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Old 11-13-2018, 12:08 PM   #51
TheEducatedGuesser
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Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

W10 NFL betting results: 3/5 right

Unibet is having some kind live odds boost promotion for ATP finals, they add 20% more to the odds, eg. 2.00 becomes 2.20. I donīt know anything about tennis, but maybe that 20% pushes the bet being +EV?

---------------------------------

    Poker Stars, $24.55 Buy-in (40/80 blinds, 10 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    Hero (SB): 9,961 (124.5 bb)
    BB: 8,992 (112.4 bb)
    UTG+2: 19,642 (245.5 bb)
    MP1: 9,435 (117.9 bb)
    MP2: 9,549 (119.4 bb)
    MP3: 10,133 (126.7 bb)
    CO: 9,954 (124.4 bb)
    BTN: 10,792 (134.9 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with Q A
    6 folds, Hero completes, BB raises to 240, Hero calls 160

    Flop: (560) 9 9 8 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BB bets 185, Hero calls 185

    Turn: (930) 7 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BB checks

    River: (930) K (2 players)
    Hero checks, BB bets 560, Hero raises to 1,864, BB folds

    Results: 2,050 pot
    Final Board: 9 9 8 7 K
    Hero mucked Q A and won 2,050 (1,055 net)
    BB mucked and lost (-995 net)


    Played a hand against some Stars Team Pro, I was way more confident doing this river c-r against somebody who I knew can fold Kx. That board hits typical limp-call range very well and I thought it is very unlikely some good player would slowplay monster hand against some random guy 100bb+ deep.
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    Old 11-14-2018, 04:46 PM   #52
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    Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

    Two bets for NFL W11:



    Got also free 100€ MTT ticket from sort of a lottery thing similar to Pokerstarīs chests. I donīt usually play on sundays in the middle of NFL season, but next sunday will be good time to use this ticket since I donīt have work next monday.

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    Old 11-17-2018, 05:13 AM   #53
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    Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

    NFL W11:

    JAX-PIT Keelan Cole U 3,5 receptions 1,66 @Betfair

    Betfair is still offering Cole bets. His snap counts in two previous games are 23% and 29% of offensive snaps. Jacksonvilleīs offense has been fairly good during this time, and there are no injuries in the remaining WR core, indicating that Coleīs role is remaining small. Last week Cole had zero receptions, before that he had 2 recs/game in two previous matches.
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    Old 11-18-2018, 05:18 AM   #54
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    Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

    NFL W11:

    BAL-CIN TE Mark Andrews O 19,5 receiving yards 2,00 @Betfair

    Cincinnati has the worst defense in NFL and Andrewsīs role has been getting bigger. BAL rookie QB Jackson is expected to get the start in this game and I think they will use TEīs more in the passing game and avoid long WR throws.

    Also waiting for more bookies to offer Lamar Jackson bets for this same game. Jackson over 30 rush yards would be nice to find somewhere. Found only o38,5 for 2,00 @Betfair, but I will probably bet that anyway if thereīs no better offers.
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    Old 11-18-2018, 05:30 AM   #55
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    Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

      Poker Stars, $18 Buy-in (60/120 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): 8,785 (73.2 bb)
      BB: 9,730 (81.1 bb)
      UTG+1: 10,000 (83.3 bb)
      UTG+2: 9,383 (78.2 bb)
      MP1: 10,165 (84.7 bb)
      MP2: 52,009 (433.4 bb)
      MP3: 924 (7.7 bb)
      CO: 9,605 (80 bb)
      BTN: 10,922 (91 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with T T
      UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 360, MP1 folds, MP2 calls 360, 2 folds, BTN calls 360, Hero calls 300, BB calls 240

      Flop: (1,935) 3 9 T (5 players)
      Hero bets 1,161, BB calls 1,161, UTG+2 raises to 9,008 and is all-in, MP2 folds, BTN raises to 10,547 and is all-in, Hero calls 7,249 and is all-in, BB calls 8,194 and is all-in

      Turn: (38,063) 6 (4 players, 4 are all-in)
      River: (38,063) 9 (4 players, 4 are all-in)

      Results: 38,063 pot
      Final Board: 3 9 T 6 9
      Hero showed T T and lost (-8,785 net)
      BB showed 9 9 and won 38,063 (28,333 net)
      UTG+2 showed Q Q and lost (-9,383 net)
      MP2 mucked and lost (-375 net)
      BTN showed T J and lost (-9,730 net)


      Crazy hand. Decided to donk because dynamic board and fairly good for my range. That lead set up pretty nice chain reaction!

      ----------------------------------------

        Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (75/150 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

        SB: 14,214 (94.8 bb)
        BB: 17,051 (113.7 bb)
        UTG: 9,938 (66.3 bb)
        MP: 8,601 (57.3 bb)
        Hero (CO): 12,042 (80.3 bb)
        BTN: 10,910 (72.7 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is CO with A 8
        2 folds, Hero raises to 318, 2 folds, BB calls 168

        Flop: (831) Q 7 9 (2 players)
        BB checks, Hero bets 300, BB calls 300

        Turn: (1,431) 5 (2 players)
        BB checks, Hero bets 859, BB calls 859

        River: (3,149) 8 (2 players)
        BB checks, Hero checks

        Results: 3,149 pot
        Final Board: Q 7 9 5 8
        BB showed J Q and won 3,149 (1,652 net)
        Hero mucked A 8 and lost (-1,497 net)


        This felt like I made a weak play not betting the river. I have pretty poor blockers, would be more inclined to bluff the river with AJcc.

        -------------------------------------------------------------

          IPoker, $2.85 Buy-in (400/800 blinds, 80 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

          SB: 47,785 (59.7 bb)
          BB: 28,710 (35.9 bb)
          Hero (CO): 61,968 (77.5 bb)
          BTN: 51,993 (65 bb)

          Preflop: Hero is CO with J K
          Hero raises to 1,644, BTN folds, SB calls 1,244, BB folds

          Flop: (4,408) 2 3 Q (2 players)
          SB bets 800, Hero calls 800

          Turn: (6,008) 9 (2 players)
          SB bets 800, Hero calls 800

          River: (7,608) 6 (2 players)
          SB bets 800, Hero raises to 4,800, SB folds

          Results: 9,208 pot
          Final Board: 2 3 Q 9 6
          SB mucked and lost (-4,124 net)
          Hero mucked J K and won 9,208 (5,084 net)


          3x mindonk --> raise river with any two.

