Got super crushed at $1/3 PLO last night. -$976, 8 hours.
I didn't win any 100bb+ pots in 8 hours of play. Lost a ~125bb pot with QQKh3h on K Q 6h Ah Where I check/raised the flop and check/called 2/3 PSB on the turn and whiffed the river.
Made 2 bluffs, one it was 3 way 3bet pot that got checked on the flop/turn/river and I bet 1/3 on the river to got c/raised by a passive rec player.. lol. One bluff success.
I got my stack in 3 times, twice were standard wrap+NFDs vs top set. Got it in with ~40% equity twice, Chopped one, lost one.
By far the most interesting hand of the night was this;
Hero ($~550) has a nitty image. I folded to a 3bet a couple hands ago, folding my SB, generally not playing any pots.
Villain is an over aggro player thats a bit lose post-flop, not a complete drooler. Capable of thinking and making folds pre, but inflates pots pre with marginal holdings and cbets a high %. Showdown this session he has 3b QQ78ss on the btn, dry kings IP, AKQ4ds etc. Probably btn 3b% around 8-10%.
folds to hero in MP, hero raises to $12 with AsKQsQ, fish calls in HJ, btn 3bets to $35, folds to hero who calls, fish folds (lol?)
Pre action is interesting. I almost 4bet/folded to 5bet, but decided against it. Not sure whats optimal. I suspected his 3bet range was BBBBss+, AA**, any 1 gapper ss+ MMMM. I actually discounted AA** because of his ridiculous 3bet sizing.
Flop ($85)
Ks Td 4c
Hero checks, villain bets $65, hero calls.
I thought this was super standard. Can't B/f. Raising is too thin. I think he is betting with 100% of his range.
Turn ($215)
7s
Villain bets $150, hero tanks and jams to $450...
I thought this decision was super close. I think he's cbetting the turn with near 100% of his range, and I thought it was really close between jam and fold. I didn't think call was a option because we can misplay so many rivers oop vs an aggro player. I stoved the following range and got 43.5% equity;
Omaha Hi Simulation ?
1,346,400 trials (Exhaustive)
board: KsTd5c7s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AsKQsQ 43.48% 570,240 30,474
AA**, $B$B$B$B, $M$M$M$M 56.52% 745,686 30,474
In this spot its $450:$665 or 40.4% equity needed, so a shove would be correct against the above range. This also assumes he has 100% of AA** combos, which is maybe stretch based on his messed up 3b sizing with a fish in the pot.
If we assume his 3b % on the btn is the top 9% of hands, then its even more favorable to shove;
Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: KsTd5c7s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AsKQsQ 48.43% 275,551 30,017
8% 51.57% 294,432 30,017
The problem here is assuming he cbets his entire range on the flop and turn, which may be a stretch with a 200 hand sample.
In retrospect, the decision felt pretty close. All 3 options seemed viable and close in EV. My gut feeling was to jam. I thought about it, and followed through.
Anyways, he called with TJ97r and spiked a Q on the river to scoop. Was 72.5% vs his actual hand.
After getting soul crushed at PLO I met up with
cushlash who is also grinding the $1/3 PLO game. We had an interesting meetup after knowing of each other from 2+2 and had some wicked convo + beer after the PLO session.
Going into the $1/3 PLO again underrolled and full of a false sense of competence. Yeeehawww!