For calling turn to even be remotely considered means I still have no idea what's going on in tournaments If we call 79o on the turn we must be calling like 80%+ of our range on the turn no? And what bluffs do we beat? AQ and Ax flushdraws? We're not even doing that well vs his bluff range and we're crushed by his value range - to me the fold seems trivial Calling QT+ seems sensible

Did he not go from footballer to trader to then become a manager?

Love your ambition Pads makes me feel like a lazy bastard but pretty inspiring. Obviously the first steps are to get as many coaching badges as you can and go from there. U have time on your side 28 is young for a coach even and you played to a fairly high standard.

I admire your ambition, but this dream sounds crazily optimistic. My uncle did it in eight years, but he's probably got more England caps than you.

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I don't know much about the person who you quoted, but if you are good at such things then we suggest that you don't conduct any non-meaningful transaction. There is eight years, and then there is eight years. Trust me, you do NOT want to wager on such a feat. But if one is to do such a thing in respect to the goal, then some caps could help .. but are NOT necessary: make friends with the correct people, not forgetting no name, having money, being kind, and when optimal, mean. View each decision as a discrete moment in time. Because it is. Nothing is as easy or as difficult as it seems, bad nor evil - but your inefficiently efficient mind makes it so.

It is fantastic that you are going to attempt to do this and will be hugely entertaining to follow the journey.

I've been an pro odds compiler for the last 5 years and also play some poker. I've always thought that analysis abilities from top level poker players would be hugely well suited to professional sports. I imagine it is a huge leak in lower league football clubs.

The only thing I would disagree with is your desire to play the long game. I would take absolutely every shortcut available to you and if that is through your wealth so be it. With good planning and decision making I def think this would be the best option, life is short and opportunities in this field are scarce.

Some options available to you are to use your contacts to attempt to talk to Tony Bloom. I think an hour of his time and knowledge would be priceless. His sports betting company values every player in each position and has built a hugely profitable analysis empire. This has also obv been implemented at Brighton (now my second team) who are likely to be a premier league club next season. I would also consider the thoughts of top dfs players that you could presumably meet through your contacts, people like Saahil and Brandon Adams. There's also a couple of good soccer dfs players like redcoat85 and Samalek. If these guys are using reinforcement learning (saahil) then IMO this would be so much more valuable than some FA course that every other wannabe coach is doing. Surely following the system like this won't set you apart from the standard. You become one of the thousands with the same thought processes.

I think the abilities of a manager/coach are hugely overrated when a team is winning and hugely underrated when a team is losing. See Ranieri. The most valuable asset would be analysis of players for recruitment, as well as analysis of opponents from a tactical perspective. Knowing your population imbalances and building a squad to exploit the **** out of them.

Will be following and GL.


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Nice post ^

Great post buddy, thanks for that!

I would assume at this stage, every club in the first couple of tiers has people working on data analysis of players and potential players. Recruitment teams these days are pretty big and are starting to embrace the technology that we have.

Agree that pads should utilise every contact possible to get things done asap.

Do you want to manage a club in the premier league or own one?

A manager can have many different titles and lots of different roles in this day and age.
Manager, Coach, Technical director, Head of football.

If you're looking to manage a team in the premier league, there aren't really any shortcuts. You will need thousands of hours of high-level coaching experience to be a premier league manager.

Bloom almost definitely doesn't deal with the day to day business of the squad and most likely has a team dozens strong that work on the daily running of the squad and the club on a whole. If you get an hour of his time however, i'm sure it would have insane value but not really to do with being a manager.

If you want to own a premier league club, this is a completely different vision and also fraught with a lot of challenges. Bloom has put somewhere in the region of £200m into Brighton and will need a good chunk more for them to be a success in the premier league.

A premier league manager is only one related job title when it comes to running a successful team. If you take Manchester United as an example (because that's who I support) they have somewhere in the region of 60-70 full time non playing staff.

The team includes:

Executive chairman
Vice chairman and director
Managing director
CFO
Commercial director
Ambassadors
half a dozen other directors of varying involvement
Manager
Assistant manager
First team coaches
Head of first team development
Reserve manager, assistant and team
Head of academy and team
Head of recruitment and team
Hundreds of scouts worldwide
Head of performance
Analytics department
Strength and conditioning team
Sport science team

Plus heaps of others i'm probably missing.

