win conference @23

IND to win SB @75

CHI to win SB @101

NO to win SB @19, to win conference @12

HOU to win SB @27

PHI to win SB/and or conference @26 EW bet

Not sure yet if I want to hedge my bets. Right now betting for KC and LA should secure lots of profit.

I donīt usually make any new yearsī promises but this time I make a promise to go to WSOP next summer and play few events, at least June 2nd Big50 for rake-free 500$ and June 7th 1500$ Millionaire Maker and some events in the middle of those two. This have been on my to-do list for 10 years and next year will be the best opportunity to do this.
TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 12:12 PM   #77
TheEducatedGuesser
centurion
 
TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 113
Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

Back to poker today:

    Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $100.50 (100.5 bb)
    BB: $67.53 (67.5 bb)
    UTG: $82.49 (82.5 bb)
    MP: $116.05 (116.1 bb)
    CO: $86.99 (87 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $100 (100 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with T T
    UTG folds, MP raises to $4, CO folds, Hero calls $4, 2 folds

    Flop: ($9.50) 6 A T (2 players)
    MP bets $4, Hero raises to $14, MP calls $10

    Turn: ($37.50) A (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero checks

    River: ($37.50) J (2 players)
    MP bets $98.05 and is all-in, Hero calls $82 and is all-in

    Results: $201.50 pot ($3 rake)
    Final Board: 6 A T A J
    MP showed Q K and won $0.00 (-$100 net)
    Hero showed T T and won $198.50 ($98.50 net)


    On the turn I thought betting really small to keep his draws in or checking is the action I should be doing. If V has an ace, he is not folding it ever and I can still get the money in by raising the river.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------

      Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): $103.81 (103.8 bb)
      BB: $100 (100 bb)
      MP: $199.15 (199.2 bb)
      CO: $102.27 (102.3 bb)
      BTN: $109.27 (109.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K K
      MP folds, CO raises to $2.54, BTN folds, Hero raises to $10, BB folds, CO calls $7.46

      Flop: ($21) 4 2 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.10, CO calls $7.10

      Turn: ($35.20) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $14, Hero raises to $86.71 and is all-in, CO calls $71.17

      River: ($205.54) K (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results: $205.54 pot ($2.85 rake)
      Final Board: 4 2 9 6 K
      Hero showed K K and won $202.69 ($100.42 net)
      CO showed J J and lost (-$102.27 net)


      To bet or to not bet the turn? Majority of his flop floats are Ax with BDFD which are not guaranteed to make a stab on the turn, so I believe straight forward bet-bet-bet would be better.


      -----------------------------------------------

      Made one bet for NFL playoffs next weekend: LAR-DAL Dak Prescott to make a TD 3,25 @Unibet. Still have Philly, Colts and Saints alive to win Conf/SB. Also have Saquon Barkley to win offensive rookie of the year @3,5. I fear Baker Mayfield is going to win the trophy though because of all the hype Cleveland is now having.

      ----------------------------------------------

      New book I have been reading:



      Physicists are maybe the ultimate truthseekers of our time. I love how reading about universe and origins of intelligence makes me feel tiny and insignificant. Maybe the biggest reason why I donīt tilt almost never nowadays is because of reading and thinking about this stuff. So crazy to think that over time some condensed stardust has developed awareness to a point where it has started playing internet poker against itself
      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
      Old 01-10-2019, 06:42 PM   #78
      TheEducatedGuesser
      centurion
       
      TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
       
      Join Date: Aug 2018
      Posts: 113
      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

      One more bet for NFL playoffs:

      NE-LAC LAC +4 1,97 @Pinnacle

      NE had one of the easiest schedules in the regular season and LAC has the better team here. LA is used to playing away fields and with +4 I trust this to be a winning bet.

      ------------------------------------------
        IPoker, $18.20 Buy-in (4,500/9,000 blinds, 900 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

        Hero (SB): 282,754 (31.4 bb)
        BB: 406,936 (45.2 bb)
        MP: 649,892 (72.2 bb)
        CO: 256,310 (28.5 bb)
        BTN: 194,108 (21.6 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is SB with 3 3
        3 folds, Hero raises to 281,854 and is all-in, BB folds

        Results: 22,500 pot
        Hero mucked 3 3 and won 22,500 (12,600 net)


        Final table, I was wondering if I can shove every pair here, and it turns out that I can. With ICM, I should be doing very selective induces since there are two players with less chips than I have.



        --------------------------------------------
          IPoker, $18.20 Buy-in (8,000/16,000 blinds, 1,600 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

          Hero (SB): 451,412 (28.2 bb)
          BB: 418,436 (26.2 bb)
          BTN: 920,152 (57.5 bb)

          Preflop: Hero is SB with K Q
          BTN folds, Hero completes, BB raises to 64,000, Hero raises to 449,812 and is all-in, BB calls 352,836 and is all-in

          Flop: (838,472) 8 7 T (2 players, 2 are all-in)
          Turn: (838,472) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
          River: (838,472) 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

          Results: 838,472 pot
          Final Board: 8 7 T 6 8
          Hero mucked K Q and lost (-418,436 net)
          BB showed A 3 and won 838,472 (420,036 net)


          Some reg made a disgusting raise-call when 3 left. He had ridiculously high Raise After SB Limp-stat being near 90%, so easy limp-shove for me.

          ---------------------------------------------------------

            IPoker, $18.20 Buy-in (3,500/7,000 blinds, 700 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

            SB: 103,618 (14.8 bb)
            Hero (BB): 237,300 (33.9 bb)
            CO: 211,409 (30.2 bb)
            BTN: 222,146 (31.7 bb)

            Preflop: Hero is BB with K Q
            CO folds, BTN raises to 17,500, SB folds, Hero calls 10,500

            Flop: (41,300) 6 5 2 (2 players)
            Hero checks, BTN checks

            Turn: (41,300) 4 (2 players)
            Hero bets 21,000, BTN calls 21,000

            River: (83,300) T (2 players)
            Hero bets 56,000, BTN calls 56,000

            Results: 195,300 pot
            Final Board: 6 5 2 4 T
            Hero mucked K Q and lost (-95,200 net)
            BTN showed Q Q and won 195,300 (100,100 net)


            Very important to make note if someone knows to x-back these kind of flops with overpair. Against population betting turn+river makes a lot of money in general.
            TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
            Old 01-10-2019, 07:00 PM   #79
            topnotchham
            newbie
             
            Join Date: Jul 2011
            Posts: 33
            Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

            Nice thread! I love poker and betting the NFL so you've got a follower
            topnotchham is offline   Reply With Quote
            Old 01-12-2019, 05:48 AM   #80
            TheEducatedGuesser
            centurion
             
            TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
             
            Join Date: Aug 2018
            Posts: 113
            Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

            Quote:
            Originally Posted by topnotchham View Post
            Nice thread! I love poker and betting the NFL so you've got a follower
            Thanks! Am. football has so many moving parts what makes it very nice sport to make bets.

            ------------------------------

            I am starting a study period on 3bet pots. I donīt think playing those spots exactly like solvers say is the optimal way, so I will be using a lot of node locking in my studies.

              Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

              SB: $200 (100 bb)
              Hero (BB): $205.37 (102.7 bb)
              MP: $250.09 (125 bb)
              CO: $224.25 (112.1 bb)
              BTN: $375.69 (187.8 bb)

              Preflop: Hero is BB with 4 5
              MP raises to $5, 3 folds, Hero raises to $20, MP calls $15

              Flop: ($41) A J A (2 players)
              Hero checks, MP checks

              Turn: ($41) K (2 players)
              Hero bets $20, MP folds

              Results: $41 pot ($2.36 rake)
              Final Board: A J A K
              Hero mucked 4 5 and won $38.64 ($18.64 net)
              MP mucked and lost (-$20 net)


              I am mixing BB vs utg 3bets with these small connectors. Obviously having very narrow 3b range here, consisting of big pairs, AKs and some 45s, maybe pocket 33īs etc.

