W10 NFL betting results: 3/5 right

Unibet is having some kind live odds boost promotion for ATP finals, they add 20% more to the odds, eg. 2.00 becomes 2.20. I don´t know anything about tennis, but maybe that 20% pushes the bet being +EV?

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Played a hand against some Stars Team Pro, I was way more confident doing this river c-r against somebody who I knew can fold Kx. That board hits typical limp-call range very well and I thought it is very unlikely some good player would slowplay monster hand against some random guy 100bb+ deep.

Two bets for NFL W11:



Got also free 100€ MTT ticket from sort of a lottery thing similar to Pokerstar´s chests. I don´t usually play on sundays in the middle of NFL season, but next sunday will be good time to use this ticket since I don´t have work next monday.

NFL W11:

JAX-PIT Keelan Cole U 3,5 receptions 1,66 @Betfair

Betfair is still offering Cole bets. His snap counts in two previous games are 23% and 29% of offensive snaps. Jacksonville´s offense has been fairly good during this time, and there are no injuries in the remaining WR core, indicating that Cole´s role is remaining small. Last week Cole had zero receptions, before that he had 2 recs/game in two previous matches.

NFL W11:

BAL-CIN TE Mark Andrews O 19,5 receiving yards 2,00 @Betfair

Cincinnati has the worst defense in NFL and Andrews´s role has been getting bigger. BAL rookie QB Jackson is expected to get the start in this game and I think they will use TE´s more in the passing game and avoid long WR throws.

Also waiting for more bookies to offer Lamar Jackson bets for this same game. Jackson over 30 rush yards would be nice to find somewhere. Found only o38,5 for 2,00 @Betfair, but I will probably bet that anyway if there´s no better offers.

Crazy hand. Decided to donk because dynamic board and fairly good for my range. That lead set up pretty nice chain reaction!

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This felt like I made a weak play not betting the river. I have pretty poor blockers, would be more inclined to bluff the river with AJcc.

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3x mindonk --> raise river with any two.

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Final two tables. Would be more than happy to call a shove, but this small 3bet with 20 bb´s is too nutty for my taste.

W11 results: 3/6 right

Ended up not betting Lamar Jackson rushing over 38,5 yards, he ran over 100... Andrews got 19 yards when my bet was over 19,5 yards...

But had big bet on Keelan Cole under 3,5 receptions, ended up having 0 recs and 23% off snap count. I hope Betfair keeps offering that one in future too.

Season is now little over 10 units up and almost every season bet are still alive.

Managed to get to final two tables with that free 100€ Supernova ticket, just couldn´t haul it in to the FT.

W12: Thanksgiving game bets:



Detroit´s run defense is pretty bad and CHI is starting secondary QB in this game. I think they are going to be fairly run heavy in this matchup.

Same thing with the DAL-WAS, Dallas is a run-first team and Washington has serious problems with their offense. Both teams averaging under 40 total points/game this season.

W12 bets:

DEN-PIT PIT -3 1,943 @Pinnacle

I think Steelers are going to bounce back after last weeks´s performance.

IND-MIA IND TE Mo Allie-Cox scores a TD 7,5 @Betstars

Leagues top 3 offensive line vs bottom 3 defensive line. I see Colts getting many redzone opportunities in this game where they have scored TD 68% of the time. Allie-Cox´s snaps have been increasing, hovering around 30-50%. This guy is very big redzone threat due to this basketball backround:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3WKQBiPGbk

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Played few min of cash after my graveyard shift, there is still value in these games:

One more bet NFL W12

SEA-CAR O 46,5 2,00 @Pinnacle

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Been continuing my perverse journey in cash game world. Been on the better side of variance, so no reason to complain.



On the turn it is pretty obvious what villain has; x:ing the flop and suddenly raising my pot sized turn bet. On the river I was making either big 3/4 bet or try to induce raise with a blocker bet repping KQ.

W12 results: 2/6 right and one bet (Mo Allie-Cox) was push. Colts are looking really good right now, too bad Houston won last night.

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I haven´t checked this hand with PIO yet, but this felt like a good spot to bluff. Going to x-call most of my flushdraws with two overs, so I think I can raise this combo against 25% cbet.

One early W13 NFL bet:
JAX-IND IND -4 1,943 @Pinnacle

Fournette is not going to play in this game and Bortles is crumbling. I have 0 confidence in Jacksonville. Indy is playing well and their motivation is 100%.

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Anatomy of small stakes MTT´s: Part two

It is highly profitable to cbet 100% with small sizings such as 20-30% of the pot. People are donking their pairs so much that their flop x range is generally super weak --> usually c-bet and/or double barreling gives us the pot.



Full pot donk is TP, sometimes even top two. Many donk full pot even in A-high flops when holding A.



Mindonk is middle/bottom pair. It is better to try to get the money in on the flop, because so many turns/rivers make them reluctant to call with their weak pairs.

Couple of cash game hands:



Tried to isolate weaker player on small blind. On the turn MP´s range probably consists mainly of draws and decided to put max pressure blocking TJ and TT.

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After nodelocking BTN doing this flop raise more frequently (~80% of the time) with pocket pairs 33-99, my raise with Kd doesn´t seem super awful. With this kind of runout I think it is mandatory to bet turn and shove river.

Smaller bet for tonights´s game: DAL-NO Mark Ingram U 56,5 rushing yards.

1,8 @ Betfair, just taking this because others bookies´ line is 46 for Ingram.

Two more bets for W13 NFL:

ATL-BAL Lamar Jackson O 177,5 passing yards 1,90 @Betfair

PIT-LAC PIT -3 2,14 @Unibet (Oddsboost)

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Pokerwise, last month was nice success with profit of 1502€. Bankroll now at 9090€

W13: 2/5 right. Colts lost 0-6, what kind of result is that?

