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Old 11-28-2017, 03:05 AM   #2751
tmckendry
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

So, I just finished watching "Banking on Bitcoin". Informative and good intro to bitcoin. Would recommend to people that haven't done much research into cryptocurrency and are curious about it. The main band on the soundtrack I saw twice at a music festival a couple weeks ago. Too many zooz. They are awesome.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I think blockchain, and by extension, cryptocurrency is going to be a huge part of the future. I spent a good deal of time writing about that a year ago, and I'll provide some updated thoughts relative to the new market environment.

There has been a huge run in the price lately. Forks are coming left and right. There are hoards of lemming traders entering the space. Speculations of monster prices in the future. I'm always weary of huge bull runs and to me it feels like speculation levels are approach madness; a good sign we are in bubble territory. I am continuing to sell btc and hold cash. I have a low allocation in alts and plan to use cash to buy alts once a black swan rears its head and we see a 40%+ drop in alts.

At the end of the day its a speculative market and I think people are getting carried away with their investments. People(particularly older people) holding 50%, 75%, or 90% of their assets in crytpos are making a mistake. So much of the current price is built on future expectations and so little on fundamentals. There is a huge gap to bridge with huge unknowns which offers a unique type of risk. In fact, I believe this is the definition of speculative risk. I still believe that todays major cryptos run a high probability of going near zero in 5years, and a modest probability of 5x, 10x, or even a small chance of 20x+. This makes them a huge +EV investment, but very risky.

As far as max upside goes, I think the bulk of the growth is yet to come. The global M0 money supply (cash equivalents) is around $31 trillion.. cryptos have a total market cap of ~$300B. If crypto were to effectively replace this market there would be a ~100x of today's price.
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Old 12-02-2017, 08:13 PM   #2752
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

I just ate the best watermelon of my life. 7-day water fast is completed. I was expecting the fast to be pretty easy, and it wasn't that easy. I suspected hunger cravings wouldn't effect me, and I also expected to get into ketosis around day3-4 and start feeling more energetic. I was right about the hunger-- no problem. However, I felt low energy for essentially the entire week.

Journal:

2 days pre-fast
-I have a cup of coffee around 9am.. it was fantastic.
-I take a salad of greens, beans, apple, and veggies.
-various fruits in the afternoon, and also an ice cream(this is probably horrible for future me)
-finish salad for dinner.
-1 cup of the brew.(apple cider vinegar, ginger, turmeric, garlic, lemon, black pepper)
I actually ate a worse diet than usual this day, I was full all day and felt as if I needed to eat as much as possible..

1 day pre-fast
-2x Hot cacao drink(cacao powder, cardamom powder, cinnamon-- ~40mg caffeine) instead of coffee..
-Well-cooked oats with fruits/various superfoods for breakfast
-mango and banana for lunch
-tomato/red pepper/heavily herbed soup for dinner
-1 cup of brew, added activated charcoal.
Ate pretty light today. Strangely enough I was picturing foods while resting even though I was not fasting.
Felt low energy most of the day, probably a result of sudden caffeine reduction.

Fast day 1
-Took a few hours and ~1hr of loaded walking to the new place in the morning.
-Got a small headache in the morning from caffeine withdrawal
-Felt low energy most of the day. Took 2 naps, didn't exercise or move around much.
-I would catch myself thinking of food, and immediately stop. Bodily cravings minimal

Fast day 2
-Low energy for most periods of the day
-Sometimes bursts of energy
-Attempted light yoga but only practiced 10-15minutes, body said to stop.
-meditation was easier
-<5 cravings
-Pimple I had from a few days ago spread to 5-6 pimples, near an area where I use to get cold sores as a child.
-left knee feels more fragile (has been injured in the past)
-Dreamt of eating food with friends, sleep average

Fast day3
-General feeling of lightness/floatiness
-Very low energy most of the day
-I dont recall a time in my life ive felt so weak without any signs of sickness.
-Meditation easier (for 10minutes, much harder after)
-Took some himilayan pink salt in water.
-Felt compelled to go for a walk in the evening. My body seemed certain
-left knee more fragile
-pimples worse
-Ran into some stress-inducing news, was heavily stressed mentally for a couple hours.
-First **** since the morning of day1-- Small, hard, with some unusual yellow/orange colors
-Noticed I am getting cold easily.
-Dreams average, sleep sub-par

