Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Poker Goals & Challenges Post your threads logging your travels up the poker ladder as you achieve your poker goals and dreams. "Challenges" does NOT mean prop bets, wagers, etc.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-26-2018, 07:29 AM   #1
TheEducatedGuesser
centurion
 
TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 114
The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

The Guesser:

-Early 30īs
-Several years of poker background
-Playing for side income
-Having curiosity built in nature

The Games:

-MTTīs starting at 15$ abi
-Betting in NFL, mostly spread bets and totals
-Stock market investments

The Education:

-Sims (PIO, ProPokerTools, Equilab, pen and paper)
-Videos (RIO,RYE, selected streams)
-NFL stats, betting forums, Warren Sharpīs material



I have been playing poker as a side income for few years now. 90% of my games are MTTīs from 5$ to 33$. I have built my roll to little over 10k at a time and then "resetted" it back to 5k and repeated the process. Reset was not due to tilt or anything like that, I just wanted to move the money to stocks and spending.

Most recent reset was done in the beginning of August, back to the familiar 5000€. But this time I will be not resetting my roll. First time in years I donīt have a high-rake girlfriend and my expenses have dropped significantly, so I can afford to build my roll for bigger games. Right now I am sitting with little over 6400€, so I will be taking it from there.

As for the NFL betting, this will be my second season doing that. First year I made little profit, mostly due to the correct guess of Jacksonville making finally a leap to playoffs.

This year I am with Baltimore and New Orleans alongside with high-variance early season bets on Indianapolis (Gonna need good Luck with this one, I guess).
TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-29-2018, 07:37 PM   #2
TheEducatedGuesser
centurion
 
TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 114
Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

Played a laid back session with avg 6 tables open. Not a very good session, got sucked out few times in critical times.

    Poker Stars, $9.80 Buy-in (700/1,400 blinds, 175 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: 48,885 (34.9 bb)
    BB: 100,482 (71.8 bb)
    UTG+2: 69,198 (49.4 bb)
    MP1: 18,858 (13.5 bb)
    Hero (MP2): 73,311 (52.4 bb)
    MP3: 84,756 (60.5 bb)
    CO: 31,603 (22.6 bb)
    BTN: 89,605 (64 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K A
    2 folds, Hero raises to 3,080, MP3 calls 3,080, CO folds, BTN calls 3,080, SB folds, BB calls 1,680

    Flop: (14,420) A 4 2 (4 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets 4,759, MP3 raises to 12,000, 2 folds, Hero calls 7,241

    Turn: (38,420) 7 (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP3 checks

    River: (38,420) A (2 players)
    Hero bets 12,679, MP3 raises to 28,500, Hero calls 15,821

    Spoiler:


    Not in love after the the flop raise, but AQ/AJ could do that same play. No idea why he didnīt want to take all my chips, but hell Iīll take free 20BB any day.

    Made also some early NFL bets for the first week. I got ATL +4 @2,05. Now the line has dropped to +3 and 1,90sh, so pretty happy with that. I believe Atlanta will be tough this year.

    DEN-SEA total o42 @ 1,97
    + Both teamsīs average O/U last season was around 44
    + DEN has a decent QB now, making it more probable to get higher points
    + Game is played in Denver, where the air is thinner and encourages to try more long field goals

    LAR-OAK total u 49,5
    + last season avg lines around 46
    + OAK might want to establish run game early, potentially making the game more of a defensive war, thus the clock is going to run also
    - OAK def is horrible

    In the stock market, my single biggest holding received an offer to buy all their stocks for 14% premium. So that was a nice score.
    TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
    Old 09-01-2018, 03:16 AM   #3
    TheEducatedGuesser
    centurion
     
    TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Aug 2018
    Posts: 114
    Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

    Had two absolutely horrible sessions and dropped 800€ to them. Finished month with 5600€.

      IPoker, $4.55 Buy-in (4,500/9,000 blinds, 720 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: 85,161 (9.5 bb)
      BB: 389,228 (43.2 bb)
      MP1: 275,470 (30.6 bb)
      MP2: 433,987 (48.2 bb)
      MP3: 58,882 (6.5 bb)
      Hero (CO): 196,846 (21.9 bb)
      BTN: 40,190 (4.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q A
      3 folds, Hero raises to 19,000, 2 folds, BB calls 10,000

      Flop: (47,540) 2 5 3 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      Turn: (47,540) 2 (2 players)
      BB bets 23,770, Hero calls 23,770

      River: (95,080) T (2 players)
      BB bets 345,738 and is all-in, Hero calls 153,356 and is all-in

      Results: 401,792 pot
      Final Board: 2 5 3 2 T
      BB showed K Q and lost (-196,846 net)
      Hero mucked Q A and won 401,792 (204,946 net)


      I had a read on this guy that he goes out of control if pre aggressor checked. He didnīt disappoint me.

      Next game time will be on sunday and I will be taking a shot to 109$ PLO WCOOP.
      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
      Old 09-02-2018, 10:18 PM   #4
      TheEducatedGuesser
      centurion
       
      TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
       
      Join Date: Aug 2018
      Posts: 114
      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

      Managed to get to final 5% in the 109$ PLO WCOOP. In the end didnīt hit anything and ended up flipping last 5 bb in 60/40 hand.

        Poker Stars, $100 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds) Pot Limit Omaha Tournament, 5 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

        SB: 401,740 (100.4 bb)
        Hero (BB): 263,861 (66 bb)
        MP: 228,405 (57.1 bb)
        CO: 373,622 (93.4 bb)
        BTN: 163,781 (40.9 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is BB with A 5 Q A
        3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to 12,000, SB calls 8,000

        Flop: (24,000) 8 K T (2 players)
        SB checks, Hero bets 7,920, SB raises to 38,198, Hero calls 30,278

        Turn: (100,396) J (2 players)
        SB checks, Hero bets 40,000, SB calls 40,000

        River: (180,396) J (2 players)
        SB bets 180,396, Hero folds

        Results: 180,396 pot
        Final Board: 8 K T J J
        SB mucked and won 180,396 (90,198 net)
        Hero mucked A 5 Q A and lost (-90,198 net)


        I felt like this was an easy laydown on the river with the A of diamonds. Maybe could have bet a little more on the turn, but he didnīt still get the straight odds with a set.