          ---------------------------------------------------------

            Pacific, $20 Buy-in (1,000/2,000 blinds, 250 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

            SB: 43,810 (21.9 bb)
            BB: 42,062 (21 bb)
            UTG+2: 69,228 (34.6 bb)
            MP1: 64,983 (32.5 bb)
            MP2: 40,648 (20.3 bb)
            MP3: 85,420 (42.7 bb)
            CO: 102,850 (51.4 bb)
            Hero (BTN): 60,860 (30.4 bb)

            Preflop: Hero is BTN with T T
            5 folds, Hero raises to 4,087, SB folds, BB raises to 12,000, Hero folds

            Results: 11,174 pot
            BB mucked and won 11,174 (6,837 net)


            Final two tables. Would be more than happy to call a shove, but this small 3bet with 20 bbīs is too nutty for my taste.
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            Old 11-20-2018, 04:58 AM   #56
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            Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

            W11 results: 3/6 right

            Ended up not betting Lamar Jackson rushing over 38,5 yards, he ran over 100... Andrews got 19 yards when my bet was over 19,5 yards...

            But had big bet on Keelan Cole under 3,5 receptions, ended up having 0 recs and 23% off snap count. I hope Betfair keeps offering that one in future too.

            Season is now little over 10 units up and almost every season bet are still alive.

            Managed to get to final two tables with that free 100€ Supernova ticket, just couldnīt haul it in to the FT.
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            Old 11-22-2018, 05:51 AM   #57
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            Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

            W12: Thanksgiving game bets:



            Detroitīs run defense is pretty bad and CHI is starting secondary QB in this game. I think they are going to be fairly run heavy in this matchup.

            Same thing with the DAL-WAS, Dallas is a run-first team and Washington has serious problems with their offense. Both teams averaging under 40 total points/game this season.
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            Old 11-24-2018, 11:33 AM   #58
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            Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

            W12 bets:

            DEN-PIT PIT -3 1,943 @Pinnacle

            I think Steelers are going to bounce back after last weeksīs performance.

            IND-MIA IND TE Mo Allie-Cox scores a TD 7,5 @Betstars

            Leagues top 3 offensive line vs bottom 3 defensive line. I see Colts getting many redzone opportunities in this game where they have scored TD 68% of the time. Allie-Coxīs snaps have been increasing, hovering around 30-50%. This guy is very big redzone threat due to this basketball backround:

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3WKQBiPGbk

            -----------------------------------------

            Played few min of cash after my graveyard shift, there is still value in these games:

              Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

              SB: $131.44 (131.4 bb)
              BB: $106.32 (106.3 bb)
              UTG: $141.91 (141.9 bb)
              Hero (MP): $100 (100 bb)
              CO: $138.76 (138.8 bb)
              BTN: $144.42 (144.4 bb)

              Preflop: Hero is MP with A A
              UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero raises to $24, BTN calls $16

              Flop: ($49.50) J 3 K (2 players)
              Hero bets $21, BTN calls $21

              Turn: ($91.50) 8 (2 players)
              Hero bets $55 and is all-in, BTN calls $55

              River: ($201.50) 3 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

              Results: $201.50 pot ($3 rake)
              Final Board: J 3 K 8 3
              Hero showed A A and won $198.50 ($98.50 net)
              BTN showed J Q and lost (-$100 net)
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              Old 11-25-2018, 06:21 AM   #59
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              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

              One more bet NFL W12

              SEA-CAR O 46,5 2,00 @Pinnacle

              -------------------------------------------

              Been continuing my perverse journey in cash game world. Been on the better side of variance, so no reason to complain.

                Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                SB: $211.83 (105.9 bb)
                BB: $200 (100 bb)
                Hero (UTG): $460.38 (230.2 bb)
                MP: $202.75 (101.4 bb)
                CO: $200 (100 bb)
                BTN: $396.71 (198.4 bb)

                Preflop: Hero is UTG with K K
                Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, BTN calls $5, 2 folds

                Flop: ($13) K 4 Q (2 players)
                Hero checks, BTN checks

                Turn: ($13) 6 (2 players)
                Hero bets $12, BTN raises to $28, Hero raises to $78, BTN calls $50

                River: ($169) T (2 players)
                Hero bets $54.78, BTN calls $54.78

                Results: $278.56 pot ($3 rake)
                Final Board: K 4 Q 6 T
                Hero showed K K and won $275.56 ($137.78 net)
                BTN mucked 6 6 and lost (-$137.78 net)


                On the turn it is pretty obvious what villain has; x:ing the flop and suddenly raising my pot sized turn bet. On the river I was making either big 3/4 bet or try to induce raise with a blocker bet repping KQ.
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                Old 11-27-2018, 04:03 PM   #60
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                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                W12 results: 2/6 right and one bet (Mo Allie-Cox) was push. Colts are looking really good right now, too bad Houston won last night.

                --------------------------------------------------------

                  Pacific, $8 Buy-in (6,000/12,000 blinds, 1,500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                  SB: 314,900 (26.2 bb)
                  Hero (BB): 535,571 (44.6 bb)
                  UTG+2: 334,905 (27.9 bb)
                  MP1: 338,482 (28.2 bb)
                  MP2: 401,509 (33.5 bb)
                  MP3: 1,094,252 (91.2 bb)
                  CO: 129,510 (10.8 bb)
                  BTN: 535,012 (44.6 bb)

                  Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 7
                  2 folds, MP2 raises to 25,800, 4 folds, Hero calls 13,800

                  Flop: (69,600) 9 5 5 (2 players)
                  Hero checks, MP2 bets 18,792, Hero raises to 52,345, MP2 calls 33,553

                  Turn: (174,290) 7 (2 players)
                  Hero bets 88,645, MP2 calls 88,645

                  River: (351,580) T (2 players)
                  Hero bets 367,281 and is all-in, MP2 calls 233,219 and is all-in

                  Results: 818,018 pot
                  Final Board: 9 5 5 7 T
                  Hero showed 8 7 and lost (-401,509 net)
                  MP2 showed A 9 and won 818,018 (416,509 net)


                  I havenīt checked this hand with PIO yet, but this felt like a good spot to bluff. Going to x-call most of my flushdraws with two overs, so I think I can raise this combo against 25% cbet.
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                  Old 11-28-2018, 12:40 PM   #61
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                  Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                  One early W13 NFL bet:
                  JAX-IND IND -4 1,943 @Pinnacle

                  Fournette is not going to play in this game and Bortles is crumbling. I have 0 confidence in Jacksonville. Indy is playing well and their motivation is 100%.

