Welp, likely going to lose the nutrition side of the prop. GF's family visited this weekend and I used the remainder of my cheat days. In theory I could just stay under 1800 calories each of the next ten days, but in practice? Gonna be near impossible. Missed a few gym days too. Dragged myself in there today + ate grilled chicken wraps and coffee, so I'm adjusting back to the normal grind.

Speaking of grind (Smooth transitions ftw), I didn't do much of it his weekend. For the month I'm behind on my volume goal of 3000 Spins, but I think I can catch up. ChipEV has been fantastic, more of that please!

Have two horses still in the $215 6-Max PKO COOP with 65 left and $100k+ bounties up top. Unfortunately it's 1030 PM here and the MTT resumes in 6 hours, so I'll be fast asleep once the cards are in air. Will be dreaming about an epic HU match where I get to do this:

GG

Went over 1800 on Tuesday, so I lose that half of the freeroll. Congrats Jdawg, I'm glad the money could go to someone who really needs it.

No Scrooge McDuck bath for me, both busted short of the FT. Biggest score in COOPs so far is ~$5k, so we're down a fair amount for the month. Still got some time left to bink, fingers crossed.

I know I jussssst binked a 200x, but...

In the past two weeks, I've basically broke even despite a cEV in the high 50s/low 60s. And the past two days have been significantly worse.



The cEV is terrible, I'm -4600 EV chips in that stretch and -22000 real chips. I'm tempted to think it's variance because blah blah sample size/previous history, but I surely could have sprung a leak somewhere. Will do some investigating.

Oh, and that little utptick at the end? I hit another 200x today. Got HU with the CL, and lost AT to Q3 (River Q) and then KQ to Q4. GF came home at the exact moment when I was yelling for 'No Queen, No Three' and was able to witness the disappointment first-hand.

https://www.boomplayer.com/25275878_0C80F84BB9

https://www.boomplayer.com/25275879_86DD832520



Likely taking tomorrow off, need to recharge/regroup.

-go to cEV graph
-look at ytd graph
-look at lifetime graph
-think if you're doing anything significantly different
-if not, stop worrying

If you reread your thread, this seems like a bit of a pattern: you worry you're doing something wrong during short negative EV stretches, and then when the downswing ends it's all good and you realize it was just runbad.
You don't seem overtly negative about it so it's probably not a big deal, but you could probably cut out the worrying part y realizing this is something that you do.

/internet psychiatrist

Very good advice just imho

That might be part of what keeps him motivated to work on his game though. But your advice is good.

update?

Agreed. It's always good to put things in perspective, and being able to take a step back to evaluate the bigger picture can help quite a bit. Makes the real/EV downers look much smaller and gives a better idea of how 'consistent' the results truly are over the course of a year.

+1

I do most of my improvement during the rough patches of negative variance. It'd be cool to say that I work equally hard during the good and bad stretches, but that's simply not true. When I'm running good, I'm much less likely to review hands in my spare time, but when I've hit that ugly stretch, I'm all about leakfinding.

Additionally, while having the "Sky is Falling" mentality each time something bad happens surely isn't a healthy thing, it's a big part of what motivates me to keep studying, keep working, and (hopefully) keep improving.

Will do a full month update in a day or so.

After taking a few days to recharge, I spent the last week in the US. Attended a bachelor party in Lake Tahoe (Lots of drinking, eating, casino gambling) and then celebrated my birthday with my parents. Brought my computer with me but didn't even log in. Was a really nice break from the e-life.

Normally I'm itching to get back to the grind, but because of the recent downer and how much fun I had in the states, I would have been willing to extend the trip a few days. Unfortunately, the GF had to get home because her job doesn't allow her to take random days off, so I'm back in Vancouver and already on the grind.

Usually when I delay the monthly update, it's because things went poorly and I don't have the energy to post about it. Last month was no different.

Started off well enough, binking that 200x in the 25th hour or so of September but it was all downhill from there. At that point I was +$20k and the group was +$12k or so; I then proceeded to go on a $13k downer and the stable dropped ~$50k during WCOOP.

In times like this, I do my best not to dwell on the money that's lost and instead focus on what I can do to make things better.

