Quote:
Originally Posted by EdNealy
Nice! If you get around to it I'd love to read your thought process on these hands. What were the CO's stats like in the set over set hand?
He was running something like 20/12 1.2 AF 10% 3bet
-He wasn't playing loose enough to have 85 in that spot
-If he had a FD and was trying to realize fold equity, why wouldn't he raise the MP's Cbet? The line I took in this spot was super aggressive and he just insta 3bets me on the flop to an amount that was clear he wanted to GII asap to get the max out of draws. I found almost inconceivable that he was 3betting a FD, for FEq, given his flat call and his relatively tight/passive play to that point.
My line is that I have a set, flopped the nuts, have a FD/Combo draw, or want to take down the pot because CO put out a very weak bet.
Given how strong I was, I just couldn't possibly see him having anything in this spot other than 88, 55, or 67. And even if he did have a pair+GS+FD like 5
6
, which was the absolute bottom of his range as he's 3betting TT+ pre on the button, I was only a 60% favorite.
Ultimately I only had 35% equity vs the nuts, 60% vs his bottom range(which was highly unlikely, and had 1 out vs 88/55.
This was ONLY due to me having bottom set. If I had 55 and he had 88 for instance, I'm obviously shoving because he could easily have 44 in that spot. But bottom set on that board, vs how he played the hand, I just couldn't find much that I could beat at that point and folding seemed to be the proper play.
If he raises the MP Cbet and I 3bet, then I am calling his 4bet shove at that point because I would have committed over 1/3 my stack and he could have Ax spades or a combo draw with that line.