              Equity seems to be quite surprisingly pretty even on this board. In first sim I should be betting 45 of clubs. However, IP should be slowplaying like 50% of the time their Ax here. If I nodelock him betting 25% pot on the flop with majority of his trips, I should be checking my whole range on the flop.

              After check-check, betting pretty big, 50%-75% seems to be good.

              To be honest, I wasnīt thinking like this when I played. I thought that since population is likely to slowplay their monsters on this flop, my check is likely to look like more strong in villains eyes than it really is.
              TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
              Old 01-14-2019, 05:16 AM   #81
              TheEducatedGuesser
              centurion
               
              TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
               
              Join Date: Aug 2018
              Posts: 113
              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

              Quote:
              Originally Posted by TheEducatedGuesser View Post
              One more bet for NFL playoffs:

              NE-LAC LAC +4 1,97 @Pinnacle
              This was way off, NE was very convincing. Gonna be fun to watch KC-NE in conference game!

              Got 1/3 bets right on the divisional round.

              I am going hedge my Saints bet, Pinnacle is giving 2,56 for straight LA win. If Saints go to SB just going to ride with them
              TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
              Old 01-16-2019, 03:41 PM   #82
              TheEducatedGuesser
              centurion
               
              TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
               
              Join Date: Aug 2018
              Posts: 113
              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

              I am going to halt my MTTīs for a while because got 40% rakeback from Pokerstars:



              So I have 21 days to rake 1000$ and after that I will receive 400$. I am going to do this by playing NL 50/100 on regular and zoom tables.

              Current progress:





              Few hands from the session (havenīt studied these yet):

                Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                SB: $116.14 (116.1 bb)
                BB: $67.50 (67.5 bb)
                UTG+1: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
                UTG+2: $40 (40 bb)
                MP1: $100 (100 bb)
                MP2: $199.82 (199.8 bb)
                MP3: $101.38 (101.4 bb)
                CO: $106.83 (106.8 bb)
                Hero (BTN): $120.53 (120.5 bb)

                Preflop: Hero is BTN with J T
                5 folds, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $3, SB raises to $13, 2 folds, Hero calls $10

                Flop: ($30) A 3 T (2 players)
                SB bets $10.55, Hero calls $10.55

                Turn: ($51.10) A (2 players)
                SB checks, Hero bets $12.64, SB calls $12.64

                River: ($76.38) 4 (2 players)
                SB checks, Hero checks

                Results: $76.38 pot ($2.50 rake)
                Final Board: A 3 T A 4
                SB showed Q Q and won $73.88 ($37.69 net)
                Hero mucked J T and lost (-$36.19 net)


                Turn bet felt like burning money, since people are generally so strong when squeezing oop. Maybe even fold pre could be an option.

                ------------------------------------------------------------------

                  Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 3 Players
                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                  SB: $100.50 (100.5 bb)
                  Hero (BB): $138.68 (138.7 bb)
                  BTN: $118.90 (118.9 bb)

                  Preflop: Hero is BB with J J
                  BTN raises to $3, SB folds, Hero raises to $14, BTN calls $11

                  Flop: ($28.50) 6 K J (2 players)
                  Hero bets $21, BTN calls $21

                  Turn: ($70.50) 5 (2 players)
                  Hero bets $103.68 and is all-in, BTN folds

                  Results: $70.50 pot ($1 rake)
                  Final Board: 6 K J 5
                  Hero mucked J J and won $69.50 ($34.50 net)
                  BTN mucked and lost (-$35 net)


                  Could be betting bigger on the flop and set up better stack sizes for turn shove. My bluffs here are AQ, AJ with As, AT with As if I want to 3bet that hand.

                  -----------------------------------------------------
                    Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                    SB: $100 (100 bb)
                    BB: $75.85 (75.9 bb)
                    UTG: $107.46 (107.5 bb)
                    MP: $104.66 (104.7 bb)
                    CO: $100 (100 bb)
                    Hero (BTN): $108.55 (108.6 bb)

                    Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 5
                    3 folds, Hero raises to $2, SB folds, BB calls $1

                    Flop: ($4.50) 6 9 K (2 players)
                    BB checks, Hero checks

                    Turn: ($4.50) 9 (2 players)
                    BB bets $1, Hero raises to $7, BB calls $6

                    River: ($18.50) 6 (2 players)
                    BB checks, Hero bets $23, BB calls $23

                    Results: $64.50 pot ($2.50 rake)
                    Final Board: 6 9 K 9 6
                    BB mucked T T and lost (-$32 net)
                    Hero showed 9 5 and won $62 ($30 net)


                    Donīt think villainīs call with that hand is good, blocks so many bluffs.

                    --------------------------------------------------------------
                      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                      SB: $68.15 (136.3 bb)
                      BB: $69.64 (139.3 bb)
                      UTG: $86.48 (173 bb)
                      Hero (MP): $88.54 (177.1 bb)
                      CO: $62.48 (125 bb)
                      BTN: $50 (100 bb)

                      Preflop: Hero is MP with 5 5
                      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.25, CO folds, BTN raises to $4.50, SB folds, BB calls $4, Hero calls $3.25

                      Flop: ($13.75) 4 5 T (3 players)
                      BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $7.50, BB folds, Hero calls $7.50

                      Turn: ($28.75) 6 (2 players)
                      Hero checks, BTN checks

                      River: ($28.75) 3 (2 players)
                      Hero bets $76.54 and is all-in, BTN folds

                      Results: $28.75 pot ($1.44 rake)
                      Final Board: 4 5 T 6 3
                      Hero mucked 5 5 and won $27.31 ($15.31 net)
                      BTN mucked and lost (-$12 net)


                      Interesting river, hard to find any bluffs in my range so I could be betting really small here maybe...

                      ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                        Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                        SB: $115.05 (115.1 bb)
                        BB: $100 (100 bb)
                        UTG: $149.65 (149.7 bb)
                        Hero (MP): $107.33 (107.3 bb)
                        CO: $141.92 (141.9 bb)
                        BTN: $117.71 (117.7 bb)

                        Preflop: Hero is MP with 7 8
                        UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, BB raises to $8.50, Hero calls $6

                        Flop: ($17.50) 2 7 T (2 players)
                        BB checks, Hero bets $4.32, BB calls $4.32

                        Turn: ($26.14) 9 (2 players)
                        BB checks, Hero bets $22, BB folds

                        Results: $26.14 pot ($1.31 rake)
                        Final Board: 2 7 T 9
                        BB mucked and lost (-$12.82 net)
                        Hero mucked 7 8 and won $24.83 ($12.01 net)


                        Good board for my range. I think 3 barreling this hand would be the play here.

                        --------------------------------------------------------------

                          Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                          SB: $93.84 (187.7 bb)
                          BB: $85.18 (170.4 bb)
                          UTG: $50 (100 bb)
                          MP: $56.71 (113.4 bb)
                          CO: $28.88 (57.8 bb)
                          Hero (BTN): $74.19 (148.4 bb)

                          Preflop: Hero is BTN with A K
                          UTG raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds

                          Flop: ($3.75) Q 6 A (2 players)
                          UTG checks, Hero bets $1.17, UTG calls $1.17

                          Turn: ($6.09) 9 (2 players)
                          UTG checks, Hero bets $5, UTG raises to $13, Hero folds

                          Results: $16.09 pot ($0.80 rake)
                          Final Board: Q 6 A 9
                          UTG mucked and won $15.29 ($7.62 net)
                          Hero mucked A K and lost (-$7.67 net)


                          Folded this pretty quickly. Multitabling reg check-raising turn with bluff with this sizing? Seems very unlikely after I bet so large
                          TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                          Old 01-19-2019, 04:42 AM   #83
                          TheEducatedGuesser
                          centurion
                           
                          TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                           
                          Join Date: Aug 2018
                          Posts: 113
                          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                          Cash game project update:





                            Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                            Hero (SB): $100 (100 bb)
                            BB: $145.86 (145.9 bb)
                            MP: $112.32 (112.3 bb)
                            CO: $100 (100 bb)
                            BTN: $112.36 (112.4 bb)

                            Preflop: Hero is SB with J J
                            3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks

                            Flop: ($2) 3 8 J (2 players)
                            Hero checks, BB bets $1.90, Hero calls $1.90

                            Turn: ($5.80) 8 (2 players)
                            Hero checks, BB bets $5.51, Hero calls $5.51

                            River: ($16.82) 3 (2 players)
                            Hero checks, BB bets $15.98, Hero raises to $91.59 and is all-in, BB calls $75.61

                            Results: $200 pot ($2.50 rake)
                            Final Board: 3 8 J 8 3
                            Hero showed J J and won $197.50 ($97.50 net)
                            BB showed 7 8 and lost (-$100 net)


                            Mixing some limping SB with big pocket pairs. After that hand plays itself.