          Poker Stars, $100 Buy-in (3,000/6,000 blinds) Pot Limit Omaha Tournament, 6 Players
          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

          SB: 650,725 (108.5 bb)
          Hero (BB): 222,626 (37.1 bb)
          UTG: 74,934 (12.5 bb)
          MP: 244,122 (40.7 bb)
          CO: 209,018 (34.8 bb)
          BTN: 146,702 (24.5 bb)

          Preflop: Hero is BB with J 4 Q 8
          4 folds, SB completes, Hero checks

          Flop: (12,000) T 9 2 (2 players)
          SB checks, Hero checks

          Turn: (12,000) 8 (2 players)
          SB checks, Hero bets 9,000, SB raises to 36,000, Hero raises to 90,000, SB raises to 282,000, Hero calls 126,626 and is all-in

          River: (445,252) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

          Results: 445,252 pot
          Final Board: T 9 2 8 8
          SB showed K 6 J J and lost (-222,626 net)
          Hero showed J 4 Q 8 and won 445,252 (222,626 net)


          This was versus the same player as in the hand above. Decided to raise this smaller amount to rep JJ blockers but it was actually villain with the blocker bluff
          TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
          Old 09-04-2018, 06:46 AM   #5
          TheEducatedGuesser
          centurion
           
          TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
           
          Join Date: Aug 2018
          Posts: 114
          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

          I have started incorporating some major donkbetting to my game. I have an assumption that people donīt play very well against these leads. It allows me to take control of the pot on flops that are more favorable to my range. Same logic applies when turn is a favorable card.

            Party, $15 Buy-in (950/1,900 blinds, 235 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

            SB: 87,216 (45.9 bb)
            Hero (BB): 90,170 (47.5 bb)
            UTG+2: 137,310 (72.3 bb)
            MP1: 67,663 (35.6 bb)
            MP2: 282,287 (148.6 bb)
            MP3: 166,363 (87.6 bb)
            CO: 77,088 (40.6 bb)
            BTN: 191,903 (101 bb)

            Preflop: Hero is BB with Q 9
            UTG+2 raises to 3,800, 6 folds, Hero calls 1,900

            Flop: (10,430) 4 Q 5 (2 players)
            Hero checks, UTG+2 bets 5,215, Hero calls 5,215

            Turn: (20,860) 4 (2 players)
            Hero bets 6,883, UTG+2 calls 6,883

            River: (34,626) 6 (2 players)
            Hero checks, UTG+2 checks

            Results: 34,626 pot
            Final Board: 4 Q 5 4 6
            Hero showed Q 9 and won 34,626 (18,493 net)
            UTG+2 mucked J A and lost (-16,133 net)


            According to my studies, Villain should be raising this donk with hands like KJdd etc which I donīt think will happen very much. Villainsīs particular hand, AJcc should be folding always on the turn.

              Poker Stars, $6.69 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

              SB: 4,871 (24.4 bb)
              Hero (BB): 6,362 (31.8 bb)
              UTG+1: 4,799 (24 bb)
              UTG+2: 17,653 (88.3 bb)
              MP1: 5,870 (29.4 bb)
              MP2: 11,427 (57.1 bb)
              MP3: 3,671 (18.4 bb)
              CO: 5,920 (29.6 bb)
              BTN: 4,946 (24.7 bb)

              Preflop: Hero is BB with T Q
              5 folds, CO raises to 500, 2 folds, Hero calls 300

              Flop: (1,325) 9 3 6 (2 players)
              Hero bets 437, CO calls 437

              Turn: (2,199) 7 (2 players)
              Hero bets 1,167, CO folds

              Results: 2,199 pot
              Final Board: 9 3 6 7
              Hero mucked T Q and won 2,199 (1,237 net)
              CO mucked and lost (-962 net)


              Same thing here, V should be raising my 33% donk bet relatively often. I have very many potential barreling spots on turn with all those backdoor draws, and I want to be the one who chooses the price on the flop.

                Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (60/120 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                SB: 11,870 (98.9 bb)
                Hero (BB): 9,131 (76.1 bb)
                UTG+1: 10,535 (87.8 bb)
                UTG+2: 12,500 (104.2 bb)
                MP1: 11,842 (98.7 bb)
                MP2: 9,135 (76.1 bb)
                MP3: 10,906 (90.9 bb)
                CO: 6,932 (57.8 bb)
                BTN: 12,097 (100.8 bb)

                Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
                2 folds, MP1 raises to 240, 5 folds, Hero calls 120

                Flop: (675) 2 6 3 (2 players)
                Hero checks, MP1 bets 216, Hero calls 216

                Turn: (1,107) 5 (2 players)
                Hero bets 600, MP1 folds

                Results: 1,107 pot
                Final Board: 2 6 3 5
                Hero mucked J A and won 1,107 (636 net)
                MP1 mucked and lost (-471 net)


                With Ad I decided to lead and try to just get the pot immediately. Being this deep is IMO very good thing when turn is a 5, it will allow to make huge overbets on the river and therefore is a powerful tool to make Vīs life hell.
                TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                Old 09-06-2018, 10:00 PM   #6
                TheEducatedGuesser
                centurion
                 
                TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                 
                Join Date: Aug 2018
                Posts: 114
                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                Had pretty nice session. I won one tourney for 650$, got loads of mincashes and survived to second day in 22$ 4-max NLHE WCOOP.




                  Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (3,500/7,000 blinds, 875 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                  SB: 517,004 (73.9 bb)
                  BB: 717,737 (102.5 bb)
                  Hero (CO): 692,934 (99 bb)
                  BTN: 593,085 (84.7 bb)

                  Preflop: Hero is CO with Q K
                  Hero raises to 15,400, BTN raises to 44,000, 2 folds, Hero raises to 126,000, BTN calls 82,000

                  Flop: (266,000) 7 T Q (2 players)
                  Hero bets 140,000, BTN calls 140,000

                  Turn: (546,000) 7 (2 players)
                  Hero bets 426,059 and is all-in, BTN folds

                  Results: 546,000 pot
                  Final Board: 7 T Q 7
                  Hero mucked Q K and won 546,000 (279,125 net)
                  BTN mucked and lost (-266,875 net)


                  I think this is good hand to 4bet bluff pre. Postflop I guess there is nothing more to do than get it in on this drawy board.

