Quote:
Originally Posted by MicroDonkYT
Last month was really disappointing, because I put in a ton of volume and time, essentially playing full time, and not getting the results I want. This month, I am playing part time and crushing. Go figure.
It’s because both samples are meaningless sizes. People hate hearing this but I can’t tell you how important it is to fully come to terms with variance in poker.
Even 100k hand samples can vary greatly depending on your distribution. Once you start to get to 2-300k hands you’ll start to have an idea of how you’re doing overall. But don’t get too wrapped up in these smaller samples, just focus on playing well. I remember reading in your thread a few months ago how blasted you felt after having some ‘ridiculous stretch’ of variance when you lost 5 buyins in 45 minutes. Over time, depending on how many tables you play, you will get really accustomed to stuff like this.
It’s not to look down upon your results at all, you seem to have a good head for this all and will no doubt succeed if you keep at it. But just remember, you will inevitably have a month where you will have lost 32 buyins in 22k hands rather than won it.
There’s nothing wrong with being excited about results, but make sure the focus is always on playing your best during your session. Master that and you will always be able to study enough to find an edge in poker.
**fwiw you are spot on with what you say about your redline making your overall experience smoother because you will be less dependent on showdown distribution. You can run good/bad in redline as well but it will have much less fluctuation. For me, redline is very dependent upon how focused I am and how many tables I am playing. If you are slowing down with each decision and thinking about each spot, you will find more calls and bluffs, and your redline will automatically improve.
GL