I just started playing live plo....only about 30 hours so far, but the pre - flop craziness in some games doesn't make sense to me. Your equities are so thin and it often seems that you can't even isolate to heads up that I don't see the logic in getting deep stacks in pre.

You may have a slight equity edge such as the spots you showed but the variance could kill all the but the deepest rolls.

You're obviously much more successful and experienced so just wondered your thoughts.



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Thanks, gentlemen. IMO, the two most underrated skills in poker are the mental game and bankroll management. It takes a lot more to throw my A game off now than in the past. My last session was special because I never veered away from my A game when I would have the majority of the time in the past. On a related note, nowadays when I do get frustrated or tired enough I'm playing my C game, my C game is much better now than it was when I started as a pro a little over a year and a half ago and I can sense it continuing to get better. I look forward to continuing to improve my mental game in all of its facets.

Haha

Yep, the variance of PLO is nuts relative to other games, mostly because the $ gets in so much more easily and equities run closer. Preflop allin confrontations especially contribute to variance, as illustrated by the KKJJ hand I discussed in my last post.

Not calculating the exact #s at the moment, it's analogous to a situation of someone offering me 50/50 odds to put up $2,000 to win $2,050. As discussed above, I think the spot was profitable, especially because there seemed to be a decent chance both opponents had AA, but I wouldn't blame anyone who decided to pass up this particular +EV spot. We have to draw the line somewhere. Moreover, there are hidden costs involved in such marginal spots. For example, if I was on my last buyin in a juicy game like this one, there are major opportunity costs if I get my $ in here, lose, and have to leave. I could find better spots that will allow me to much better exploit my profit expectation generally in the game.

For all these reasons, and because I benefit from exploiting my postflop edge in PLO the deeper the game is, I tend to play quite passively preflop in PLO (especially out of position) and wait until after the flop to build a pot unless I think there's an appealing dead $ overlay preflop.

Just lost a $12k pot getting it in with AcJcJdKh against bare 99xx and KQdd on a J93dd flop, 6x turn, Qd on river to lose to the flush. Biggest pot I've ever played, now making it all 3 of the biggest pots I've ever played me getting it in as a favorite and losing. Would have been +$10k for session if my hand could hold. Feel sick to my stomach right now; taking a long, sad walk around the casino. This will be the ultimate test of mental game resiliency.

Plo is the devil man. That used to be my main game when my gf was supporting us with her job. Now that she's back in school full time and I have to provide for both of us I had to give it up and go back to the much less swingy holdem.

That's PLO for sure. The worst example I can remember is sitting next to a buddy who mostly plays NLH in a 10-25 game. He had AAKQ ss. Flop came AQT with two of his suit for the nut flush draw plus top set. Long story short two guys had the K-T for the straight and he got $10K in the middle and it blanked off. Not sure he ever played PLO again But it is a good game if you can stand the variance - you definitely need to be resilient.

Despite not shipping the $12k pot as a big favorite (against two opponents), I still managed to book a winner: +$985 over another very long session, this time 10 hours. I give myself a lot of credit for leaving the table for a long walk almost immediately after losing the hand, not returning until I was ready to focus on the game again about twenty minutes later. The next couple of hours, I played great. Eventually, though, I did tilt some, the accumulation of: a) the $12k pot hand, b) raising big OTB with AAQQ, getting three callers, betting a QJ7ss flop, getting one caller, checking 10s turn behind, then folding to a bet on a 9x river; yet another ridiculous runout for me, c) raising big in the CO with AAxx, betting two streets on AJ3ccc8x7x runout and losing to 10754cc (the kind of junk hand I've gotten used to losing to); admittedly, I did misplay this hand on the river, as I had sized my bets perfectly to make a shove on the river and get a fold, but ultimately got scared of pulling the trigger and decided to just check behind. After that last hand, I definitely felt like I was on tilt, but didn't land any spots where the tilt could manifest itself, fortunately. Eventually, I managed to pick up some hands, settled down, and ultimately turned things around.

I'm still a little sick about the $12k pot, since I feel like I am running massively below EV in allin pots in these big PLO games, but I am trying to console myself by looking at my still extremely good #s for the year. If I start to run hot, I could have some gigantic wins.

Must have a pretty big edge in that game after losing those hands and still profiting $1k.