                    Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                    Hero (SB): 23,781 (118.9 bb)
                    BB: 24,575 (122.9 bb)
                    CO: 25,255 (126.3 bb)
                    BTN: 27,486 (137.4 bb)

                    Preflop: Hero is SB with A 6
                    2 folds, Hero raises to 600, BB calls 400

                    Flop: (1,300) Q 3 5 (2 players)
                    Hero checks, BB bets 1,000, Hero raises to 2,800, BB raises to 23,950 and is all-in, Hero calls 20,356 and is all-in

                    Turn: (47,612) Q (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                    River: (47,612) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                    Results: 47,612 pot
                    Final Board: Q 3 5 Q 3
                    Hero showed A 6 and lost (-23,781 net)
                    BB showed K Q and won 47,612 (23,831 net)


                    I lost my first buy-in in this hand. WCOOP

                    ----------------------------------------------------------
                    Added two more bets for week 1 in NFL:

                    BUF-BAL total o 42
                    MIN-SF total u 46
                    TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                    Old 09-08-2018, 06:05 AM   #7
                    TheEducatedGuesser
                    centurion
                     
                    TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                     
                    Join Date: Aug 2018
                    Posts: 114
                    Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                    Lost ATL +4 mostly due to ****ed up extra point by Atlanta. Their offensive line also didnīt really convince, although PHI def was also very good.

                    --------

                    Donking continues:

                      Winamax, $18 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                      Hero (SB): 55,303 (138.3 bb)
                      BB: 33,760 (84.4 bb)
                      UTG: 15,570 (38.9 bb)
                      MP: 12,458 (31.1 bb)
                      CO: 23,326 (58.3 bb)
                      BTN: 25,306 (63.3 bb)

                      Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 8
                      2 folds, CO raises to 800, BTN folds, Hero calls 600, BB folds

                      Flop: (2,300) 6 T 5 (2 players)
                      Hero bets 759, CO calls 759

                      Turn: (3,818) 8 (2 players)
                      Hero bets 2,864, CO raises to 8,000, Hero raises to 53,694 and is all-in, CO folds

                      Results: 19,818 pot
                      Final Board: 6 T 5 8
                      Hero mucked 7 8 and won 19,818 (10,209 net)
                      CO mucked and lost (-9,609 net)


                      With SB range this board should allow high donking %. On the turn made mistake, because I should keep his bluffs in and just call the turn. On the other hand people donīt usually follow their lines he might just given up when I called.

                        Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (7,000/14,000 blinds, 1,750 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                        SB: 116,402 (8.3 bb)
                        Hero (BB): 533,267 (38.1 bb)
                        CO: 1,043,280 (74.5 bb)
                        BTN: 1,827,099 (130.5 bb)

                        Preflop: Hero is BB with 3 4
                        CO folds, BTN raises to 28,000, SB folds, Hero calls 14,000

                        Flop: (70,000) 2 6 3 (2 players)
                        Hero bets 23,100, BTN calls 23,100

                        Turn: (116,200) 6 (2 players)
                        Hero checks, BTN checks

                        River: (116,200) J (2 players)
                        Hero checks, BTN bets 83,664, Hero calls 83,664

                        Results: 283,528 pot
                        Final Board: 2 6 3 6 J
                        Hero mucked 3 4 and lost (-136,514 net)
                        BTN showed A J and won 283,528 (147,014 net)


                        Didnīt know whether I should be using this combo as a three barrel bluff or make it a bluffcatcher... Feels like I played this poorly.
                        TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                        Old 09-11-2018, 08:41 AM   #8
                        TheEducatedGuesser
                        centurion
                         
                        TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                         
                        Join Date: Aug 2018
                        Posts: 114
                        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                        Nice start for the NFL, got right 9/12 bets on week 1. There were very juicy special player bets on Betfair and gladly spotted those just before game time.

                        Today going to play some WCOOP and Powerfest and tomorrow it is time to take first look on week 2.

                        TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                        Old 09-12-2018, 05:11 AM   #9
                        TheEducatedGuesser
                        centurion
                         
                        TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                         
                        Join Date: Aug 2018
                        Posts: 114
                        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                        Took a shot at 109$ PKO on Stars and Party, and also 55$ 4max PKO PLO and 55$ NLHE on Stars. All busted, so time to reduce the avg. buy-in.

                          Winamax, $9 Buy-in (25,000/50,000 blinds, 6,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                          SB: 1,106,649 (22.1 bb)
                          BB: 3,394,571 (67.9 bb)
                          Hero (CO): 1,378,191 (27.6 bb)
                          BTN: 1,155,567 (23.1 bb)

                          Preflop: Hero is CO with Q J
                          Hero calls 50,000, BTN folds, SB completes, BB folds

                          Flop: (174,000) 6 7 3 (2 players)
                          SB bets 71,340, Hero calls 71,340

                          Turn: (316,680) Q (2 players)
                          SB bets 200,000, Hero calls 200,000

                          River: (716,680) A (2 players)
                          SB bets 779,309 and is all-in, Hero calls 779,309

                          Results: 2,275,298 pot
                          Final Board: 6 7 3 Q A
                          SB showed 8 K and won 2,275,298 (1,168,649 net)
                          Hero showed Q J and lost (-1,106,649 net)


                          There were bunch of aggromonkeys after me, so I think limping is fine here. This was the best chance to make some money, but it is Winamax after all, cant win anything there. Going to withdraw all my rolls from there and never play again. -4300€ in 1,5 years is just too much.

                          ---------------------------------------------

                          First NFL bet of week 2: PIT-KC u 52,5 Both teamsīs avg line last season was around 44-46.
                          TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                          Old 09-13-2018, 12:03 PM   #10
                          TheEducatedGuesser
                          centurion
                           
                          TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                           
                          Join Date: Aug 2018
                          Posts: 114
                          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                          More NFL week 2 bets:

                          14.9. CIN-BAL total under 45 @1,95
                          Last season both teams had avg line at 40. Not very explosive offences or dynamic QBīs.

                          16.9. WAS-IND IND+6 @1,917
                          Before season line was at +3. Now that Luck looks to be in shape, my money money goes on Colts.

                          16.9. TAM-PHI Total u44 @1,934
                          Philly has very good def, but Foles looks rusty. I doubt Fitzpatrick has similar stroke this week like last sunday.