The cEV was decent during the downer (47) but I can obviously still improve. Also started mixing in $60s to limit variance/increase the likelihood of a winning day, because I've forgotten what that feels like. There's a fair amount of mental stress that accumulates after such a bad stretch and I'm noticing it take up space in my brain. Need to be more vigilant about recognizing it and fighting back by 'injecting logic' and sweating off the negative vibes at the gym.



Despite all the doom and gloom, I still made $100/hr last month and that doesn't include the small amount of RB or the $900 refund I received from Stars. It's actually a lot less than the equity I lost, considering I played ~1500 games this year vs banned accounts that I know of, but at least it's something.

Hoping for a more enjoyable/profitable October and that starts with more hours on the tables. Good luck everyone!

That's a painful graph to watch. How different would you feel if it was flipped (meaning the 200x came at the end of the graph)? Hope you get a spike like that soon!

I always thought 47 cEV was on the low side but I'm no expert. Is migrating to partypoker an option for you? There are 3-handed 50$ and 100$ 'spins' there and RB is a lot higher. For a high volume player like you, it might make quite the difference?

Anyway, here's to all the luck at the tables in October (I'm prolly not playing much this month, so you can have my luck too this month)

favour, do u mind posting spins YTD graph? I'd like to see the variance in that graph

thx ^_^ and good luck spinnin'

any update? How is the grind going? The gym? The GF? Some food pics. It's awfully quiet here

That's still a three figure ev hourly pre-rb if 6 tabling which aaron afair does. Want to know a comparable job where this is considered "on the low side"

Well he is in Vegas now so I'd say there is some food/degen pictures coming

Hi thread, it's me, the OP.

Just seem to be super busy these last few weeks, and once I'm done with grinding/stable work I'm avoiding anything poker related so that explains my absence from here. Plus, I haven't had anything super exciting happen poker-wise in a while but I'll do my best to be more active going forward.

It's even more painful when it's your own graph!

Admittedly, 47 is lower than I'd like. I'm over 50 for the year, and something like 55 if I cherry pick a recent 12k sample. 6-tabling does lead to a decent EV hourly tho, as Leaksssuck pointed out.

I've dabbled a bit at Party, will likely mix in some games there and perhaps some on other sites, but botting is a real fear nowadays and PS appears to be the site most willing to reprimand those cheaters. It's sad that we've reached this point and between my concern re: the future of online poker + the month long ish downswing + getting older/wanting more stability, I'm willing to consider actual job prospects out in the real world. Finding a job that would satisfy me both intellectually and financially might be a tall task, but thankfully I've got a few friends who have told me that when I'm ready, there's something waiting for me.



Not that far below expectation, only something like $18k. But I guess the fact that I think running $18k (180 buy-ins) under isn't bad kinda tells you how much variance there can be in Spins.

Oof. Fell off, diet-wise. Bad eating habits have accompanied the downswing, and I've realized that the two are related. Negative variance undoubtedly affects my psyche, and I look for solace in other things (i.e. food). Probably put on about 4-5 pounds in the last five weeks, but I'm re-dedicating myself to diet/fitness and should shed that by Thanksgiving.

Yessir, I was in Vegas last week and ate a lot of food. GF flew in for the final few days of the trip, and we went to our favorite steakhouse: Gordon Ramsay's Steak in Paris Casino. Shared a Ribeye, Caesar Salad w/Scotch Egg, Truffled Mac and Cheese, and a Sticky Toffee Pudding. I think I've said this before, but his Sticky Toffee Pudding is my favorite dessert of ALL-TIME.

Lighting isn't great, but here are the pics!

You’re the man Aaron. Good luck in the tail end of this year. Show us how its done!!!

#gainzflexage #crushthemintodust

Thanks man!

Solidthought is a beast. He and I were chatting about poker/fitness on Skype, and he told me to try his wide grip pull-up workout -- He was able to do 100 in 15 minutes. I'm in reasonably good shape, so I thought I'd give it a shot and...

I failed miserably. Was able to get in 50 by 8:05, but there was no chance I was getting to 100. A week later I tried again, went until 10 minutes and only got 55. The final few sets are like 2 pull-ups each. Gonna keep trying.

