I suppose this is long overdue. Been burying my results in the winrates thread because I was worried about locals gaining insight into my play, and generally like keeping a somewhat aggro fishy image.
I realize now it doesn't really matter all that much. I suppose if some regs stumble across it, to the good, thinking regs (those more likely to visit 2p2) none of this will come as a big surprise. I'm not really exposing any "secrets" about my play, and truth be told even if I do need to make adjustments based on what I write here, well that will just assist me in improving my game.
In short, I am writing this thread for me. Going over my play, forcing myself to think about situations, be if critical about my play and accepting criticism (or rejecting it! Nyah Nyah I can't hear u!!) will only serve in the long run to make me a better player.
For every 2 hours on the felt, I like to spend an hour off evaluating my play, going over hands, and analyzing situations. Even after 15++ years of playing, millions on online hands and god knows how many live hours, I still love this silly stupid 2-card game.
99% of this blog will be written on a smartphone, so I apologize in advance for any typos.
My goal here is to by year's end elevate my game and hopefully give myself good enough reason to begin making the 90+ minute trip to bigger and better games. While I think my hourly at 2/5 is currently maxed out, that is unfortunately the largest consistent game at my local casino.
I'll start with some background, and repost the 1000-hour update I made in the winrate thread, including typos and all:
Just about hit the 1000 hour mark with PokerJournal. Didn't think early w/r was sustainable, but have been averaging a pretty consistent 15bb/hr at 2/5.
Granted my local casino is a bit behind the times when it comes to poker theorists and innovative minds, so not fully sure if results would be similar in Vegas/AC (granted I wouldn't be playing 2/5 if there was a bigger option, but still...)
Anyway, here are some quick screen grabs of data.
Answers to questions asked:
I usually only play 1/2 while waiting on a 2/5 seat, and this is the softest 1/2 I have ever played. Hands are played fairly face up.
Also I am quite aggro in general in 2/5 (as the SD seems to show), and players just assume I play the same game every day no adjustments. In truth I know the players well enough now to tailor my game to specific tables, players, instances etc.
At 1/2 I generally just build lots of small pots IP, abandon as needed, then jam and get called (because of false image) when I have the nuts. A decent number of players fear me because they know every confrontation could be playing for stacks and they let me walk over them. Others use that perception to try to get it all in with me light as they think I'll just call everything with any pair or draw.
Truth is the room is in a bit of a poker time warp and the players think they are exploiting my tendencies when in fact it is the other way around. I even get bumhunted sometimes by absolutely awful players who just don't grasp or understand what I am doing and how I manage to be so consistently "lucky."
I do what I can to give each player the desired image of me he/she wants. But reality and perception have no real correlation to each other. I consider this "marketing."
While I don't think the WR is sustainable over a significant sample, I do think $50/hr is doable AT THIS PARTICULAR CASINO.
It really is like playing them with their cards exposed. It takes a decent amount of bad luck to lose at 1/2 there, IMO.
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Here is my theory: The deeper you get into a hand, the more skill becomes a factor. With 2 cards, the decision process is rather simple: Do I have a good hand? If yes raise, if not fold. If I think my hand is really good then let's get as much money in the pot as possible!
Anyone can do this. It doesn't take much skill, just basic poker knowledge and little if any hand-reading analysis. Everyone gets cards pre flop. This is a standard situation to most players. The difference in skill from the best player in the game to an average player will not be very large.
On the flop again decisions are relatively simple. Do I have a good hand? Do I have a good draw? How many outs do I have if I think in behind and am I priced in to draw? Will he fold if I bet?
When a pot is blown up preflop, especially in a 100 BB game, then many of these decisions have already been made for the player, and math can dictate what to do. An average player with basic comprehension may make mistakes here, but they generally won't be egregious especially if math tells him how he should proceed. Again, these is a situation many poker players are familiar with at all levels. Often, this is where the hand ends.