                          16.9. ATL-CAR ATL-5,5 @1,925
                          Atlanta was ATS (Against the spread) 5-3 at home least year. They lost on week 1, so motivation should be 100%. CAR lost TE Olsen and Tackle Williams in last game.

                          17.9. CHI-SEA CHI-3 @1,862
                          Chicago looks competitive team, QB Trubisky has made progress, LB Mack has week more experience with new team and SEA is just struggling so much at the moment.
                          TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                          Old 09-15-2018, 06:48 AM   #11
                          TheEducatedGuesser
                          centurion
                           
                          TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                           
                          Join Date: Aug 2018
                          Posts: 114
                          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                          Last session felt good, although money wise it ended only in small loss.

                            Winamax, $9 Buy-in (400/800 blinds, 100 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                            SB: 49,560 (62 bb)
                            Hero (BB): 48,171 (60.2 bb)
                            UTG: 54,930 (68.7 bb)
                            MP: 44,666 (55.8 bb)
                            CO: 24,666 (30.8 bb)
                            BTN: 81,379 (101.7 bb)

                            Preflop: Hero is BB with J 8
                            3 folds, BTN raises to 1,777, SB folds, Hero calls 977

                            Flop: (4,554) 7 3 T (2 players)
                            Hero checks, BTN bets 1,490, Hero raises to 5,414, BTN calls 3,924

                            Turn: (15,382) 4 (2 players)
                            Hero bets 11,200, BTN folds

                            Results: 15,382 pot
                            Final Board: 7 3 T 4
                            Hero mucked J 8 and won 15,382 (8,091 net)
                            BTN mucked and lost (-7,291 net)


                            Decided to just play my remaining Winamax money instead of withdrawing. Got 15€ left, then bye bye Losamax! One of the good cards on the turn and mandatory second barrel.

                              Poker Stars, $4.90 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                              SB: 22,006 (55 bb)
                              Hero (BB): 16,504 (41.3 bb)
                              UTG+2: 10,383 (26 bb)
                              MP1: 7,819 (19.5 bb)
                              MP2: 12,229 (30.6 bb)
                              MP3: 3,785 (9.5 bb)
                              CO: 10,277 (25.7 bb)
                              BTN: 12,543 (31.4 bb)

                              Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
                              UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to 800, 5 folds, Hero calls 400

                              Flop: (2,200) 6 7 9 (2 players)
                              Hero bets 726, MP1 calls 726

                              Turn: (3,652) 7 (2 players)
                              Hero bets 2,191, MP1 calls 2,191

                              River: (8,034) J (2 players)
                              Hero bets 12,737 and is all-in, MP1 folds

                              Results: 8,034 pot
                              Final Board: 6 7 9 7 J
                              Hero mucked J A and won 8,034 (4,267 net)
                              MP1 mucked and lost (-3,767 net)


                              Very nice flop for my range. On the river I am targeting 9x and worse Jx for value.

                                Poker Stars, $4.90 Buy-in (125/250 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                Hero (SB): 11,426 (45.7 bb)
                                BB: 11,095 (44.4 bb)
                                MP1: 16,369 (65.5 bb)
                                MP2: 10,817 (43.3 bb)
                                MP3: 2,420 (9.7 bb)
                                CO: 13,823 (55.3 bb)
                                BTN: 19,230 (76.9 bb)

                                Preflop: Hero is SB with 6 8
                                5 folds, Hero completes, BB checks

                                Flop: (710) K K 5 (2 players)
                                Hero bets 267, BB calls 267

                                Turn: (1,244) 9 (2 players)
                                Hero bets 1,124, BB folds

                                Results: 1,244 pot
                                Final Board: K K 5 9
                                Hero mucked 6 8 and won 1,244 (697 net)
                                BB mucked and lost (-547 net)


                                With gutshot and flush blocker targeting Ax and Qx floats with this big betsize.

                                -------------------------------------------------

                                Ordered Yuval Noah Harariīs latest book "21 lessons for the 21st century". Like his earlier books, this one seems to be very interesting and thought provoking as well. Easily one of the most influential writers on personal level for me this decade.
                                TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                Old 09-18-2018, 08:35 AM   #12
                                TheEducatedGuesser
                                centurion
                                 
                                TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                 
                                Join Date: Aug 2018
                                Posts: 114
                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                Week 2 was the opposite of first week, only 5/14 bets right.

                                One bet already made for W3, MIN-BUF BUF+17 @ 1,869. That is a big handicap and I trust BUF to be professional team and be better than in their first 1,5 games.

                                No poker in at least few days, really feel like not interested one bit playing at the moment.
                                TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                Old 09-23-2018, 04:18 AM   #13
                                TheEducatedGuesser
                                centurion
                                 
                                TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                 
                                Join Date: Aug 2018
                                Posts: 114
                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                Traded 1/3 of that BUF +17 away, because McCoy has problems with ribs and it seems that the line should be more like +21 with all the injuries.

                                Some more W3 bets:

                                ATL-NO NO+3

                                New Orleans should get more room to run this week and eventually get their offence more balanced.

                                ATL-NO, Tevin Coleman over 67,5 rushing yards

                                ATL lost Devonta Freeman and Coleman is the man in this game. NOīs rush defence is mediocre at best.

                                HOU-NYG HOU-6

                                Giants canīt move the ball and I believe Watson gets his things together in this home game.

                                BAL-DEN Collins u 59,5 rushing yards

                                BAL has two running backs splitting touches pretty evenly. They also pass a lot to running backs, therefore not so many rushing yards expected. Denver also has above average rush def.

                                LAC-LAR LAR-7

                                LAC doesnīt practically have home field advantage here. Rams are the best team in the league right now.

                                PHI-IND u47

                                Luck keeps firing short throws and PHI has many injuries in the offensive side. Wentz can also be rusty, starting his first game of the season.

                                TAM-PIT PIT-1

                                Last chance for Steelers to come back to contention this season. Still not buying Fitzmagic, although I like his style very much. If he destroys this game also, I will be in the Buccaneer bandwagon.

