I just learnt i owe around $5 000 to a staking stable I used to play at. I had been away from the tables due to personal struggle and stopped playing for a bit. When I was ready to play again, I got denied the opportunity (understandably since I had been away so long).

In order to tackle this I decided to create a challenge where I will be:
- Playing Poker (STT)
- Advantage Playing
- Betfair Trading
- Value Betting
(The time-frame for this is 12 months so I will have to make around $4 000 a month. Starting August 10th - EPL starts)

About me: I am 26, Venezuelan living in Norway at the moment, working part time as an Asset Manager assistant. This is the first time I do something like this but I feel motivated because of many people saying making money is hard and boring.

I used to play 180 man at PS, I then changed to 9max sng. Doing pretty well but i decided to study and stopped playing that much.
2 years ago I played EPT in Malta by winning package online.
I then changed to betfair trading at the beginning of this year and this is why I am mixing the 2 worlds

Here I leave you with some of my results when I used to play more often






The whole idea of this thread is to prove that, with a bit of discipline and organization, goals can be achieved.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

Nothing's Impossible!!!

Update#1: 10.08.18-12.08.12



Ill try to post on a weekly basis, so next post will be next monday.

I will take the opportunity to let you know the tools I use for this challenge.

Poker: I mainly play STTs, €10
Advantage Playing: Matched Betting is the main task here. Some arbitrage included.
CST: A system called Correct Score Trading, where you trade 3 different outcomes based on mathematical value. (football)
PMT: Trade various events before they start based on discrepancies.
IPT: Using a tool that allows you to see when a match is having several oportunities to score, I back or lay events, while In-Play, that I think have EV.
TradeMate: TradeMate is the tool I use for Value betting.
538: Value betting based on my own research.
Bank-Build: Betting a high portion of my bank on events that are super likely to occur.
Horses: A tipster that shouts out B2L and L2B tips every day.

In future posts I will explain more in detail each of these.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days

This is an interesting idea for a poker blog.

What sort of strategies are you using for pre-event trading on Betfair? I tested a few strategies myself on football, tennis and horse racing but they didn't work.

I am sorry for the late reply.

I am going to be posting the strategies I use after the weekend so I can post it together with results.

Update#1: 12.08.18-19.08.12



The goal for the week was $1K and we did not make it. However we did achieve 80% of it.

In this list you will find the tools used during this challenge:

Poker: the format I am playing is: STT 5-max, €10 buy-in, at Unibet.

Advantage playing: basically what I do is clear bonuses at casinos and bookmakers. For this strategy i use this tool: https://www.oddsmonkey.com/raflp.aspx?raf=tVJAAO

Betfair Trading: CST stands for ]https://correctscorestrading.com. I am using a system developed by CST, which consists in finding value by backing and laying the low scores.
Betfair Trading: PMT stands for http://www.prematchtrading.com?a=9371. Using an amazing tool in which you can see the discrepancies between the current odds and what odds should be in an efficient market. Amazing tool.
Betfair Trading: IPT stands for http://www.inplaytrading.com?a=8139. This tool measures the pressure of each team in a given match, using stats like shots on target, off target, possession, etc. if high pressure, more likely a goal comes in.

Value Betting: TradeMate. These guys are fellows Norwegians. What they do is take advantage of the lag in soft bookies to adjust odds, in respect to sharper bookmakers' movement, and display it for you to take a +EV action, just like in poker. http://tradematesports.com/?ref=dggz...tvYgKftP39BBN2
Value Betting: 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tions/matches/ here you can find an estimate of the possibilities of XvsY football match. Then I take these and compare it to the odds on a given match and, if odds are greater than the possibilities given by 538, I take a position. I am a bit hesitant on whether or not I will continue with this strategy.

Bank-Build: a system in which you bet 33% of a your bank each selection shouted out by these guys until your bank has doubled. I will come back later with a link to their site.

Horses: from the same developers as CST, https://horseinplay.co.uk/ shouts out tips for B2L and L2B horses, almost every day.


https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Update #3: 19.08.18-26.08.18



As usual, the goal for the week is $1K and we only achieved 20% of it, super far from goal and the reasons for this might be the following:

Poker: I played super little volume. Either I was burnt out from the whole day trading and dint have energy for poker at night or I was with family.

Advantage Playing: I decided to quit casino bonuses for a while until I earn enough so I can withstand variance. As you can see I lost the whole amount in the casino this week.
When it comes to Matched Betting, I couldn't clear any more bonuses since one of the sites doesn't allow me to withdraw that easily so i am in war with them hehe. The issue here is that all my bets landed on the bookie and not on the exchange.

