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KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading

10-23-2018 , 09:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 80smiami
Very interesting, definitely will keep an eye on your thread.
Good luck!
Thanks a lot for the support. Really appreciate it!

Quote:
Originally Posted by dairuss86
Is your base rate 6.5% in Norway? Just thinking about it, that seems extra brutal. I've paid well over half my profits in commission @ usually around 4.5%

It's a tough school

Do you pay PC or have strategies to avoid it?

If you're betting a lot of mainstream markets, such as champions league, la liga, premiership - you're probably better off joining smarkets. Liquidity should be fine for such high profile events.

Nice cashes on stars BTW.
Darius, Always smart comments you have.
My base rate is 6%, yes. your 4.5% looks pretty good now, doesnt it? haha However, when I do straight betting like bankbuild I use smarkets for 0% commission or matchbook for 0% commission too, until December at least.

The only reason i use betfair is the software (fairbot) which is super easy to use in comparison to the platform itself, plus liquidity in play is much higher at betfair.

Regarding premium charges, I do not pay.

Thanks a lot again for your feedback!


Quote:
Originally Posted by TomSmeets
Great read this is! I'm deliberating joining WinnerOdds as well, would you recommend to create accounts at multiple bookies? And what is a nice starting amount to start with? Doesn't matter a lot really right, since the odds are between 1.5-4 mostly?

I prefer to stick to Unibet solely, or maybe Betfair as addition but not willing to move money around multiple bookies as I did before with some basketball bets. That can be quite a hassle, time-consuming, risking bans etc. Don't want to put too much time into it but this seems like a nice way of betting, also within the betting strategies you're using.

Good luck!!
Tom, Thanks a lot for your comment, bro
Well, you have to take into consideration that the more bookies you have the more opportunities there will available to you. Not only that but sometimes you have, example, one opportunity in a day but if you only have 1 bookie you are forced to take those odds, while by having several bookmakers, you can get the highest odds available, skyrocketing your returns

As per recommended starting amount I would say 1K is good to start with, it can also be 500 but you have to remember monthly fee is $80-90, right? Regarding odds they get as low as 1.08, so sometimes you are betting 10% of your bank hehe. Again, as any rule for betting/poker, the money you put in is money you afford to lose, right?

In case you want to subscribe, here I leave you a link. I can get you better price
https://www.winnerodds.com/#ViajePa100



Thanks a lot for the support to all of you!!!
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-23-2018 , 11:03 AM
If I decide to signup there I will definitely use your affiliate link, no worries! What would you consider to be the minimum amount of bookies to have? And how much time do you have on average before you get a notification? I know these shortcuts aren't beneficial haha, but just figuring out if I want to put the time needed in there ;-)
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-23-2018 , 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomSmeets
If I decide to signup there I will definitely use your affiliate link, no worries! What would you consider to be the minimum amount of bookies to have? And how much time do you have on average before you get a notification? I know these shortcuts aren't beneficial haha, but just figuring out if I want to put the time needed in there ;-)
I would say there are 3 bookies that get notifications all the time, then you have 4 or 5 that get less notifications but still a bunch and then you have the rest, i would say. I use 10 from which I use them all, but 75% of the bets might be on those top 3 bookies i just mentioned.

Depending on your mail you get faster notifications, i would say but I am on the website constantly refreshing it haha. There are certain times of the days when you pick most bets, like from 7 am to 9 am there are a lot of bets (norwegian time). I also wake up some times at 3 am, since no one is placing bets at that time of the day so odds dont move against you that quickly

Hope this helps
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-24-2018 , 06:21 PM
In this case I will share with you my set up and how I use the screens when trading/playing poker.



I have 2 monitors and one laptop. Basically I have 3 screens, but of course, this is luxury; 1 is more than enough.

Poker: When playing poker I use the main screens. The one on the left for the tables (9 when playing STT, 6 when doing MTT), and then the one one on the right I use for lobbies.

Advantage Playing: Again, the 2 main screens is what i use here. I have the bookmakers/casinos on one side, and then I have OddsMonkey on the other screen. This way I can see the things I do all at once.

