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Poker Goals & Challenges Post your threads logging your travels up the poker ladder as you achieve your poker goals and dreams. "Challenges" does NOT mean prop bets, wagers, etc.

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Old 10-12-2018, 03:41 PM   #26
TheEducatedGuesser
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Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrimIsCool View Post
As the short stack, and quite a bit behind 1st & 2nd, there isn't much of an ICM consideration at play. Do what you can to get the money in whilst ahead.
Yep, I thought that this could be almost pure Chip EV situation due to stack distribution.

-------------------------------

Havenīt yet made any additional bets for NFL W6, but I am considering these:

NE -3,5
PIT +1 and over 51,5
SEA -2,5
ATL -3

--------------------------------

Had deep run in Big 11$ the other night but busted in this hand F2T:

    Poker Stars, $9.80 Buy-in (12,500/25,000 blinds, 3,125 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: 1,196,260 (47.9 bb)
    BB: 1,328,802 (53.2 bb)
    UTG+1: 290,616 (11.6 bb)
    UTG+2: 592,500 (23.7 bb)
    MP1: 1,119,603 (44.8 bb)
    MP2: 1,351,088 (54 bb)
    MP3: 980,736 (39.2 bb)
    CO: 566,690 (22.7 bb)
    Hero (BTN): 700,526 (28 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 8
    2 folds, MP1 raises to 55,000, MP2 folds, MP3 calls 55,000, CO folds, Hero calls 55,000, 2 folds

    Flop: (230,625) 8 9 Q (3 players)
    MP1 checks, MP3 bets 159,999, Hero raises to 341,705, MP1 raises to 1,061,478 and is all-in, MP3 folds, Hero calls 300,696 and is all-in

    Turn: (1,675,426) T (2 players, 2 are all-in)
    River: (1,675,426) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

    Results: 1,675,426 pot
    Final Board: 8 9 Q T 3
    MP1 showed A 4 and won 1,675,426 (974,900 net)
    MP3 mucked and lost (-218,124 net)
    Hero showed 8 8 and lost (-700,526 net)


    Good check from the original raiser, rest of it pretty standard imo.

    ------------------------------------------

    This was maybe the most interesting/exciting hand from that tourney:

      Poker Stars, $9.80 Buy-in (2,500/5,000 blinds, 625 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: 106,278 (21.3 bb)
      Hero (BB): 191,653 (38.3 bb)
      UTG+1: 346,825 (69.4 bb)
      UTG+2: 107,968 (21.6 bb)
      MP1: 285,501 (57.1 bb)
      MP2: 232,679 (46.5 bb)
      MP3: 46,800 (9.4 bb)
      CO: 185,995 (37.2 bb)
      BTN: 262,680 (52.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J T
      2 folds, MP1 raises to 10,000, MP2 calls 10,000, 2 folds, BTN calls 10,000, SB folds, Hero raises to 45,000, MP1 folds, MP2 calls 35,000, BTN folds

      Flop: (118,125) 2 2 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets 40,000, MP2 calls 40,000

      Turn: (198,125) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets 106,028 and is all-in, MP2 folds

      Results: 198,125 pot
      Final Board: 2 2 8 8
      Hero mucked J T and won 198,125 (112,500 net)
      MP2 mucked and lost (-85,625 net)


      So much money in the pot that I couldnīt resist to squeeze. V actually showed his/her hand when mucking, AKdd... I guess being aggressive does pay dividend.
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      Old 10-14-2018, 04:08 AM   #27
      TheEducatedGuesser
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      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

      Lost NYG-PHI U 45, final score was 47. When Eli threw interception after just 45 seconds, I thought "here we go..."

      Week 6 pics:



      Did not bet the CIN-PIT total, since possibility of rain is over 50%. Too much uncertainty.

      Oakland-Seattle will be played in London, so there is no home field advantage.

      ------------------------------------------

        Pacific, $8 Buy-in (3,500/7,000 blinds, 875 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

        SB: 183,030 (26.1 bb)
        Hero (BB): 167,857 (24 bb)
        MP1: 281,689 (40.2 bb)
        MP2: 272,729 (39 bb)
        MP3: 75,055 (10.7 bb)
        CO: 336,777 (48.1 bb)
        BTN: 35,009 (5 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 Q
        3 folds, CO raises to 14,000, 2 folds, Hero calls 7,000

        Flop: (37,625) 9 8 5 (2 players)
        Hero bets 12,345, CO calls 12,345

        Turn: (62,315) 3 (2 players)
        Hero bets 31,222, CO calls 31,222

        River: (124,759) 5 (2 players)
        Hero bets 109,415 and is all-in, CO folds

        Results: 124,759 pot
        Final Board: 9 8 5 3 5
        Hero mucked 6 Q and won 124,759 (66,317 net)
        CO mucked and lost (-58,442 net)


        Villain in this hand has been very active, I thought V is going to call turn with lots of A-highs thus making triple barreling profitable play. Q is pretty nice side card to do this with, not blocking TJ,T7 and heart draws.
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        Old 10-16-2018, 05:14 AM   #28
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        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

        Got 2/6 bets right on Week 6. SFīs Beathard looked like Super Bowl MVP, NE was lost by 0,5 points and Jacksonvilleīs supposedly leaguesī best defense was pile of turd.