                            -----------------------------------------------------------

                              Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                              SB: $65.52 (131 bb)
                              Hero (BB): $56.58 (113.2 bb)
                              UTG: $104.74 (209.5 bb)
                              MP: $54.58 (109.2 bb)
                              CO: $49.75 (99.5 bb)
                              BTN: $50 (100 bb)

                              Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 5
                              UTG raises to $1.23, 4 folds, Hero raises to $5.50, UTG calls $4.27

                              Flop: ($11.25) 3 Q 7 (2 players)
                              Hero bets $5.50, UTG calls $5.50

                              Turn: ($22.25) 9 (2 players)
                              Hero bets $12, UTG calls $12

                              River: ($46.25) K (2 players)
                              Hero bets $33.58 and is all-in, UTG folds

                              Results: $46.25 pot ($2 rake)
                              Final Board: 3 Q 7 9 K
                              Hero mucked 6 5 and won $44.25 ($21.25 net)
                              UTG mucked and lost (-$23 net)


                              Good board to triple this hand. Villain might not call all his JTs with backdoors against 50% flop cbet which makes this barrel better.

                              ----------------------------------------------------------

                                Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                SB: $42.15 (84.3 bb)
                                BB: $68.83 (137.7 bb)
                                UTG: $33.50 (67 bb)
                                MP: $50 (100 bb)
                                CO: $54.52 (109 bb)
                                Hero (BTN): $50.75 (101.5 bb)

                                Preflop: Hero is BTN with 5 3
                                3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB folds, BB calls $0.50

                                Flop: ($2.25) 2 A 3 (2 players)
                                BB checks, Hero bets $0.71, BB raises to $3, Hero calls $2.29

                                Turn: ($8.25) A (2 players)
                                BB bets $5.25, Hero calls $5.25

                                River: ($18.75) 8 (2 players)
                                BB checks, Hero bets $41.50 and is all-in, BB folds

                                Results: $18.75 pot ($0.94 rake)
                                Final Board: 2 A 3 A 8
                                BB mucked and lost (-$9.25 net)
                                Hero mucked 5 3 and won $17.81 ($8.56 net)


                                BB had very nitty stats, maybe he folded trips here...

                                ----------------------------------------------------------
                                  Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                  Hero (SB): $166.51 (166.5 bb)
                                  BB: $157.47 (157.5 bb)
                                  MP1: $48.88 (48.9 bb)
                                  MP2: $119.79 (119.8 bb)
                                  MP3: $137 (137 bb)
                                  CO: $100.27 (100.3 bb)
                                  BTN: $131 (131 bb)

                                  Preflop: Hero is SB with J J
                                  4 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, Hero raises to $13, BB folds, BTN raises to $28, Hero raises to $166.51 and is all-in, BTN calls $103 and is all-in

                                  Flop: ($263) T 5 A (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                  Turn: ($263) 4 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                  River: ($263) 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                  Results: $263 pot ($2.50 rake)
                                  Final Board: T 5 A 4 8
                                  Hero showed J J and won $0.00 (-$131 net)
                                  BTN showed Q Q and won $260.50 ($129.50 net)


                                  Canīt see any other way to play JJ here SB vs BTN, although people are so nitty with their 4bets...

                                  ---------------------------------------------------------

                                    Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                    SB: $62.65 (125.3 bb)
                                    BB: $46.15 (92.3 bb)
                                    UTG: $212.65 (425.3 bb)
                                    MP: $54.34 (108.7 bb)
                                    CO: $56.20 (112.4 bb)
                                    Hero (BTN): $124.95 (249.9 bb)

                                    Preflop: Hero is BTN with K A
                                    3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB raises to $3, BB calls $2.50, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $7, BB calls $7

                                    Flop: ($30) 6 T A (3 players)
                                    SB bets $17, BB folds, Hero raises to $63.88, SB calls $35.65 and is all-in

                                    Turn: ($135.30) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                    River: ($135.30) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                                    Results: $135.30 pot ($2 rake)
                                    Final Board: 6 T A 9 4
                                    SB showed A Q and lost (-$62.65 net)
                                    BB mucked and lost (-$10 net)
                                    Hero showed K A and won $133.30 ($70.65 net)


                                    Vs. 4-tabling reg, interesting lead on the flop. I think he is not supposed to do that, but might want to check this hand later.

                                    ----------------------------------------------------

                                      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                      SB: $79.43 (158.9 bb)
                                      BB: $93 (186 bb)
                                      Hero (UTG): $74.05 (148.1 bb)
                                      MP: $50 (100 bb)
                                      CO: $173.05 (346.1 bb)
                                      BTN: $47.80 (95.6 bb)

                                      Preflop: Hero is UTG with A A
                                      Hero raises to $1.25, MP folds, CO raises to $5, BTN calls $5, 2 folds, Hero raises to $74.05 and is all-in, CO folds, BTN calls $42.80 and is all-in

                                      Flop: ($101.35) 5 9 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                      Turn: ($101.35) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                      River: ($101.35) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                      Results: $101.35 pot ($2 rake)
                                      Final Board: 5 9 8 3 6
                                      Hero showed A A and won $99.35 ($51.55 net)
                                      BTN showed Q Q and lost (-$47.80 net)


                                      Cold calling 3bet with these positions in place is usually TT-QQ, AK when flatter is a reg. I think I will get more calls by just shoving it in and repping something like JJ QQ and AK here.
                                      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                      Old 01-20-2019, 03:12 PM   #84
                                      TheEducatedGuesser
                                      centurion
                                       
                                      TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                       
                                      Join Date: Aug 2018
                                      Posts: 113
                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                      One bet for tonightsī KC-NE: NE moneyline 2,5 @Betfair

                                      It seems it doesnīt matter who they have in their roster, Brady+Belichick going to just deliver it.

                                      ------------------------------------------------

                                      Cash game project already almost in midway:





                                        Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
                                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                        SB: $150.04 (150 bb)
                                        BB: $124.41 (124.4 bb)
                                        UTG+1: $100 (100 bb)
                                        UTG+2: $289.51 (289.5 bb)
                                        MP1: $49.89 (49.9 bb)
                                        Hero (MP2): $146 (146 bb)
                                        MP3: $102.50 (102.5 bb)
                                        CO: $104 (104 bb)
                                        BTN: $98.24 (98.2 bb)

                                        Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4 5
                                        3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, SB raises to $5, BB folds, Hero calls $2.50

                                        Flop: ($11) 8 7 6 (2 players)
                                        SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $16, Hero raises to $43, SB raises to $145.04 and is all-in, Hero calls $98 and is all-in

                                        Turn: ($293) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                        River: ($293) 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                        Results: $293 pot ($2.50 rake)
                                        Final Board: 8 7 6 2 5
                                        SB showed K K and won $0.00 (-$146 net)
                                        Hero showed 4 5 and won $290.50 ($144.50 net)


                                        Can it get any easier than this?