                  -------------------------------------

                  Anatomy of small stakes MTTīs: Part two

                  It is highly profitable to cbet 100% with small sizings such as 20-30% of the pot. People are donking their pairs so much that their flop x range is generally super weak --> usually c-bet and/or double barreling gives us the pot.

                    IPoker, $4.75 Buy-in (300/600 blinds, 60 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                    SB: 14,280 (23.8 bb)
                    BB: 19,200 (32 bb)
                    Hero (CO): 14,580 (24.3 bb)
                    BTN: 16,320 (27.2 bb)

                    Preflop: Hero is CO with 8 Q
                    Hero raises to 1,300, BTN folds, SB calls 1,000, BB calls 700

                    Flop: (4,140) 8 T 2 (3 players)
                    SB checks, BB bets 4,140, Hero folds, SB calls 4,140

                    Turn: (12,420) 2 (2 players)
                    SB checks, BB bets 8,694, SB calls 8,694

                    River: (29,808) 6 (2 players)
                    SB bets 86 and is all-in, BB calls 86

                    Results: 29,980 pot
                    Final Board: 8 T 2 2 6
                    SB showed J Q and lost (-14,280 net)
                    BB showed 7 T and won 29,980 (15,700 net)


                    Full pot donk is TP, sometimes even top two. Many donk full pot even in A-high flops when holding A.

                      IPoker, $4.75 Buy-in (50/100 blinds, 10 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                      SB: 4,365 (43.7 bb)
                      BB: 1,340 (13.4 bb)
                      CO: 9,255 (92.6 bb)
                      Hero (BTN): 4,440 (44.4 bb)

                      Preflop: Hero is BTN with A A
                      CO folds, Hero raises to 200, SB folds, BB calls 100

                      Flop: (490) 4 T J (2 players)
                      BB bets 100, Hero raises to 400, BB raises to 1,130 and is all-in, Hero calls 730

                      Turn: (2,750) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                      River: (2,750) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                      Results: 2,750 pot
                      Final Board: 4 T J 4 Q
                      BB showed 8 T and lost (-1,340 net)
                      Hero mucked A A and won 2,750 (1,410 net)


                      Mindonk is middle/bottom pair. It is better to try to get the money in on the flop, because so many turns/rivers make them reluctant to call with their weak pairs.
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                      Old 11-29-2018, 06:19 AM   #62
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                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                      Couple of cash game hands:

                        Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                        SB: $37 (37 bb)
                        Hero (BB): $109.50 (109.5 bb)
                        UTG: $77.10 (77.1 bb)
                        MP: $100.52 (100.5 bb)
                        CO: $100 (100 bb)
                        BTN: $104.44 (104.4 bb)

                        Preflop: Hero is BB with A T
                        UTG folds, MP raises to $2, 2 folds, SB calls $1.50, Hero raises to $10, MP calls $8, SB calls $8

                        Flop: ($30) T 3 J (3 players)
                        SB checks, Hero bets $9.33, MP calls $9.33, SB folds

                        Turn: ($48.66) 8 (2 players)
                        Hero bets $34.40, MP folds

                        Results: $48.66 pot ($2.80 rake)
                        Final Board: T 3 J 8
                        Hero mucked A T and won $45.86 ($26.53 net)
                        MP mucked and lost (-$19.33 net)


                        Tried to isolate weaker player on small blind. On the turn MPīs range probably consists mainly of draws and decided to put max pressure blocking TJ and TT.

                        ----------------------------------------

                          Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                          SB: $100 (100 bb)
                          BB: $100 (100 bb)
                          MP: $179.05 (179.1 bb)
                          Hero (CO): $102.31 (102.3 bb)
                          BTN: $120.29 (120.3 bb)

                          Preflop: Hero is CO with J K
                          MP folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN calls $2.50, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

                          Flop: ($8) 2 2 6 (3 players)
                          BB checks, Hero bets $4, BTN raises to $10.22, BB folds, Hero raises to $29, BTN calls $18.78

                          Turn: ($66) Q (2 players)
                          Hero bets $16.42, BTN calls $16.42

                          River: ($98.84) 4 (2 players)
                          Hero bets $54.39 and is all-in, BTN folds

                          Results: $98.84 pot ($2.85 rake)
                          Final Board: 2 2 6 Q 4
                          Hero mucked J K and won $95.99 ($48.07 net)
                          BTN mucked and lost (-$47.92 net)


                          After nodelocking BTN doing this flop raise more frequently (~80% of the time) with pocket pairs 33-99, my raise with Kd doesnīt seem super awful. With this kind of runout I think it is mandatory to bet turn and shove river.
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                          Old 11-29-2018, 02:13 PM   #63
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                          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                          Smaller bet for tonightsīs game: DAL-NO Mark Ingram U 56,5 rushing yards.

                          1,8 @ Betfair, just taking this because others bookiesī line is 46 for Ingram.
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                          Old 12-02-2018, 12:37 AM   #64
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                          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                          Two more bets for W13 NFL:

                          ATL-BAL Lamar Jackson O 177,5 passing yards 1,90 @Betfair

                          PIT-LAC PIT -3 2,14 @Unibet (Oddsboost)

                          --------------------------------------------

                          Pokerwise, last month was nice success with profit of 1502€. Bankroll now at 9090€
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                          Old 12-03-2018, 01:29 PM   #65
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                          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                          W13: 2/5 right. Colts lost 0-6, what kind of result is that?