        -----------------------------------------

          Pacific, $30 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

          SB: 6,645 (22.2 bb)
          BB: 5,429 (18.1 bb)
          UTG+2: 5,597 (18.7 bb)
          MP1: 9,026 (30.1 bb)
          MP2: 4,175 (13.9 bb)
          MP3: 12,478 (41.6 bb)
          Hero (CO): 14,233 (47.4 bb)
          BTN: 11,211 (37.4 bb)

          Preflop: Hero is CO with K 8
          4 folds, Hero raises to 621, BTN calls 621, SB folds, BB calls 321

          Flop: (2,333) 8 6 3 (3 players)
          BB checks, Hero bets 733, BTN calls 733, BB calls 733

          Turn: (4,532) T (3 players)
          BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 1,150, BB calls 1,150, Hero raises to 3,800, BTN calls 2,650, BB folds

          River: (13,282) T (2 players)
          Hero checks, BTN bets 6,017 and is all-in, Hero folds

          Results: 13,282 pot
          Final Board: 8 6 3 T T
          Hero mucked K 8 and lost (-5,194 net)
          BTN mucked and won 13,282 (8,088 net)


          I studied this hand after session and canīt get more than around 12% equity on the river. Villainīs call on the turn looks ultranutty and I block worse flushes with my 8h.

          -------------------------------------------------

            Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (600/1,200 blinds, 100 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

            SB: 29,639 (24.7 bb)
            Hero (BB): 57,000 (47.5 bb)
            UTG+1: 75,575 (63 bb)
            UTG+2: 48,700 (40.6 bb)
            MP1: 17,300 (14.4 bb)
            MP2: 17,400 (14.5 bb)
            MP3: 38,250 (31.9 bb)
            CO: 72,062 (60.1 bb)
            BTN: 1,828 (1.5 bb)

            Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 8
            4 folds, MP3 raises to 2,400, 3 folds, Hero calls 1,200

            Flop: (6,300) J J 5 (2 players)
            Hero checks, MP3 bets 1,953, Hero raises to 4,331, MP3 calls 2,378

            Turn: (14,962) T (2 players)
            Hero bets 8,977, MP3 calls 8,977

            River: (32,916) 4 (2 players)
            Hero checks, MP3 bets 3,000, Hero folds

            Results: 32,916 pot
            Final Board: J J 5 T 4
            Hero mucked 9 8 and lost (-15,808 net)
            MP3 mucked and won 32,916 (17,108 net)


            This flop x-r is too much with all the 89o combos. Should be limiting these to 89s with BDFD.
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            Old 10-19-2018, 06:32 PM   #29
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            Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

            Some W7 bets:



            Eli, please put 20+ points on the board, ok?

            --------------------

            Meanwhile in poker side of things, having really bad end game runs at the moment. Got one to the end though:




              Pacific, $20 Buy-in (40/80 blinds, 8 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

              SB: 4,659 (58.2 bb)
              Hero (BB): 4,610 (57.6 bb)
              UTG+2: 9,656 (120.7 bb)
              MP1: 5,916 (74 bb)
              MP2: 7,197 (90 bb)
              MP3: 2,300 (28.8 bb)
              CO: 4,257 (53.2 bb)
              BTN: 8,880 (111 bb)

              Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 A
              UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to 175, 5 folds, Hero calls 95

              Flop: (454) 8 J J (2 players)
              Hero checks, MP1 bets 151, Hero calls 151

              Turn: (756) 8 (2 players)
              Hero checks, MP1 checks

              River: (756) A (2 players)
              Hero checks, MP1 bets 378, Hero raises to 1,156, MP1 calls 778

              Results: 3,068 pot
              Final Board: 8 J J 8 A
              Hero showed 8 A and won 3,068 (1,578 net)
              MP1 showed 9 8 and lost (-1,490 net)


              Donīt know how else I could play this hand. Maybe betting the river myself would be better, because in general people are not valuebetting so thinly?
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              Old 10-21-2018, 04:33 AM   #30
              TheEducatedGuesser
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              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

              One more bet, W7:

              CHI-NE O 48,5 1,952 @Pinnacle

              -----------------------------------------
                Poker Stars, $6.69 Buy-in (30/60 blinds, 8 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                SB: 3,447 (57.5 bb)
                Hero (BB): 6,384 (106.4 bb)
                UTG+1: 4,849 (80.8 bb)
                UTG+2: 6,168 (102.8 bb)
                MP1: 3,781 (63 bb)
                MP2: 6,630 (110.5 bb)
                MP3: 4,352 (72.5 bb)
                CO: 4,528 (75.5 bb)
                BTN: 5,285 (88.1 bb)

                Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 J
                5 folds, CO raises to 150, 2 folds, Hero calls 90

                Flop: (402) 5 T 3 (2 players)
                Hero checks, CO bets 180, Hero raises to 533, CO calls 353

                Turn: (1,468) 4 (2 players)
                Hero bets 741, CO calls 741

                River: (2,950) 9 (2 players)
                Hero bets 4,952 and is all-in, CO calls 3,096 and is all-in

                Results: 9,142 pot
                Final Board: 5 T 3 4 9
                Hero showed 6 J and lost (-4,528 net)
                CO showed A A and won 9,142 (4,614 net)


                PIO doesnīt like my x-raise with this hand, not even by removing some A- and K-highs from his calling range on the flop. I have hands like 74s that I do this with so J6s is going to bloat my bluff range out of proportion. Better to keep raising hands with initial nut potential!

                -----------------------------------------------

                  IPoker, $18.20 Buy-in (600/1,200 blinds, 120 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                  Hero (SB): 15,682 (13.1 bb)
                  BB: 20,614 (17.2 bb)
                  CO: 13,921 (11.6 bb)
                  BTN: 52,685 (43.9 bb)

                  Preflop: Hero is SB with A 7
                  CO folds, BTN raises to 52,565 and is all-in, Hero calls 14,962 and is all-in, BB folds

                  Flop: (32,804) 8 Q K (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                  Turn: (32,804) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                  River: (32,804) K (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                  Results: 32,804 pot
                  Final Board: 8 Q K 9 K
                  Hero mucked A 7 and lost (-15,682 net)
                  BTN showed K 6 and won 32,804 (17,122 net)


                  This was 2 from the money (9/7) and villain was running the table over. I took a calculated risk here since I figured V is shoving near 70% of hands here and versus that I get 56% with my A7. If V is not shoving his strongest hands TT+, AQ+, I will get 58% equity. ICM-wise this is a bad call.
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                  Old 10-23-2018, 10:21 AM   #31
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                  Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                  Not very good week in NFL betting, only 3/8 right. I think I was temporarily mentally unstable to pic also JAX -3,5 within the last hours before gametime. Donīt really like that team this season with these prices bookmakers are giving them. Too weak attack leads to a situation where their defenders are being exhausted, playing too much.

                  Also lost my game in my fantasy league by 0,2(!) points, leading to a 4-3 situation.

                  ------------------------

                  Stock are going down, I havenīt made any purchases. I have been eyeing some banking firms, and might push the "buy" button next week. Currently my cash/stock position is around 65/35, so really eager to see stock market coming to lower prices.
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                  Old 10-25-2018, 04:42 AM   #32
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                  Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                  Marked a lot of hands from yesterdayīs session, here are few:

                  #1

                    IPoker, $9.50 Buy-in (2,500/5,000 blinds, 500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                    SB: 148,262 (29.7 bb)
                    BB: 171,001 (34.2 bb)
                    UTG: 136,542 (27.3 bb)
                    MP: 46,329 (9.3 bb)
                    CO: 54,165 (10.8 bb)
                    Hero (BTN): 114,815 (23 bb)

                    Preflop: Hero is BTN with 6 6
                    UTG raises to 10,000, 2 folds, Hero raises to 114,315 and is all-in, SB raises to 147,762 and is all-in, 2 folds

                    Flop: (246,630) K 2 4 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                    Turn: (246,630) T (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                    River: (246,630) J (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                    Results: 246,630 pot
                    Final Board: K 2 4 T J
                    SB showed K K and won 246,630 (131,815 net)
                    Hero mucked 6 6 and lost (-114,815 net)


                    Final 2 tables. This is too loose with normal ranges. I got this as my 3! shove range:



                    ----------------------------
                    #2

                      Pacific, $8 Buy-in (1,250/2,500 blinds, 325 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                      SB: 135,781 (54.3 bb)
                      BB: 173,306 (69.3 bb)
                      UTG+2: 51,200 (20.5 bb)
                      MP1: 35,700 (14.3 bb)
                      Hero (MP2): 77,269 (30.9 bb)
                      MP3: 60,435 (24.2 bb)
                      CO: 86,608 (34.6 bb)
                      BTN: 239,178 (95.7 bb)

                      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J J
                      2 folds, Hero raises to 5,067, MP3 folds, CO raises to 13,309, 3 folds, Hero raises to 76,944 and is all-in, CO calls 63,635

                      Flop: (160,238) J 5 Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                      Turn: (160,238) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                      River: (160,238) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                      Results: 160,238 pot
                      Final Board: J 5 Q 2 6
                      Hero showed J J and won 160,238 (82,969 net)
                      CO showed K K and lost (-77,269 net)


                      Always feels ugly to 4bshove vs nits, but even if he doesnīt have any bluff 3bets, this is a winning shove.