Fast day4
-Meditation in the morning was very clear
-energy levels low
-no naps, lots of resting
-took more salt in water
-pimples better
-Noticed my tongue is cased in white
-Feeling a bit down because I researched it was pretty common to be in ketosis by day4 and feel more energetic.
-Measured resting heart rate at 55 and 51-- I think I'm normally around 75-85, so this is a pretty drastic drop.
-Dreams average, sleep average 9-10hours

Fast day5
-Woke up and took a shower.. cold/hot 10seconds 10 times, finished 2min cold shower
-Low energy levels for most of the day, still.
-No naps, but lots of resting
-Got a couple sweaty heat flashes during long conversation.
-Got really dizzy after standing up quickly.
-Spent most of the day dealing with finances and future planning.
-Felt quite motivated
-Tongue still cased in white
-Not much change in pimples.. water fasting is reported to clear skin.. this is the worst acne ive had since highschool?
-Measured resting heart rate at 54, and 53
-Interesting dream; dreamt of a spider which is fairly common for me. Woke up in my bedroom looking at the wall at a spider. This has happened to me before in false-awakenings multiple times so I waited to wake up again. Turns out I was awake and I was staring directly at a spider crawling up the wall.
In general, feeling far worse and getting far worse results than expected in this fast. Too bad.

Fast day6
-Hot/cold 10s10x, 2min cold shower
-Low energy levels in the early morning
-More energy in the late morning-afternoon. I had a long, deep conversation and then dealt with a stressful situation. I'm wondering how much of the energy level flucation has to do with stimulation. Perhaps it was unnatural and I will pay by being lower energy tmrw.
-Knee back to normal
-Got stronger and more frequent food cravings than normal. I also went out to buy watermelon/juice today so perhaps that contributed.
-Heart rate 57 and 53
-10 hours in bed but **** sleep, realized my sleeping position contributes heavily to my sleep quality.. back sleep so much +EV

Fast day7
-hot/cold 10s10x, 2min cold shower
-Cravings in the morning
-Was distracted and didnt drink enough water in the morning
-Energy levels seems a bit higher.. Unusual after a bad sleep and 7days?
-Pimples seem to be healing/clear quickly
-Heart rate 51, 49 (Also seems strange to have more energy when heart rate is 50?)
-Only slept 8 hours.

Day8 (Day1 post-fast)
-Woke up 1-2 hours earlier.
-hot/cold 10s10x, 2min cold shower
-Felt low-medium energy for the first few hours of the day. (Perhaps it took me 8 days to reach ketosis?)
-Broke fast at 8:30am. Ate 1/16th of an average size watermelon. First bites were epic.
I had planned to eat 1/8th of a watermelon, but my body told me to stop at a certain point.
-heart 49bpm 1hr after first re-feed

My re-feed agenda is watermelon all day(6 small meal). day2: watermelon(medium meal), fruit juice, more fruit, soup at night. day3: green juice morning, roasted almonds, low-carb meal. No coffee first 3 days. day4-7 I plan to eat low-carb, low-acidity in general. I'd like to start adding kimchi/kambucha/natto to get gut-flora reestablished/healthy. I may start intermittent fasting day 4 or 5.

Overall I have mixed feelings about the experience. It was certainly good for my body. Giving my digestion a rest and my body a chance to flush/repair, anti-cancer benefits (and probably some other benefits too)... I probably lost a 1kg of fat. I probably lost 3-4kg of water. Mentally, I'd estimate I was operating at 70-90% capacity, but about 50% endurance. Short-term memory was the most noticeable difference. Spiritually, it was a mild experience.

The largest downside was the lack of energy. I did ~no exercise. Walking 10minutes to the grocery store felt like a difficult task. It was necessary to stand up slowly. I also got pretty lonely-- no motivation to leave the house. Netflix saved the fast.

I would do it again, but only under certain circumstances. If I'm carrying extra fat, have access to media content/books, a comfortable location in nature, and surrounded by interesting people. They say the second water-fast you have a bit more energy, but I'd still need the requirements above.

In regards to general fasting, I'm quite interested in giving the time-restricted eating window another shot. I may start that in a few days. I figure a 9-hour eating window with 2 cheat days would be ideal.

Last edited by tmckendry; 12-02-2017 at 08:19 PM.
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Old 12-03-2017, 03:17 AM   #2753
pure_aggression
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

Thanks for sharing your experience, sounds interesting and 7 days seems super difficult. I don't think I've even gone 2 days without food.
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Old 12-05-2017, 05:37 PM   #2754
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

^ Thanks!

