Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagoJoey
looks like you are missing the best option on the last hand you posted
I think your ranges are probably a bit off as well for what they will c/r all in with as I think 1100 eff stack ends up c/c some of the range to 2-300 size
I like the way you breakdown your game and your work with ranges, most players live and even more than you would think online aren't really spending too much time doing it.
The first hand you posted you don't post stack sizes so not sure how deep it is or what sizing you choose on the turn. Your idea for why you want to raise the flop with your hand makes sense (fish stack sizes and tendencies to show up with like a bare naked nfd or some sort of QAxxfd type hand matters alot tho) and I think in spots like this you don't really have much of an idea for those ranges against those players (lollive) and I wouldn't ever expect flop bettor to 3bet as a bluff being so deep like you said and when he does you can fold pretty easy. I think your hand just plays too well in position on enough turns and also some turns you can decide to bluff when checked to that this is probably not the best hand to deicde to raise with. I think if the pot was HU and it was a situation where you wanted to have a wider flop raising range IP this would be a hand I would do it with but this isn't any type of spot where that logic even comes into play.
On the turn c/r from him is by farrrrr the best play. If he is assuming you only have value hands while he has AQnfd. Naked AQ is a big part of that range for you, sometimes with a worse FD, not sure if he thinks you would raise a lower wrap/combo draw on the flop or just call as well and he might think you bet a hand like Q567- Q467 for protection (even if you think you never would). I think the times he gets it in crushing/freerolling, making a flush on the river when behind or getting you to fold is much greater than the times he gets it in vs QQQ-444-555 and miss/loses on the river
btw I enjoyed your podcasts.
My hand histories are not well structured. I do it mostly for myself when I reflect, so sometimes I forget to put in details. Unfortunately, this makes it tough for others to analyze my hands..
I think my perceived range on the flop is pretty narrow(and very value heavy) I seem to cultivate a nitty image in live poker, mostly due to my tight preflop range full-ring and that I rarely show bluffs postflop(unless its versus huge fish or my ego gets the best of me). I would almost always fold this hand preflop, and normally play around 15-20% vpip full-ring. I think it takes a few sessions for villains to notice that my betting/raising ranges postflop are pretty wide, but villains seem to notice very quickly that I am tight preflop because I'm folding blinds 80% to button straddles, folding buttons when 4 people limp, etc. This particular villain is an iPad grinder so despite playing 20-30hours together, he probably thinks I'm more passive than I really am post-flop, and tight pre flop.
This is the first hand I've run a multi-street bluff on this villain, and I don't think he's ever seen a multi-street bluff of mine get to showdown. There is also a chance he reads this blog, in which case c/c c/c >>>> c/r.
As far as the hand goes.. if he has AcQx*c and the offsuit A comes on the turn, I have ~0 combos of AQ:cc. I would need to have a non Qc, non 5c, and non Ac in my hand, so that rules out AQ%:cc. So, I would need AQ4:cc in my raising range on the flop, which is pretty small combo wise (I would fold or raise most combos pre, and just so few combos in general given card removal).
I would need some hands like Q567/Q456/4567:cc/678:cc that I continue betting on the turn. I would never do this given villains range is so faceup as NFD+backup heavy and I suspect villains knows I know this.. but even if I did 100% of the time his equity is barrreelly good enough to get it in given the number of sets in my range;
board: Qc5c4dAh
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Q56c7c, Qc678:cc, Qc467:cc, 4678:cc, 5678:cc, 2345:cc, (QQ!QQ$ds, Ax55:xx, Ax44:xx, 5567, 5543, 4456, 4432$ds, 44RR!QQ!JJ!TT!33, 55RR!QQ!JJ!TT!66)!AA!KK 59.97% 358,577 2,430
AcQ*c 40.03% 238,993 2,430
So its really close. I think he needed ~38-39% in this spot for it to be +EV to GII vs my range. But I don't remember exact stack sizes, so its possible it was a good c/r if I was -$300 effective from what I remember. I normally try and set up a 75-85% barrel on the river and have a rough +-$75 of the pot size. So yeah, he probably needed ~38-39%. So c/r is +EV if I b/c worse draws/worse 2pairs+draws. Although, If I ever bet/fold the hands that have not enough equity to call versus AQ:cc it becomes -EV, and he has 30-35% vs my calling range.
In retrospect, its a tough spot and it really comes down to what he thinks about my range and how I play-- which we can't know. c/r is really good if he thinks I b/c worse draws and combo draws OTT. I think c/r is by far the worst option versus my actual betting range and play style on the turn [5-20% of range are 0-10% equity bluffs that are triple barrelling, and 80-95% are sets that have 65%-70% equity].