                          --------------------------------------

                          Cash game hands:


                            Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                            Hero (SB): $102.59 (102.6 bb)
                            BB: $154.26 (154.3 bb)
                            MP: $151.26 (151.3 bb)
                            CO: $100 (100 bb)
                            BTN: $258 (258 bb)

                            Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 9
                            MP calls $1, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks

                            Flop: ($3) 9 J 9 (3 players)
                            Hero checks, BB bets $1.81, MP calls $1.81, Hero raises to $6.77, BB folds, MP calls $4.96

                            Turn: ($18.35) 2 (2 players)
                            Hero bets $16, MP raises to $65, Hero folds

                            Results: $50.35 pot ($2.85 rake)
                            Final Board: 9 J 9 2
                            Hero mucked 8 9 and lost (-$23.77 net)
                            MP mucked and won $47.50 ($23.73 net)


                            UTG limper was a complete oddball, 56/0/0, did some postflop checkbacking with nuts etc... Villain has all better 9x and JJ also in his range, but maybe this should be just get it in and hope he was doing something stupid...

                            -------------------------------------------------------

                              Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                              SB: $251.52 (125.8 bb)
                              BB: $75.32 (37.7 bb)
                              UTG: $287.06 (143.5 bb)
                              Hero (MP): $309.82 (154.9 bb)
                              CO: $286.28 (143.1 bb)
                              BTN: $288.17 (144.1 bb)

                              Preflop: Hero is MP with K K
                              UTG folds, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, SB raises to $20, BB folds, Hero raises to $50, SB calls $30

                              Flop: ($102) 8 5 Q (2 players)
                              SB checks, Hero checks

                              Turn: ($102) 9 (2 players)
                              SB checks, Hero bets $32.67, SB calls $32.67

                              River: ($167.34) 7 (2 players)
                              SB bets $94, Hero calls $94

                              Results: $355.34 pot ($3.00 rake)
                              Final Board: 8 5 Q 9 7
                              SB showed A T and lost (-$176.67 net)
                              Hero showed K K and won $352.34 ($175.67 net)


                              More weird ****, this guy liked to 3bet preflop, having 26,7 as 3bet after 66 hands. Should be cbetting the flop small with my 4betrange being so strong. Not cbetting creates these weird spots, like on the river. TJs seems very unlikely, and what 6īs does villain have on the river? Only hand taking this line would be 78s in my opinion.
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                              Old 12-05-2018, 06:16 PM   #66
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                              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                              Had one score in MTT world:



                              Played also some cash alongside tourneys, biggest pot was pretty juicy:

                                Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                SB: $439.76 (219.9 bb)
                                BB: $310.43 (155.2 bb)
                                Hero (MP): $300.03 (150 bb)
                                CO: $315.80 (157.9 bb)
                                BTN: $245 (122.5 bb)

                                Preflop: Hero is MP with 4 4
                                Hero raises to $5, 3 folds, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $7

                                Flop: ($25) 4 Q 7 (2 players)
                                BB bets $18, Hero raises to $46, BB raises to $298.43 and is all-in, Hero calls $242.03 and is all-in

                                Turn: ($601.06) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                River: ($601.06) A (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                Results: $601.06 pot ($3 rake)
                                Final Board: 4 Q 7 2 A
                                BB showed K K and lost (-$300.03 net)
                                Hero showed 4 4 and won $598.06 ($298.03 net)


                                No reason to "balance" anyway against this opponent and board being so drawy --> wanted just get the money in.
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                                Old 12-07-2018, 11:31 AM   #67
                                TheEducatedGuesser
                                centurion
                                 
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                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                First NFL W14 bet is in:

                                GB-ATL total O 50 points

                                Both are offensive-oriented teams so would be pretty reasonable to expect high-scoring match.

                                -----------------------------------------------------

                                This is starting to look more like cash game blog, but I figured I can play these until I donīt win anymore or I get outplayed frequently. Playing MTTīs feels super easy after deep stack games.

                                  Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                  SB: $452.48 (226.2 bb)
                                  BB: $368.97 (184.5 bb)
                                  MP: $458.72 (229.4 bb)
                                  CO: $209.56 (104.8 bb)
                                  Hero (BTN): $223.92 (112 bb)

                                  Preflop: Hero is BTN with 4 4
                                  MP raises to $4, CO folds, Hero calls $4, SB raises to $24, BB folds, MP calls $20, Hero calls $20

                                  Flop: ($74) T 8 3 (3 players)
                                  SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

                                  Turn: ($74) 4 (3 players)
                                  SB bets $52, MP calls $52, Hero raises to $199.92 and is all-in, SB raises to $428.48 and is all-in, MP folds

                                  River: ($525.84) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                  Results: $525.84 pot ($3.00 rake)
                                  Final Board: T 8 3 4 9
                                  SB showed 5 A and lost (-$223.92 net)
                                  MP mucked and lost (-$76 net)
                                  Hero showed 4 4 and won $522.84 ($298.92 net)


                                  That is a decent turn card

                                  --------------------------------------------------

                                    Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                    SB: $269.34 (269.3 bb)
                                    BB: $124.76 (124.8 bb)
                                    MP: $107.42 (107.4 bb)
                                    Hero (CO): $104.99 (105 bb)
                                    BTN: $161.80 (161.8 bb)

                                    Preflop: Hero is CO with K A
                                    MP raises to $2.50, Hero raises to $7.50, 3 folds, MP calls $5

                                    Flop: ($16.50) 2 J 9 (2 players)
                                    MP checks, Hero bets $5.13, MP calls $5.13

                                    Turn: ($26.76) T (2 players)
                                    MP checks, Hero bets $18.92, MP raises to $94.79 and is all-in, Hero calls $73.44 and is all-in

                                    River: ($211.48) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                    Results: $211.48 pot ($2.85 rake)
                                    Final Board: 2 J 9 T 7
                                    MP showed J J and lost (-$104.99 net)
                                    Hero showed K A and won $208.63 ($103.64 net)