                      ---------------------------------------
                      #3

                        Pacific, $10.90 Buy-in (800/1,600 blinds, 200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                        SB: 51,106 (31.9 bb)
                        Hero (BB): 35,394 (22.1 bb)
                        MP: 89,556 (56 bb)
                        CO: 38,236 (23.9 bb)
                        BTN: 53,988 (33.7 bb)

                        Preflop: Hero is BB with 4 6
                        3 folds, SB raises to 3,700, Hero calls 2,100

                        Flop: (8,400) 3 3 4 (2 players)
                        SB bets 4,200, Hero calls 4,200

                        Turn: (16,800) 5 (2 players)
                        SB bets 8,400, Hero calls 8,400

                        River: (33,600) J (2 players)
                        SB bets 34,606 and is all-in, Hero folds

                        Results: 33,600 pot
                        Final Board: 3 3 4 5 J
                        SB mucked and won 33,600 (17,100 net)
                        Hero mucked 4 6 and lost (-16,500 net)


                        I fold 0% against sb practical minraises, therefore I have all 3x, 67 etc nutcombos in my range. I think I can fold my weakest pairs.

                        ------------------------------
                        #4

                          IPoker, $9.10 Buy-in (250/500 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                          Hero (SB): 5,802 (11.6 bb)
                          BB: 15,812 (31.6 bb)
                          MP: 19,426 (38.9 bb)
                          CO: 11,735 (23.5 bb)
                          BTN: 5,602 (11.2 bb)

                          Preflop: Hero is SB with J 7
                          3 folds, Hero raises to 5,752 and is all-in, BB calls 5,252

                          Flop: (11,754) A J 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                          Turn: (11,754) 3 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                          River: (11,754) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                          Results: 11,754 pot
                          Final Board: A J 9 3 9
                          Hero mucked J 7 and won 11,754 (5,952 net)
                          BB showed 8 T and lost (-5,802 net)


                          Wow, both hands are literally on the very edge of ranges here. Against nash shove he can call with T8s.

                          --------------------
                          #5

                            Pacific, $8 Buy-in (800/1,600 blinds, 200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                            SB: 75,050 (46.9 bb)
                            BB: 24,950 (15.6 bb)
                            MP1: 29,795 (18.6 bb)
                            MP2: 50,330 (31.5 bb)
                            MP3: 30,000 (18.8 bb)
                            Hero (CO): 87,863 (54.9 bb)
                            BTN: 18,674 (11.7 bb)

                            Preflop: Hero is CO with T A
                            3 folds, Hero raises to 3,244, 2 folds, BB raises to 24,750 and is all-in, Hero folds

                            Results: 8,688 pot
                            BB mucked and won 8,688 (5,244 net)


                            This was on the bubble, BB should be shoving very narrow range, so made very tight fold here.

                            --------------------------
                            #6

                              IPoker, $9.50 Buy-in (2,500/5,000 blinds, 500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                              Hero (SB): 147,415 (29.5 bb)
                              BB: 113,662 (22.7 bb)
                              UTG: 171,501 (34.3 bb)
                              MP: 137,042 (27.4 bb)
                              CO: 46,829 (9.4 bb)
                              BTN: 54,665 (10.9 bb)

                              Preflop: Hero is SB with 9 6
                              4 folds, Hero raises to 12,500, BB calls 7,500

                              Flop: (28,000) 3 4 Q (2 players)
                              Hero checks, BB checks

                              Turn: (28,000) 2 (2 players)
                              Hero bets 19,600, BB calls 19,600

                              River: (67,200) J (2 players)
                              Hero checks, BB checks

                              Results: 67,200 pot
                              Final Board: 3 4 Q 2 J
                              Hero mucked 9 6 and lost (-32,600 net)
                              BB showed 6 A and won 67,200 (34,600 net)


                              Against a nit. I should be pulling the trigger on the river with that sweet 6 I have...
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                              Old 10-25-2018, 03:33 PM   #33
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                              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                              Made a bet for the game tonight:

                              Deshaun Watson over 260,5 passing yards, 2,00 @Betfair

                              Watson seems to be getting better when the season progresses. I just hope Miami doesnīt fall too much behind so Houston has to keep throwing.
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                              Old 10-25-2018, 07:00 PM   #34
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                              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                              I also have a prop bet on Watson tonight. I only hope that he doesn't take a big hit and get knocked out of the game with that injury he has. Watson has been sacked more than anyone else in the league, and Bill O'Brien is fine with letting him get murdered if it means he can get another win and hang on to his job a little longer. I'm really tempted to play the over on the sacks prop tonight with Watt and Clowney in the mix combined with Watson routinely getting murdered behind that sieve of a line that Houston has. In fact, I just talked myself into it.
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                              Old 10-26-2018, 04:49 AM   #35
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                              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                              Quote:
                              Originally Posted by The Hashman View Post
                              I also have a prop bet on Watson tonight. I only hope that he doesn't take a big hit and get knocked out of the game with that injury he has. Watson has been sacked more than anyone else in the league, and Bill O'Brien is fine with letting him get murdered if it means he can get another win and hang on to his job a little longer. I'm really tempted to play the over on the sacks prop tonight with Watt and Clowney in the mix combined with Watson routinely getting murdered behind that sieve of a line that Houston has. In fact, I just talked myself into it.
                              Wow, Watson wasnīt sacked even once in that game. He was leading that stat before last nightīs game. Threw 5 TDīs with only 239 yards, so I can add another loss to my betting stats...

                              Anyway, two more W7 bets:

                              LAR-GB O 56,5 1,97 @Pinnacle
                              OAK-IND IND -3 1,917 @Pinnacle

                              Not sure if adding anymore, feeling kinda unconfident right now when it comes to picking right ones...

                              Last edited by TheEducatedGuesser; 10-26-2018 at 04:50 AM. Reason: fixing my language
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                              Old 10-26-2018, 09:30 AM   #36
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                              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                              Quote:
                              Originally Posted by TheEducatedGuesser View Post
                              OAK-IND IND -3 1,917 @Pinnacle
                              Would be surprised if that messed up offence gets close to IND. Reckon Luck puts up 2-3 TDs early then the game shuts down.
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                              Old 10-27-2018, 05:45 AM   #37
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                              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                              Quote:
                              Originally Posted by GrimIsCool View Post
                              Would be surprised if that messed up offence gets close to IND. Reckon Luck puts up 2-3 TDs early then the game shuts down.
                              Yep, Oakland looks right now like a rotting corpse with those few alive pieces getting picked to another teams.

                              Made one side player bet to that same game:

                              Eric Ebron under 50,5 receiving yards, 1,87 @Unibet

                              This same bet is 41,5 1,862 at Pinnacle. Fellow tight end Jack Doyle is playing in this game and should be taking away some targets from Ebron.
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                              Old 10-28-2018, 12:24 PM   #38
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                              Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                              Had last poker session of the month, not really focused and decided to stop early. Bankroll kept growing this month, sits now at 7588€.

                              Final W8 bets:

                              KC-DEN KC -8,5
                              PIT-CLE O 48

                              -------------------------------

                              Anatomy of small stakes MTTīs: Part one

                              If villainsī line is mindonk-mindonk-mindonk, raise the river w/ anytwo. 98% of the time just some fourth pair clicking buttons.

                                Pacific, $8 Buy-in (3,000/6,000 blinds, 750 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                SB: 93,970 (15.7 bb)
                                BB: 117,216 (19.5 bb)
                                MP1: 157,005 (26.2 bb)
                                MP2: 177,616 (29.6 bb)
                                MP3: 157,299 (26.2 bb)
                                CO: 208,825 (34.8 bb)
                                Hero (BTN): 156,159 (26 bb)

                                Preflop: Hero is BTN with T A
                                MP1 calls 6,000, 2 folds, CO calls 6,000, Hero raises to 30,000, 2 folds, MP1 calls 24,000, CO folds

                                Flop: (80,250) Q 8 3 (2 players)
                                MP1 bets 6,000, Hero calls 6,000

                                Turn: (92,250) 7 (2 players)
                                MP1 bets 6,000, Hero calls 6,000

                                River: (104,250) K (2 players)
                                MP1 bets 6,000, Hero raises to 113,409 and is all-in, MP1 folds

                                Results: 116,250 pot
                                Final Board: Q 8 3 7 K
                                MP1 mucked and lost (-48,750 net)
                                Hero mucked T A and won 116,250 (67,500 net)
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                                Old 10-30-2018, 04:25 AM   #39
                                TheEducatedGuesser
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                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                W8 results: 4/7, always good to have a winning week.

                                Regular season in NFL is now halfway through, my result at the moment is -3,5 units for the season. My biggest season bet is Baltimore to playoffs @2,5. Also smaller season bets to Saquon Barkley to be offensive rookie of the year @3,5, Ezekiel Elliott most reg. season rushing yards @5. These bets are pretty alive still.