                                -------------------------------------------------------

                                Took a look at HEM2 stats and noticed a positive change in couple of stats:



                                If I am correct, these stats mean how many times you win pots postflop when seen flop. Usually my numbers have been 43-45 and 0,95-0,98. I have started playing less tables and fighting pots more and those stats have gone up. Also, my EV/BB have risen from ~7 to ~13, but I have only 16k hands this month in. Not sure if this correlates with the recent donking strategy I have been deploying recently. Start seems good though.
                                TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                Old 09-25-2018, 06:31 AM   #14
                                TheEducatedGuesser
                                centurion
                                 
                                TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                 
                                Join Date: Aug 2018
                                Posts: 114
                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                Week 3 guesses: 7/13 right.

                                Early W4 selections:

                                LAC-SF U 47

                                Garoppoloīs season ended, so I think 49erīs game will be without long throws. Chargers have good offence, but both teams were avg. under 47 last season.

                                NYG-NO NO-3,5

                                Brees is on fire and should be dominating against Giants. Only concern is the awful D of the Saints.

                                ATL-CIN O 51,5

                                Atlanta is such an attack machine right now. If CIN has A.J. Green for the whole game, this feels like a good bet.

                                --------------------------------

                                Stars.eu and .es had nice Spin&Go promo, won almost every game and pocketed pure 160€ profit from it. Gonna play full session tomorrow. First time in many weeks have an actual itch to play.
                                TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                Old 09-27-2018, 11:59 PM   #15
                                The Hashman
                                grinder
                                 
                                The Hashman's Avatar
                                 
                                Join Date: Jul 2012
                                Posts: 547
                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                I like your totals, but your side says NO NO. Literally.
                                The Hashman is offline   Reply With Quote
                                Old 09-29-2018, 04:21 AM   #16
                                TheEducatedGuesser
                                centurion
                                 
                                TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                 
                                Join Date: Aug 2018
                                Posts: 114
                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                Quote:
                                Originally Posted by The Hashman View Post
                                I like your totals, but your side says NO NO. Literally.
                                What, you donīt trust NOīs ironclad Def??

                                ----------------------------------------------------
                                Last poker session of this month ended well, bankroll sits at 6768€ right now. Have been really confident with my game lately, trusting my instincts etc.

                                #1

                                  Poker Stars, $24.55 Buy-in (125/250 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                  SB: 10,093 (40.4 bb)
                                  BB: 13,605 (54.4 bb)
                                  UTG+2: 11,340 (45.4 bb)
                                  MP1: 16,205 (64.8 bb)
                                  Hero (MP2): 6,915 (27.7 bb)
                                  MP3: 7,212 (28.8 bb)
                                  CO: 10,202 (40.8 bb)
                                  BTN: 11,456 (45.8 bb)

                                  Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 2 A
                                  2 folds, Hero raises to 530, 4 folds, BB calls 280

                                  Flop: (1,425) 5 9 J (2 players)
                                  BB checks, Hero bets 371, BB calls 371

                                  Turn: (2,167) 3 (2 players)
                                  BB checks, Hero bets 1,300, BB calls 1,300

                                  River: (4,767) T (2 players)
                                  BB checks, Hero bets 4,684 and is all-in, BB folds

                                  Results: 4,767 pot
                                  Final Board: 5 9 J 3 T
                                  BB mucked and lost (-2,231 net)
                                  Hero mucked 2 A and won 4,767 (2,536 net)


                                  Decided to go three streets, villain seemed capable of folding. He has a lot of pair+FD type of hands of the flop and turn. Using 25% sizing and not getting raised means usually green light for barreling.

                                  #2

                                    Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (30,000/60,000 blinds, 7,500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                    SB: 1,652,634 (27.5 bb)
                                    BB: 524,396 (8.7 bb)
                                    UTG+1: 2,141,144 (35.7 bb)
                                    UTG+2: 799,579 (13.3 bb)
                                    MP1: 2,535,161 (42.3 bb)
                                    MP2: 1,892,309 (31.5 bb)
                                    MP3: 2,398,952 (40 bb)
                                    CO: 867,711 (14.5 bb)
                                    Hero (BTN): 1,208,114 (20.1 bb)

                                    Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q T
                                    6 folds, Hero raises to 127,200, SB folds, BB raises to 516,896 and is all-in, Hero calls 389,696

                                    Flop: (1,131,292) 8 T 3 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                    Turn: (1,131,292) 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                                    River: (1,131,292) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                                    Results: 1,131,292 pot
                                    Final Board: 8 T 3 7 5
                                    BB showed 2 6 and lost (-524,396 net)
                                    Hero showed Q T and won 1,131,292 (606,896 net)


                                    This was on FT, wtf is that reshove w/ 62o? Some fced up logic going on here.

                                    #3

                                      Pacific, $10.90 Buy-in (600/1,200 blinds, 150 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                      SB: 71,172 (59.3 bb)
                                      Hero (BB): 51,306 (42.8 bb)
                                      UTG+1: 23,768 (19.8 bb)
                                      UTG+2: 73,996 (61.7 bb)
                                      MP1: 29,735 (24.8 bb)
                                      MP2: 29,568 (24.6 bb)
                                      MP3: 40,897 (34.1 bb)
                                      CO: 45,989 (38.3 bb)
                                      BTN: 99,951 (83.3 bb)

                                      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q T
                                      UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 2,424, 6 folds, Hero calls 1,224

                                      Flop: (6,798) 5 4 3 (2 players)
                                      Hero bets 2,234, UTG+2 folds

                                      Results: 6,798 pot
                                      Final Board: 5 4 3
                                      Hero mucked Q T and won 6,798 (4,224 net)
                                      UTG+2 mucked and lost (-2,574 net)


                                      Donking FTW. Villain was raising 20% utg, sample size 350 hands. I think it is wide enough so I can lead these flops. This is the GTO leading frequency PIO suggests:



                                      V should be raising our donk over 14% and floating with hands like 89 of clubs which I just donīt see happening. I put V to fold the flop with hands like KQo,KJo, which should be part of 20% RFI:



                                      #4

                                        Poker Stars, $24.55 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                        SB: 5,362 (26.8 bb)
                                        BB: 9,902 (49.5 bb)
                                        UTG+1: 11,546 (57.7 bb)
                                        UTG+2: 8,270 (41.4 bb)
                                        MP1: 13,915 (69.6 bb)
                                        MP2: 9,950 (49.8 bb)
                                        MP3: 11,805 (59 bb)
                                        CO: 6,678 (33.4 bb)
                                        Hero (BTN): 9,600 (48 bb)

                                        Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7 7
                                        UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 400, 4 folds, Hero calls 400, 2 folds

                                        Flop: (1,325) 9 5 8 (2 players)
                                        UTG+2 bets 583, Hero calls 583

                                        Turn: (2,491) J (2 players)
                                        UTG+2 bets 1,800, Hero calls 1,800

                                        River: (6,091) 6 (2 players)
                                        UTG+2 bets 5,462 and is all-in, Hero folds

                                        Results: 6,091 pot
                                        Final Board: 9 5 8 J 6
                                        UTG+2 mucked and won 6,091 (3,283 net)
                                        Hero mucked 7 7 and lost (-2,808 net)


                                        I guess standard??? Felt a bit stupid calling turn when V should be checking a ton on that board with these ranges.

