The Guesser:

-Early 30´s
-Several years of poker background
-Playing for side income
-Having curiosity built in nature

The Games:

-MTT´s starting at 15$ abi
-Betting in NFL, mostly spread bets and totals
-Stock market investments

The Education:

-Sims (PIO, ProPokerTools, Equilab, pen and paper)
-Videos (RIO,RYE, selected streams)
-NFL stats, betting forums, Warren Sharp´s material



I have been playing poker as a side income for few years now. 90% of my games are MTT´s from 5$ to 33$. I have built my roll to little over 10k at a time and then "resetted" it back to 5k and repeated the process. Reset was not due to tilt or anything like that, I just wanted to move the money to stocks and spending.

Most recent reset was done in the beginning of August, back to the familiar 5000€. But this time I will be not resetting my roll. First time in years I don´t have a high-rake girlfriend and my expenses have dropped significantly, so I can afford to build my roll for bigger games. Right now I am sitting with little over 6400€, so I will be taking it from there.

As for the NFL betting, this will be my second season doing that. First year I made little profit, mostly due to the correct guess of Jacksonville making finally a leap to playoffs.

This year I am with Baltimore and New Orleans alongside with high-variance early season bets on Indianapolis (Gonna need good Luck with this one, I guess).

Played a laid back session with avg 6 tables open. Not a very good session, got sucked out few times in critical times.



Not in love after the the flop raise, but AQ/AJ could do that same play. No idea why he didn´t want to take all my chips, but hell I´ll take free 20BB any day.

Made also some early NFL bets for the first week. I got ATL +4 @2,05. Now the line has dropped to +3 and 1,90sh, so pretty happy with that. I believe Atlanta will be tough this year.

DEN-SEA total o42 @ 1,97
+ Both teams´s average O/U last season was around 44
+ DEN has a decent QB now, making it more probable to get higher points
+ Game is played in Denver, where the air is thinner and encourages to try more long field goals

LAR-OAK total u 49,5
+ last season avg lines around 46
+ OAK might want to establish run game early, potentially making the game more of a defensive war, thus the clock is going to run also
- OAK def is horrible

In the stock market, my single biggest holding received an offer to buy all their stocks for 14% premium. So that was a nice score.

Had two absolutely horrible sessions and dropped 800€ to them. Finished month with 5600€.



I had a read on this guy that he goes out of control if pre aggressor checked. He didn´t disappoint me.

Next game time will be on sunday and I will be taking a shot to 109$ PLO WCOOP.

Managed to get to final 5% in the 109$ PLO WCOOP. In the end didn´t hit anything and ended up flipping last 5 bb in 60/40 hand.



I felt like this was an easy laydown on the river with the A of diamonds. Maybe could have bet a little more on the turn, but he didn´t still get the straight odds with a set.



This was versus the same player as in the hand above. Decided to raise this smaller amount to rep JJ blockers but it was actually villain with the blocker bluff

I have started incorporating some major donkbetting to my game. I have an assumption that people don´t play very well against these leads. It allows me to take control of the pot on flops that are more favorable to my range. Same logic applies when turn is a favorable card.



According to my studies, Villain should be raising this donk with hands like KJdd etc which I don´t think will happen very much. Villains´s particular hand, AJcc should be folding always on the turn.



Same thing here, V should be raising my 33% donk bet relatively often. I have very many potential barreling spots on turn with all those backdoor draws, and I want to be the one who chooses the price on the flop.



With Ad I decided to lead and try to just get the pot immediately. Being this deep is IMO very good thing when turn is a 5, it will allow to make huge overbets on the river and therefore is a powerful tool to make V´s life hell.

Had pretty nice session. I won one tourney for 650$, got loads of mincashes and survived to second day in 22$ 4-max NLHE WCOOP.






I think this is good hand to 4bet bluff pre. Postflop I guess there is nothing more to do than get it in on this drawy board.



I lost my first buy-in in this hand. WCOOP

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Added two more bets for week 1 in NFL:

BUF-BAL total o 42
MIN-SF total u 46

Lost ATL +4 mostly due to ****ed up extra point by Atlanta. Their offensive line also didn´t really convince, although PHI def was also very good.

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Donking continues:



With SB range this board should allow high donking %. On the turn made mistake, because I should keep his bluffs in and just call the turn. On the other hand people don´t usually follow their lines he might just given up when I called.



Didn´t know whether I should be using this combo as a three barrel bluff or make it a bluffcatcher... Feels like I played this poorly.

Nice start for the NFL, got right 9/12 bets on week 1. There were very juicy special player bets on Betfair and gladly spotted those just before game time.

Today going to play some WCOOP and Powerfest and tomorrow it is time to take first look on week 2.

Took a shot at 109$ PKO on Stars and Party, and also 55$ 4max PKO PLO and 55$ NLHE on Stars. All busted, so time to reduce the avg. buy-in.