                                        --------------------------------------------------------

                                          Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
                                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                          SB: $116.25 (116.3 bb)
                                          Hero (BB): $147.85 (147.9 bb)
                                          UTG+2: $103 (103 bb)
                                          MP1: $100 (100 bb)
                                          MP2: $105.05 (105.1 bb)
                                          MP3: $173.03 (173 bb)
                                          CO: $70.62 (70.6 bb)
                                          BTN: $55.50 (55.5 bb)

                                          Preflop: Hero is BB with A K
                                          3 folds, MP3 raises to $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2.50, Hero raises to $15, MP3 calls $12, SB folds

                                          Flop: ($33) Q 4 A (2 players)
                                          Hero checks, MP3 bets $20, Hero calls $20

                                          Turn: ($73) J (2 players)
                                          Hero checks, MP3 checks

                                          River: ($73) 2 (2 players)
                                          Hero bets $23.27, MP3 calls $23.27

                                          Results: $119.54 pot ($2.50 rake)
                                          Final Board: Q 4 A J 2
                                          Hero showed A K and lost (-$58.27 net)
                                          MP3 showed Q Q and won $117.04 ($58.77 net)


                                          That flop sizing is super scary, maybe 25% cbet would give enough info to be able fold to a flop raise....

                                          ---------------------------------------------

                                            Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
                                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                            SB: $100.68 (100.7 bb)
                                            BB: $100 (100 bb)
                                            MP1: $44.48 (44.5 bb)
                                            MP2: $35.95 (36 bb)
                                            MP3: $26.32 (26.3 bb)
                                            Hero (CO): $103.77 (103.8 bb)
                                            BTN: $146.16 (146.2 bb)

                                            Preflop: Hero is CO with Q Q
                                            MP1 raises to $2.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $19, Hero folds

                                            Results: $15.50 pot
                                            MP1 mucked and won $15.50 ($8.50 net)


                                            Against ultranit.
                                            TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                            Old 01-24-2019, 04:16 AM   #85
                                            TheEducatedGuesser
                                            centurion
                                             
                                            TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                             
                                            Join Date: Aug 2018
                                            Posts: 113
                                            Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                            Referees robbed Saintīs SB spot and a decent chunk from my potential season winnings






                                              Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                              SB: $178.69 (178.7 bb)
                                              BB: $126.06 (126.1 bb)
                                              UTG: $55.88 (55.9 bb)
                                              MP: $303.84 (303.8 bb)
                                              CO: $96.90 (96.9 bb)
                                              Hero (BTN): $139.98 (140 bb)

                                              Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q T
                                              UTG raises to $2.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.40, 2 folds

                                              Flop: ($6.30) T 2 5 (2 players)
                                              UTG bets $1.91, Hero calls $1.91

                                              Turn: ($10.12) J (2 players)
                                              UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

                                              River: ($20.12) K (2 players)
                                              UTG checks, Hero bets $20, UTG calls $20

                                              Results: $60.12 pot ($2.50 rake)
                                              Final Board: T 2 5 J K
                                              UTG showed J J and won $57.62 ($28.31 net)
                                              Hero showed Q T and lost (-$29.31 net)


                                              Should be folding turn, card that hits my range and Villain just keeps betting usually means they have it.

                                              -----------------------------------------------

                                                Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                SB: $86.52 (86.5 bb)
                                                BB: $105.63 (105.6 bb)
                                                UTG: $76.83 (76.8 bb)
                                                MP: $284.83 (284.8 bb)
                                                Hero (CO): $103.76 (103.8 bb)
                                                BTN: $100 (100 bb)

                                                Preflop: Hero is CO with J T
                                                2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero raises to $24, BTN calls $16

                                                Flop: ($49.50) 3 9 8 (2 players)
                                                Hero bets $16, BTN folds

                                                Results: $49.50 pot ($2.48 rake)
                                                Final Board: 3 9 8
                                                Hero mucked J T and won $47.02 ($23.02 net)
                                                BTN mucked and lost (-$24 net)


                                                Btn was 3betting CO and even MP openings with wide range (14-17% of hands). I could call, but I want to punish his wide range.

                                                Strategy in these 4bet pots can change significantly after just small modifications to playerīs actions. Here I should be checking almost whole range looking for a check shove. However, I donīt think V is going to be stabbing enough (he should use 20-25% majority of time) and same time I suspect he will be over folding to my small cbets. Winning the pot right away with J high is of course very big victory here. My strong 4bet range will protect me against flop raises that might blow me off from my equity. Does my reasoning make any sense here or am I just making up stuff to justify my actions?

                                                ----------------------------------------------

                                                  Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                  SB: $240.96 (241 bb)
                                                  BB: $100 (100 bb)
                                                  UTG: $100 (100 bb)
                                                  Hero (MP): $101 (101 bb)
                                                  CO: $224.15 (224.2 bb)
                                                  BTN: $146.76 (146.8 bb)

                                                  Preflop: Hero is MP with 6 5
                                                  UTG folds, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, BB raises to $9, Hero calls $7

                                                  Flop: ($18.50) 9 2 9 (2 players)
                                                  BB bets $5.80, Hero calls $5.80

                                                  Turn: ($30.10) 2 (2 players)
                                                  BB checks, Hero bets $8, BB calls $8

                                                  River: ($46.10) 4 (2 players)
                                                  BB checks, Hero bets $78.20 and is all-in, BB folds

                                                  Results: $46.10 pot ($2.30 rake)
                                                  Final Board: 9 2 9 2 4
                                                  BB mucked and lost (-$22.80 net)
                                                  Hero mucked 6 5 and won $43.80 ($21 net)


                                                  I guess flop + turn pretty standard, on the river I thought I am entitled to be very polarized with my bet sizes, which turned out to be the right assumption:

                                                  TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                  Old 01-27-2019, 06:40 AM   #86
                                                  TheEducatedGuesser
                                                  centurion
                                                   
                                                  TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                   
                                                  Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                  Posts: 113
                                                  Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                  Last 10k hands have been difficult, but nearing finishing this miniature project:





                                                  Going to play some tournaments today and will finish cash game project next week.

                                                  ----------------------------------------------------

                                                    Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                    SB: $51.37 (102.7 bb)
                                                    BB: $49.85 (99.7 bb)
                                                    UTG: $58.01 (116 bb)
                                                    Hero (MP): $54.26 (108.5 bb)
                                                    CO: $47.20 (94.4 bb)
                                                    BTN: $59.74 (119.5 bb)

                                                    Preflop: Hero is MP with 9 8
                                                    UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, SB calls $1, BB folds

                                                    Flop: ($3) 9 6 8 (2 players)
                                                    SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB raises to $6.50, Hero raises to $16, SB raises to $50.12 and is all-in, Hero calls $34.12

                                                    Turn: ($103.24) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                                    River: ($103.24) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                                                    Results: $103.24 pot ($2.00 rake)
                                                    Final Board: 9 6 8 4 5
                                                    SB showed 6 6 and won $101.24 ($49.87 net)
                                                    Hero showed 9 8 and lost (-$51.37 net)


                                                    Wasnīt so afraid of T7 or 57 since villain is coldcalling from sb.

                                                    ------------------------------------------------------

                                                      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                      SB: $50 (100 bb)
                                                      BB: $74.70 (149.4 bb)
                                                      UTG: $55.33 (110.7 bb)
                                                      MP: $51.71 (103.4 bb)
                                                      Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
                                                      BTN: $52.06 (104.1 bb)

                                                      Preflop: Hero is CO with K A
                                                      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BTN raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $11, BTN raises to $52.06 and is all-in, Hero calls $39 and is all-in

                                                      Flop: ($100.75) 4 9 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                      Turn: ($100.75) 4 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                      River: ($100.75) J (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                                      Results: $100.75 pot ($2 rake)
                                                      Final Board: 4 9 9 4 J
                                                      Hero showed K A and lost (-$50 net)
                                                      BTN showed K K and won $98.75 ($48.75 net)


                                                      Breakeven call at best, if btn is shoving JJ+ AKo, AKs.

                                                      ------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                        SB: $87.70 (175.4 bb)
                                                        BB: $153.30 (306.6 bb)
                                                        UTG: $54.74 (109.5 bb)
                                                        MP: $130.98 (262 bb)
                                                        CO: $15.70 (31.4 bb)
                                                        Hero (BTN): $71.51 (143 bb)

                                                        Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
                                                        UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $4.50, SB raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero calls $7.50

                                                        Flop: ($26) 6 Q 9 (2 players)
                                                        SB bets $15.04, Hero calls $15.04

                                                        Turn: ($56.08) 4 (2 players)
                                                        SB bets $60.50, Hero folds

                                                        Results: $56.08 pot ($2 rake)
                                                        Final Board: 6 Q 9 4
                                                        SB mucked and won $54.08 ($27.04 net)
                                                        Hero mucked Q Q and lost (-$27.04 net)


                                                        That turn card...