CST: Not many opportunities this weekend + I made a huge mistake with costed me $100. So if you guys are interested in this system, please ask me what this mistake was hehe. This was the only red number since start.

PMT: pretty nice to see an increase using this tool. Same issue as in poker. Not enough volume.

IPT: Variance ate me this time. Matches with 20+ shots on target and super high pressure could not score a goal.

TradeMate: I am having an issue with this strategy since I require way more bookmakers in order to achieve volume and I am only playing with one. So I will have to make an adjustment.

538: As mentioned previously I decided to rest this one. A known/smart trader happened to suffer the same and he was using a staking plan even more careful than mine. He wrtote something about it: https://plus.google.com/+JimMakosCom/posts/VwGNSDakNJr.

Bank-Build: First cycle ended and we double our starting stake of $1000 by winning the first 10 tips they gave out. Cycle 2 started yesterday with one loss and one win so we are in a recovery phase now.

Horses. Lastly but not least we have the horses. Same issue as in everything. Not enough volume.

So the lesson learned is that I will have to sacrifice some things in order to work harder and keep this up.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Update #4: 26.08.18-02.09.18




Since we are closing the month of August, I will present a graph for each strategy used and their progress for the month:

Poker: Still little volume and we would be working on putting more hours on the table. I included 2 live sessions here.



Advantage Playing: As mentioned last week, we quit casino bonuses until we build our bankroll a bit more. We are only focusing on odds opportunities.



CST: Not many opportunities this month. EPL started with not much liquidity on the correct score markets. I am not sure if traders are tired from the world cup or maybe transitioning to other exchanges, I do not know.



PMT: Not much volume even though I did pick some nice trades this weekend.



IPT: Still variance playing a big role on the results but this most be the strategy with the most variance on my portfolio, thats why I keep my stakes low here



TradeMate: Since last update, I had a meeting with one of the founders of TradeMate in which we spoke about the settings an parameters recommended. I didnt have much volume this week but looking forward to try them next month.
Note. Image taken directly from their site



538: Same as casinos. I left this strategy for reasons mentioned on the previous post.
From next Update on you, wont see it on the summary.



Bank-Build: These tips are working amazing. Only one lost match in the last 17 selections. As mentioned on the previous post, bank dictated for this strategy, $1000, already doubled itself in just 21 days. Amazing!



Horses. I have not mentioned yet that I have 2 strategies here, the popular B2L and L2B.

B2L


L2B



Lastly, as requested by one follower, I will list the monthly fee paid for the services used. Take into account I started on the 10th of August and the prices listed are for 1 full month.




To conclude the month, here you have a graph for the weeks played during the month of August:

10.08.18 - 02.09.18



https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

I would appreciate it a lot, if you guys game me some feedback. What you would like to see and what you would not. Maybe it is too much information of maybe too little.

Please let me know. Trying to get better

Thanks!!!

I should lurk less. I would definitely be interested in hearing more about exchange trading strats as well any work you need to put in in order to avoid being gubbed by the bookies. I would've thought betting slow moving lines would get you limited in no time?

While it is true that you say, there are a couple of tricks to make sure you last longer:

https://www.oddsmonkey.com/blog/matc...-being-gubbed/

When it comes to exchange strategies, I use mostly CST strat from https://correctscorestrading.com/

Basically you bet on 3 correct scores in a way where you are covered in case a goal goes in, and while no goal, you are making money.

My main pre match trading strat must be http://www.prematchtrading.com.
They tell you what odds should be on correct score and overs given match odds.
I also do news trading. Waiting for the money to come in 1 hour pre KO.

And then you have IPT trading from http://www.inplaytrading.com
They have a tool which measures pressure on a match so a goal is more likely to come.

Hope this helps a bit.
Just ask if anything. Happy to help.

Update #4: 02.09.18-09.09.18



This past week was the laziest one of the 5 so far, plus a couple of mistaken that I will explain in the details.

Poker: I played a better volume this week, however, we ended a bit bad since I decided to play some WCOOP tourneys which didn't end up pretty good. STT wise, variance was far from our side hehe.

Advantage Playing: One of the biggest mistakes came in here. Early in the week I made the mistake of betting on the bookie and not covering on the exchange which saw me lose $80.
The other mistake was that my exchange ran out of money and I didn't have more money to cover some bets, so I decided to cross bet between bookies.
What I did was to dutch U1.5, O2.5, and 1-1, only losing witch score 2-0 and 0-2. Well that is what happened in the Denmark game. So we lost $200 here.