As someone who currently works full time in football and is a registered scout with the PFSA, I can see lots of gaps daily in recruiting that you could bring to a smaller club.

I've been at a couple of conferences recently that have had presentations by elite level clubs and some of the stuff they are doing is really interesting. One club has the youth teams analysing their own footage after games, linking clips of the first team and how to improve in various areas. I'm sure lots of others are doing similar things.

I think your best opportunities are going to lie away from managerial roles. Invest in a small semi-pro team and use all your skills learned from poker and bitb to influence the team as positively as possible. You won't be able to be a day to day manager but you could own or be on the board.

If you want to bounce any ideas around, send me a message. I've got lots of ideas and have been working in football on and off for 10 years.

Thanks Nick! Great post.

I guess that's the most important question I have to work out, which I kinda touched on previously, whether owning a club or managing a club is the direction I want to go. Both obviously very very cool positions, but important to work out first of all which makes sense. Will think about that, and read your post again in 1-2 days.

Have been playing quite a bit of poker,boosted 3+ sessions this week with some nice wins and a few deep runs in bigger stuff, biggest score was $8k in Party 530 yetserday. Did a few coaching sessions too that went well and really enjoying both playing and coaching at this exact time.

Pretty interesting spot from our strategy section today

We open mp1 with 27bbs pre itm in tournament to 2.21x, weak reg makes it 5.52 in sb, we call (thoughts?)

Flop j82fd, he checks we? We have 17bbs and pot is 12ish

What hand do we have?

we shoving atc so

Sorry, AJo

Going to stream a full session on Thursday on Party Poker twitch channel, will be speaking a lot about HSMTT strategy and staking in poker.

.

Where did the other bbs go when you start with 27 and call a 5.52bb 3b? Betting 4bb and calling it off regardless.

Checking it back. We don't have much equity to deny against hands we beat and if we get x/jammed on it's a pretty gross spot. When checking we cap our range a lot and allow villain to barrel on future streets with wore.

note: i am recreational and not PRO

i dont think weak regs check a balanced range, more likely they check to checkraise with a range that AJo fares well against (diamonds or even as loose as AKo with a diamond) or check to check call with a range that AJo fares well against (TT-99). dont think we see QQ+ and we block JJ.

so i guess question is how to maximize ev with spr of 1.5 against a sorta transparent good-but-not-great range. the only hands i'm not sure what to do with are worse jacks and times we ourselves have one middling pair (TT,99,77,8x). those usually check and feel transparent/outplayed on turns and rivers.

i kinda want to just jam flop and be unbalanced, figuring that villain is going to have nines, be weirded out, and herocall.

Sb has 22bbs if that wasn't obvious sorry.

12 bb with 17bb behind in small 3bp on middling board here IP I'd go ahead and bet vs. missed c-bet for small sizing 3-4bb. Knowing SB 3b range can easily fold pre though. Despite good pot odds our hand isn't going to perform well vs. a strong linear 3b range at this depth.

Why dont just fold AJo pf to a min3bet OOP is guy is "weak"?

we are in position, my play is to randomize 50% betcalls and check backs.

Good Sunday. Lots of good runs, had big stacks In a lot of tournaments and ended up with a couple FTs and won the new 6max $50k on Party for $11k for decent green.

Spent few hours after session with Elmerixx, apotheosis and romeopro going over some hands which was pretty funny.

Likely playing Tuesday and Thursday again this week.

is the AJo hand v reg or fish makes a huge diff imo? we have tptk and 1.4x pot bet 4.5bbs and snap the mouse and sigh when they check jam and say 'should folded/jammed pre' and call ?

Flat pre. Check flop as we can get our stack in on turn + river comfortably and dont have to protect our hand. He furthermore has overpairs as x/jams and flushdraws as x/jams. So imo no reason to bet into that range on the flop. Most turns shift equities against flushdraws in our favor and we will get value from weaker Jx anyways on turns+rivers.

Whats the turn?

what time and what's your twitch name?