I’m pretty far below EV over a larger sample than that, don’t think it’s that rare.

Just as likely as being above EV over a large sample...

Interesting

Haha, I can definitely relate, used to to that after huge downswings aswell. Also thanks and I definitely agree with ridiculousness of people showing 100k hand samples when selling coaching. It is very frequent aswell which is annoying.

People run way more under ev than me in way bigger samples. My nonsd is losing, so sorry, no cool redline warrior itt

Agree with the sentiment of this post - but I have definitively come across quite PG+Cs with fake graphs (who have later applied for cfp and had to validate )

Graphs increase engagement precisely because they allow the reader to attach a narrative to the session, month or time period. Graphs are basically just telling you the story of your random walk around your true winrate, which is nonsense, and feeds all kind of inherent human bias (EG winning $500 feels much worse if you look at a graph and see you were up $2k, even though a $500 session is way over expectation for any 200nl grinder).

I genuinely believe graphs are toxic for mental game and do everything I can to avoid looking at them personally - even with the knowledge that they don't provide any information if I see one in PG+C etc my sub conscious immediately starts spieling some kind of garbage story ('sick consistent crusher', 'well even though he's got a sick overall winrate last 50k hands have been breakeven', 'all of his winrate comes from this recent huge heater')

TLDR: **** a graph

If you run $X amount under EV over 100k hands, you're expectation is to still be $X under EV after your next 1million

2/5 update?

Took a shot yesterday, long story short it went really bad. Ran awful, played even worse. I run into the same issues every time I move up stakes - giving regs way too much credit, not being properly focused, trying to play better than Im capable of. All in all I always end up playing worse than my avarage.

One issue I have with 500z is that pool seems really unstable - one moment its really good, but 5 minutes later its basically 30 regs and 1 fish battling. If thats how it usually looks, Im not sure Ill ever be more profitable there than at lower stakes Anyway, gonna take the next shot when the pool looks good.

That sucks, I did hear it's pretty tough. At least you know you are profitable at 200.

Couldnt agree more with this - my exact thoughts whenever I take a look at the pool.

Sorry to hear the shot went badly gl rest of the month !

GL in 2019 man, subbed.

Planning on moving from reg tables to zoom?

No worries, its just part of the game, first shots always go terrible right?

ty, reading your thread aswell. gl!



Played the worst session of the year yesterday, not because of results but the quality of play. The amount of spews I made was unbelievable, even now when I think of one hand I played vs bigje Im still pissed at myself. Im not in a good place mentally now, the failed 500z shot (again, talking about the quality of play not the actual result) had way bigger impact on my mindset than I expected. Decided to take the day off today and start fresh tomorrow.

Could you share the poorly played hands?
Sick to read that a crusher like you still makes mistakes from time to time, do you think it was tilt, leveling or lack of knowledge/confidence at a certain spot?

I feel like I dismiss a lot of hands quickly as tilt when I'm just clicking buttons at a certain spot and don't have the confidence to make the right move.

I might share some of them later when Im back on my pc.

Haha of course I make mistakes, Im sure I make one every minute. Not even Linus plays perfectly and Im not even a top10 reg at 200z.

It was a combination of things. I tried to change my schedule, so I could play the more lucrative December evening games and it didnt go well - was tired, unfocused, unmotivated, you name it. But mostly it was due to lack of confidence and tilt caused by the failed 500z shot - Im really embarassed about it, because one failed day should have literally no impact on my mindset. Just proves how much I still need to learn on mental game.

I know what you mean, but I dont think thats how I perceive it most of the time. I think Im pretty fast at identifying that simply I lack focus and autopilot/buttonclick, but yesterday it unfortunately was a literal tilt.


BTW MOURINHO FINALLY OUT

I'd give you top 10 at 200z - think you are being harsh on yourself

haha Im fairly certain Im not, but it doesnt matter. Thanks anyway, but Im pretty sure we havent played enough with eachother since I moved up for you to say that, you sure you know who I am?

OP is obv papagun haha vaaaaamooooo

Top10 200z regs now!


Btw, you shouldn't feel bad about your shot going badly at 500z, also you shouldn't expect 500z to have that many fish anyways. That's the toughest game in the world that isn't high stakes, people don't play there to go after the fish, but to prove they are one of the top players in the world.

Gotta be very confident to fight those guys and checking all the time if the pool has enough fish for you to be + EV is a bad idea, it will make you not pay as much attention to the hands you play. When you take your next shot in there, just focus on playing as best as you can and forget about the reg-to-fish ratio, you shouldn't get worried about getting wet when you jump into the rain. Otherwise it's better to keep playing your regular games.

we don't play 500z to prove anything rapidesh, it's to make money, sometimes the pool is good enough that you can make a decent hourly

I haven't logged into stars in years, how many players are in the 200 and 500z pool at good hours now?

If you're not top 10 at 200, then the landscape must be even more grim than I thought. I hope you're being humble, but that's not very Brazilian attitude of you.

I dont feel bad about my shot going badly, I feel bad about playing way below my capabilities and having it impact my confidence greatly. I dont expect 500z to have many fish, I also dont treat it as a way to achieve the highest hourly, but when you face a reg/fish ratio of 30, with people like BigBlindBets in the pool, it becomes a rather expensive way to learn (but might still be worth it).

Thats what I genuinely think, but wouldnt that actually be a good thing? More regs beating the games for high winrate should mean the games are pretty juicy.

If you're already a high stakes player you have nothing to prove, you're already making your money in there, if you're a 200z reg when you take shots at 500z you're mostly trying to prove you're worthy of playing those games so you can claim that higher hourly.

Prob just comes down to player pool. I'm sure if you get into the right games could probably crush 100/200.

I definitely know who you are - I am savage with my labelling and you are one of the few 200z regs who retain the Play Well Reg tag, definite signal you are top 10

could you pm me your SN? GL GL

Gl with future shot, dont worry

funny that rapi is in every thread and talking nonsense

for sure

haha, ymb's flawless skill judgment method?

that depends pm'd

thanks! come on, he didnt say anything wrong