CST: Not one trade this week. This strategy depends on liquidity on the CST, and games this week did not have the liquidity needed.

PMT: Few bets here. Markets were not behaving the same cuz of the international break.

IPT: Variance ate me this time (again). No scores at all.

TradeMate: Much better, starting to recover from the downside. We are close to break even now.

WinnerOdds: I was supposed to test this strategy for a month but I decided to include it at once since I liked their approach, their strategy, so i will be looking to use this more.

Bank-Build: Nothing going on this week. International break.

Horses. And well. they did not perform good at all this week, losing a huge $300+.

In order to fix all this, I will sit today before trading and organize my time better and put more boundaries.

Thanks for reading

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

it does - cheers

Update #6: 09.09.18-16.09.18



First red week since we strated

Poker: This week I have experienced a really really bad downswing. While keeping amount of sng played high, unfortunately variance is being in the complete opposite direction. Got to keep it up.

Advantage Playing: We finally managed to get money out of the sites they were trapped at hehe. We have to find more offers now.

CST: Better week when it comes to opportunities but still missed a couple of chances were we could have been in the market.

PMT: Disaster. Many bets went the opposite side of what i thought so negative here as well.

IPT: Some big wins, some big losses too. Hanging in there.

TradeMate: Bad week for TradeMate. I am running $400 under EV. I should have won $300 if things were accurate but instead we are -90.

WinnerOdds: I might put more money into this strategy. Things are looking pretty promising after just 2 weeks. I will give it another 2 weeks before making a decision though.

Bank-Build: Crazy week with Inter losing 0-1 and Roma drawing 2-2 when they were ahead 2-0 in the first half. A big setback here but we are trying to come back.

Horses. Horses performed a bit better but still I did not put much volume into it.

This upcoming week I will take a couple of days for a break since girlfriend is coming to town, so I expect volume to be a bit lower but this month is looking a bit difficult.


Thanks for reading

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Update #7
As mentioned I took this week free to dedicate time to family

I will be posting again next Monday

Thanks a lot

Update #8: 23.09.18-30.09.18



I think I will present, at the end of each month, all the graphs for the main strategies.

Poker: This month we played little poker. 9 sessions of STTs and 2 sessions of cash live. We have been running pretty good on those live sessions while running horrible online. I cant show a graph of EV since Unibet doesnt allow me to use a tracker but im sure im miles ahead on EV vs actual profit.



Advantage Playing: The offer I am trying to clear is taking longer than expected because I got limited, so I cant place bets of big amounts thus i need to bet several matches that are not easy to find with positive expectation. We are on track to clear it by next week and jump onto the next ones.



CST: We managed to find 12 opportunities this month which is good since opportunities have not been showing so much. However I am playing with half the bank I started with since I had to move money for the other strategies. I will find a way to make this better.



PMT: I started a new strategy which consists of trading the news. It started pretty good but then it turned the other way so I think I am doing wrong things hehe. I will stick to basics again



IPT: I think we are running pretty bad with this strategy so I will take it down a notch. I subscribed for a new serbice, Jolly Lock, which I will include here. I will let you know next month how that is going



TradeMate: Since that meeting I had with one of the founders, results have been way better but still we are running way under EV. So hopefully things turn around soon.

Note. Image taken directly from their site



WinnerOdds: I told you when I started with winner odds that, if I liked the strategy I will up my amount used for it. So we will up the whole amount with 500 more and see how we perform. If we end up on the positive side again I will up the amount again. Anyway, the strategy has proven to be pretty consistent. Recommended.



Bank-Build: Since being amazing to losing almost all the profits. It all started the first bet of the 2nd cycle with Besiktas losing a game where they dominated the whole match. Then Inter lost to parma, Roma drawing to Chievo, Barcelona drawing to Girona, Bayer Munich drawing to Augsburg, Barcelona, again, drawing to Bilbao, Lyon losing to Nice. So as you can see a bunchhhhh of matches that one could say "WHAT, HOW, Is that possible?". Well it is and we are looking pretty bad here hehe

Let us see if things turn around.



2ChanceBuild. This is a new a strategy from the same guys as BankBuild which I like better. Instead of going for the win only, it goes for the 1X result. So win or draw wins me the bet. so far we have had 18 bets but it started pretty bad. We are back to even now. Let us give it a but of time to prove its potential.



Horses. Well, Horses... The main strategy is looking horrible at the moment. So I am considering the chance of dumping this strategy since, it takes time and it is not showing much profit for me lately. It is true that I do not trade all the tips and maybe that is why but it is crazy that I am losing the ones I do trade hehe. Let us give them more time too.