Just keep playing solid and you will have a monster week. It will come

Feeling very demoralized right now after having yet another session laden with extreme negative variance. I'm too tilted/tired to write many details, but some of the hands include the following:

-I see a flop 6 ways with A4ss1010 in the SB. Flop comes A103ss. I c/r allin and get three callers (including two allins for their stack). I lose to only stack that covers me's unimproved top set. ($5k pot)

-I see a flop 5 ways on the button with JJ88ss in a somewhat bloated pot. Flop comes 862cc. Preflop aggressor bets pot, crazy lag player raises pot, I get in my stack as does preflop aggressor. Turn Kc (horrible card). River 10d (horrible card). I lose to a bare 7910x wrap; other player mucks. ($6500 pot)

-After getting unstuck then getting stuck again some, with the game now short-handed, I see flop 4 ways for $80 with KK66ss. Flop KJ3dd. Crazy lag player #2 bets $225, short stack shoves allin for $250, I raise to $900, button (preflop aggressor) raises the pot, crazy lag folds, I reraise allin for $3300 total, button calls. Button has a Q109 wrap and flush draw, short stack same wrap; we can't run it twice because it's not a headsup pot. Brick turn. 9 on river obviously. ($7400 pot)

I am struggling to accept how bad I've been running in these games and I feel like I'm at the point now where I feel inherently unlucky any time the $ gets in for a big pot. As much as I want to reject the notion, I've taken my bad luck personally and believe, without wanting to, that it's something other than a nasty stretch of randomness, even though the objective reality is that it is indeed just a nasty stretch of randomness at a really bad time in my poker career (these being the biggest, best games I've ever played in). As soon as the other big stack turned over his wrap + flush draw, I honestly felt like I was drawing dead despite having the best hand and the short stack player having many of his outs. Fear validated as I lost yet another big pot, now making it the five largest pots I've played me getting it in as the favorite and losing. After mounting yet another comeback against the negative variance tonight and getting unstuck, ultimately I lost everything in that last pot and finished minus $4100 for the day.

I'm at the point where I'm very concerned that it will affect my play going forward even though I've maintained my mental resiliency extremely well up to this point. All I can do is continue to play my best; I hope I'm able to do that despite the psychological baggage that's accumulating.

Maybe play some NL for a week to change it up?

This is why I don't play PLO very often, crazy variance is crazy. Love the game, hate the variance.

I actually did this in early 2014 during my $16k downswing (my biggest downswing ever, and mostly a PLO downswing). However, given I don't know how much longer these 5-10 PLO games will last, I feel like the opportunity costs of not playing in them are too high. Also, so far I've managed to bounce back strong after each big loss, so I trust that I can do it again. I do admit, though, that I feel more susceptible than I have at any time over the last few weeks to letting my bad luck affect my play; I'm going to be putting extra effort and thought into making sure I continue playing optimally today.

Sorry, bob, I had missed this comment; he actually told the table that he had made a bet with a friend that he would shove allin with that specific hand "in a big pot" regardless of the board texture. He thought the whole situation was hilarious and said losing the $ was no big deal as the game was "peanuts" to him. Pretty interesting dude.

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Quick update: Ended up playing another marathon session last night, this time 12 hours. The night started very well and I shot up to +$3700 after 2-3 hours in the game at the must move table playing well and running well. Then I got moved to the main game and promptly started losing pot after pot to my nemesis in these games, the primary catalyst for the game who's running 3 standard deviations above EV on me and was playing on super monkey tilt.

It was around this time the following hand occurred: Player opens to $30, a couple players flat, new player to game (nl six max bracelet winner from a few years back) raises to $100 in the HJ, I have 8x7s5s5x in the CO and flat. Nemesis raises to $400 in the blinds. Three players call and it's on me to close the action. I call, leaving $2600 total behind.

Flop ($2000+): J85r (I have a rrfd). Nemesis checks, crazy lag player bets pot (I know he has a super wide range), tough player raises allin for $3k (I know he's aware crazy lag player has a wide range), it gets folded to me. I decide I can't fold a set with this SPR (especially with a blocker to middle set) and call for my stack. Crazy lag player also gets it in.

Turn Qs (I pick up the rrfd). River 9d.

Crazy lag player announces "straight" and turns over 8762. Tough reg turns over...a set of jacks. I got it in with by far the worst equity, for the first time ever in a pot in excess of $5k.

The more I think about it, the more I dislike my flat with 8755ss. Even though it's a decent hand in a deep-stacked game, the game dynamics were such that I could have anticipated a reraise after I threw in the $100. As such, I was setting myself up for a spot where I could easily end up in a very tricky spot with a shallow SPR. One of my leaks in these games has been overvaluing hands with this kind of structure, and it finally caught up to me in a big pot. Further, I was frustrated having continued to run terribly against the guy who everyone else is winning huge pot after huge pot against, which may have contributed to my decision to go with the hand. Frankly, I got what I deserved. It's always unfortunate when one mistake (which really wasn't even a huge mistake) compounds into losing a huge pot.

Fortunately, I maintained my composure well and shrugged it off quickly. Ended up booking a +$1050 winner. Other than that hand, I ran pretty well, and had I just folded that hand as would have been optimal I think I probably would have booked a big win.

I'm exhausted today after having played so many 10-14 hour sessions over the last week and not getting much sleep, but I plan on charging on, anyways, then maybe taking tomorrow off, as Valentine's Day is probably going to kill action, anyways. I learned a lesson the hard way with last night's session and hope it sticks.

EDIT: I forgot to mention that I'm proud that other than the one mistake I played pretty well this session and didn't let the previous days' runbad affect my play. Two things that I think helped a lot were a hard workout at the gym followed by meditating for awhile immediately prior to the session.