                                    Another decent turn card

                                    ------------------------------------------------

                                      Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
                                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                      SB: $437.18 (218.6 bb)
                                      BB: $200 (100 bb)
                                      MP: $432.03 (216 bb)
                                      CO: $215.22 (107.6 bb)
                                      Hero (BTN): $277.72 (138.9 bb)

                                      Preflop: Hero is BTN with A A
                                      MP calls $2, CO folds, Hero raises to $8, SB folds, BB raises to $27, MP folds, Hero calls $19

                                      Flop: ($57) 9 K J (2 players)
                                      BB checks, Hero bets $17.82, BB raises to $173 and is all-in, Hero calls $155.18

                                      Turn: ($403) 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                      River: ($403) T (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                                      Results: $403 pot ($3 rake)
                                      Final Board: 9 K J 7 T
                                      BB showed 9 9 and won $400 ($200 net)
                                      Hero showed A A and lost (-$200 net)


                                      Villain had reggish stats so decided this time to slowplay aces in position 100bb deep

                                      -------------------------------------------------

                                        Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
                                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                        SB: $154.28 (154.3 bb)
                                        Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
                                        MP: $100 (100 bb)
                                        CO: $118.56 (118.6 bb)
                                        BTN: $75.19 (75.2 bb)

                                        Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 8
                                        MP folds, CO raises to $3, BTN folds, SB calls $2.50, Hero calls $2

                                        Flop: ($9) 9 4 7 (3 players)
                                        SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $5, SB folds, Hero raises to $16.09, CO raises to $115.56 and is all-in, Hero calls $80.91 and is all-in

                                        Turn: ($203) J (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                        River: ($203) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                        Results: $203 pot ($2.85 rake)
                                        Final Board: 9 4 7 J 3
                                        SB mucked and lost (-$3 net)
                                        Hero showed 6 8 and lost (-$100 net)
                                        CO showed T J and won $200.15 ($100.15 net)


                                        Somehow managed to be 56% favourite after villainīs shove...
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                                        Old 12-09-2018, 05:55 AM   #68
                                        TheEducatedGuesser
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                                        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                        Probably last bets I will make for the NFL W14:

                                        HOU-IND Andrew Luck O 275,5 passing yards 1,9 @Betfair

                                        Line is around 20 yards lower than other bookies and Luck has been throwing over 280 on average.

                                        KC-BAL 1st half U 26 points 1,86 @William Hill

                                        Always risky business to bet unders against Chiefs, but Baltimoreīs game plan is to run and keep KCīs offense on the sideline. If BAL is losing on the second half, they are forced to throw more, so 1st half bet makes more sense.

                                        CLE-CAR CAR ML 1,934 @Pinnacle


                                        Carolina should be favourite even when playing in Cleveland.


                                        -------------------------------------------

                                        Quote:
                                        I figured I can play these until I donīt win anymore or I get outplayed frequently. Playing MTTīs feels super easy after deep stack games.
                                        I think I reached this point now. Had a lot of coolers and bad reads last session:

                                          IPoker, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
                                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                          Hero (SB): $304.84 (304.8 bb)
                                          BB: $136.68 (136.7 bb)
                                          MP: $102.10 (102.1 bb)
                                          CO: $204.11 (204.1 bb)
                                          BTN: $143.38 (143.4 bb)

                                          Preflop: Hero is SB with K K
                                          2 folds, BTN raises to $3, Hero raises to $12, BB folds, BTN raises to $34, Hero raises to $304.84 and is all-in, BTN calls $109.38 and is all-in

                                          Flop: ($287.76) J J 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                          Turn: ($287.76) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                          River: ($287.76) 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                          Results: $287.76 pot ($2 rake)
                                          Final Board: J J 7 2 8
                                          Hero mucked K K and won $0.00 (-$143.38 net)
                                          BTN showed A A and won $285.76 ($142.38 net)


                                          Against a maniac.

                                          --------------------------------------------------

                                            Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
                                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                            Hero (SB): $109.53 (109.5 bb)
                                            BB: $128.97 (129 bb)
                                            UTG: $162.32 (162.3 bb)
                                            MP: $35.77 (35.8 bb)
                                            CO: $144.55 (144.6 bb)
                                            BTN: $125.27 (125.3 bb)

                                            Preflop: Hero is SB with Q Q
                                            UTG raises to $2.44, MP folds, CO calls $2.44, BTN calls $2.44, Hero raises to $15, 2 folds, CO calls $12.56, BTN calls $12.56

                                            Flop: ($48.44) 4 9 A (3 players)
                                            Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

                                            Turn: ($48.44) 8 (3 players)
                                            Hero bets $34.24, CO folds, BTN calls $34.24

                                            River: ($116.92) A (2 players)
                                            Hero checks, BTN bets $56.96, Hero calls $56.96

                                            Results: $230.84 pot ($3.00 rake)
                                            Final Board: 4 9 A 8 A
                                            Hero mucked Q Q and lost (-$106.20 net)
                                            BTN showed 8 8 and won $227.84 ($121.64 net)


                                            Every draw misses on the river and villain is repping 88 or some AT,AJ that decided to check flop.

                                            ---------------------------------------------------------

                                              IPoker, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
                                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                              SB: $104.22 (104.2 bb)
                                              BB: $61.50 (61.5 bb)
                                              UTG+2: $111.50 (111.5 bb)
                                              MP1: $114.08 (114.1 bb)
                                              MP2: $100.70 (100.7 bb)
                                              MP3: $100 (100 bb)
                                              CO: $100 (100 bb)
                                              Hero (BTN): $100 (100 bb)

                                              Preflop: Hero is BTN with T T
                                              UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $3, 2 folds, CO calls $3, Hero raises to $13, SB folds, BB calls $12, MP1 folds, CO calls $10

                                              Flop: ($42.50) 5 8 5 (3 players)
                                              BB bets $5, CO calls $5, Hero raises to $22, BB folds, CO calls $17

                                              Turn: ($91.50) Q (2 players)
                                              CO checks, Hero bets $65 and is all-in, CO calls $65 and is all-in

                                              River: ($221.50) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                              Results: $221.50 pot ($2 rake)
                                              Final Board: 5 8 5 Q 6
                                              CO showed 8 8 and won $219.50 ($119.50 net)
                                              Hero mucked T T and lost (-$100 net)


                                              V has lot of smaller pocket pairs, but I doubt they are going to call my shove, so maybe just checking would be reasonable.