Here is the list of the expenses for the month. This is not precise a monthly fee since I include services that are based on cycle and not a monthly, fee but it gives us an idea.



To summarize the whole challenge, here you get the total graph:



10.08.18 - 30.09.18

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

I would advise against the so called "bank build" bets. There is next to no edge betting on mainstream football. Betting across multiple leagues is likely impossible in the long run. I think the markets are exposed from every angle, commission is a
joke and you also have to factor in things like inside info. Therefore it is imprudent, to say the least, to risk the most £££ on these wagers. It's kind of like an inverse of the Kelly criterion.

That being said, I'm enjoying the read and wish you all the best!!

Wow, this is so nice, Dairuss86, I appreciate your advice a lot and yes, I am considering that option too. What I think I will do from next cycle on is decrease my bank size dedicated to these strategies since I am doing better when it comes to trading the matches.

Thanks again for your advice, I really appreciate any advice I can get from you guys.

Have a good day and keep them coming hehe

Update #9: 30.09.18-07.10.18




The week started pretty promising but I did make a lot of mistakes. I am using a couple of strategies with a bigger bank that I should due to variance so I will be adjusting a couple of things:

Poker: Downswing continues!!! I am losing a bunch of 70/30, 60/40 situations and it is frustrating. However this is poker and I have to put in the volume. I do have to mention that I have been playing live a bit and we have 5/6 green sessions so far. So hopefully that good run continues.

Advantage Playing: As i told you previously, I got limited at the bookie I was doing matching betting, so it was way harder to turnover the required amount. We did clear it 2 days ago so we are ready to move onto the next offer.

CST: Only 3 trades this week. Not many opportunities or no liquidity in the opportunities that we saw, a bad combination for this strategy. I am going to put more attention into this one since it is one of the only steady strategies in our portfolio.

PMT: This week I use the majority of the green I got pre-match to trade in-play with IPT. This is something I will be doing more often. I am not sure If, example, I get 50 green on PMT and use it on IPT and make 50 more, post to you guys +50 on PMT and +50 on IPT, or If I should just post IPT +100. Let me know if you can

IPT: Not so good of a week either but I do have some news for you. I enrolled in JellyLock's webinars so I will be trading them for a couple fo weeks before I make a decision.

TradeMate: Finally things looking better which is super good. The gap between Profit line and EV is still $300 but it is narrower than before. Hope this continues.
Adjustment: I will be putting $500 more into this strategy.

WinnerOdds: So far, amazing tool. It has returned us over €500 in a little below 400 bets, which is crazy if you think about our starting roll of €1K
I did put €500 more last week and I will be looking to put 500 more by end of month if things continue to look good.

Bank-Build: Super volatile strategy. We did save ourselves a big red by not betting on Bayern Munich against Borussia m'gladbach last weekend. Bayern was struggling a lot and they were not playing so good. I thought their price was too low against a team which is strong and good at football. Bayern ended up losing 0-3.
I think we have dedicated too much money to this strategy so, instead of dropping it what I will do is this:
Adjustment. Half starting bank for this strategy. We will use €500 instead so we lower our variance. Same will apply to 2Chance-Build which is suffering from the same problem as Bank-Build

Horses. I am sure this strategy is profitable but for now I am dropping it. I can't dedicate time to so many strategies and, even though this does not require much time, it does add stress when things are not going our way.
Adjustment: Drop strategy for now.


The idea behind all these adjustments is to reduce stress and variance and add more time to my agenda to dedicate to strategies that are performing better, CST for example, or AdvantagePlaying.
Hopefully things continue going good or they get even better.


Thanks for reading

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

€1000 in 1 month!!!

1 month ago I dictated €1K of my bankroll to WinnerOdds and 1 month after these are the results:

https://www.winnerodds.com/#ViajePa100


classic car poems

Update #10: 07.10.18-14.10.18




Yet another positive week which is the aim of the challenge. It is a shame to see Poker is having such a bad variance in the past month or so. On the other side of the spectrum one can see the importance of diversification. While poker, some of the betfair trading, and the "build" strategies present the higher variance of the portfolio; one can see the lower variance strategies like value betting and advantage playing performing really well.

Another point to consider is the international break this past week. Really annoying because it presents little opportunities for most of the strategies.


Poker: More of the same, guys. As any poker player will tell you, volume is super important when experiencing downswings. Let us just hope things turn around again.