                                -----------------------------------

                                Gonna spend few hours in the poker lab, cooking maybe some new stuff, going through Nash shove spots etc.

                                -----------------------------------

                                Bought one semi-big european bankīs stocks for little over 2k€, letsīs see if it bounces back maybe 10% in next couple of months and sell it. If not, going to keep it for a while then.
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                                Old 10-31-2018, 12:11 PM   #40
                                TheEducatedGuesser
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                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                Had somewhat eye-opening hand review:

                                  Pacific, $10.90 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                  SB: 8,740 (43.7 bb)
                                  Hero (BB): 5,712 (28.6 bb)
                                  MP: 8,069 (40.3 bb)
                                  CO: 8,864 (44.3 bb)
                                  BTN: 3,708 (18.5 bb)

                                  Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 T
                                  MP folds, CO raises to 400, 2 folds, Hero calls 200

                                  Flop: (1,025) J 7 J (2 players)
                                  Hero checks, CO bets 360, Hero calls 360

                                  Turn: (1,745) 7 (2 players)
                                  Hero checks, CO bets 650, Hero folds

                                  Results: 1,745 pot
                                  Final Board: J 7 J 7
                                  Hero mucked 8 T and lost (-785 net)
                                  CO mucked and won 1,745 (960 net)


                                  I knew I should be able to donk that specific turn with my range ( I defend every suited hand vs minraise from CO), but the total frequency surprised:



                                  100% donkbet with sizing of 50% of the pot.

                                  I studied both ranges on the turn:

                                  My range



                                  COīs range



                                  (Preflop ranges: CO opening ~30%, me defending 55%, shoving/ raising every pocket pair preflop except slowplaying AA 30% of the time)

                                  I have so much more 7x hands that this turn seems to be a mandatory lead. On the flop we both have pretty similar amount of trips and after COīs 35% cbet he still has majority of his preflop range with him. I have preflop - 50% so my range is much more condensed on the turn---> put that equity advantage to work and lead the turn!

                                  Last edited by TheEducatedGuesser; 10-31-2018 at 12:15 PM. Reason: fixed ipīs range
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                                  Old 11-03-2018, 10:18 AM   #41
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                                  Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                  W9 first bets:



                                  Rams and Gurley are facing number 1 def when measuring rush yards/game. I suspect them to use Gurley more in passing plays. This same bet is 90,5 for 1,684 @Pinnacle.

                                  ----------------------------------------

                                    IPoker, $4.55 Buy-in (40,000/80,000 blinds, 6,400 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                    SB: 4,335,535 (54.2 bb)
                                    BB: 468,777 (5.9 bb)
                                    Hero (CO): 1,580,000 (19.8 bb)
                                    BTN: 725,688 (9.1 bb)

                                    Preflop: Hero is CO with A J
                                    Hero raises to 165,200, BTN folds, SB raises to 2,250,400, BB folds, Hero calls 1,408,400 and is all-in

                                    Flop: (3,252,800) 3 2 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                    Turn: (3,252,800) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                    River: (3,252,800) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                                    Results: 3,252,800 pot
                                    Final Board: 3 2 7 9 6
                                    SB showed 7 K and won 3,252,800 (1,672,800 net)
                                    Hero mucked A J and lost (-1,580,000 net)


                                    Final table of 5€ rebuy. This is profitable shove with heavy ICM in play. In fact, that should be the only move with this hand. However, chipleader was getting completely out of line and tournament was quite top heavy. Thought that V would reshove a lot of hands which are going to be dominated against AJ.
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                                    Old 11-03-2018, 04:38 PM   #42
                                    Allown85
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                                    Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                    once you have money, everything else will fall into place.
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                                    Old 11-04-2018, 12:50 PM   #43
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                                    Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                    One more bet W9: MIN-DET MIN -4,5 2,01 @Pinnacle

                                    Was planning to go through some hands before NFL, but feeling super exhausted after working the whole weekend in my dayjob. Just beer and games then.

                                    Quote:
                                    Originally Posted by Allown85 View Post
                                    once you have money, everything else will fall into place.
                                    Is this from some chinese fortune cookie?
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                                    Old 11-05-2018, 02:38 PM   #44
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                                    Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                    Good week in NFL, 4/4 right. Not going to bet the MNF.