There were bunch of aggromonkeys after me, so I think limping is fine here. This was the best chance to make some money, but it is Winamax after all, cant win anything there. Going to withdraw all my rolls from there and never play again. -4300€ in 1,5 years is just too much.

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First NFL bet of week 2: PIT-KC u 52,5 Both teams´s avg line last season was around 44-46.

More NFL week 2 bets:

14.9. CIN-BAL total under 45 @1,95
Last season both teams had avg line at 40. Not very explosive offences or dynamic QB´s.

16.9. WAS-IND IND+6 @1,917
Before season line was at +3. Now that Luck looks to be in shape, my money money goes on Colts.

16.9. TAM-PHI Total u44 @1,934
Philly has very good def, but Foles looks rusty. I doubt Fitzpatrick has similar stroke this week like last sunday.

16.9. ATL-CAR ATL-5,5 @1,925
Atlanta was ATS (Against the spread) 5-3 at home least year. They lost on week 1, so motivation should be 100%. CAR lost TE Olsen and Tackle Williams in last game.

17.9. CHI-SEA CHI-3 @1,862
Chicago looks competitive team, QB Trubisky has made progress, LB Mack has week more experience with new team and SEA is just struggling so much at the moment.

Last session felt good, although money wise it ended only in small loss.



Decided to just play my remaining Winamax money instead of withdrawing. Got 15€ left, then bye bye Losamax! One of the good cards on the turn and mandatory second barrel.



Very nice flop for my range. On the river I am targeting 9x and worse Jx for value.



With gutshot and flush blocker targeting Ax and Qx floats with this big betsize.

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Ordered Yuval Noah Harari´s latest book "21 lessons for the 21st century". Like his earlier books, this one seems to be very interesting and thought provoking as well. Easily one of the most influential writers on personal level for me this decade.

Week 2 was the opposite of first week, only 5/14 bets right.

One bet already made for W3, MIN-BUF BUF+17 @ 1,869. That is a big handicap and I trust BUF to be professional team and be better than in their first 1,5 games.

No poker in at least few days, really feel like not interested one bit playing at the moment.

Traded 1/3 of that BUF +17 away, because McCoy has problems with ribs and it seems that the line should be more like +21 with all the injuries.

Some more W3 bets:

ATL-NO NO+3

New Orleans should get more room to run this week and eventually get their offence more balanced.

ATL-NO, Tevin Coleman over 67,5 rushing yards

ATL lost Devonta Freeman and Coleman is the man in this game. NO´s rush defence is mediocre at best.

HOU-NYG HOU-6

Giants can´t move the ball and I believe Watson gets his things together in this home game.

BAL-DEN Collins u 59,5 rushing yards

BAL has two running backs splitting touches pretty evenly. They also pass a lot to running backs, therefore not so many rushing yards expected. Denver also has above average rush def.

LAC-LAR LAR-7

LAC doesn´t practically have home field advantage here. Rams are the best team in the league right now.

PHI-IND u47

Luck keeps firing short throws and PHI has many injuries in the offensive side. Wentz can also be rusty, starting his first game of the season.

TAM-PIT PIT-1

Last chance for Steelers to come back to contention this season. Still not buying Fitzmagic, although I like his style very much. If he destroys this game also, I will be in the Buccaneer bandwagon.

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Took a look at HEM2 stats and noticed a positive change in couple of stats:



If I am correct, these stats mean how many times you win pots postflop when seen flop. Usually my numbers have been 43-45 and 0,95-0,98. I have started playing less tables and fighting pots more and those stats have gone up. Also, my EV/BB have risen from ~7 to ~13, but I have only 16k hands this month in. Not sure if this correlates with the recent donking strategy I have been deploying recently. Start seems good though.

Week 3 guesses: 7/13 right.

Early W4 selections:

LAC-SF U 47

Garoppolo´s season ended, so I think 49er´s game will be without long throws. Chargers have good offence, but both teams were avg. under 47 last season.

NYG-NO NO-3,5

Brees is on fire and should be dominating against Giants. Only concern is the awful D of the Saints.

ATL-CIN O 51,5

Atlanta is such an attack machine right now. If CIN has A.J. Green for the whole game, this feels like a good bet.

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Stars.eu and .es had nice Spin&Go promo, won almost every game and pocketed pure 160€ profit from it. Gonna play full session tomorrow. First time in many weeks have an actual itch to play.

I like your totals, but your side says NO NO. Literally.

What, you don´t trust NO´s ironclad Def??

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Last poker session of this month ended well, bankroll sits at 6768€ right now. Have been really confident with my game lately, trusting my instincts etc.

#1



Decided to go three streets, villain seemed capable of folding. He has a lot of pair+FD type of hands of the flop and turn. Using 25% sizing and not getting raised means usually green light for barreling.

#2



This was on FT, wtf is that reshove w/ 62o? Some fced up logic going on here.

