Yep, I thought that this could be almost pure Chip EV situation due to stack distribution.

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Haven´t yet made any additional bets for NFL W6, but I am considering these:

NE -3,5
PIT +1 and over 51,5
SEA -2,5
ATL -3

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Had deep run in Big 11$ the other night but busted in this hand F2T:



Good check from the original raiser, rest of it pretty standard imo.

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This was maybe the most interesting/exciting hand from that tourney:



So much money in the pot that I couldn´t resist to squeeze. V actually showed his/her hand when mucking, AKdd... I guess being aggressive does pay dividend.

Lost NYG-PHI U 45, final score was 47. When Eli threw interception after just 45 seconds, I thought "here we go..."

Week 6 pics:



Did not bet the CIN-PIT total, since possibility of rain is over 50%. Too much uncertainty.

Oakland-Seattle will be played in London, so there is no home field advantage.

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Villain in this hand has been very active, I thought V is going to call turn with lots of A-highs thus making triple barreling profitable play. Q is pretty nice side card to do this with, not blocking TJ,T7 and heart draws.

Got 2/6 bets right on Week 6. SF´s Beathard looked like Super Bowl MVP, NE was lost by 0,5 points and Jacksonville´s supposedly leagues´ best defense was pile of turd.

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I studied this hand after session and can´t get more than around 12% equity on the river. Villain´s call on the turn looks ultranutty and I block worse flushes with my 8h.

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This flop x-r is too much with all the 89o combos. Should be limiting these to 89s with BDFD.

Some W7 bets:



Eli, please put 20+ points on the board, ok?

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Meanwhile in poker side of things, having really bad end game runs at the moment. Got one to the end though:






Don´t know how else I could play this hand. Maybe betting the river myself would be better, because in general people are not valuebetting so thinly?

One more bet, W7:

CHI-NE O 48,5 1,952 @Pinnacle

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PIO doesn´t like my x-raise with this hand, not even by removing some A- and K-highs from his calling range on the flop. I have hands like 74s that I do this with so J6s is going to bloat my bluff range out of proportion. Better to keep raising hands with initial nut potential!

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This was 2 from the money (9/7) and villain was running the table over. I took a calculated risk here since I figured V is shoving near 70% of hands here and versus that I get 56% with my A7. If V is not shoving his strongest hands TT+, AQ+, I will get 58% equity. ICM-wise this is a bad call.

Not very good week in NFL betting, only 3/8 right. I think I was temporarily mentally unstable to pic also JAX -3,5 within the last hours before gametime. Don´t really like that team this season with these prices bookmakers are giving them. Too weak attack leads to a situation where their defenders are being exhausted, playing too much.

Also lost my game in my fantasy league by 0,2(!) points, leading to a 4-3 situation.

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Stock are going down, I haven´t made any purchases. I have been eyeing some banking firms, and might push the "buy" button next week. Currently my cash/stock position is around 65/35, so really eager to see stock market coming to lower prices.

Marked a lot of hands from yesterday´s session, here are few:

#1



Final 2 tables. This is too loose with normal ranges. I got this as my 3! shove range:



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#2



Always feels ugly to 4bshove vs nits, but even if he doesn´t have any bluff 3bets, this is a winning shove.

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#3



I fold 0% against sb practical minraises, therefore I have all 3x, 67 etc nutcombos in my range. I think I can fold my weakest pairs.

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#4



Wow, both hands are literally on the very edge of ranges here. Against nash shove he can call with T8s.

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#5



This was on the bubble, BB should be shoving very narrow range, so made very tight fold here.

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#6



Against a nit. I should be pulling the trigger on the river with that sweet 6 I have...

Made a bet for the game tonight:

Deshaun Watson over 260,5 passing yards, 2,00 @Betfair

Watson seems to be getting better when the season progresses. I just hope Miami doesn´t fall too much behind so Houston has to keep throwing.

I also have a prop bet on Watson tonight. I only hope that he doesn't take a big hit and get knocked out of the game with that injury he has. Watson has been sacked more than anyone else in the league, and Bill O'Brien is fine with letting him get murdered if it means he can get another win and hang on to his job a little longer. I'm really tempted to play the over on the sacks prop tonight with Watt and Clowney in the mix combined with Watson routinely getting murdered behind that sieve of a line that Houston has. In fact, I just talked myself into it.

Wow, Watson wasn´t sacked even once in that game. He was leading that stat before last night´s game. Threw 5 TD´s with only 239 yards, so I can add another loss to my betting stats...

Anyway, two more W7 bets:

LAR-GB O 56,5 1,97 @Pinnacle
OAK-IND IND -3 1,917 @Pinnacle

Not sure if adding anymore, feeling kinda unconfident right now when it comes to picking right ones...

Would be surprised if that messed up offence gets close to IND. Reckon Luck puts up 2-3 TDs early then the game shuts down.

Yep, Oakland looks right now like a rotting corpse with those few alive pieces getting picked to another teams.

Made one side player bet to that same game:

Eric Ebron under 50,5 receiving yards, 1,87 @Unibet

This same bet is 41,5 1,862 at Pinnacle. Fellow tight end Jack Doyle is playing in this game and should be taking away some targets from Ebron.