Advantage Playing: I did little to nothing on advantage playing this week. Reason is the international break, providing me little opportunities for match betting. I decided to use the bank for other strategies.

CST: Only 1 opportunity in the entire week and was a losing one due to an error
Good leagues are coming back to normal calendar.

PMT: As mentioned before, in the trading log there are only a couple of trades made for PMT, but in reality there is like $30-40 more on it that I have used for IPT.

IPT: Some of my own trades not looking as good as JellyLock's trades which are doing pretty good so far. Good to see things turning green here.

TradeMate: Really happy now with TradeMate. Performing better each time. So definitely key for this strategy is volume. We have a little over 1100 bets which is still pretty little. Let us keep it up

WinnerOdds: With 450 bets (recommended 1000), we are experiencing a huge positive variance, it seems. Averaging €25 per day with a yield of 7.13%. In other words. CRAZY returns hehe. We will be looking to put €500 more by end of month.

Bank-Build: No bets at all due to international break.

Horses. No trades.

By now you should have noticed that we are narrowing a bit our portfolio with the intention of only using what we are comfortable with.
Let me know if you would like to see another strategy or feel free to comment on my strategies. I appreciate a lot your feedback. Thanks for that.


Thanks for reading

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

For those of you trying to pursue the same path I am taking, I want to make your journey more pleasant and less stressful.
Try to avoid the following bookmakers:

Interwetten:
- They allow you to put money in their site with skrill/neteller but for withdrawals they require you to use bank transfer which increases the fees you have to pay.
- I had not even place the first bet when I was limited already. I think max bet i have put on their site is $4 with average being $1

Betboro: Same issue as Interwetten when it comes to withdrawal, and takes ages to get money to your account.

Will keep you updated!!!

Update #11: 14.10.18-21.10.18



Pretty busy week, planning ahead. I have been a bit confused with regards to my strategies and I need more organisation with them. So the aim for this week would be to get organised.
As one of our followers said: " There is next to no edge betting on mainstream football". We now can see the effects of it.


Poker: Just until 9 hours ago we were down €400-500 for the week with out poker strategy. Things were not going good, running super bad still on the sit n goes and live not working as planned, but... we decided to have an MTT session yesterday. Sundays are holy days for poker players. These were the results:



We made top 100 in 2 tournaments yesterday.
22 Mini Sunday Million: 95/8726
Bounty Builder Series 136:45/16635

Would have been nice to make FT in one at least

Advantage Playing: Things look pretty slow here and this one of the focuses this week. I am not researching enough. So we will step it up a bit

CST: Bad week for this strategy since the almost-impossible happened, 2 goals in less than 1 minute. Wolves match ****ed us a bit and brought down our green week.

PMT: Not posting much here unless it is a big movement I catch but profit from PMT I am using for IPT.

IPT: Couple of trades did not go my way and well, I guess that is the nature of volatile strategies.

TradeMate: This strategy is a complete roller coaster. I will be posting graph next week but the figure is that I have big gap between EV and profit line.
After 1300 bets I am at -20 for profit line and EV line is at +780. So.... you guys tell me what is happening and I quit complaining haha.

WinnerOdds: One of the only strategies in my portfolio I am in love with. Rough week though. There was a point where out bank was up to €2750 in the early week and next day it dropped to €2350, but we ended up in positive this week too.

Bank-Build: Let us just not discuss this strategy anymore. Out of portfolio from next week on.

Lean, I think is the term for minimizing waste while maximizing productivity. That is what we will do. We are using too much time in strategies that do not provide much benefit. So we will keep working hard.


Thanks for reading

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Very interesting, definitely will keep an eye on your thread.
Good luck!

Is your base rate 6.5% in Norway? Just thinking about it, that seems extra brutal. I've paid well over half my profits in commission @ usually around 4.5%

It's a tough school

Do you pay PC or have strategies to avoid it?

If you're betting a lot of mainstream markets, such as champions league, la liga, premiership - you're probably better off joining smarkets. Liquidity should be fine for such high profile events.

Nice cashes on stars BTW.

Great read this is! I'm deliberating joining WinnerOdds as well, would you recommend to create accounts at multiple bookies? And what is a nice starting amount to start with? Doesn't matter a lot really right, since the odds are between 1.5-4 mostly?

I prefer to stick to Unibet solely, or maybe Betfair as addition but not willing to move money around multiple bookies as I did before with some basketball bets. That can be quite a hassle, time-consuming, risking bans etc. Don't want to put too much time into it but this seems like a nice way of betting, also within the betting strategies you're using.

Good luck!!