Still not out of this Spin downswing; it's been about 2 months now (Started the day after I binked the 200x) and I'm doing my best to stay mentally strong. Getting super withered from the variance and I'll likely drop down a bit/mix in other formats while I work on my game. Doesn't help that my downer coincided with the stable's biggest downer + getting rolled for $35k MU and loans. He's promised to pay back, which is a nice sentiment, but there's obviously no guarantee it happens. There's another horse who has a similar MU # and he's been in and out of contact for the last month as well.

So all of that sucks.

Coming into today, I was down a decent amount for the month and assumed that I'd finish October in the red, which would have made it the 2nd losing month of my career. Thankfully, I decided on a whim to load the $109 Bounty Builder, and I shipped it for a shade over $16k.

was just going to post in groupchat that i expect a blog update soon. wp

Nice to see an update indeed, downswing must be hard though, even if ending in the green. Maybe switch to mtt's?

Honest question: I always wondered what drives people to stake other persons in poker. Especially since more often than not you don't really know who that person is, how reliable he/she is etc. Seeing someone walk away with 35k MU and more importantly loans, it's something I would not be able to stomach personally. I hope for you the stable turns around it's "misfortune" and you can reach the end of the year with a blast...

profit obv.

Was going to post a monthly recap anyways, but this was much more fun.

Don't think I'll move to them full-time. I'm so used to the freedom of Spins that playing MTTs sounds terrible and I'm saying that AFTER I binked. Plus I'm not sure that long term hourly is better in MTTs. Will still mix them in with my Spin grind and I think I'll get in more Spin volume because of the longer sessions.

Well, profit.

Staking, in theory, is very profitable (especially when combined with coaching) and I can't match that sort of ROI in any standard investment (Altho Bitcoin appears to be close, and each passing day that I don't have loads of it makes me sad). It absolutely sucks to have someone walk out on MU and/or steal a bunch of money, but that's sort of the trade-off. I will admit that when things like that happen, part of me is very tempted to close up shop and go back to relying solely on myself. But then again, when a horse binks a five figure score, I'm dancing in my office and wondering how I can get more guys into the group.

If you focus entirely in MTTs and chasing to be one of the best your yearly should be much higher in MTTs. I dont know if you have the willing to put all this work and you should definitely sacrifice the freedom spins offer if you choose this path

Even with someone at 3% abi 100$ playing 50000 spins, you get 150 000$
I would be suprised if you cant achieve 1.5x this number playing MTTs

There's no doubt that MTTs will be alive for longer than spins, and more profitable in the long run, but that's exactly because MTTs are the most complex poker format, the holy grail of poker, that requires not only the knowledge of strategy for very different stack sizes under different models (chip EV and ICM) but also stronger mental game than spins because of the fact that the performance in the highest pressure situations (final tables) makes a large difference to the overall EV ROI, unlike in spins, where the top jackpot contributes less than 1% to the EV ROI (or at most 2% at other sites).

MTTs are high risk / high reward investments of both money and time. PKOs are especially difficult (and especially profitable, as Barone's case proves, congrats on the bink ) because it's not easy to calculate the mapping from the stack size distribution to the $ equity - it requires a lot of future game simulation, and the number of players whom Hero is covering can change really fast.

And yes, they take away a lot of personal freedom, so I'm not going to play them full-time at least until I'm at a property to which only I have keys and where I can hide from my relatives; until then, I'll be leaning on the side of caution and be conquering various kinds of SnGs

I hope you don't have to play MTTs anytime soon, folks, GL with our current, relatively easy, games!

bolded triggered me. No, MTTs is not the toughest format to learn.

No, you don't need a better mental game for MTTs than spins.

No, PKO's aren't that difficult. It's like 1 mathematical equation added to calculate odds.

I'll give you some slack, yes there is a lot to MTTs that make it intricate and special. Almost every situation is unique. However, you definitely don't need a rock solid mental game for MTTs. I'm not saying it doesn't help or isn't necessary either. It's just as dependent as it is on spins. Typically if you **** up 1-2 sessions a month due to being a tiltmonkey in spins, it KO's your entire month EV/$ wise. Punt off a sesh or a few deep runs in MTTs and you can just move on to another day.

Spins are waaaay more tilting to play than any other format of poker, except maybe HU cartel battles for extended periods of time (when losing ofc).