                                                        ---------------------------------------------------------

                                                        Watched very interesting video of Googleīs Deepmind AI playing against professional Starcraft 2 human players:



                                                        It played some games with very weird style which pros havenīt ever seen. Program ran on ordinary home computer and it was taught to play by watching human playerīs replays, imitating those plays and then playing against itself, vs multiple different iterations. It is said in the video, that in a week it had played amount of games which count 200 years of playing in real life.

                                                        The best iterations rose to the top and those were the ones that played against pros. In some way it same evolutionary process happens in poker too. First all players play pretty similar strategies, but every now and then emerges "mutation", player that plays very different strategy. If it is successful, other players start copying that style and the process continues.
                                                        TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                        Old 01-27-2019, 11:37 PM   #87
                                                        TheEducatedGuesser
                                                        centurion
                                                         
                                                        TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                         
                                                        Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                        Posts: 113
                                                        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                        What a start for this year, got my first 5 fig score and my Stars bankroll got fat really fast:



                                                        Tomorrow 10 hour work shift, but sleeping is not going to be easy...
                                                        TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                        Old 01-30-2019, 10:23 AM   #88
                                                        TheEducatedGuesser
                                                        centurion
                                                         
                                                        TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                         
                                                        Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                        Posts: 113
                                                        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                        Finished my cash game project:



                                                        Final stats:



                                                        Really enjoyed playing cash games and I think I could be winning player in regular NL100 tables already. Not by huge margin, but maybe around 3-4 bb/100. Continuing playing those games without rakeback is obviously not appealing.

                                                        -------------------------------------------------------------

                                                        Reviewed some key hands from that bankroll doubling MTT score:

                                                          Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (12,500/25,000 blinds, 3,125 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                          SB: 538,666 (21.5 bb)
                                                          Hero (BB): 500,924 (20 bb)
                                                          UTG+1: 309,934 (12.4 bb)
                                                          UTG+2: 148,352 (5.9 bb)
                                                          MP1: 856,637 (34.3 bb)
                                                          MP2: 274,386 (11 bb)
                                                          MP3: 877,973 (35.1 bb)
                                                          CO: 221,918 (8.9 bb)
                                                          BTN: 626,136 (25 bb)

                                                          Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 T
                                                          7 folds, SB raises to 52,500, Hero calls 27,500

                                                          Flop: (133,125) 6 6 Q (2 players)
                                                          SB bets 50,000, Hero calls 50,000

                                                          Turn: (233,125) 3 (2 players)
                                                          SB bets 50,000, Hero calls 50,000

                                                          River: (333,125) J (2 players)
                                                          SB bets 383,041 and is all-in, Hero calls 345,299 and is all-in

                                                          Results: 1,023,723 pot
                                                          Final Board: 6 6 Q 3 J
                                                          SB showed 9 4 and lost (-500,924 net)
                                                          Hero showed 6 T and won 1,023,723 (522,799 net)


                                                          I have never understood why people minraise from SB... These are always nice stack boosts.

                                                          ----------------------------------------------------
                                                            Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (15,000/30,000 blinds, 3,750 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
                                                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                            SB: 1,084,832 (36.2 bb)
                                                            Hero (BB): 1,083,796 (36.1 bb)
                                                            UTG+2: 493,463 (16.4 bb)
                                                            MP1: 383,423 (12.8 bb)
                                                            MP2: 909,137 (30.3 bb)
                                                            MP3: 485,647 (16.2 bb)
                                                            CO: 653,371 (21.8 bb)
                                                            BTN: 695,986 (23.2 bb)

                                                            Preflop: Hero is BB with J J
                                                            3 folds, MP3 raises to 90,000, CO raises to 649,621 and is all-in, 2 folds, Hero raises to 1,080,046 and is all-in, MP3 calls 391,897 and is all-in

                                                            Flop: (1,826,139) 9 2 T (3 players, 3 are all-in)
                                                            Turn: (1,826,139) 3 (3 players, 3 are all-in)
                                                            River: (1,826,139) 9 (3 players, 3 are all-in)

                                                            Results: 1,826,139 pot
                                                            Final Board: 9 2 T 3 9
                                                            Hero showed J J and won 1,826,139 (1,172,768 net)
                                                            MP3 showed A K and lost (-485,647 net)
                                                            CO showed K A and lost (-653,371 net)


                                                            Huge 66-34 situation.

                                                            ---------------------------------------------------------

                                                              Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (70,000/140,000 blinds, 17,500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
                                                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                              SB: 1,848,652 (13.2 bb)
                                                              BB: 2,125,014 (15.2 bb)
                                                              UTG+2: 2,261,840 (16.2 bb)
                                                              MP1: 7,365,128 (52.6 bb)
                                                              MP2: 387,891 (2.8 bb)
                                                              MP3: 3,757,554 (26.8 bb)
                                                              Hero (CO): 3,924,372 (28 bb)
                                                              BTN: 2,024,086 (14.5 bb)

                                                              Preflop: Hero is CO with A T
                                                              2 folds, MP2 raises to 370,391 and is all-in, MP3 calls 370,391, Hero raises to 1,120,000, BTN folds, SB raises to 1,831,152 and is all-in, 2 folds, Hero calls 711,152

                                                              Flop: (4,683,086) 4 7 T (3 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                              Turn: (4,683,086) 4 (3 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                              River: (4,683,086) 8 (3 players, 2 are all-in)

                                                              Results: 4,683,086 pot
                                                              Final Board: 4 7 T 4 8
                                                              SB showed A K and lost (-1,848,652 net)
                                                              MP2 showed Q K and lost (-387,891 net)
                                                              Hero showed A T and won 4,683,086 (2,834,434 net)


                                                              I thought first flatter had many call-fold hands in his range. Have to call SBīs shove.

                                                              ----------------------------------------------

                                                                Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (80,000/160,000 blinds, 20,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                SB: 2,061,854 (12.9 bb)
                                                                BB: 2,287,908 (14.3 bb)
                                                                Hero (UTG+1): 6,319,606 (39.5 bb)
                                                                UTG+2: 1,160,378 (7.3 bb)
                                                                MP1: 2,618,717 (16.4 bb)
                                                                MP2: 7,488,713 (46.8 bb)
                                                                MP3: 2,242,803 (14 bb)
                                                                CO: 5,596,123 (35 bb)
                                                                BTN: 7,365,788 (46 bb)

                                                                Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q Q
                                                                Hero raises to 339,200, UTG+2 raises to 1,140,378 and is all-in, 5 folds, SB raises to 2,041,854 and is all-in, BB folds, Hero calls 1,702,654

                                                                Flop: (5,564,086) 5 7 T (3 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                                Turn: (5,564,086) 8 (3 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                                River: (5,564,086) J (3 players, 2 are all-in)

                                                                Results: 5,564,086 pot
                                                                Final Board: 5 7 T 8 J
                                                                SB showed A J and lost (-2,061,854 net)
                                                                Hero showed Q Q and won 5,564,086 (3,502,232 net)
                                                                UTG+2 showed Q A and lost (-1,160,378 net)


                                                                Another hold with 68% hand.

                                                                --------------------------------------------------------

                                                                  Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (100,000/200,000 blinds, 25,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
                                                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                  SB: 1,782,908 (8.9 bb)
                                                                  Hero (BB): 11,097,638 (55.5 bb)
                                                                  MP1: 3,427,917 (17.1 bb)
                                                                  MP2: 5,820,910 (29.1 bb)
                                                                  MP3: 4,280,606 (21.4 bb)
                                                                  CO: 5,211,123 (26.1 bb)
                                                                  BTN: 5,520,788 (27.6 bb)

                                                                  Preflop: Hero is BB with K K
                                                                  2 folds, MP3 raises to 4,255,606 and is all-in, 3 folds, Hero calls 4,055,606

                                                                  Flop: (8,786,212) 2 A Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                                                  Turn: (8,786,212) K (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                                                  River: (8,786,212) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                                                                  Results: 8,786,212 pot
                                                                  Final Board: 2 A Q K 5
                                                                  Hero showed K K and won 8,786,212 (4,505,606 net)
                                                                  MP3 showed 3 A and lost (-4,280,606 net)


                                                                  21bb shove with A5o?

