I don't understand this line of thinking. Binking a huge score would be sick but end of the day all that matters is the roi. What's more likely to happen? A top 5 finish or a min cash? I mean I understand the temptation to fire off and it might even be good to do so on a couple mtts <$500 bi per year. But $12k+?!
I've posted about this in another thread and I know you've read it. But I'll say it again. If I had an "extra" 12k just sitting around every year I'd save it up for a down payment for a rental in a decent state like NV or AZ. The $EV and life EV has to be higher than blasting off in a donkament.
This is just short sighted thinking and assumes he's never moving up stakes etc...
Obviously you need to be +EV to play in a MTT, and I don't recommend blowing your brains out in huge fields, but hitting a big score can allow you too never move down stakes, buy a house, buy a business etc...
Of course you can do whatever you want. I wasn't saying otherwise! I'm sure there are lots of people that think my idea is as crackpot as I think yours is lol. It's just pretty interesting to think about from a EV (both life and $) standpoint.
11t- lol this has little to nothing about stakes and more about $/hr. NL winrates are basically capped. Blasting off in high field, large buy in mtts to the tune of 12-20k per year is expensive for anyone. OP would have to making some serious money in cash games in order to not feel some financial pain and mental anguish at bricking them over and over every single year.
If the only two options were rental property or firing mtts I guess it could be close? That why I'm asking/posting in here about it- maybe OP or someone lurking actually has worked out the numbers? For example, maybe the number of years it takes to pay off a mortgage == the number of years taken to realize your EV through grinding MTTS, and assuming you pay cash.
I don't disagree that getting a large lump sum of cash at time is beneficial. The question is why choose high risk ventures such as mtts over standard investments when you already have steady "extra" income to invest slowly with little risk?
Buying a $5 lotto ticket is one thing...buying 12-20k worth of +EV lotto tickets is another- it's still a ****ing lotto!
Last edited by upswinging; 06-06-2018 at 02:06 AM.
Playing 1C tomorrow. I've put more study time in off the table in 2018 than I have in my other 4 years of being a pro combined. I'm as prepared as I've ever been. Time to play great and run even better.
Bagged up 90k. Peaked at 113.8k going into the final break but had a pretty rough last level although I could've saved like 10-15k in some spots. I was honestly completely exhausted mentally after the dinner break after level 2 and mostly it was due to being unable to get a good nights sleep the night before. Got to bed at a decent hour but tossed and turned for 2 hours before I put an episode of The Simpsons on and finally passed out. My level of focus wasn't where it needed to be but thankfully I ran well enough to be able to run it up a bit. I plan on getting a hefty night sleep tomorrow to be well rested for Day 2 on Friday.
I'm not pleased with how I played (I rarely am completely satisfied after a session and beat myself up but I'm working on that) and I wish I could have like 5 hands back. I just need to take a little more time to think things through and have a clear head going into Day 2. It's been a rough year with a bunch of personal things which a few of you know about but I coped with it by engulfing/distracting myself with poker and trying to improve so if I'm not at the casino, there's a good chance I'm at home watching training videos or going over my HH's just trying to get better. I think I'm 10x the technical poker player now than I was at this time last year and I hope to continue to improve every day.
Altogether I'm happy with the result since is the first time I'm bagging over starting stack for Day 2 of the Main. Year 1 I got up to 80k on first break from 50k starting and then ended up bagging 10k (LOL) after getting run over by a GPI top 20 player. Year 2 I bagged 14.7k after getting run over by a GPI top 50 player in a bunch of spots but I was able to run the 14.7k up on Day 2 to 124k heading into Day 3. It feels good to have such a solid stack going into the second day knowing how much I need to feel comfortable for Day 3.
Here's a HH for old time's sake (let's see if I remember how to properly format these):
75/150
Effective Stacks: 50,000 Preflop (225): Hero is in the HJ with AJ
Hero opens 400, SB 3bets to 1200, Hero calls.
SB recently FT'd the WSOP Ladies Event
Flop (2550): AT6
SB bets 1200, Hero calls.
Turn (4950): 4
SB bets 4500, Hero calls.
River (13950): 8
SB checks, Hero checks.
Spoiler:
SB shows QQ and MHIG. wuuut
I later knocked her out which made the PokerNews blog:
I opened pre CO, Asian woman BTN 3bet, SB TAAAANKED and was staring at her chips calculating how much she had before calling, I knew she was loaded so I just called the 3bet and we bent to Binksville on the flop. She checks flop, I check, BTN bets 3k into 6k, SB rips in 14.9k, I reship for like 45k eff and hold.