CST: Here the 3 screens help a lot. On the laptop I play the match live, on the one screen I have FairBot (trading software), on the other screen I have CST calculator and Excel file for logging.

PMT: On one screen I have FairBot, on the other one I have website with PMT on, plus OddsChecker.

IPT: 3 screens come handy again here. Same as CST, Laptop with live game, one screen with FairBot, the other one with IPT on.

TradeMate and WinnerOdds: Here I have to hav ea bunch of bookmakers open at the same time, so I have one screen with all the bookmakers ordered per tab, and the other screen with TradeMate and/or WinnerOdds on the other tab.

If I just want to lay down or be on the living room, or probably at a coffee shop (never use public internet for trading), then I use the laptop for easy strategies like value bet or a few Poker tables, but never trade on latop the active strategies.

Any questions, just hit me up

Talk soon again!
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-29-2018 , 10:18 AM
I will be posting results tomorrow since I am traveling. Thanks!
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-29-2018 , 03:34 PM
Hi man good luck with your challenge. Can you share some content about betfair traiding ?
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-30-2018 , 03:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ggslab
Hi man good luck with your challenge. Can you share some content about betfair traiding ?
Thanks a lot for the support!

Do you have any specifics on what you would like to know? I am willing to share, yes
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-30-2018 , 04:14 AM
Update #12: 21.10.18 - 28.10.18




Poker: We have been taking shots at tourneys and so far they are going good, winning a couple and going deep in some big ones. However, Sunday was terrible. We played somewhere close to 25 tournaments and the reason we played so many is that we busted super quick in each one of them. Did not make the money in anything
So big drop, but hopefully we make it better the next days.



Advantage Playing: I will keep saying excuses to myself that I make more money in the active strategies when in reality this is the strategy that gives me the most money and in the most steady way so I really need to focus on this strategy more than I have done. So I will quit the "this one is boring" ****
More volume needed.



CST: Picking up again with profits but I need to organize myself a bit better. The thing with CST strategy is that it uses all my bankroll when trading it. So basically, If i use 1000 for one trade I will be looking to make $10-15 which is too little in comparison to using $5000 where I make $50-70. The only disadvantage with this is that I have my roll spread out in bookies too so it is a bit hard to be moving money around. But I will find a way.



PMT: I did leave some trades here at PMT. Doing pretty good lately, making lots of small greens but normally using it for IPT.



IPT: Not going so good. JellyLock small but steady. My own trades are super ****ty. So I will be reducing the amount I use for my own trades. They are proving I am not a good trader? haha maybe variance killing me as usual haha



TradeMate: I am in a bit of dilemma with TradeMate. Since they are a bunch of bets in different sports I find myself limited in almost of bookies I use so max bet for me is something like $5-10 in 70-80% of the bookies I have so It is a lot of work for little money. So I am not sure what I will do here. Plus, I hit a downswing that I have only seen in poker.



WinnerOdds: Super solid strategy. Super nice to see that something is saving my balls at the end of the week. Though, by the time of writing this there was 2 losses which amounted to 10% of the bank i had so let us see how we finish this week.
I am kind of suffering the same as in TradeMate. Getting limited in all but 2-3 bookies which allow me to place big bets. I have to find a way



Bank-Build: No more updates on this strategy. Bad strategy.


2ChanceBuild. I will keep this one in the portoflio since I see more potential than the one mentioned before.



Here is the list of the expenses for the month. This is not precise a monthly fee since I include services that are based on cycle and not a monthly, fee but it gives us an idea.



To summarize the whole challenge, here you get the total graph:




10.08.18 - 28.10.18

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-30-2018 , 05:21 AM
Hey again, you're using PMT solely at Betfair?
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-30-2018 , 09:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomSmeets
Hey again, you're using PMT solely at Betfair?
Hi

Short answer is yes. There are a couple of reasons I trade on a site that charges 6% haha.

Though Smarkets and Matchbook have similar liquidity in terms of volume, I find that liquidity to be more bots that act on movements of odds, while Betfair has more real humans that can make mistakes and take your odds when you ask for prices.
The second reasoning would be the software, FairBot. I find it super easy to use and it works with Betfair.