                                              ----------------------------------------------------------------

                                                IPoker, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
                                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                SB: $120.62 (120.6 bb)
                                                Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
                                                MP: $100 (100 bb)
                                                CO: $103.85 (103.9 bb)
                                                BTN: $217.51 (217.5 bb)

                                                Preflop: Hero is BB with Q A
                                                3 folds, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $9, SB raises to $22, Hero calls $13

                                                Flop: ($44) J T 8 (2 players)
                                                SB checks, Hero bets $17, SB raises to $98.62 and is all-in, Hero calls $61 and is all-in

                                                Turn: ($200) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                River: ($200) Q (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                                Results: $200 pot ($2 rake)
                                                Final Board: J T 8 3 Q
                                                SB showed A K and won $198 ($98 net)
                                                Hero mucked Q A and lost (-$100 net)


                                                Two overs and double gutshot, so have to call this.

                                                --------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  IPoker, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
                                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                  SB: $105.34 (105.3 bb)
                                                  BB: $110 (110 bb)
                                                  UTG+2: $116.08 (116.1 bb)
                                                  MP1: $121.49 (121.5 bb)
                                                  MP2: $100 (100 bb)
                                                  MP3: $220.13 (220.1 bb)
                                                  Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
                                                  BTN: $100 (100 bb)

                                                  Preflop: Hero is CO with 6 7
                                                  4 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN calls $2.50, SB raises to $4, BB folds, Hero calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

                                                  Flop: ($13) 4 5 K (3 players)
                                                  SB bets $3, Hero raises to $15.40, BTN calls $15.40, SB calls $12.40

                                                  Turn: ($59.20) Q (3 players)
                                                  SB checks, Hero bets $80.60 and is all-in, BTN folds, SB calls $80.60

                                                  River: ($220.40) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                                                  Results: $220.40 pot ($2.00 rake)
                                                  Final Board: 4 5 K Q Q
                                                  SB showed A A and won $218.40 ($118.40 net)
                                                  Hero mucked 6 7 and lost (-$100 net)
                                                  BTN mucked and lost (-$19.40 net)


                                                  This is likely the only hand SB is winning against after my line.

                                                  -----------------------------------------------------------------

                                                  Well, I managed to make almost 1500$ after paying 946$(!) rake without virtually any rakeback during 9599 hands. Even having 30% rakeback would make playing these games a lot more attractive. But for now I will play these for practicing purposes now and then.

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                                                  Old 12-11-2018, 06:30 PM   #69
                                                  TheEducatedGuesser
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                                                  Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                  W14 results: 4/6 right. One hell of a week in NFL, very exciting games and surprising results. Last weeks of the regular season will be dope to watch

                                                  --------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Pacific, $10.90 Buy-in (40/80 blinds, 8 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                    SB: 4,604 (57.6 bb)
                                                    BB: 4,918 (61.5 bb)
                                                    UTG+1: 3,076 (38.5 bb)
                                                    UTG+2: 9,088 (113.6 bb)
                                                    MP1: 5,164 (64.6 bb)
                                                    MP2: 2,806 (35.1 bb)
                                                    MP3: 8,318 (104 bb)
                                                    CO: 4,811 (60.1 bb)
                                                    Hero (BTN): 11,229 (140.4 bb)

                                                    Preflop: Hero is BTN with J K
                                                    4 folds, MP3 raises to 240, CO folds, Hero calls 240, 2 folds

                                                    Flop: (672) 9 Q T (2 players)
                                                    MP3 bets 528, Hero raises to 1,616, MP3 calls 1,088

                                                    Turn: (3,904) Q (2 players)
                                                    MP3 checks, Hero bets 1,232, MP3 calls 1,232

                                                    River: (6,368) J (2 players)
                                                    MP3 bets 5,222 and is all-in, Hero folds

                                                    Results: 6,368 pot
                                                    Final Board: 9 Q T Q J
                                                    MP3 mucked and won 6,368 (3,272 net)
                                                    Hero mucked J K and lost (-3,096 net)


                                                    Very interesting line, repping AKhh or JQ?? I donīt mind overfolding, have seen enough of valuedonking in these spots to bother pressing the call button.

                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------

                                                      Pacific, $30 Buy-in (60/120 blinds, 12 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                      SB: 5,124 (42.7 bb)
                                                      Hero (BB): 12,853 (107.1 bb)
                                                      UTG+1: 9,812 (81.8 bb)
                                                      UTG+2: 4,562 (38 bb)
                                                      MP1: 2,774 (23.1 bb)
                                                      MP2: 4,156 (34.6 bb)
                                                      MP3: 3,348 (27.9 bb)
                                                      CO: 13,521 (112.7 bb)
                                                      BTN: 4,356 (36.3 bb)

                                                      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q 7
                                                      UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 240, 6 folds, Hero calls 120

                                                      Flop: (648) 5 4 6 (2 players)
                                                      Hero bets 230, UTG+2 calls 230

                                                      Turn: (1,108) A (2 players)
                                                      Hero checks, UTG+2 bets 554, Hero raises to 12,371 and is all-in, UTG+2 folds

                                                      Results: 2,216 pot
                                                      Final Board: 5 4 6 A
                                                      Hero mucked Q 7 and won 2,216 (1,180 net)
                                                      UTG+2 mucked and lost (-1,036 net)


                                                      I think I like this line, would make this play with sets, straights, two pairs...