BTN showed AJo when she folded and berated me and since she was an Asian woman and I'm used to them being angry and me and yelling at me you'd think I'd be able to understand what she was yelling but I had no clue. She told me she had better than queens and had a blocker to aces or something idk. I didn't know AJo was better than QQ.
That's it for my Day 1 recap. Hopefully I'm able to do a Day 2 recap before I bring a mountain into Day 3. May the Flop be with us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Good luck Timothy. Do you have all of yourself?
Thanks! And nope. I sold 300% and have swapped with tons of people and my plan is to punt it all off on Day 2. Think I've made a good show of giving it my all so far!
Onto Day 3 with 1,900 more than I started the day with.
Recap:
Didn’t win a hand for 1.5 levels despite playing a ton of pots and quickly lost a third of my stack. Not torching off money in bad cbet spots prevented me from losing half my stack or more here.
Stayed between 60-75k for three levels. Didn’t get it back to 90k until the second to last level of the night when I had 101k on the final break of the night.
Quickly run it up to 118k after break. One orbit later I was down to 60k and couldn’t breathe.
Run it back up to 91,900 and threw it in a plastic bag.
It's just a matter of time before OP hits a big pay day.
If he wins a bracelet this year I'm gonna buy him all the Whataburger he can eat and he's going to enjoy this time!
LMAO, kiddy game is down the street. If randal ships this bad boy stripperz and blow is on me. And its also gunna b all he can eat...and I promise you he will in fact enjoy!
Out 100 people from the money. This one hurts bad. Don’t know what else to say. Thanks for the sweats.
Sorry dude. I know that feeling well from a few years ago, so I know there's really nothing to say to cheer you up. I recommend lots of alcohol, followed by a pool day with even more alcohol.
Sucks waiting a year, but I'm sure you'll have plenty of chances in the future.
Sorry dude. I know that feeling well from a few years ago, so I know there's really nothing to say to cheer you up. I recommend lots of alcohol, followed by a pool day with even more alcohol.
Sucks waiting a year, but I'm sure you'll have plenty of chances in the future.
Well said.
TJ, I guarantee you could have mincashed for the $15k if you turtled up for the last few levels before the bubble, but who wants that? You're a smart dude. You're maximizing $ev and playing for the $8.8 mil as you should be. Sometimes it goes to hell, like it did tonight, but I'm sure you went down making good decisions. GG dude. You'll get it next time.
Sorry dude. I know that feeling well from a few years ago, so I know there's really nothing to say to cheer you up. I recommend lots of alcohol, followed by a pool day with even more alcohol.
Sucks waiting a year, but I'm sure you'll have plenty of chances in the future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeC2012
Well said.
TJ, I guarantee you could have mincashed for the $15k if you turtled up for the last few levels before the bubble, but who wants that? You're a smart dude. You're maximizing $ev and playing for the $8.8 mil as you should be. Sometimes it goes to hell, like it did tonight, but I'm sure you went down making good decisions. GG dude. You'll get it next time.
Just seeing now that I didn't respond to these. Thanks for the kind words guys.
My shove was def +chipEV but not +EV given the dynamics in play. What happened was it folded to me BTN with K7o with like 13.5bb with two EXTREMELY tight dudes in the blinds. I had SB covered and it was an old guy who might've VPIP'd 5 times in the past 3 hours and the BB (had me way covered) earlier had to agonizingly call a HJ 10bb shove closing the action in the BB with 99. Anyways, I jammed in the 13.5bb, SB folded, BB tank called after getting a count with AJo and that was all she wrote for me.
Two days later after I was done being all depressed about it I was at the gym and started thinking about the hand. I was trying not to be results oriented but in my head I was like "Man, I think I should have opened for 2bb and then if I got raised, folded and if I got called, just cbet any flop for 1.5bb and then given up if called or raised." That way in the worst case scenario I still have 10bb after the hand and I'm never at risk of being out of the tournament (unless I flop some sick cooler). I thought that would've been the nut way to play the hand.
Like two hours later I get a text from my friend who's a bracelet winner/large live field MTT boss who said "So as someone who I can tell obv wants to improve I’ve waited a few days to tell u this but I think your bustout hand is a mistake." We ended up having a long conversation about it and he said he would have min raised pre and cbet 1.3bb on any flop if called.
This was a pretty cool moment for me because I had reached this conclusion on my own and knew it meant I was on the right track towards improving beyond a live 2/5 bet/fold grinder slash MTT grinder who never gets deep enough.
I've been excited to put in off the table work, watching a bunch of training videos, reading books, and then applying some new stuff at the tables. I think I have a natural gift for reading people/interpreting game flow so if I can get my technical game to improve little by little every day I really think I can become a beast provided I can put it all together in this messed up head of mine. Stay tuned.