                                    ---------------------------

                                      Poker Stars, $6.69 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                      Hero (SB): 8,970 (29.9 bb)
                                      BB: 8,232 (27.4 bb)
                                      UTG+1: 19,926 (66.4 bb)
                                      UTG+2: 23,494 (78.3 bb)
                                      MP1: 4,995 (16.7 bb)
                                      MP2: 23,175 (77.3 bb)
                                      MP3: 4,317 (14.4 bb)
                                      CO: 12,856 (42.9 bb)
                                      BTN: 9,269 (30.9 bb)

                                      Preflop: Hero is SB with 6 A
                                      5 folds, CO raises to 600, BTN folds, Hero calls 450, BB folds

                                      Flop: (1,860) Q K 2 (2 players)
                                      Hero checks, CO checks

                                      Turn: (1,860) 5 (2 players)
                                      Hero bets 1,395, CO calls 1,395

                                      River: (4,650) 4 (2 players)
                                      Hero bets 6,935 and is all-in, CO folds

                                      Results: 4,650 pot
                                      Final Board: Q K 2 5 4
                                      Hero mucked 6 A and won 4,650 (2,615 net)
                                      CO mucked and lost (-2,035 net)


                                      This flop is very good for SB cold call range. I will be shoving every pocket pair from 99 below, so my range interacts well with KQ2. With the backdoor flush draw leading would be an option for some amount of the time. When V checks back the flop, betting turn with large sizing with this hand feels natural.

                                      ---------------------------------------------

                                        Poker Stars, $24.55 Buy-in (300/600 blinds, 70 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                        SB: 11,426 (19 bb)
                                        BB: 8,844 (14.7 bb)
                                        UTG+1: 12,189 (20.3 bb)
                                        UTG+2: 12,492 (20.8 bb)
                                        MP1: 6,398 (10.7 bb)
                                        MP2: 18,480 (30.8 bb)
                                        Hero (MP3): 10,824 (18 bb)
                                        CO: 40,705 (67.8 bb)
                                        BTN: 34,212 (57 bb)

                                        Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9 9
                                        4 folds, Hero raises to 1,272, CO calls 1,272, BTN folds, SB raises to 11,356 and is all-in, 3 folds

                                        Results: 5,046 pot
                                        SB mucked and won 5,046 (3,704 net)


                                        This is very bad fold. For some reason imagined COīs flat range full of traps when flatting with two <20bb stacks behind. In reality slow played big pockets are just so small portion of range that consists mainly of different broadway cards.
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                                        Old 11-05-2018, 09:10 PM   #45
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                                        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                        Quote:
                                        Originally Posted by TheEducatedGuesser View Post

                                        Is this from some chinese fortune cookie?


                                        Nice job on the NFL sweep this week!
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                                        Old 11-05-2018, 11:29 PM   #46
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                                        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                        Interesting read
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                                        Old 11-07-2018, 04:48 AM   #47
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                                        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                        Quote:
                                        Originally Posted by The Hashman View Post


                                        Nice job on the NFL sweep this week!
                                        Thanks! Focusing on fewer=most profitable bets seem to be paying off.

                                        Quote:
                                        Originally Posted by Excellent_one View Post
                                        Interesting read
                                        Thanks mate!

                                        ----------------------------------------------------

                                        Got burnt a few times in last session. After reviewing the hands, I still wouldnīt do anything differently:

                                          IPoker, $18.20 Buy-in (1,000/2,000 blinds, 200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
                                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                          Hero (SB): 45,588 (22.8 bb)
                                          BB: 41,410 (20.7 bb)
                                          MP: 164,366 (82.2 bb)
                                          CO: 113,453 (56.7 bb)
                                          BTN: 111,686 (55.8 bb)

                                          Preflop: Hero is SB with 5 A
                                          MP folds, CO raises to 4,000, BTN folds, Hero raises to 45,388 and is all-in, BB folds, CO calls 41,388

                                          Flop: (93,776) 3 A 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                          Turn: (93,776) T (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                          River: (93,776) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                                          Results: 93,776 pot
                                          Final Board: 3 A 6 T 8
                                          Hero mucked 5 A and lost (-45,588 net)
                                          CO showed J A and won 93,776 (48,188 net)


                                          Just after bubble. CO was opening very wide, and making A5s reshove way too profitable spot to be skipped.

                                          --------------------------------------------------------

                                            Pacific, $10.90 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                            SB: 39,662 (99.2 bb)
                                            BB: 19,216 (48 bb)
                                            UTG: 9,562 (23.9 bb)
                                            MP: 12,804 (32 bb)
                                            CO: 11,490 (28.7 bb)
                                            Hero (BTN): 6,312 (15.8 bb)

                                            Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q 7
                                            UTG folds, MP raises to 800, CO folds, Hero raises to 6,262 and is all-in, SB raises to 11,724, BB folds, MP raises to 12,754 and is all-in, SB calls 1,030

                                            Flop: (32,470) 7 8 K (3 players, 2 are all-in)
                                            Turn: (32,470) 5 (3 players, 2 are all-in)
                                            River: (32,470) T (3 players, 2 are all-in)

                                            Results: 32,470 pot
                                            Final Board: 7 8 K 5 T
                                            SB showed A A and won 32,470 (19,666 net)
                                            MP showed K A and lost (-12,804 net)
                                            Hero showed Q 7 and lost (-6,312 net)


                                            This is of course thinner, but MP was opening nearly 40% and folding 70% to 3bets.