                                                      --------------------------------------------------

                                                        Pacific, $10.90 Buy-in (40/80 blinds, 8 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                        SB: 5,052 (63.2 bb)
                                                        BB: 2,774 (34.7 bb)
                                                        UTG+1: 11,326 (141.6 bb)
                                                        UTG+2: 4,599 (57.5 bb)
                                                        Hero (MP1): 8,541 (106.8 bb)
                                                        MP2: 4,532 (56.7 bb)
                                                        MP3: 4,586 (57.3 bb)
                                                        CO: 2,924 (36.6 bb)
                                                        BTN: 9,680 (121 bb)

                                                        Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A 6
                                                        2 folds, Hero raises to 200, MP2 folds, MP3 calls 200, 4 folds

                                                        Flop: (592) J 5 Q (2 players)
                                                        Hero bets 188, MP3 calls 188

                                                        Turn: (968) 9 (2 players)
                                                        Hero bets 785, MP3 folds

                                                        Results: 968 pot
                                                        Final Board: J 5 Q 9
                                                        Hero mucked A 6 and won 968 (572 net)
                                                        MP3 mucked and lost (-396 net)


                                                        Going for cheap info on the flop hoping to maybe get good turn which I eventually get. Targeting small pockets and Jx on the turn.
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                                                        Old 12-13-2018, 05:19 AM   #70
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                                                        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                        W15 early bet: LAR-PHI PHI +11 1,91 @Betfair

                                                        Nick Foles is expected to play as Phillyīs QB and he won Suber Bowl last year. Eaglesīs defense is of course concern here, but Rams havenīt been good this season against the spread.

                                                        -------------------------------------------------------

                                                        Had BE session, stuffed with loads of stupid spots:

                                                          IPoker, $9.10 Buy-in (125/250 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                          SB: 7,304 (29.2 bb)
                                                          Hero (BB): 10,119 (40.5 bb)
                                                          UTG+1: 9,241 (37 bb)
                                                          UTG+2: 10,878 (43.5 bb)
                                                          MP1: 9,070 (36.3 bb)
                                                          MP2: 7,995 (32 bb)
                                                          MP3: 8,180 (32.7 bb)
                                                          CO: 10,428 (41.7 bb)
                                                          BTN: 11,375 (45.5 bb)

                                                          Preflop: Hero is BB with Q 3
                                                          5 folds, CO raises to 500, BTN folds, SB calls 375, Hero calls 250

                                                          Flop: (1,725) 2 Q 3 (3 players)
                                                          SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

                                                          Turn: (1,725) 6 (3 players)
                                                          SB bets 862, Hero raises to 2,224, CO folds, SB calls 1,362

                                                          River: (6,173) T (2 players)
                                                          SB bets 4,555 and is all-in, Hero calls 4,555

                                                          Results: 15,283 pot
                                                          Final Board: 2 Q 3 6 T
                                                          SB showed Q T and won 15,283 (7,979 net)
                                                          Hero mucked Q 3 and lost (-7,304 net)



                                                          Kinda knew what SB had after instadonkshove on a total blank river...

                                                          ----------------------------------------------------

                                                            Pacific, $30 Buy-in (75/150 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                            SB: 10,122 (67.5 bb)
                                                            BB: 3,901 (26 bb)
                                                            UTG+1: 12,130 (80.9 bb)
                                                            Hero (UTG+2): 7,125 (47.5 bb)
                                                            MP1: 13,353 (89 bb)
                                                            MP2: 2,581 (17.2 bb)
                                                            MP3: 6,807 (45.4 bb)
                                                            CO: 4,200 (28 bb)
                                                            BTN: 3,357 (22.4 bb)

                                                            Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K A
                                                            UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to 330, MP1 calls 330, 6 folds

                                                            Flop: (1,065) 2 5 A (2 players)
                                                            Hero bets 500, MP1 raises to 1,532, Hero raises to 6,775 and is all-in, MP1 calls 5,243

                                                            Turn: (14,615) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                                            River: (14,615) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                                                            Results: 14,615 pot
                                                            Final Board: 2 5 A J 8
                                                            Hero showed K A and lost (-7,125 net)
                                                            MP1 showed 5 5 and won 14,615 (7,490 net)


                                                            On a board where they should not really have a raising range against 50% cbet from oop opener... They just have it.

                                                            --------------------------------------------------------

                                                              Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (10,000/20,000 blinds, 2,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                              Hero (SB): 540,739 (27 bb)
                                                              BB: 178,000 (8.9 bb)
                                                              UTG+1: 115,108 (5.8 bb)
                                                              UTG+2: 882,238 (44.1 bb)
                                                              MP1: 750,096 (37.5 bb)
                                                              MP2: 725,515 (36.3 bb)
                                                              MP3: 669,796 (33.5 bb)
                                                              CO: 305,532 (15.3 bb)
                                                              BTN: 317,028 (15.9 bb)

                                                              Preflop: Hero is SB with 5 5
                                                              6 folds, BTN raises to 315,028 and is all-in, 2 folds

                                                              Results: 68,000 pot
                                                              BTN mucked and won 68,000 (46,000 net)


                                                              Deep in 10r MTT. I think this really comes down to the fact if villain is reg or rec. Against regs this should be a call but against scared recs who shove even queens here surprisingly often, 55 might be a fold.

                                                              --------------------------------------------

                                                                Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (75/150 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                SB: 4,640 (30.9 bb)
                                                                BB: 9,814 (65.4 bb)
                                                                Hero (UTG+1): 11,534 (76.9 bb)
                                                                UTG+2: 10,639 (70.9 bb)
                                                                MP1: 10,885 (72.6 bb)
                                                                MP2: 9,302 (62 bb)
                                                                MP3: 9,625 (64.2 bb)
                                                                CO: 10,000 (66.7 bb)
                                                                BTN: 9,550 (63.7 bb)

                                                                Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 5 A
                                                                Hero raises to 318, UTG+2 calls 318, 7 folds

                                                                Flop: (861) 7 A 3 (2 players)
                                                                Hero checks, UTG+2 checks

                                                                Turn: (861) 4 (2 players)
                                                                Hero bets 646, UTG+2 calls 646

                                                                River: (2,153) 9 (2 players)
                                                                Hero bets 710, UTG+2 calls 710

                                                                Results: 3,573 pot
                                                                Final Board: 7 A 3 4 9
                                                                Hero showed 5 A and won 3,573 (1,899 net)
                                                                UTG+2 mucked T T and lost (-1,674 net)


                                                                I think I got the maximum here.
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                                                                Old 12-16-2018, 04:55 AM   #71
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                                                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                More W 15 bets:



                                                                Rudolph is having bad year TD-wise but Miami has bottom 10 defense and therefore there should be more opportunities.