                                                                  ----------------------------------------------------------

                                                                    Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (250,000/500,000 blinds, 62,500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                                                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                    SB: 7,259,123 (14.5 bb)
                                                                    BB: 13,495,670 (27 bb)
                                                                    UTG: 6,818,981 (13.6 bb)
                                                                    MP: 14,488,346 (29 bb)
                                                                    CO: 14,249,112 (28.5 bb)
                                                                    Hero (BTN): 17,274,676 (34.5 bb)

                                                                    Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
                                                                    2 folds, CO raises to 1,100,000, Hero raises to 17,212,176 and is all-in, 2 folds, CO calls 13,086,612 and is all-in

                                                                    Flop: (29,498,224) Q 6 A (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                                    Turn: (29,498,224) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                                    River: (29,498,224) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                                                    Results: 29,498,224 pot
                                                                    Final Board: Q 6 A 6 6
                                                                    CO showed K K and won 29,498,224 (15,249,112 net)
                                                                    Hero showed J J and lost (-14,249,112 net)


                                                                    Final two tables, I donīt know if I want to 3b-call this hand if he is not 4betting smaller pairs like 66-TT... ICM pressure is on him, so I think I can shove every pair here.

                                                                    -------------------------------------------------------------

                                                                      Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (700,000/1,400,000 blinds, 175,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
                                                                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                      SB: 42,530,213 (30.4 bb)
                                                                      BB: 56,696,279 (40.5 bb)
                                                                      Hero (BTN): 31,903,508 (22.8 bb)

                                                                      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q J
                                                                      Hero calls 1,400,000, SB folds, BB raises to 4,200,000, Hero calls 2,800,000

                                                                      Flop: (9,625,000) 8 2 J (2 players)
                                                                      BB bets 3,850,000, Hero calls 3,850,000

                                                                      Turn: (17,325,000) 8 (2 players)
                                                                      BB bets 6,930,000, Hero calls 6,930,000

                                                                      River: (31,185,000) 7 (2 players)
                                                                      BB checks, Hero checks

                                                                      Results: 31,185,000 pot
                                                                      Final Board: 8 2 J 8 7
                                                                      BB showed T T and lost (-15,155,000 net)
                                                                      Hero showed Q J and won 31,185,000 (16,030,000 net)


                                                                      Final 3, good hand to limp, especially being the smallest stack right?

                                                                      -----------------------------------------------------

                                                                      Super Bowl: I would like to bet 1st half under 28, but almost every bookie is offering only U27,5, which I dontīt want to take because 4*7=28.
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                                      Old 02-01-2019, 12:07 PM   #89
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser
                                                                      centurion
                                                                       
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                                       
                                                                      Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                                      Posts: 113
                                                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                      Havenīt still made any Super Bowl bets, but I left a bet pending on 1st half U 28,5 in Betfair Exchange, maybe somebody wants to take it.

                                                                      January was very good month in poker, ended up 12,2k, lifting my bankroll to 22,8k. Not going to change much, obviously one big MTT score doesnīt prove anything. Going to play some good 50īs MTTīs and occasional shots to best 100īs, like the new Sunday Million. Want also to collect good sample on NL/PLO100 to see whether I am winning player in those stakes.
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                                      Old 02-03-2019, 02:02 PM   #90
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser
                                                                      centurion
                                                                       
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                                       
                                                                      Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                                      Posts: 113
                                                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                      Super Bowl bet: Tom Brady MVP 2,25 @Betfair

                                                                      Basically Brady or Goff winning this and I am on Patriotīs side on this one.

                                                                      Before SB my NFL season betting stats are looking like this:

                                                                      155 bets

                                                                      ROI: 14,6%

                                                                      Winnings: 41,5 units

                                                                      Most (~50%) of the winnings came with the success of Baltimore and New Orleans. Gotta be satisfied with the results, this could have gone way way worse.
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                                      Old 02-03-2019, 02:32 PM   #91
                                                                      angeles
                                                                      old hand
                                                                       
                                                                      angeles's Avatar
                                                                       
                                                                      Join Date: Apr 2011
                                                                      Location: somewhere over the rainbow
                                                                      Posts: 1,772
                                                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                      No call in the saints game must have been soul crushing. Sick to see you're still crushing regardless.

                                                                      Hope you're right with the Pats tonight. Brady getting no.6 would be unreal.

                                                                      Cheers man
                                                                      angeles is online now   Reply With Quote
                                                                      Old 02-04-2019, 09:53 AM   #92
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser
                                                                      centurion
                                                                       
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                                       
                                                                      Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                                      Posts: 113
                                                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                      Made reservation to Rio between June 1st and 12th. My preliminary WSOP schedule looks like this:

                                                                      June 2nd: NLH Big 50 500$
                                                                      June 5th: NHL 6-max 1500$
                                                                      June 7th/8th: NLH Millionaire Maker 1500$

                                                                      Optional:

                                                                      June 3rd: NLH Deepstack 600$ (If busted early from Big50)
                                                                      June 9th: 8-game 1500$ (If busted from Milly Maker)
                                                                      June 10th: PLO Deepstack 600$ (If busted from Milly/8-game)



                                                                      Quote:
                                                                      Originally Posted by angeles View Post
                                                                      No call in the saints game must have been soul crushing. Sick to see you're still crushing regardless.

                                                                      Hope you're right with the Pats tonight. Brady getting no.6 would be unreal.

                                                                      Cheers man
                                                                      It is pretty rare to see mistakes like that from referees in NFL like in that Saints game. The way Brees and co fell short was truly sad...

                                                                      No MVP for Brady this time although he is now starting to decorate his other handīs fingers too with all those rings. It is hard to be a Jets fan, but maybe some day...
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                                      Old 02-04-2019, 12:08 PM   #93
                                                                      angeles
                                                                      old hand
                                                                       
                                                                      angeles's Avatar
                                                                       
                                                                      Join Date: Apr 2011
                                                                      Location: somewhere over the rainbow
                                                                      Posts: 1,772
                                                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                      Quote:
                                                                      Originally Posted by TheEducatedGuesser View Post
                                                                      Made reservation to Rio between June 1st and 12th. My preliminary WSOP schedule looks like this:

                                                                      June 2nd: NLH Big 50 500$
                                                                      June 5th: NHL 6-max 1500$
                                                                      June 7th/8th: NLH Millionaire Maker 1500$

                                                                      Optional:

                                                                      June 3rd: NLH Deepstack 600$ (If busted early from Big50)
                                                                      June 9th: 8-game 1500$ (If busted from Milly Maker)
                                                                      June 10th: PLO Deepstack 600$ (If busted from Milly/8-game)





                                                                      It is pretty rare to see mistakes like that from referees in NFL like in that Saints game. The way Brees and co fell short was truly sad...

                                                                      No MVP for Brady this time although he is now starting to decorate his other handīs fingers too with all those rings. It is hard to be a Jets fan, but maybe some day...
                                                                      haha too true. You guys need to hire Rex again imo :P


                                                                      angeles is online now   Reply With Quote
                                                                      Old 02-08-2019, 07:34 AM   #94
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser
                                                                      centurion
                                                                       
                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                                       
                                                                      Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                                      Posts: 113
                                                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                      I generally donīt like to base my poker strategy on printed books since they get old so fast. However, I ordered couple of them anyway

                                                                      I heard Jandasī book is more mathematical and therefore should last longer and Ken Loīs book is about mixed games, where I am not very experienced and this should work as a good cornerstone for further progress.





                                                                      ---------------------------------------------

                                                                      Have been playing mostly PLO/NL100 this month and one leak I have to plug is not to leave money on the table = valuebet thinner.