You have strong discipline-- I'm sure you could do it if you wanted.

---

The last few days have completely changed my perspective on the entire experience. I now think that it was well worth it, and would do it again. I've had a very, very interesting last few days.

I'll give more background on refeed strat/journal;

Day8(Break fast)

Large energy increases after just small amounts of watermelon.
Took 2 hits off bush weed and got very high.
6 small/medium portions of watermelon from 8:30 to 6:30.
Felt fantastic all day.
I either got no sleep, or never realized I was dreaming(never happened) Either way, <2hours of sleep
Felt very connected mind/body. Unsure how to describe.

Day 9(day2 post-past)

-Medium watermelon meal 2 hours after waking
-medium/large watermelon meal ~-4hours later
-medium watermelon meal 3 hours later
-Small amount of green juice. was 33% apple and I could sense the acidity, didn't take much.
-small mango a few hour later
-Felt fantastic all day.
-Lie in bed all night. Have a single dream, its my dad siting in a lounge chair eating so much ice cream he starts shaking profusely and collapses.
-1-2 hours of sleep.

Day10

-Really early have a small amount of green juice + 6 almonds
-medium amount green juice + 6 almonds
-medium amount of green juice
-Small amount of remaining green juice, + ~10 almonds
-Go to catch a 34h nightmare flight (saved that $$$ though)
-mango/blueberry/passionfruit/papaya/cooconut water smoothie + 12 almonds
-tomato juice
-small salad, more tomato juice

I feel as though I have silenced my ego and have a very strong connection with my "inner self". The connection between my mind/body is very strong. I have spent most of the sleepless nights communicating with myself in this new setting. I've spent a few hours and several pages writing about what I learned. Several visionary experiences from my time in the jungle years ago have become crystal clear. The nature in which these events have unfolded have blown my mind.

I'm not going to get too deep into it, but some fun excerpts;

"I developed a habit of over-eating in childhood. As a result, I've spent ~95% of my life in a calorie surplus. I wasn't that active as a kid, and always had some or a lot of fat on my body. I grew up eating the standard American 90s diet when I was younger-- absolute ****. Unfortunately, this means I've literally being carrying around poison in my body for my entire life. My recent fast was the first time my body got the chance to break it down. It's no wonder I felt like **** the whole time and got pimples-- My body was using toxic fat to operate."

"The ego is so damn tricky. I knew this already, but yeah just observing it is wild. It feels emotional almost. My sense of connection with myself is too strong, its in a sense of panic. It's always there, in the field of consciousness."

"I'm receiving a lesson of sorts-- although a painful lesson.. 1-~2hours of sleep in the last two nights. I also believe I will be capable of using the "W(M?)ILD" lucid dreaming technique this may even be able to lead to alternate sorts of dimensions? I have guides and helpers."

"If there is a next time I work with ayahuasca, I will have to fast before. Water fast. 7-21 days."
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Old 12-07-2017, 05:11 PM   #2755
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

I was chatting with some poker friends a few days ago. All my friends are getting out of poker. Everyone is into trading crypto or sports betting now. Poker . We were estimating how many hands we would play over the course of our lifetime. I set mine at 3000. I can't see myself playing poker unless there is a series in a city while I'm there and there is PLO cash and a couple good events. I imagine this may happen 3-4 times in my life. I'd probably average ~30hoursx25hands, or 3000 hands.
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Old 12-07-2017, 07:29 PM   #2756
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

I'm starting now at plo2 transitioning from nlhe. How hard was it to climb?
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Old 12-08-2017, 02:46 AM   #2757
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

Quote:
Originally Posted by tmckendry View Post
I was chatting with some poker friends a few days ago. All my friends are getting out of poker. Everyone is into trading crypto or sports betting now. Poker . We were estimating how many hands we would play over the course of our lifetime. I set mine at 3000. I can't see myself playing poker unless there is a series in a city while I'm there and there is PLO cash and a couple good events. I imagine this may happen 3-4 times in my life. I'd probably average ~30hoursx25hands, or 3000 hands.
I don't understand the bolded. Lots of people are throwing around trading crypto without really explaining what... is that just code for buying and holding? Or are they actually day trading cryptos like you would trade normal currencies? Weird.