                                                                Edwardsī snap counts have been in decline and he is sharing the backfield with Montgomery and Collins not to mention Lamar Jackson who is basically RB and QB at the same time.
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                                                                Old 12-17-2018, 03:48 PM   #72
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                                                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                W15 betting result: 3/5 right, so another winning week.

                                                                At the moment up for 10,5 units for the season, ROI is 4,23%. Not huge numbers, but I regard everything over zero as a success.

                                                                Not going to play much of poker during this remaining month except some Winter Series MTTīs 27.12-30.12.
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                                                                Old 12-22-2018, 04:41 AM   #73
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                                                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                W16 bets are in:



                                                                Redskinsī playoff hopes are still alive and Titans are not an attacking machine.

                                                                Phillyīs Foles looked good in last game and their defense has a lot of injuries --> possibility for a high-scoring game.

                                                                Rams and Goff havenīt been very good against the spread and Gurley is not in 100% shape due to injury.

                                                                I expect Seattle to implement similar strategy like Baltimore did against KC. Lots of running and eating the clock --> keep Mahomes out of the field. Seahawks have no.1 run offense at the moment when measured in yards. I rather bet the first half because it is easier to predict.
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                                                                Old 12-25-2018, 12:45 PM   #74
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                                                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                NFL betting W16 results: 3/4 right. Going to play one more poker session on 26th and wrapping up the year after that. I estimate to be up for ~1800€ for this month from poker, so bankroll is near 11k atm. Going to add some 50€ tourneys to my schedule next year and maybe try some NL400 games just for the fun of it.
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                                                                Old 12-27-2018, 05:21 AM   #75
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                                                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                                Horrible last session of the year playing some 50/109 Winter series tournaments. Month still ended up for 1600€ putting my bankroll to 10,7k. I am not resetting that BR as I stated in opening post. Keep just raising stakes if it keeps on growing. Gonna be back playing somewhere mid january.


                                                                  Party, $40 Buy-in (575/1,150 blinds, 130 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                                                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                  SB: 96,980 (84.3 bb)
                                                                  BB: 65,985 (57.4 bb)
                                                                  UTG: 139,462 (121.3 bb)
                                                                  MP: 122,465 (106.5 bb)
                                                                  Hero (CO): 87,863 (76.4 bb)
                                                                  BTN: 95,895 (83.4 bb)

                                                                  Preflop: Hero is CO with A J
                                                                  2 folds, Hero raises to 2,415, 2 folds, BB calls 1,265

                                                                  Flop: (6,185) T 8 9 (2 players)
                                                                  BB checks, Hero checks

                                                                  Turn: (6,185) 4 (2 players)
                                                                  BB bets 3,092, Hero calls 3,092

                                                                  River: (12,369) 8 (2 players)
                                                                  BB bets 6,184, Hero raises to 19,550, BB calls 13,366

                                                                  Results: 51,469 pot
                                                                  Final Board: T 8 9 4 8
                                                                  BB showed K 8 and won 51,469 (26,282 net)
                                                                  Hero showed A J and lost (-25,187 net)


                                                                  On the river tried to get V fold some 8x, maybe even J7īs.

                                                                  ----------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Poker Stars, $50 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
                                                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                    SB: 68,877 (172.2 bb)
                                                                    BB: 25,000 (62.5 bb)
                                                                    UTG+2: 11,683 (29.2 bb)
                                                                    MP1: 23,573 (58.9 bb)
                                                                    MP2: 42,072 (105.2 bb)
                                                                    MP3: 24,150 (60.4 bb)
                                                                    CO: 33,825 (84.6 bb)
                                                                    Hero (BTN): 21,000 (52.5 bb)

                                                                    Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
                                                                    5 folds, Hero raises to 848, SB folds, BB calls 448

                                                                    Flop: (2,296) 7 T 5 (2 players)
                                                                    BB checks, Hero bets 758, BB raises to 2,016, Hero calls 1,258

                                                                    Turn: (6,328) 6 (2 players)
                                                                    BB bets 2,848, Hero folds

                                                                    Results: 6,328 pot
                                                                    Final Board: 7 T 5 6
                                                                    BB mucked and won 6,328 (3,414 net)
                                                                    Hero mucked J J and lost (-2,914 net)


                                                                    This is one exploitative fold, but that 6c is maybe the worst turn card for me. Still not convinced that player with no reads is x-raising enough on the flop and continuing blasting on the turn.

                                                                    -----------------------------------------------------

                                                                      Pacific, $8 Buy-in (1,250/2,500 blinds, 325 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
                                                                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                                      SB: 76,795 (30.7 bb)
                                                                      BB: 57,250 (22.9 bb)
                                                                      UTG+2: 192,579 (77 bb)
                                                                      MP1: 43,512 (17.4 bb)
                                                                      MP2: 30,373 (12.1 bb)
                                                                      Hero (MP3): 37,575 (15 bb)
                                                                      CO: 30,000 (12 bb)
                                                                      BTN: 105,293 (42.1 bb)

                                                                      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q 8
                                                                      3 folds, Hero raises to 5,500, 3 folds, BB calls 3,000

                                                                      Flop: (14,850) Q J 7 (2 players)
                                                                      BB checks, Hero checks

                                                                      Turn: (14,850) 6 (2 players)
                                                                      BB bets 7,720, Hero raises to 31,750 and is all-in, BB folds

                                                                      Results: 30,290 pot
                                                                      Final Board: Q J 7 6
                                                                      BB mucked and lost (-13,545 net)
                                                                      Hero mucked Q 8 and won 30,290 (16,745 net)


                                                                      Mixing with TPWK on the flop, on that safe turn wanted to just deny BBīs equity.
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