Of course I would love to do PreKO trading on lower fees site but for now that is my option.

Feel free to ask as much as you want
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-30-2018 , 09:14 PM
Sweet month on the exchanges. It's not easy there, I know
You're thread is motivating me to get back into it and stop being lazy
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
10-31-2018 , 04:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ViajePa100
Thanks a lot for the support!

Do you have any specifics on what you would like to know? I am willing to share, yes
Looking for study materials for beginners . Like first step in trading. Thanks.
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-07-2018 , 03:48 AM
Guys, sorry for the delay. I will explain more on the update.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dairuss86
Sweet month on the exchanges. It's not easy there, I know
You're thread is motivating me to get back into it and stop being lazy
I got really excited when I read the "motivating me" part since that is one of the main reasons I started this.
Let me know if any questions and good luck

Quote:
Originally Posted by ggslab
Looking for study materials for beginners . Like first step in trading. Thanks.
Alright, I can tell you that what I learnt was basically videos on YouTube and reading on forums but I can make it a bit easier for you.
Depending on your risk tolerance one strategy would be better suited for you than the other one.

Assuming you know nothing about betfair, I leave you a video I just found online explaining the exchanges.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gYK0EhxP78

After you understand it, you can look at this guy who explains a bunch of strategies in a simple manner.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsT...i-t466hXdTuk9A

These are one of the easiest strategies for me to do, PreMatch
https://www.youtube.com/user/Tradingfootballtv/videos

And then I have the CST which is the one i feel more confident with but I have no video but here is the site
https://correctscorestrading.com/

I can tell you more if needed, bro

Have a good one and good luck

BTW: All this is football
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-07-2018 , 05:17 AM
Update #13: 28.10.18 - 06.11.18 (added 2 more days since I did not post on time)



I apologize for not posting on time. Reason behind it is I was taking a little break visiting girlfriend. Now we work on our strategies and make the most out of it.

Poker: Did not play much last week so almost no update

Advantage Playing: Almost no offers taken. I am experiencing a blank with this strategy which I have to fix. This week I will get better at it.

CST: Did 3 or 4 trades but one of them was ****ty so the other trades were recovery.

PMT: Surprisingly the last 7-8 trades I have done are in green and good green, so I will revert my thinking haha. I will try to use this one more often.

IPT: Pretty much same as last week but I did manage to book a win yesterday so it is green

TradeMate: Did not use it at all. I am having troubles with this strategy since I am finding myself limited in most bookies. So I think I have to rethink this one.

WinnerOdds: A bit of a setback this week. I think it is the first red week. We were up to €1500 profit but unfortunately we stepped down a bit.

Double-Chance: Nothing but a good run of cards. Since I was traveling I did not pay much attention to the strategy but I did manage to get a good run of matches.

Again, I have to apologize for the inconsistency with the posts.
I might be absent again at the end of November because of futsal competition but I will let you know.

Let us make money this week!

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-07-2018 , 05:05 PM
Can you share which bookmakers are limiting you ?
Have you already looked at asian bookies ?
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-07-2018 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by damien77
Can you share which bookmakers are limiting you ?
Have you already looked at asian bookies ?
Reason they are limiting me is because I have been careless with the the movement of the money, i believe. Constantly moving money in and out of the account might have caught the attention. In addition to this, well, the different sports that trademate offers rings a bell to the bookies too.

Betfair
Betsson
Bet365 (the most important one)
Betsafe
Betstars ($25 max)
Interwetten (ridiculous amounts)
Bwin (ridiculous amounts)
888Sport

WilliamHill (Banned me completly)

I do use pinnacle and ****** but still, the amount of matches on these sites are not as many as on the above mentioned bookies

Hope this helps
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-12-2018 , 06:56 AM
Update #14: 06.11.18 - 11.11.18



Back on track, guys. Motivation is there just having issues dedicating time to the challenge. December coming in so family and friends want to be around. I guess sometimes people do not understand you have fixated a goal and you gonna achieve it no matter what hehe. Of course, I love to be around family and friends but I want to dedicate more time to the challenge.