#3



Donking FTW. Villain was raising 20% utg, sample size 350 hands. I think it is wide enough so I can lead these flops. This is the GTO leading frequency PIO suggests:



V should be raising our donk over 14% and floating with hands like 89 of clubs which I just don´t see happening. I put V to fold the flop with hands like KQo,KJo, which should be part of 20% RFI:



#4



I guess standard??? Felt a bit stupid calling turn when V should be checking a ton on that board with these ranges.

#5



Flipped basically a coin whether to bluff the river or not. Very easy to end up bluffing too much with such action turn.

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Some more NFL bets:

IND-HOU U47

Luck was taken out for last hail mary attempt in the end of last game. Strong indicator that short throwing is going to continue. Really interesting to see how Houston is going to organise their defense here.

IND-HOU IND moneyline

Colts´ defense has looked surprisingly good. Facing 0-3 HOU at home stadium seems like a good matchup.

PIT-BAL U51

Really looking forward to this game since I have BAL to win division. BAL´s LB C.J. Mosley is coming back and I trust Flacco for not destroying this PIT defense.

Week 4 Recap:

7/13 successful bets. Worst bet this week was NYJ +7, which wasn´t even close.

Early W5:



Season this far has been slightly profitable, I am up 4,5 units.

Some pre-season bets that I made:

BAL to get to playoffs @2,5, win division @5,5, win conference @23 and win SB @51.

NO to win conference @12, to win SB @19.

IND to win division @7 and to get playoffs @4,33. This bet doesn´t look good after last sunday. Their head coach is quite a gambler, kinda like that attitude.

More W5 bets:



#1



A spot where IP´s betsize should be around 20-50% of the pot. I like betting here a lot since I have a feeling ppl´s x ranges are imbalanced in these spots.

#2



I felt I can bet with large sizings due to my tight and nutty UTG range. 33% turn bet would probably be better here.

#3



Multitabling player instabets turn, didn´t feel good at all calling with jacks. Contemplated shoving the river as a bluff, but I would rep so thin range...

Can't see SF-ARI going O41 with 2 backup QBs and both teams not having awful Ds.

LAC-OAK O53.5 could be a bit risky too if Chargers get out to an early lead. LA D could easily shut Carr down.

SF-ARI: Agree on those QB´s, although Beathard looked decent last week.

LAC-OAK: Chargers´ defense has allowed 30 points/game including Buffalo and 49´ers without Garoppolo. Line is high, but I trust this match to be a shootout.

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Ipoker networks´ endgames are supernitty compared to any other I have played. This hand is a good example, BB doesn´t shove even TT with 17 bb in F2T. I risk 24K to win 23K, and I estimate that I will get my raise through something like 55-70% of the time. It is crazy, but 100% RFI may be correct play here.

These will be likely my final bets for W5:





With two very wide ranges and wet flop, leading on the flop shouldn´t be such a big thing, I think. However, we have some nice equity-adding turns and I didn´t like x-raising this hand with 30bb against villains´ possibly big cbet sizing. On the river, shove is better than 33%, since he will be calling it with all the 9´s, but possibly is not raising with them against my block bet.



This is from a PKO MTT. When covering all the stacks behind I guess I can widen my opening range? I feel good x:ing the flop compared to random 10$ MTT where ppl wouldn´t bluff so much. Really like playing these higher buy-in tourneys where you have to think a bit more about your perceived ranges etc. and not just blindly hit the 25% flop, 40% turn.

Week 5 results: 4/8

These games went just like you described, OAK´s offense was like a eunuch in an orgy... With some luck got the SF-ARI right though.

Some early W6 bets:

NYG-PHI U 45 1,91 @William Hill

PHI´s Ajay got hurt, has some impact on the offense. Still not convinced on NYG´s offense either.

DAL-JAX 1st half U 20,5 1,826 @Pinnacle

Last week Jacksonville looked like the old JAX with Bortles making points on garbage time after going nowhere on 1st half.

GB-SF U 46,5 1,952 @Pinnacle

Last week SF run 92 offensive plays and got only 18 points. This looks something like 31-14 game.

TEG, did you ever consider making fewer plays? Just laying the top three-five you have every week? I find I do better if I limit myself to fewer plays. Just hammer the ones that I have supreme confidence in. Kind of like poker. Look for the spots where you think you have huge +EV; hammer them hard. Try to get out of the spots where you have limited value. Just food for thought.

Yeah, this has been on my mind for a while now. When I study each weeks´ bets I tend to go some kind of "shopping spree" and next thing I know, there are like 10+ bets made and the end result is most of the time +/-0. Stopping early betting and making the bets on saturday/sunday might be the right move. Definitely something I am going to do.

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Won today one tournament for few hundred euros, made 109$ ticket from satellite and got fourth in one:



I was thinking is it ICM-wise a bad play to induce Big Blind to do something stupid here when holding AK? Since I was the smallest stack I chose to induce. If I was middle stack and there were significantly smaller stacks in play, then I definitely want to shove....

I want to like Derek Carr, I really do, but sometimes he's a real **** show.

As the short stack, and quite a bit behind 1st & 2nd, there isn't much of an ICM consideration at play. Do what you can to get the money in whilst ahead.