                                                                        Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                                                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                        SB: $100 (100 bb)
                                                                        BB: $12.29 (12.3 bb)
                                                                        UTG: $117.52 (117.5 bb)
                                                                        MP: $123.46 (123.5 bb)
                                                                        Hero (CO): $157.23 (157.2 bb)
                                                                        BTN: $100 (100 bb)

                                                                        Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
                                                                        UTG raises to $3, MP calls $3, Hero calls $3, 3 folds

                                                                        Flop: ($10.50) T 3 5 (3 players)
                                                                        UTG bets $6.69, MP folds, Hero calls $6.69

                                                                        Turn: ($23.88) 9 (2 players)
                                                                        UTG bets $13, Hero calls $13

                                                                        River: ($49.88) 3 (2 players)
                                                                        UTG checks, Hero checks

                                                                        Results: $49.88 pot ($2.49 rake)
                                                                        Final Board: T 3 5 9 3
                                                                        UTG showed K T and lost (-$22.69 net)
                                                                        Hero showed J J and won $47.39 ($24.70 net)


                                                                        Missed squeeze on preflop I donīt think people are checking enough overpairs on this exact river, so I think I should be valuebetting my jacks here, something like 20-30% sized bet.

                                                                        Something like in this hand:

                                                                          Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                                                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                          SB: $137.83 (137.8 bb)
                                                                          BB: $100 (100 bb)
                                                                          UTG: $98.66 (98.7 bb)
                                                                          MP: $136.17 (136.2 bb)
                                                                          CO: $102 (102 bb)
                                                                          Hero (BTN): $151.37 (151.4 bb)

                                                                          Preflop: Hero is BTN with A A
                                                                          3 folds, Hero raises to $2, SB folds, BB calls $1

                                                                          Flop: ($4.50) 5 4 3 (2 players)
                                                                          BB checks, Hero bets $1.11, BB calls $1.11

                                                                          Turn: ($6.72) K (2 players)
                                                                          BB bets $3, Hero calls $3

                                                                          River: ($12.72) J (2 players)
                                                                          BB checks, Hero bets $3.99, BB calls $3.99

                                                                          Results: $20.70 pot ($1.04 rake)
                                                                          Final Board: 5 4 3 K J
                                                                          BB mucked Q J and lost (-$10.10 net)
                                                                          Hero showed A A and won $19.66 ($9.56 net)


                                                                          ------------------------------------------------

                                                                          Quote:
                                                                          Originally Posted by angeles View Post
                                                                          haha too true. You guys need to hire Rex again imo :P
                                                                          Haha, that would be an adventure surely! I may sound too optimistic, but I believe in Gase+Darnold duo! Just donīt f up hiring bad free agents with all that salary cap money and next season should be interesting to watch. Good offensive line men + young RBīs, some good WRīs and unpredictable playbook plz
                                                                          TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                                          Old 02-17-2019, 07:38 AM   #95
                                                                          TheEducatedGuesser
                                                                          centurion
                                                                           
                                                                          TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                                           
                                                                          Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                                          Posts: 113
                                                                          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                          Haven't been able to play online because managed to spill coffee on my laptop and it didn't start after that. Played some live first time in months. I did one 8-hour session in live nl200 table and managed to win little under 600€. It was very relaxing session, almost nobody threebets or puts you in tough position pre or post. If wsop is even half as juicy as the live games/tourneys I have played so far in my life, it is going to be a great summer
                                                                          TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                                          Old 02-27-2019, 06:16 AM   #96
                                                                          TheEducatedGuesser
                                                                          centurion
                                                                           
                                                                          TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                                           
                                                                          Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                                          Posts: 113
                                                                          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                          Very slow month in poker, but managed to play quick MTT session yesterday. Also got new PC with double the RAM and i7 CPU, so PIOing bigger trees is now possible for me.

                                                                            Poker Stars, $18 Buy-in (75/150 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                                                                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                            SB: 9,485 (63.2 bb)
                                                                            BB: 10,000 (66.7 bb)
                                                                            UTG: 8,800 (58.7 bb)
                                                                            MP: 10,000 (66.7 bb)
                                                                            CO: 10,000 (66.7 bb)
                                                                            Hero (BTN): 13,641 (90.9 bb)

                                                                            Preflop: Hero is BTN with 4 6
                                                                            3 folds, Hero raises to 300, SB folds, BB calls 150

                                                                            Flop: (795) K 7 5 (2 players)
                                                                            BB checks, Hero bets 750, BB calls 750

                                                                            Turn: (2,295) 5 (2 players)
                                                                            BB checks, Hero bets 1,148, BB calls 1,148

                                                                            River: (4,591) 7 (2 players)
                                                                            BB checks, Hero bets 1,515, BB folds

                                                                            Results: 4,591 pot
                                                                            Final Board: K 7 5 5 7
                                                                            BB mucked and lost (-2,218 net)
                                                                            Hero mucked 4 6 and won 4,591 (2,373 net)


                                                                            Felt like I was just clicking when played this hand. Decided to go full pot cbet holding just 6-high. On the turn I was trying to keep villainīs draws in to get him to fold more hands on the river. Final 30% bet basically just to get rid of his missed draws.

                                                                            On the flop he has roughly same amount of Kīs and draws:





                                                                            ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                              Poker Stars, $24.55 Buy-in (60/120 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                              SB: 10,337 (86.1 bb)
                                                                              BB: 10,270 (85.6 bb)
                                                                              UTG+1: 5,189 (43.2 bb)
                                                                              UTG+2: 13,325 (111 bb)
                                                                              MP1: 9,163 (76.4 bb)
                                                                              MP2: 8,103 (67.5 bb)
                                                                              MP3: 11,506 (95.9 bb)
                                                                              Hero (CO): 10,000 (83.3 bb)
                                                                              BTN: 12,026 (100.2 bb)

                                                                              Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
                                                                              UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 252, 2 folds, MP3 calls 252, Hero raises to 980, 4 folds, MP3 calls 728

                                                                              Flop: (2,527) 7 8 3 (2 players)
                                                                              MP3 checks, Hero bets 632, MP3 calls 632

                                                                              Turn: (3,791) 2 (2 players)
                                                                              MP3 checks, Hero bets 1,251, MP3 raises to 7,544, Hero raises to 8,373 and is all-in, MP3 calls 829

                                                                              River: (20,537) A (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                                                                              Results: 20,537 pot
                                                                              Final Board: 7 8 3 2 A
                                                                              MP3 showed 5 4 and won 20,537 (10,537 net)
                                                                              Hero showed J J and lost (-10,000 net)


                                                                              Interestingly Villain can lead over 30% of hands on the 2d turn... I ended up using way too little bet sizes but I guess it ended well if getting money in as a 68% favourite.
                                                                              TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                                              Old 03-08-2019, 05:43 PM   #97
                                                                              TheEducatedGuesser
                                                                              centurion
                                                                               
                                                                              TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                                               
                                                                              Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                                              Posts: 113
                                                                              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                              Still no proper time to get full sessions, but lately have been playing some amounts of cash on RIO poker and Unibet. Games are good, but it is hard to analyse hands when you have to take a screenshot of a hand history to be able to record the hand for later studying.

                                                                              It seems I canīt recover my files from my old SSD, so bye bye few hundred thousand hands database...

                                                                              Anyway, tomorrow will be playing some good old MTTīs. Adding some NLO8/PLO8 tourneys, they seem juicy enough.
                                                                              TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                                              Old 03-11-2019, 12:06 PM   #98
                                                                              TheEducatedGuesser
                                                                              centurion
                                                                               
                                                                              TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                                               
                                                                              Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                                              Posts: 113
                                                                              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                              Month is around -900€ at the moment, somehow managed to lose pretty big without even playing much. Then again my last losing month was in July, so I sort of had this coming.