The turn is where generally people don't have as much experience. Especially at lower levels. If the pot here is large then well it can really be simple math what to do. But if the pot was kept small, and stacks are significant, this is where a more experienced player can force average/bad players to make mistakes. It's unfamiliar territory for many. Pair plus flush draw on the turn in a 20 BB pot with 100BB effective stack sizes or TPTK similar Scenario facing sudden pressure what do u do? The answer I find most often is "I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT TO DO HERE OMG I DONT KNOW HERE IS SOME SPAZZ PLAY GO AHEAD LEAVE ME ALONE NOW!!
Of course I'm simplifying the above, but you get my gist. My standard opening raise (and again I do adjust to tables) is 3 BB from ep, and 3-4BB mid position. I want callers, I invite callers. I'm cool with making a horribad fold/call with AA OOP in a small pot on an uncoordinated board if I have to. (That again is built into my game. I afford myself lots of small mistakes.) On the flop, in position, I will often price in the flush draws. 20 BB pot, 2 spades, I have an OP? 9bb bet. Here u go I invite you to hit. (This is where a lot of my variance comes in but that is built into my game).
I just gave him appropriate odds (sort of, more on that another time). I want to get him relaxed and comfortable so I can take him out of his element on the later streets. I am a very good hand/person reader and usually know where I am at in a hand, so this affords me that luxury. I play to my strengths and skills. (If those don't happen to be your skill set, playing this type of game is suicide... Stick to math and fundamentals, u won't go wrong.)
I like to keep pots small, watch and observe, the go for the killshot when the time is right. This also means I make lots of bad folds and lots of bad calls. Again, it is built into my game. When I truly don't know where I am in a hand, my default becomes "screw it, jam and let the other guy figure it out." (Or when pot is small fold and eff it.)
If the pot is small and I am OOP, I'll often fold to marginal pressure an "let" the other player walk all over me. Or at least let him think I am his weak tight post-flop bitch.
I often let good hands in bad spots go preflop when OOP (ie I rarely call OOP 3 bets with AJs even with good odds, same with mid pairs... Much more likely to call with 56s if I think my call will induce a waterfall effect. Somewhat standard I think but ppl assume I call anything with any two. "You would have called with this hand!" Is something I hear a lot. And quite frankly it couldn't be farther than the truth.
I also show my cards when it suite me. As I said earlier I do what I can to give the players and table the image of me they want me to have. But I show only what I want you to see.
These moves generally don't work in higher games generally when people are more experienced post flop, and people are able to see thru my bull****. And online you will absolutely get crushed (obv.)
Also to my advantage is that if u never played with me and were to profile me, you would assume I was a goofy spewy fish just waiting to give his money away. So that gives me another slight EV edge. Watch my game and my bet sizing without paying careful attention and yup, I'm a fish.
Sorry for rambling and for all the typos that are likely to be above. Writing this on a cell phone while waiting for someone and my mind isn't a very linear place in general.
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Don't want to derail this into a strat thread, so to some it up I'll just say this (my actual answer that I started to post was well over 1000 words, and ain't nobody got time for that):
I raise smaller earlier because of my style and preference for multiway action. I am an information junkie, one of my biggest poker strengths is hand reading, and I prefer to see how a hand develops. And because of this style, the main reason I keep early opens small is I would rather not play inflated pots OOP.
The result is that yes, I "spew" quite a bit speculating and don't get optimal early value from monster hands OOP. I lose lots of sklansky bucks and value with big hands in ep, but I do gain it back in volume.
I will post more in a different section why this works for me (and why I tell every student/poker protégée I've ever mentored NOT to play my style or try to replicate it). The short answer is : I have near photographic recall of all hands opponents have played. IOW, I'm lucky enough to have a HUD in my head. It lets me get creative.
And yes, there are times when I vary my opening size but they involve table dynamics and other variables (generally) not associated with hand strength. But generally the 3BB EP opening works well for me. And not just over the 1k hours tracked with poker journal. Have had success with it for many years (live not online necc.).
My VPIP for a full ring low limit NL game is probably somewhere around 35-40%. Fish on a heater.