                                        #5

                                          Pacific, $10.90 Buy-in (125/250 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
                                          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                          SB: 12,626 (50.5 bb)
                                          BB: 10,111 (40.4 bb)
                                          CO: 9,386 (37.5 bb)
                                          Hero (BTN): 9,320 (37.3 bb)

                                          Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 K
                                          CO folds, Hero raises to 533, SB folds, BB calls 283

                                          Flop: (1,311) 4 J T (2 players)
                                          BB checks, Hero bets 897, BB calls 897

                                          Turn: (3,105) 6 (2 players)
                                          BB checks, Hero bets 1,750, BB calls 1,750

                                          River: (6,605) 6 (2 players)
                                          BB checks, Hero bets 6,110 and is all-in, BB folds

                                          Results: 6,605 pot
                                          Final Board: 4 J T 6 6
                                          BB mucked and lost (-3,210 net)
                                          Hero mucked 9 K and won 6,605 (3,395 net)


                                          Flipped basically a coin whether to bluff the river or not. Very easy to end up bluffing too much with such action turn.

                                          -----------------------------------------------------------
                                          Some more NFL bets:

                                          IND-HOU U47

                                          Luck was taken out for last hail mary attempt in the end of last game. Strong indicator that short throwing is going to continue. Really interesting to see how Houston is going to organise their defense here.

                                          IND-HOU IND moneyline

                                          Coltsī defense has looked surprisingly good. Facing 0-3 HOU at home stadium seems like a good matchup.

                                          PIT-BAL U51

                                          Really looking forward to this game since I have BAL to win division. BALīs LB C.J. Mosley is coming back and I trust Flacco for not destroying this PIT defense.
                                          TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                          Old 10-02-2018, 08:54 AM   #17
                                          TheEducatedGuesser
                                          centurion
                                           
                                          TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                           
                                          Join Date: Aug 2018
                                          Posts: 114
                                          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                          Week 4 Recap:

                                          7/13 successful bets. Worst bet this week was NYJ +7, which wasnīt even close.

                                          Early W5:



                                          Season this far has been slightly profitable, I am up 4,5 units.

                                          Some pre-season bets that I made:

                                          BAL to get to playoffs @2,5, win division @5,5, win conference @23 and win SB @51.

                                          NO to win conference @12, to win SB @19.

                                          IND to win division @7 and to get playoffs @4,33. This bet doesnīt look good after last sunday. Their head coach is quite a gambler, kinda like that attitude.
                                          TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                          Old 10-05-2018, 04:37 AM   #18
                                          TheEducatedGuesser
                                          centurion
                                           
                                          TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                           
                                          Join Date: Aug 2018
                                          Posts: 114
                                          Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                          More W5 bets:



                                          #1

                                            Poker Stars, $9 Buy-in (75/150 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                            SB: 21,536 (143.6 bb)
                                            BB: 4,817 (32.1 bb)
                                            UTG+1: 7,083 (47.2 bb)
                                            UTG+2: 9,731 (64.9 bb)
                                            MP1: 21,404 (142.7 bb)
                                            MP2: 7,036 (46.9 bb)
                                            MP3: 5,731 (38.2 bb)
                                            CO: 9,695 (64.6 bb)
                                            Hero (BTN): 11,505 (76.7 bb)

                                            Preflop: Hero is BTN with J K
                                            4 folds, MP3 raises to 336, CO folds, Hero calls 336, 2 folds

                                            Flop: (1,077) 9 8 5 (2 players)
                                            MP3 checks, Hero bets 280, MP3 calls 280

                                            Turn: (1,637) 9 (2 players)
                                            MP3 checks, Hero bets 768, MP3 folds
                                            Results: 1,637 pot
                                            Final Board: 9 8 5 9
                                            MP3 mucked and lost (-636 net)
                                            Hero mucked J K and won 1,637 (1,001 net)


                                            A spot where IPīs betsize should be around 20-50% of the pot. I like betting here a lot since I have a feeling pplīs x ranges are imbalanced in these spots.

                                            #2

                                              Poker Stars, $6.69 Buy-in (800/1,600 blinds, 200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                              SB: 24,005 (15 bb)
                                              BB: 49,869 (31.2 bb)
                                              Hero (UTG+1): 38,595 (24.1 bb)
                                              UTG+2: 81,158 (50.7 bb)
                                              MP1: 44,208 (27.6 bb)
                                              MP2: 48,499 (30.3 bb)
                                              MP3: 10,274 (6.4 bb)
                                              CO: 77,308 (48.3 bb)
                                              BTN: 58,669 (36.7 bb)

                                              Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q A
                                              Hero raises to 3,392, 5 folds, BTN calls 3,392, 2 folds

                                              Flop: (10,984) 8 4 2 (2 players)
                                              Hero bets 8,238, BTN calls 8,238

                                              Turn: (27,460) Q (2 players)
                                              Hero bets 26,765 and is all-in, BTN folds

                                              Results: 27,460 pot
                                              Final Board: 8 4 2 Q
                                              Hero mucked Q A and won 27,460 (15,630 net)
                                              BTN mucked and lost (-11,830 net)


                                              I felt I can bet with large sizings due to my tight and nutty UTG range. 33% turn bet would probably be better here.