                                                                                Poker Stars, $45 Buy-in (700/1,400 blinds, 175 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
                                                                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                                SB: 66,295 (47.4 bb)
                                                                                Hero (BB): 29,346 (21 bb)
                                                                                MP1: 49,282 (35.2 bb)
                                                                                MP2: 15,191 (10.9 bb)
                                                                                MP3: 38,981 (27.8 bb)
                                                                                CO: 97,948 (70 bb)
                                                                                BTN: 20,861 (14.9 bb)

                                                                                Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 A
                                                                                5 folds, SB raises to 66,120 and is all-in, Hero calls 27,771 and is all-in

                                                                                Flop: (59,567) 2 K 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                                                Turn: (59,567) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                                                River: (59,567) J (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                                                                Results: 59,567 pot
                                                                                Final Board: 2 K 8 3 J
                                                                                SB showed 8 A and won 59,567 (30,221 net)
                                                                                Hero showed 9 A and lost (-29,346 net)


                                                                                In the money, something like 60 left. I had reggy vibes about the opponent, so called pretty quickly. He can shove 50% of all hands here, but I gave him 21% shove range of 77-22,ATs-A2s,AJo-A2o,K8s+,KJo+,QTs+,QJo,JTs,T9s,98s,87s. Against this range A9o is a snap call, as are all (even 22) pairs too. Have to be careful with these spots since some people play super scared when deep in a tournament and you can see them shoving something like AK here.

                                                                                ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                                                  Poker Stars, $45 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
                                                                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                                  SB: 7,094 (17.7 bb)
                                                                                  BB: 18,926 (47.3 bb)
                                                                                  UTG+2: 14,901 (37.3 bb)
                                                                                  MP1: 16,800 (42 bb)
                                                                                  Hero (MP2): 27,732 (69.3 bb)
                                                                                  MP3: 8,049 (20.1 bb)
                                                                                  CO: 5,212 (13 bb)
                                                                                  BTN: 11,949 (29.9 bb)

                                                                                  Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q A
                                                                                  UTG+2 raises to 880, MP1 folds, Hero calls 880, 4 folds, BB calls 480

                                                                                  Flop: (3,240) T 9 K (3 players)
                                                                                  BB checks, UTG+2 bets 1,069, Hero calls 1,069, BB folds

                                                                                  Turn: (5,378) 7 (2 players)
                                                                                  UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

                                                                                  River: (5,378) 4 (2 players)
                                                                                  UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

                                                                                  Results: 5,378 pot
                                                                                  Final Board: T 9 K 7 4
                                                                                  UTG+2 showed T J and won 5,378 (3,379 net)
                                                                                  Hero mucked Q A and lost (-1,999 net)


                                                                                  I think this is fine, betting 33% on the turn with Ac or Qc and setting up a river jam on any club should be fine too.

                                                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------

                                                                                    Poker Stars, $45 Buy-in (75/150 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
                                                                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                                    SB: 1,815 (12.1 bb)
                                                                                    BB: 4,940 (32.9 bb)
                                                                                    MP1: 3,018 (20.1 bb)
                                                                                    Hero (MP2): 6,182 (41.2 bb)
                                                                                    MP3: 3,744 (25 bb)
                                                                                    CO: 8,062 (53.7 bb)
                                                                                    BTN: 5,356 (35.7 bb)

                                                                                    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A 5
                                                                                    MP1 folds, Hero raises to 315, 4 folds, BB calls 165

                                                                                    Flop: (845) 5 A J (2 players)
                                                                                    BB checks, Hero bets 550, BB calls 550

                                                                                    Turn: (1,945) 4 (2 players)
                                                                                    BB checks, Hero bets 973, BB calls 973

                                                                                    River: (3,891) 7 (2 players)
                                                                                    BB checks, Hero bets 4,324 and is all-in, BB calls 3,082 and is all-in

                                                                                    Results: 10,055 pot
                                                                                    Final Board: 5 A J 4 7
                                                                                    BB showed 3 A and lost (-4,940 net)
                                                                                    Hero showed A 5 and won 10,055 (5,115 net)


                                                                                    BBīs call seems fine when so many draws missed, but I think it is those spots where only a small drop in IPīs bluffing frequency makes the call down not profitable.
                                                                                    TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                                                    Old 03-19-2019, 12:52 PM   #99
                                                                                    TheEducatedGuesser
                                                                                    centurion
                                                                                     
                                                                                    TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                                                     
                                                                                    Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                                                    Posts: 113
                                                                                    Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                                    Played a sunday session, where I ended up in lots of nasty spots. Made some tight folds which might have been bad:

                                                                                    https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...78/?highlight=

                                                                                    https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...78/?highlight=

                                                                                    I stepped down to NL50 zoom for a while to gain some confidence back and think I played fairly well:

                                                                                    [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                                                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                                    SB: $67.09 (134.2 bb)
                                                                                    Hero (BB): $115.32 (230.6 bb)
                                                                                    UTG: $55.70 (111.4 bb)
                                                                                    MP: $52.51 (105 bb)
                                                                                    CO: $84.22 (168.4 bb)
                                                                                    BTN: $55.72 (111.4 bb)

                                                                                    Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 T
                                                                                    UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5, MP calls $3.50

                                                                                    Flop: ($10.25) Q J Q (2 players)
                                                                                    Hero checks, MP checks

                                                                                    Turn: ($10.25) J (2 players)
                                                                                    Hero bets $11, MP folds

                                                                                    One of those situations where IP should be stabbing with small bet like 70% of the time to keep their range uncapped. I am confident I win this pot by betting big over 50% of the time after Villain checks the flop.

                                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                                                      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                                                                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                                      SB: $59.29 (118.6 bb)
                                                                                      BB: $236.76 (473.5 bb)
                                                                                      Hero (UTG): $121.31 (242.6 bb)
                                                                                      MP: $102.07 (204.1 bb)
                                                                                      CO: $165.93 (331.9 bb)
                                                                                      BTN: $76.74 (153.5 bb)

                                                                                      Preflop: Hero is UTG with K K
                                                                                      Hero raises to $1.25, MP folds, CO raises to $4.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $3.25

                                                                                      Flop: ($9.75) 6 5 T (2 players)
                                                                                      Hero checks, CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

                                                                                      Turn: ($17.75) 9 (2 players)
                                                                                      Hero bets $17, CO calls $17

                                                                                      River: ($51.75) K (2 players)
                                                                                      Hero bets $24.88, CO calls $24.88

                                                                                      Results: $101.51 pot ($2.00 rake)
                                                                                      Final Board: 6 5 T 9 K
                                                                                      Hero showed K K and won $99.51 ($49.13 net)
                                                                                      CO mucked A A and lost (-$50.38 net)


                                                                                      This was interesting hand. I decided to have no 4betting range this deep OOP. Turn is very favourable card for my range, so wanted to lead preferably with big bet. River is also very weird card. I assume Villain would have raised my turn lead with 78s if he chose to 3bet those combos, so question is how big part is JQs in his range?

                                                                                      I chose to valuebet with generic 50% size, but I could maybe go up to pot sized bet...
                                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                                                      Old 03-24-2019, 03:57 PM   #100
                                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser
                                                                                      centurion
                                                                                       
                                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                                                       
                                                                                      Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                                                      Posts: 113
                                                                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                                      Month down for -1400€, taking a week off from games now. I am going to leave cash games for a while because want to focus on tournament play two months prior to WSOP.

                                                                                      I have been looking for potential early value for NFL season 2019, and 49ers might be one team to give some thought. They were very hyped before last season, but several injuries led them to 4-12 record. Offensive line was 4th best when measured by RB yards (football outsiders). They also have no. 2 draft pick this year.
                                                                                      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote

                                                                                      Reply
                                                                                            

                                                                                      Thread Tools
                                                                                      Display Modes

                                                                                      Posting Rules
                                                                                      You may not post new threads
                                                                                      You may not post replies
                                                                                      You may not post attachments
                                                                                      You may not edit your posts

                                                                                      BB code is On
                                                                                      Smilies are On
                                                                                      [IMG] code is On
                                                                                      HTML code is Off


                                                                                      Forum Jump


                                                                                      All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:20 PM.


                                                                                      Powered by vBulletin®
                                                                                      Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
                                                                                      Copyright Đ 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
                                                                                       
                                                                                       
                                                                                      Poker Players - Streaming Live Online