Update #17: 25.11.18 - 02.12.18



Hi again,

You might have noticed already my bad run because of my lack of comments. This past 2 weeks have been the toughest challenge inside this challenge. Let us analyze each strategy a bit.


Poker: I am playing super good actually. I have been discussing hands and running hands on ev calculator and most of them I am ahead or playing the hand super good. However I am losing a bunch. I am bubbling a lot, barely getting in the money, losing 70/30 and 80/20 like crazy, etc. I know each poker player have been through this but it feels right now like I am the unluckiest good poker player. I will be posting some hands and, maybe have to drop poker from the portfolio.



Advantage Playing: I am not finding as many offers as I would like. I am lacking discipline in this strategy since each offer is like $5 or $10 and I do not want to use my time on this small amounts, but if you look at the graph. it is going only upwards



CST: I am not findign many matches with big liquidity. Somehow I feel liquidity is dropping on betfair. And, to my surprise, the ones I have traded have had goals in like the first 5 minutes, making my trade a losing one or break even one.



PMT: Not going good, guys. Markets are acting super stupid like pushing down a score for the sake of it just to realize they made a mistake and pushing it back again with 1 min left to KO. It has been hard to trade PMT these days.



IPT: Big revelation haha... I have traded every day last week and guess what? I have come on the red every day. Every decision I make, the opposite happens and just at about the time i make the decision haha.
So i am not sure how things will turn around



WinnerOdds: Same story as last week. I cant get to pass the €1300 profit mark. Every time I touch it i lose one big bet. And I am virtually limited at every bookmaker which makes it harder now.



Double-Chance: About the only strategy that made profit. It is looking strong so let us hope it continues.



The first 2 weeks streak on the red. It is looking pretty depressive and frustrating because I know I am doing things right. I guess I just have to keep going until I overcome this wall the variance always seems to put on me or I just bust everything.



Thanks for reading, guys and sorry for being so depressive in my writing.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Update #18: 02.12.18 - 09.12.18



Getting better!
We have had some off days because of December and we will have even more days haha but still, we will try as hard as we can to make it as a normal month.

Poker: Did not play almost at all. Will come back to it this week.

Advantage Playing: Same as poker, Almost nothing.

PMT: Some good results but very few still.

IPT: Very good lately, getting some good greens!

WinnerOdds: Had a setback with winnerodds because payment was delayed so i did not bet much on it.

Double-Chance: Almost all matches have been won but one, so things are going good

Lets keep trying, things are looking better

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Hi guys,

I need help with this one.
I did not find the hand history so I had to improvise.

This the FT of a tourney where 1st gets €2500 and 9th gets €200.
Hand in quesiton is the very next hand after the one in the picture



So i am in bb with 650K and villian is on CO with 580K. blinds 17.5/35K.
Guy open shoves from CO for 580 and I am on BB with AQo. I know already the answer of many and saying I am just wasting time by posting this hand but... is it really a so straightforward call?

I decided to run it on equilab just for curiosity and I gave him, according to his open jam of 16-17bb (I saw his graph and he is winning player)

- 22+ up until JJ
- AJs, AQ and AKo since I expect AKs to open/shove. I did not include AT and below because I do not think a good player is open shoving that stack with AT, , maybe im wrong.
- KQs might be able to sqz in here.
- AA, KK, QQ. These hands do not open jam so they are out of the question.
So I am left with this:



Which it is the expected, to be a bit worse than a flip. But I am not sure what opinion of the rest of you is.

Do I really have to flip here or can I have a better spot?

By the way, If someone is running as bad as me, please let me know and We can bet my roll for this challenge. Pretty much doubt there is someone with worse Profit/EV line ratio.

Thanks a lot for the help, appreciate it

First of all you should run it with HRC/ Icmizer. Villain range could have some ATs, AJo. If he is also shoving some KQs and KJs i think this should be a call. It depends also if it's a fishy table and you could find better spots in the future. The payjumps from 9 to 2 also counts.

Thanks a lot.
I will run it with ICMizer tomorrow morning.
regarding the table, green and red are winning players, rest is recreational.

I feel cheated cuz that is the first deep run I have in years. I have been running horrible for a loooooongggg time

So i did run it on ICMzer and this is the result:

Update #19: 09.12.18 - 16.12.18



Difficult week with many ups and downs but still in green which is the best part, so here we go with the summary:

Poker: I played a bit more last week. Taking 3rd in a live sng for €280 profit and, as you can see in previous posts, making a big FT with €2.5 for 1st but, due to a mistake, took 9th for €200. Things are looking better than past sessions but boy, I will upload some videos/pictures and you tell me how bad I am running hehe

Advantage Playing: It looks like I have run out of safe bookies to hunt welcome bonuses so I am just taking those small bonuses when I can.
There are some other bookies with welcome bonus but reviews are bad so I am not taking the risk.

PMT: Pretty good this week. I upped my risk and it paid off so let us keep it going.

IPT: Still, pretty pretty good. Jolly Lock making a huge profit for us lately. I will find a way to filter only Jolly locks' trades to show you.

WinnerOdds: Back on the game with WinnerOdds. Little amount of matches but the ones I have placed have come out in the green.

Double-Chance: Only strategy on the red this week with 5 losers out of 11 which is something BAD. However, we just came from a big upswing so I think things are evening out.
It is worth mentioning i did halved my bank for this strategy. Too volatile for my likes.

This week will be one of the hardest weeks for me since I am on holidays from work and it is the lat week before I get visit from family. Let us make some good use of it.