                                              #3

                                                Poker Stars, $6.69 Buy-in (250/500 blinds, 65 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
                                                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                Hero (SB): 17,490 (35 bb)
                                                BB: 5,243 (10.5 bb)
                                                UTG+1: 14,218 (28.4 bb)
                                                UTG+2: 5,410 (10.8 bb)
                                                MP1: 18,251 (36.5 bb)
                                                MP2: 23,355 (46.7 bb)
                                                MP3: 7,532 (15.1 bb)
                                                CO: 13,273 (26.5 bb)
                                                BTN: 8,949 (17.9 bb)

                                                Preflop: Hero is SB with J J
                                                2 folds, MP1 raises to 1,095, 4 folds, Hero calls 845, BB folds

                                                Flop: (3,275) 4 5 9 (2 players)
                                                Hero checks, MP1 bets 1,998, Hero calls 1,998

                                                Turn: (7,271) 4 (2 players)
                                                Hero checks, MP1 bets 3,054, Hero calls 3,054

                                                River: (13,379) 9 (2 players)
                                                Hero checks, MP1 checks

                                                Results: 13,379 pot
                                                Final Board: 4 5 9 4 9
                                                Hero showed J J and lost (-6,212 net)
                                                MP1 showed A A and won 13,379 (7,167 net)


                                                Multitabling player instabets turn, didnīt feel good at all calling with jacks. Contemplated shoving the river as a bluff, but I would rep so thin range...
                                                TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                Old 10-05-2018, 11:20 AM   #19
                                                GrimIsCool
                                                veteran
                                                 
                                                GrimIsCool's Avatar
                                                 
                                                Join Date: Jan 2009
                                                Location: London, UK @Grimiscool
                                                Posts: 3,344
                                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                Can't see SF-ARI going O41 with 2 backup QBs and both teams not having awful Ds.

                                                LAC-OAK O53.5 could be a bit risky too if Chargers get out to an early lead. LA D could easily shut Carr down.
                                                GrimIsCool is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                Old 10-05-2018, 06:13 PM   #20
                                                TheEducatedGuesser
                                                centurion
                                                 
                                                TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                 
                                                Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                Posts: 114
                                                Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                Quote:
                                                Originally Posted by GrimIsCool View Post
                                                Can't see SF-ARI going O41 with 2 backup QBs and both teams not having awful Ds.

                                                LAC-OAK O53.5 could be a bit risky too if Chargers get out to an early lead. LA D could easily shut Carr down.
                                                SF-ARI: Agree on those QBīs, although Beathard looked decent last week.

                                                LAC-OAK: Chargersī defense has allowed 30 points/game including Buffalo and 49īers without Garoppolo. Line is high, but I trust this match to be a shootout.

                                                ------------

                                                  IPoker, $4.55 Buy-in (6,000/12,000 blinds, 960 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
                                                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                  SB: 307,820 (25.7 bb)
                                                  BB: 208,912 (17.4 bb)
                                                  Hero (UTG): 750,114 (62.5 bb)
                                                  MP: 285,758 (23.8 bb)
                                                  CO: 118,412 (9.9 bb)
                                                  BTN: 295,787 (24.6 bb)

                                                  Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4 J
                                                  Hero raises to 24,331, 4 folds, BB calls 12,331

                                                  Flop: (60,422) 8 8 T (2 players)
                                                  BB checks, Hero bets 15,674, BB calls 15,674

                                                  Turn: (91,770) 5 (2 players)
                                                  BB checks, Hero bets 43,214, BB calls 43,214

                                                  River: (178,198) J (2 players)
                                                  BB checks, Hero checks

                                                  Results: 178,198 pot
                                                  Final Board: 8 8 T 5 J
                                                  BB showed T T and won 178,198 (94,019 net)
                                                  Hero mucked 4 J and lost (-84,179 net)


                                                  Ipoker networksī endgames are supernitty compared to any other I have played. This hand is a good example, BB doesnīt shove even TT with 17 bb in F2T. I risk 24K to win 23K, and I estimate that I will get my raise through something like 55-70% of the time. It is crazy, but 100% RFI may be correct play here.
                                                  TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                  Old 10-07-2018, 08:18 AM   #21
                                                  TheEducatedGuesser
                                                  centurion
                                                   
                                                  TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                   
                                                  Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                  Posts: 114
                                                  Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                  These will be likely my final bets for W5:



                                                    Party, $20 Buy-in (3,300/6,600 blinds, 745 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
                                                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                    SB: 343,580 (52.1 bb)
                                                    Hero (BB): 206,288 (31.3 bb)
                                                    MP: 56,769 (8.6 bb)
                                                    CO: 439,911 (66.7 bb)
                                                    BTN: 390,129 (59.1 bb)

                                                    Preflop: Hero is BB with Q 9
                                                    2 folds, BTN raises to 13,860, SB folds, Hero calls 7,260

                                                    Flop: (34,745) 7 T 5 (2 players)
                                                    Hero bets 11,465, BTN calls 11,465

                                                    Turn: (57,675) J (2 players)
                                                    Hero bets 34,605, BTN calls 34,605

                                                    River: (126,885) 8 (2 players)
                                                    Hero bets 41,872, BTN folds
                                                    Results: 126,885 pot
                                                    Final Board: 7 T 5 J 8
                                                    Hero mucked Q 9 and won 126,885 (66,210 net)
                                                    BTN mucked and lost (-60,675 net)


                                                    With two very wide ranges and wet flop, leading on the flop shouldnīt be such a big thing, I think. However, we have some nice equity-adding turns and I didnīt like x-raising this hand with 30bb against villainsī possibly big cbet sizing. On the river, shove is better than 33%, since he will be calling it with all the 9īs, but possibly is not raising with them against my block bet.

                                                      Party, $100 Buy-in (1,000/2,000 blinds, 280 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
                                                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                      SB: 47,600 (23.8 bb)
                                                      BB: 144,036 (72 bb)
                                                      MP1: 128,044 (64 bb)
                                                      MP2: 92,890 (46.4 bb)
                                                      MP3: 354,934 (177.5 bb)
                                                      Hero (CO): 183,261 (91.6 bb)
                                                      BTN: 35,208 (17.6 bb)

                                                      Preflop: Hero is CO with 4 K
                                                      3 folds, Hero raises to 4,200, 2 folds, BB calls 2,200

                                                      Flop: (11,360) 7 K 3 (2 players)
                                                      BB checks, Hero checks

                                                      Turn: (11,360) 2 (2 players)
                                                      BB bets 8,520, Hero calls 8,520

                                                      River: (28,400) Q (2 players)
                                                      BB bets 28,400, Hero calls 28,400

                                                      Results: 85,200 pot
                                                      Final Board: 7 K 3 2 Q
                                                      BB showed 9 T and lost (-41,400 net)
                                                      Hero showed 4 K and won 85,200 (43,800 net)


                                                      This is from a PKO MTT. When covering all the stacks behind I guess I can widen my opening range? I feel good x:ing the flop compared to random 10$ MTT where ppl wouldnīt bluff so much. Really like playing these higher buy-in tourneys where you have to think a bit more about your perceived ranges etc. and not just blindly hit the 25% flop, 40% turn.
                                                      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                      Old 10-09-2018, 08:56 AM   #22
                                                      TheEducatedGuesser
                                                      centurion
                                                       
                                                      TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                       
                                                      Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                      Posts: 114
                                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                      Week 5 results: 4/8

                                                      Quote:
                                                      Originally Posted by GrimIsCool View Post
                                                      Can't see SF-ARI going O41 with 2 backup QBs and both teams not having awful Ds.