Had last poker session of the month, not really focused and decided to stop early. Bankroll kept growing this month, sits now at 7588€.

Final W8 bets:

KC-DEN KC -8,5
PIT-CLE O 48

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Anatomy of small stakes MTT´s: Part one

If villains´ line is mindonk-mindonk-mindonk, raise the river w/ anytwo. 98% of the time just some fourth pair clicking buttons.

W8 results: 4/7, always good to have a winning week.

Regular season in NFL is now halfway through, my result at the moment is -3,5 units for the season. My biggest season bet is Baltimore to playoffs @2,5. Also smaller season bets to Saquon Barkley to be offensive rookie of the year @3,5, Ezekiel Elliott most reg. season rushing yards @5. These bets are pretty alive still.

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Gonna spend few hours in the poker lab, cooking maybe some new stuff, going through Nash shove spots etc.

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Bought one semi-big european bank´s stocks for little over 2k€, lets´s see if it bounces back maybe 10% in next couple of months and sell it. If not, going to keep it for a while then.

Had somewhat eye-opening hand review:



I knew I should be able to donk that specific turn with my range ( I defend every suited hand vs minraise from CO), but the total frequency surprised:



100% donkbet with sizing of 50% of the pot.

I studied both ranges on the turn:

My range



CO´s range



(Preflop ranges: CO opening ~30%, me defending 55%, shoving/ raising every pocket pair preflop except slowplaying AA 30% of the time)

I have so much more 7x hands that this turn seems to be a mandatory lead. On the flop we both have pretty similar amount of trips and after CO´s 35% cbet he still has majority of his preflop range with him. I have preflop - 50% so my range is much more condensed on the turn---> put that equity advantage to work and lead the turn!

W9 first bets:



Rams and Gurley are facing number 1 def when measuring rush yards/game. I suspect them to use Gurley more in passing plays. This same bet is 90,5 for 1,684 @Pinnacle.

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Final table of 5€ rebuy. This is profitable shove with heavy ICM in play. In fact, that should be the only move with this hand. However, chipleader was getting completely out of line and tournament was quite top heavy. Thought that V would reshove a lot of hands which are going to be dominated against AJ.

once you have money, everything else will fall into place.

One more bet W9: MIN-DET MIN -4,5 2,01 @Pinnacle

Was planning to go through some hands before NFL, but feeling super exhausted after working the whole weekend in my dayjob. Just beer and games then.

Is this from some chinese fortune cookie?

Good week in NFL, 4/4 right. Not going to bet the MNF.

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This flop is very good for SB cold call range. I will be shoving every pocket pair from 99 below, so my range interacts well with KQ2. With the backdoor flush draw leading would be an option for some amount of the time. When V checks back the flop, betting turn with large sizing with this hand feels natural.

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This is very bad fold. For some reason imagined CO´s flat range full of traps when flatting with two <20bb stacks behind. In reality slow played big pockets are just so small portion of range that consists mainly of different broadway cards.

Nice job on the NFL sweep this week!

Interesting read

Thanks! Focusing on fewer=most profitable bets seem to be paying off.

Thanks mate!

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Got burnt a few times in last session. After reviewing the hands, I still wouldn´t do anything differently:



Just after bubble. CO was opening very wide, and making A5s reshove way too profitable spot to be skipped.

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This is of course thinner, but MP was opening nearly 40% and folding 70% to 3bets.

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Again, BTN opening way too many hands. Could flat this hand too, but being offsuited makes me think this is the easier way to get the EV.

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On the bubble.

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Looks super strong when SB 3bets small OOP with 20BB stack. I should probably be folding even QQ in this spot.

Two bets in for W10:



Also waiting for player bets to emerge, I have one bet in mind, Robby Anderson over the line in catching yards. QB Darnold is supposed to be out for the game and backup McCown´s go-to guy last season was Anderson.

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Somehow keep running like crap in Winamax even though I don´t even play there anymore. They have this promotion "1 of 5 deposits win things". I deposited ten separate times, not winning anything. 10% change of that happening if it truly is randomized.



But because I am a man of fairness, I will give better changes of me cancelling my withdrawal than me winning in that deposit bonus campaign. I will give 1% change that I will press the cancel-button. 1>0, right?

Couple of player bets for W10:

IND-JAX JAX Keelan Cole U 3,5 receptions 1,66 @Betfair

Ahead of Cole in snap counts are WRs Westbrook, Moncrief and Chark. Cole has also fumbled the ball too many times in recent history.

IND-JAX IND Marlon Mack O 61,5 rush yards 1,90 @Betfair

Jacksonville´s rush defense hasn´t been very good. Indy´s offense has looked more balanced in recent games, although two last opponents have been two of the worst teams in league.

One final bet W10:

OAK-LAC LAC -9,5 1,96 @Unibet

Chargers have a dynamic offense and Raiders are just tanking at this point.

Also made one more season bet: Philadelphia to win SB, half of the bet goes to PHI reaching final; 26 @William Hill.

Right now Philly has very good chance to get division first place and get their playoff spot.