                                            ------------------------------------------------------------

                                              IPoker, $18.20 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                              SB: 10,302 (34.3 bb)
                                              Hero (BB): 16,008 (53.4 bb)
                                              UTG: 12,410 (41.4 bb)
                                              MP: 9,920 (33.1 bb)
                                              CO: 2,459 (8.2 bb)
                                              BTN: 7,818 (26.1 bb)

                                              Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 A
                                              3 folds, BTN raises to 600, SB folds, Hero raises to 15,978 and is all-in, BTN folds

                                              Results: 1,530 pot
                                              Hero mucked 9 A and won 1,530 (900 net)


                                              Again, BTN opening way too many hands. Could flat this hand too, but being offsuited makes me think this is the easier way to get the EV.

                                              ---------------------------------------------

                                                IPoker, $4.75 Buy-in (1,750/3,500 blinds, 350 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
                                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                SB: 65,403 (18.7 bb)
                                                BB: 46,842 (13.4 bb)
                                                MP1: 60,500 (17.3 bb)
                                                Hero (MP2): 79,310 (22.7 bb)
                                                MP3: 49,975 (14.3 bb)
                                                CO: 41,448 (11.8 bb)
                                                BTN: 115,378 (33 bb)

                                                Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A T
                                                MP1 folds, Hero raises to 7,200, 3 folds, SB raises to 65,053 and is all-in, 2 folds

                                                Results: 20,350 pot
                                                SB mucked and won 20,350 (12,800 net)


                                                On the bubble.

                                                --------------------------------------------------------

                                                  IPoker, $18.20 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 100 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                  SB: 20,024 (20 bb)
                                                  Hero (BB): 32,996 (33 bb)
                                                  UTG: 16,719 (16.7 bb)
                                                  MP: 65,978 (66 bb)
                                                  CO: 31,860 (31.9 bb)
                                                  BTN: 73,903 (73.9 bb)

                                                  Preflop: Hero is BB with T T
                                                  UTG raises to 2,000, 3 folds, SB raises to 6,000, Hero folds, UTG calls 4,000

                                                  Flop: (13,600) 6 8 K (2 players)
                                                  SB bets 11,000, UTG folds

                                                  Results: 13,600 pot
                                                  Final Board: 6 8 K
                                                  SB mucked and won 13,600 (7,500 net)
                                                  UTG mucked and lost (-6,100 net)


                                                  Looks super strong when SB 3bets small OOP with 20BB stack. I should probably be folding even QQ in this spot.

                                                  Last edited by TheEducatedGuesser; 11-07-2018 at 05:07 AM.
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                                                  Old 11-09-2018, 04:23 AM   #48
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                                                  Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                  Two bets in for W10:



                                                  Also waiting for player bets to emerge, I have one bet in mind, Robby Anderson over the line in catching yards. QB Darnold is supposed to be out for the game and backup McCownīs go-to guy last season was Anderson.

                                                  ---------------------------------------

                                                  Somehow keep running like crap in Winamax even though I donīt even play there anymore. They have this promotion "1 of 5 deposits win things". I deposited ten separate times, not winning anything. 10% change of that happening if it truly is randomized.



                                                  But because I am a man of fairness, I will give better changes of me cancelling my withdrawal than me winning in that deposit bonus campaign. I will give 1% change that I will press the cancel-button. 1>0, right?

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                                                  Old 11-10-2018, 04:27 AM   #49
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                                                  Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                  Couple of player bets for W10:

                                                  IND-JAX JAX Keelan Cole U 3,5 receptions 1,66 @Betfair

                                                  Ahead of Cole in snap counts are WRs Westbrook, Moncrief and Chark. Cole has also fumbled the ball too many times in recent history.

                                                  IND-JAX IND Marlon Mack O 61,5 rush yards 1,90 @Betfair

                                                  Jacksonvilleīs rush defense hasnīt been very good. Indyīs offense has looked more balanced in recent games, although two last opponents have been two of the worst teams in league.
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                                                  Old 11-11-2018, 10:11 AM   #50
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                                                  Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                  One final bet W10:

                                                  OAK-LAC LAC -9,5 1,96 @Unibet

                                                  Chargers have a dynamic offense and Raiders are just tanking at this point.

                                                  Also made one more season bet: Philadelphia to win SB, half of the bet goes to PHI reaching final; 26 @William Hill.

                                                  Right now Philly has very good chance to get division first place and get their playoff spot.

                                                  Last edited by TheEducatedGuesser; 11-11-2018 at 10:28 AM.
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