I know you can trade cryptos for currencies and vice versa and charge a premium for the service in the 2-5% range but that sounds like a major, major grind of itself.
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Old 12-08-2017, 05:34 PM   #2758
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfunnywobbl View Post
I'm starting now at plo2 transitioning from nlhe. How hard was it to climb?
Eh, it was pretty easy. I imagine its harder these days. Probably really hard on stars. niche sites and US sites its probably fairly easy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by upswinging View Post
I don't understand the bolded. Lots of people are throwing around trading crypto without really explaining what... is that just code for buying and holding? Or are they actually day trading cryptos like you would trade normal currencies? Weird.

I know you can trade cryptos for currencies and vice versa and charge a premium for the service in the 2-5% range but that sounds like a major, major grind of itself.
It seems like a pretty inefficient market these days. Like, there are tons of spots to make +EV trades. It's mostly just using solid information sources and making good judgements about market movements. Having a general sense of the market psychology and how it responds seems to be able to influence trading.

I've been peaking into some of the trades and it doesn't seem to be anything super advanced. I think this type of edge is only sustainable for a limited time and the game should get tougher as the markets attract stronger traders and more data accumulates and algos get involved.
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Old 12-09-2017, 02:10 AM   #2759
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

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Originally Posted by tmckendry View Post
Eh, it was pretty easy. I imagine its harder these days. Probably really hard on stars. niche sites and US sites its probably fairly easy.



It seems like a pretty inefficient market these days. Like, there are tons of spots to make +EV trades. It's mostly just using solid information sources and making good judgements about market movements. Having a general sense of the market psychology and how it responds seems to be able to influence trading.

I've been peaking into some of the trades and it doesn't seem to be anything super advanced. I think this type of edge is only sustainable for a limited time and the game should get tougher as the markets attract stronger traders and more data accumulates and algos get involved.
I'll preface this by saying I know next to nothing about cryptos and trading... but I think cryptos in general are a huge bubble... and I agree that crypto markets are inefficient based off 1. how scammy some of the smaller coins are and 2. how stupid the average "investor" is.

However, it seems like prices are extremely volatile. It just sounds very risky/ hard to capitalize off of something like that. I sort of looked into the providing services part- bank transfers or cash deposits for a 2-5% premium, but you'd need a ton of capital and volume in order to make it work imo... and with the large price fluctuations you can get totally ****ed even if you are trying to be smart and buy/sell balanced. For example, there are some "pro traders" who are buying and selling at the same time (of course charging premiums), and it looks like some of them try to balance, like if they just bought a bunch at great premium, then they their sell offers would be lower than normal (trying to reduce their exposure).

Anyways, i think this stuff is interesting and I would appreciate it if anyone would chime in/ discuss it more. So much better than talking about boring poker hands

Last edited by upswinging; 12-09-2017 at 02:27 AM.
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Old 12-09-2017, 05:39 PM   #2760
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

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Originally Posted by upswinging View Post
but I think cryptos in general are a huge bubble...

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries you aren't the first one to think that

However, it seems like prices are extremely volatile. It just sounds very risky/ hard to capitalize off of something like that.
volatility is the reason why there is good money to be made trading. Risk and difficulty depend on many considerations, but risk/reward ratios on a lot of trades right now are uncommonly huge for any type of financial instrument or commodities trading.

It always is, but right now is a very interesting time for crypto. plenty of FUD happens on a weekly basis, but potential billions being instantly dumped into the market by institutions is going to have a substantial affect on the market/public perception/regulation/prices/alternative markets..., even if it is all just synthetic derivatives instead of actual bitcoin buys and sells.

Keeps me on my toes
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Old 12-10-2017, 12:54 PM   #2761
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Re: Crushing PLO (PLO5-->PLO200)

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Originally Posted by boliver View Post
volatility is the reason why there is good money to be made trading. Risk and difficulty depend on many considerations, but risk/reward ratios on a lot of trades right now are uncommonly huge for any type of financial instrument or commodities trading.

It always is, but right now is a very interesting time for crypto. plenty of FUD happens on a weekly basis, but potential billions being instantly dumped into the market by institutions is going to have a substantial affect on the market/public perception/regulation/prices/alternative markets..., even if it is all just synthetic derivatives instead of actual bitcoin buys and sells, but they were always prompt in paying if the price moved against me.

Keeps me on my toes
yeah totally. what you say makes sense. the grayer the area/ less common information there is, the more there is to profit- generally speaking.

maybe the reason i dont like the idea of trading cryptos is based off my own bad experiences? I've been angled HARD for relatively tiny amounts from "pro traders". For example, they've waited until the last couple minutes to pay, and if the prices moves against them they won't pay and will make up an excuse to cancel the trade.
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