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Cash game hands:




UTG limper was a complete oddball, 56/0/0, did some postflop checkbacking with nuts etc... Villain has all better 9x and JJ also in his range, but maybe this should be just get it in and hope he was doing something stupid...

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More weird ****, this guy liked to 3bet preflop, having 26,7 as 3bet after 66 hands. Should be cbetting the flop small with my 4betrange being so strong. Not cbetting creates these weird spots, like on the river. TJs seems very unlikely, and what 6´s does villain have on the river? Only hand taking this line would be 78s in my opinion.

Had one score in MTT world:



Played also some cash alongside tourneys, biggest pot was pretty juicy:



No reason to "balance" anyway against this opponent and board being so drawy --> wanted just get the money in.

First NFL W14 bet is in:

GB-ATL total O 50 points

Both are offensive-oriented teams so would be pretty reasonable to expect high-scoring match.

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This is starting to look more like cash game blog, but I figured I can play these until I don´t win anymore or I get outplayed frequently. Playing MTT´s feels super easy after deep stack games.



That is a decent turn card

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Another decent turn card

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Villain had reggish stats so decided this time to slowplay aces in position 100bb deep

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Somehow managed to be 56% favourite after villain´s shove...

Probably last bets I will make for the NFL W14:

HOU-IND Andrew Luck O 275,5 passing yards 1,9 @Betfair

Line is around 20 yards lower than other bookies and Luck has been throwing over 280 on average.

KC-BAL 1st half U 26 points 1,86 @William Hill

Always risky business to bet unders against Chiefs, but Baltimore´s game plan is to run and keep KC´s offense on the sideline. If BAL is losing on the second half, they are forced to throw more, so 1st half bet makes more sense.

CLE-CAR CAR ML 1,934 @Pinnacle


Carolina should be favourite even when playing in Cleveland.


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I think I reached this point now. Had a lot of coolers and bad reads last session:



Against a maniac.

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Every draw misses on the river and villain is repping 88 or some AT,AJ that decided to check flop.

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V has lot of smaller pocket pairs, but I doubt they are going to call my shove, so maybe just checking would be reasonable.

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Two overs and double gutshot, so have to call this.

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This is likely the only hand SB is winning against after my line.

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Well, I managed to make almost 1500$ after paying 946$(!) rake without virtually any rakeback during 9599 hands. Even having 30% rakeback would make playing these games a lot more attractive. But for now I will play these for practicing purposes now and then.

W14 results: 4/6 right. One hell of a week in NFL, very exciting games and surprising results. Last weeks of the regular season will be dope to watch

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Very interesting line, repping AKhh or JQ?? I don´t mind overfolding, have seen enough of valuedonking in these spots to bother pressing the call button.

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I think I like this line, would make this play with sets, straights, two pairs...

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Going for cheap info on the flop hoping to maybe get good turn which I eventually get. Targeting small pockets and Jx on the turn.

W15 early bet: LAR-PHI PHI +11 1,91 @Betfair

Nick Foles is expected to play as Philly´s QB and he won Suber Bowl last year. Eagles´s defense is of course concern here, but Rams haven´t been good this season against the spread.

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Had BE session, stuffed with loads of stupid spots:




Kinda knew what SB had after instadonkshove on a total blank river...

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On a board where they should not really have a raising range against 50% cbet from oop opener... They just have it.

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Deep in 10r MTT. I think this really comes down to the fact if villain is reg or rec. Against regs this should be a call but against scared recs who shove even queens here surprisingly often, 55 might be a fold.

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I think I got the maximum here.

More W 15 bets:



Rudolph is having bad year TD-wise but Miami has bottom 10 defense and therefore there should be more opportunities.

Edwards´ snap counts have been in decline and he is sharing the backfield with Montgomery and Collins not to mention Lamar Jackson who is basically RB and QB at the same time.

W15 betting result: 3/5 right, so another winning week.

At the moment up for 10,5 units for the season, ROI is 4,23%. Not huge numbers, but I regard everything over zero as a success.

Not going to play much of poker during this remaining month except some Winter Series MTT´s 27.12-30.12.

W16 bets are in:



Redskins´ playoff hopes are still alive and Titans are not an attacking machine.

Philly´s Foles looked good in last game and their defense has a lot of injuries --> possibility for a high-scoring game.

Rams and Goff haven´t been very good against the spread and Gurley is not in 100% shape due to injury.

I expect Seattle to implement similar strategy like Baltimore did against KC. Lots of running and eating the clock --> keep Mahomes out of the field. Seahawks have no.1 run offense at the moment when measured in yards. I rather bet the first half because it is easier to predict.

NFL betting W16 results: 3/4 right. Going to play one more poker session on 26th and wrapping up the year after that. I estimate to be up for ~1800€ for this month from poker, so bankroll is near 11k atm. Going to add some 50€ tourneys to my schedule next year and maybe try some NL400 games just for the fun of it.

Horrible last session of the year playing some 50/109 Winter series tournaments. Month still ended up for 1600€ putting my bankroll to 10,7k. I am not resetting that BR as I stated in opening post. Keep just raising stakes if it keeps on growing. Gonna be back playing somewhere mid january.




On the river tried to get V fold some 8x, maybe even J7´s.

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This is one exploitative fold, but that 6c is maybe the worst turn card for me. Still not convinced that player with no reads is x-raising enough on the flop and continuing blasting on the turn.

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Mixing with TPWK on the flop, on that safe turn wanted to just deny BB´s equity.