Having said that, here we go with the summary:

Poker: Better week. Even though we did not play/run good live this week, we achieved good results yesterdays as sundays are always online tournaments day hehe

Advantage Playing: Better offers this week but still struggling to find more welcome bonuses so focusing on small offers.

CST: CST has been pretty slow since my bank is pretty spread out. With the changes I made, I will be able to have more available

PMT: Couple of games went bad for me and made me go red this week. Still looking pretty nice. Trying to learn properly how the market moves and what prices are right.

IPT: Good week this one. Only with Jelly trades we produced more than $200. So things are looking good there.

TradeMate: I decided to pause TradeMate since I am getting limited at most sites so I prefer to use winnerodds for now that has a different staking plan and is only one sport. So i would think limitations would be different here. So no more TradeMate for the time being.

WinnerOdds: Pretty fustrrating couple of weeks. Both weeks we have hit the €1500 mark and back down to €1100-1200. We have hit a bit of a ceiling that we have to break. Lets make it happen this week.

Double-Chance: Looking good now, winning most bets. Had torino drawn or won, we would have been done by now but that is football, i guess.

Things are looking pretty slow but the important part is that we are proving to make money so let us keep it going.

Let us hit 6K this week!

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-13-2018 , 02:17 PM
Going really nice, congrats. I've started back myself - lost my external hard drive containing hours of data so just picking the low hanging fruit for now. Betting cricket not football though.

Now you're running out of books do you think you will start value betting a bit more on the exchanges for yourself? You must have some specialist knowledge of Norwegian football or something? I find that kind of insight is priceless.
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-16-2018 , 04:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dairuss86
Going really nice, congrats. I've started back myself - lost my external hard drive containing hours of data so just picking the low hanging fruit for now. Betting cricket not football though.

Now you're running out of books do you think you will start value betting a bit more on the exchanges for yourself? You must have some specialist knowledge of Norwegian football or something? I find that kind of insight is priceless.
Yes, it is going, even though I still see it a bit slow. Hopefully it kicks up soon.

Really sad you lost your HD but never too late to start again.
Would be nice to know about cricket, if you want to share some of your knowledge.

I do not know about the value betting part. I might have to take actions on what to bet on and how careful I am and so on. I have to decide what to do now hehe

And actually I do not know much about Norwegian football since I find it boring but def it is a total advantage to know about it since it can be a niche market. You are right on that

If you can, share your results/journey form time to time here
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-20-2018 , 07:01 PM
Update #15: 11.11.18 - 18.11.18



As you know, December is a super busy month. Well, November looks like it too. I have been with a family a lot and have not traded much, still, we did manage some good results. Hopefully they continue

Poker: The graph for poker looks a bit swingy because of live poker. I am playing €1/2 so when i lose i lose a bunch and when i win I win a bunch hehe. Plus I am playing more tournaments now and sometimes we do not even cash, or better yet, we win a tourney but still end the day in minus

Advantage Playing: Super slow. I have not payed much attention to offers and well... not much to say about it but to continue working.

CST: Super slow because of the international break. We did manage to place 2-3 trades but no luck.

PMT: Doing some trades here. Generally, the profit I make in PMT, I use for IPT but still, sometimes I do leave it like this and that is when i record it as PMT trade.

IPT: Big win on the Germany v Netherlands game when laying Germany at 80th minute. Jolly trades have been working wonders. The guys are super good and now starting with other sports too. I will get more in depth about it at the end of the month.

WinnerOdds: Coming back from a 2-3 weeks losing/break even streak. Let us keep going up.

Double-Chance: Only one bet during this week and resulted on a win. So we are close to closing the cycle soon, hopefully.

Not much else to say but to celebrate our goal of making $6K the past week. I will try to make as much as possible this week to make it to 7K but I might have a futsal tournament during the weekend so maybe not trading.

Good luck!!!