                                                      LAC-OAK O53.5 could be a bit risky too if Chargers get out to an early lead. LA D could easily shut Carr down.
                                                      These games went just like you described, OAKīs offense was like a eunuch in an orgy... With some luck got the SF-ARI right though.

                                                      Some early W6 bets:

                                                      NYG-PHI U 45 1,91 @William Hill

                                                      PHIīs Ajay got hurt, has some impact on the offense. Still not convinced on NYGīs offense either.

                                                      DAL-JAX 1st half U 20,5 1,826 @Pinnacle

                                                      Last week Jacksonville looked like the old JAX with Bortles making points on garbage time after going nowhere on 1st half.

                                                      GB-SF U 46,5 1,952 @Pinnacle

                                                      Last week SF run 92 offensive plays and got only 18 points. This looks something like 31-14 game.
                                                      TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                      Old 10-09-2018, 05:38 PM   #23
                                                      The Hashman
                                                      grinder
                                                       
                                                      The Hashman's Avatar
                                                       
                                                      Join Date: Jul 2012
                                                      Posts: 547
                                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                      TEG, did you ever consider making fewer plays? Just laying the top three-five you have every week? I find I do better if I limit myself to fewer plays. Just hammer the ones that I have supreme confidence in. Kind of like poker. Look for the spots where you think you have huge +EV; hammer them hard. Try to get out of the spots where you have limited value. Just food for thought.
                                                      The Hashman is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                      Old 10-09-2018, 08:10 PM   #24
                                                      TheEducatedGuesser
                                                      centurion
                                                       
                                                      TheEducatedGuesser's Avatar
                                                       
                                                      Join Date: Aug 2018
                                                      Posts: 114
                                                      Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                      Quote:
                                                      Originally Posted by The Hashman View Post
                                                      TEG, did you ever consider making fewer plays? Just laying the top three-five you have every week? I find I do better if I limit myself to fewer plays. Just hammer the ones that I have supreme confidence in. Kind of like poker. Look for the spots where you think you have huge +EV; hammer them hard. Try to get out of the spots where you have limited value. Just food for thought.
                                                      Yeah, this has been on my mind for a while now. When I study each weeksī bets I tend to go some kind of "shopping spree" and next thing I know, there are like 10+ bets made and the end result is most of the time +/-0. Stopping early betting and making the bets on saturday/sunday might be the right move. Definitely something I am going to do.

                                                      ----------------------------

                                                      Won today one tournament for few hundred euros, made 109$ ticket from satellite and got fourth in one:

                                                        Pacific, $8 Buy-in (22,500/45,000 blinds, 5,625 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
                                                        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                                                        Hero (SB): 769,612 (17.1 bb)
                                                        BB: 1,502,314 (33.4 bb)
                                                        CO: 1,379,404 (30.7 bb)
                                                        BTN: 997,094 (22.2 bb)

                                                        Preflop: Hero is SB with K A
                                                        2 folds, Hero completes, BB raises to 1,496,689 and is all-in, Hero calls 718,987 and is all-in

                                                        Flop: (1,550,474) 9 T Q (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                        Turn: (1,550,474) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
                                                        River: (1,550,474) 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

                                                        Results: 1,550,474 pot
                                                        Final Board: 9 T Q 6 8
                                                        Hero showed K A and lost (-769,612 net)
                                                        BB showed 3 J and won 1,550,474 (780,862 net)


                                                        I was thinking is it ICM-wise a bad play to induce Big Blind to do something stupid here when holding AK? Since I was the smallest stack I chose to induce. If I was middle stack and there were significantly smaller stacks in play, then I definitely want to shove....
                                                        TheEducatedGuesser is offline   Reply With Quote
                                                        Old 10-10-2018, 04:57 AM   #25
                                                        GrimIsCool
                                                        veteran
                                                         
                                                        GrimIsCool's Avatar
                                                         
                                                        Join Date: Jan 2009
                                                        Location: London, UK @Grimiscool
                                                        Posts: 3,344
                                                        Re: The Educated Guesser (MTTīs & NFL betting)

                                                        Quote:
                                                        Originally Posted by TheEducatedGuesser View Post
                                                        These games went just like you described, OAKīs offense was like a eunuch in an orgy... With some luck got the SF-ARI right though.
                                                        I want to like Derek Carr, I really do, but sometimes he's a real **** show.

                                                        Quote:
                                                        Originally Posted by TheEducatedGuesser View Post
                                                        I was thinking is it ICM-wise a bad play to induce Big Blind to do something stupid here when holding AK? Since I was the smallest stack I chose to induce. If I was middle stack and there were significantly smaller stacks in play, then I definitely want to shove....
                                                        As the short stack, and quite a bit behind 1st & 2nd, there isn't much of an ICM consideration at play. Do what you can to get the money in whilst ahead.
                                                        GrimIsCool is offline   Reply With Quote

                                                        Reply
                                                              

                                                        Thread Tools
                                                        Display Modes

                                                        Posting Rules
                                                        You may not post new threads
                                                        You may not post replies
                                                        You may not post attachments
                                                        You may not edit your posts

                                                        BB code is On
                                                        Smilies are On
                                                        [IMG] code is On
                                                        HTML code is Off


                                                        Forum Jump


                                                        All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:41 AM.


                                                        Powered by vBulletin®
                                                        Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
                                                        Copyright Đ 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
                                                         
                                                         
                                                        Poker Players - Streaming Live Online