I know what you're saying here about the decision preflop. Mid rundowns with a pocket-pair seem to always look better than they play. It's especially tough when you flop bottom set on a connected board, where wraps can comprise a significant portion of your opponents' ranges (I had a similar hand last month on a KQ5cc flop where I ended up calling an AI c/r and lost to KK and likewise believe I made a mistake in playing my hand preflop). Whether you should actually fold this preflop in position I'm still not sure, though, and it probably depends on how you assess your rundown equity, and maybe you could compare this hand with 8765ss, which would definitely be a call in this spot, preflop, or even 8876ss, which I'm not sure about, either (both of these hands probably have around 5% more equity against relatively tight ranges). In the end, when I read this HH, I think 'OP is probably right, but there's a decent chance I would call here, even though part of me believes it's not the right play'. So, it's a good sign if you're diligently addressing this area of your game and it should help increase your edge. Well done on retaining your composure after losing this pot, by the way!

Came across this PGC and realized I played PLO w/ you DJ at the Venetian during the 2013 WSOP. Just wanted to root you on and wish you good luck.

And I agree that you should do everything you can to keep grinding those PLO games.

In before +30k week.

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Ya your flat is way too lose and I disagree that it's a good hand deep. At least you made some money tho

heh. none of this is surprising. I wonder where the hell these guys come from, their whole mentality's foreign to me.

good luck riding out the PLO swings. You're doing well to keep the mental game a priority!

DrTJO, it's funny re: the bolded, as another player at the table told me the same pretty much verbatim the following night. The more I think about it, the more I think at this particular table flatting the $100 with that hand was a mistake. I'm with you that 8765ss is an obvious flat, while not being as sure about hands like 8876ss under these circumstances. On a related note, I disagree with plzd's contention that 8755ss is not a good hand deep; I think it's appropriately considered a standard hand to see the flop with if you think you can see the flop for cheap, given the 4-6-x wrap potential.

Btw, DrTJO, I was quite flattered that you mentioned in your thread you decided to check out The Art of Learning based on my rec. Hope you've continued to enjoy it. I'm still working on Lori Greiner's book; it's excellent, but not very applicable to my life right now as I'm a lot more focused on poker than any potential entrepeneurial venture. Might read one of the meditation books you recommended.

This post made me feel great! I'm sure that it was in fact me, as I played a lot of PLO at the Venetian that summer. I'm guessing I would remember you, too, as I have a pretty good memory for people I've played with. That was an interesting WSOP, as I had just quit my job and was still transitioning to my new reality as a poker pro. If you ever spot me again, I'd love to say hi. Thanks again for the good wishes; I'm hoping to post about the +$30k week soon.

Thanks!

BetStack, hope you had a good CA trip and see you again soon.

Thanks, bob!



QUICK UPDATE: I ended up playing another long session (12 hours) on Friday night. It was a pretty uneventful session, as I didn't play any huge pots and was pretty card dead. Was involved in 4 allin pots, all headsup: won a $2200 pot RIT as a 75% favorite, lost a $1250 pot as a 86% favorite, lost a $2700 pot as a 45% favorite, chopped a $1500 pot RIT as a 58% favorite. Ultimately finished +$400ish.

Yesterday, I was as exhausted as I've been in a long time and was in no condition to play. Fortunately, I wasn't even tempted by the urge to play, as the game didn't get off; I was able to stay home and rest, sleeping 12 hours. I'm feeling pretty good today and ready to get back at it for the week whenever the game gets off.

Meanwhile, things are looking good on other fronts. Have three promising dating prospects right now I've been texting/messaging, have been working out and making progress on that front, and I've been catching up on media I find interesting as well as really enjoying the current NBA season.

I'm reading Waitzkin at a faster rate than any other book at the moment and recommended it to a friend today---decent signs that it's worth reading! While I'm not a serious chess player, I'm finding his ideas intersect with those from other books I've read recently on both meditation and decision making. What he says about intuition and slowing down time reminds me of Jonah Lehrer's How We Decide (both authors drawing initial ideas from cognitive psychology and then applying them to various performance scenarios). The way Waitzkin talks about "investing in loss" is clearly related to poker, as well, particularly the logic of EV, when you think it through at a deeper level. It's no coincidence that Jared Tendler devotes significant space to discussing "learning models" in his books, insofar as negative emotional experiences at the poker table can ultimately be used to enhance our skill level and commitment to peak performance. I really like the way Waitzkin always takes a positive (and honest) view of the losses he suffered at critical moments in chess and martial arts tournaments; it's likely a rare thing that someone with this much experience of performing at an elite level is able to draw upon the relevant science, not to mention use the memoir genre effectively.

It's not a good hand deep because you never have top set, your flush and straight/wrap draws are often dominated

8755ss is fine deep if it's heads up and in position but 4 way and SPR of 1.5 or w/e there's gonna be lots of RIO and not very much fold equity. That said I'm rusty on my plo so take what I said with a grain of salt