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-22-2018 , 05:59 AM
Hi again,

I know I sound a bit sour but some justice must be made.
Bookmakers are creating an environment where they destroy people's life. They only accept, and even increase bet limit sizes, for loosing players. That means that if you are losing they will welcome you and even create more incentives for you to keep losing, creating an addiction.
On the other hand, if you are winning, they will limit you, ban you, take your money, etc.

So until what point will they keep afloat like this? Should we do something about it or should we just be happy with whatever decision they make for us?

Of course one understands that, as a business their goal is to increase profit for shareholders but at what cost? Making people miserable and destroying families because of someone's addiction?

I find it unfair for all of us who bet on bookmakers to be filtered this way and something must bet done quick.

Sorry for the bitching but I am sure most of you agree with this one.

Good luck
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-22-2018 , 11:08 PM
All those firms are licenced by the ukgc. They're as bent as 9 bob note.

The Commission's stated aims are "to keep crime out of gambling, to ensure that gambling is conducted fairly and openly, and to protect children and vulnerable people".


Their mission statement - it's a ****ing joke.
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-26-2018 , 07:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dairuss86
All those firms are licenced by the ukgc. They're as bent as 9 bob note.

The Commission's stated aims are "to keep crime out of gambling, to ensure that gambling is conducted fairly and openly, and to protect children and vulnerable people".


Their mission statement - it's a ****ing joke.
You totally got it right. So i will have to take actions and be shifting towards more strategies that involve exchanges because this is a joke as you said hehe

Here I go with the update, by the way
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-26-2018 , 07:41 AM
Update #16: 18.11.18 - 25.11.18



This weekend I had a futsal tournament in the capital and I could not trade much. I did place some bets though.
I will be probably posting some videos later

There are a couple of updates I wanted to share too but I will start with posting the results first.

Poker: Oh poker... I will be posting some videos and explaining some hands so you know the kind of player I am and why these results are totally absurd. The same story as every poker player has: "I am running super bad, on a downswing" only that mine has lasted more than normal. Still, I do not want to be just whining, I will show you in future posts.

Anyway, Horrible week.

Advantage Playing: Something weird happened this week. NordicBet said my last day to claim my free bets was 25th of November but no time of the day at all, and obviously I assumed 23:59 of the same day the bets expire. To my surprise I log in at around 13:00 to only see my free bets have expired. So basically that made me lose money.
Will be hunting new offers this week

PMT: No PMT for me last week

IPT: No IPT either

WinnerOdds: WinnerOdds is experiencing either a downswing or is correcting from the good run I had earlier. Not only that but I feel I am winning the bets on the bookies I am limited at ($2-3 bets) and losing the bookies I am not limited yet ($100 bets). Hopefully it will turn back again

Double-Chance: The only consolation for the week winning all bets we placed and making us lower our losses for the week.

I need to point out something in general regarding EV. When things are not going your way, Poker in my case this week, you tend to make more -EV decisions (calling poor hands, shoving spots you should not, etc).
On the other hand when running above EV, you want to lower your variance and avoid losing big, in my case Double-Chance. I stopped earning $250-300 dollars this week because I lowered the amount I should have bet just because I did not want to lose anymore, totally forgetting about the plan.

I feel this is a mistake many of us make.
Lesson is: Stick to the plan and let EV make its work. It all will work out

Adjustments for the following weeks:
Poker: I will only play tournaments on Sundays. Fridays and Saturdays I will play Live cash. During the week I will, either play STTs or not play at all.
Advantage Playing: Focus more on this strategy.
CST: I will take money out of most bookies and place 50% or more of the bank for this strategy. It is so consistent that I forgot consistency is better than big swings, in my case.
PMT: I will work more on this one too since it is pretty accurate.
IPT: I am developing an idea regarding the corners market, so I will look to get into this one too.

That is all for now guys. Thanks for reading and being part of this though journey.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠
KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote
11-29-2018 , 04:39 AM
Traded PSG v Liverpool yesterday, Losing one because they scored too quickly.
Leeds v Reading on Tuesday and a huge lose.

We are struggling for the past 2 weeks. Hopefully things turn around soon.

In the meantime, a quick sneak peak of what I do in my "free time"

KtoK - Poker/Betfair Trading Quote

      
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