Thanks for reading and for your feedback. Have a good one

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Best of luck for 2019 OP.

BTW, you said Norwegian football was boring so I doubt you will like cricket. Games can last 5 days

Do you play poker on Betfair? I'm gonna start playing regularly again on there.

This is so nice of you. 2018 has been a pretty rough year and well. I hope luck turns around. Thanks for your wishes and to you too.

I do not trade cricket but I do know some people making huge money there hehe. So if I can do the same, why not? haha

I play poker in several sites including PokerStars, PartyPoker, Unibet, 888, Bet365 (ipoker - betfair is the same), etc. So I do have several accounts.
But making an announcement regarding this soon.

Good luck!!!

Update #20: 16.12.18 - 23.12.18



Pretty decent week taking into account I was down a bunch until yesterday hehe

Poker: This week we finished twice close to big payout. 9th in a €20 rebuy tourney with 3K up top, and yesterday we finished 13th on a €100 with 4K up top

So I have taken a decision regarding poker. I will only play tournaments on Sundays and probably Saturdays, who knows, but nothing during the week. Maybe from time to time I can play cash game but that's about it when it comes to online. Live I will play the weekly tournament at the club.

Advantage Playing: I am struggling to find welcome bonuses now so I have to dedicate more time to finding existing offers.

PMT: Slow as F... But doing better with the movement of the odds.

IPT: My own trades have been pretty crappy haha but Jelly's trades have been super nice. Just in the past 2 days I have achieved $224 in 2 matches of NFL and I know nothing about it. These guys know what they are doing

WinnerOdds: Slow but positive. Little games to bet on but the ones I have, have come out positive.

Double-Chance: Back in the hole. Losing streak again. Let us hope we come back strong this next week.

That is all for now. Have a good week.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

hey,
do you have any content / websites / forums about betfair trading to share ?
im super interested to the whole trading thing but its hard to find any good reads ...
cheers

And just because of this I will start a new project soon.
Thanks for your follow btw.
I will be posting here on Monday something that will be liked by those of you who want to trade on betfair! Best strategy I have used

Keep you updated soon.

Thanks again

Update #21: 23.12.18 - 31.12.18



And this is the way we conclude the year. We started this project on August the 12th with the aim of motivating people to do something different and showing the possibilities of making a living out of something else.
It's been pretty hard and frustrating at times, specially during the last 2 months where variance has taken the best of me.
Overall, we are behind on our goals but I guess this is something normal.

Before telling you about the plans for 2019, here is the summary of the strategies:

Poker: On the graph you can clearly see how variance has affected me negatively and this has been extremely depressing for the overall challenge.
In the past 2 weeks I have been making a couple of FT for €3-2K pay outs for first but only to fall short on 7-9th place. I mean, positive days which is nice but still a long way to go.



The strategy for Poker in 2019 will be to play MTTs online only on Sundays after trading. I will be playing live the weekly tourney and that is about it. Maybe some Omaha cash or STT but I will be looking to lower the amount of poker played.
I also will be looking to post hands and try to discuss them with you guys.


Advantage Playing: As the graph shows, the beginning was good because we got the best offers but now offers are smalls and my brain says "not worth doing something for 10 minutes tog get $5" and that is wrong.
If i can manage to make 10 of days a day then that is around $1000 a month which is huge so I will pay more attention to this strategy. I will be doing it during the mornings when not much is happening.




CST: Not much to say about this strategy. Graph speaks for itself.



This is the biggest change I will make this following year.
Before starting this challenge I used this as my main strategy using my whole roll on it, amazing $2K in 3 months. being very selective with matches.
What I will do is basically put almost all my roll in this strategy again and use it as my main strategy since it is the most consistent one.

PMT: We did not see the whole potential of this strategy since most of the profit gotten here was used on IPT. Nevertheless I wont be using this strategy anymore. I will be using PMT for entering the market for the CST strategy but PMT wont be a strategy of the portfolio anymore.



IPT: More or less the same will be happening with this strategy. I am proving to be a bit bad with IPT. So what I will do is use IPT to decide when to go out of the market while using CST.

"IPT" name will be changed for "JellyLock" which is the service I am using for most IPT trades. The guys are doing amazing on Football and NFL. So I will stick with them a bit more and see how it goes.



As you can see we are doing using this strategy but you wont believe me. JellyLock's trades are up $500 which proves I am doing bad alone. So let us concentrate on what is working.

WinnerOdds: WinnerOdds... You all know how this strategy has been working for me so yes, we will stay with it. However I reseted my starting bankroll to €1500 again so I can dedicate more money to CST.




Double-Chance: This strategy is driving me crazy haha. It works but one has to have an amazing patience. So I am not sure what I will do with it.
Help me decide please hehe



Here I leave you with the graph of the whole portfolio since we started the challenge:



So, Overall we are still in green but super slow, this is why I decided to take some action.
I will be taking my best strategy, CST, and show you how I work it.

I am assuming not many people will read this post so I will post again on Wednesday telling you about the idea I have for this.


Again, guys... thanks for reading and sorry for the under-performance this past months.

Happy New Year, traders!!!

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Hi again!!!

I have received several questions regarding betfair trading so I have decided to try and detail my main strategy, CST.
I would like to know more or less, how many people would be interested in watching live webinars of my using the strategy and trading, maybe even twitch it.

Let me know what you guys think. In the meantime, I leave you with the updated version only CST strategy.

ciao...sono molto interessato ai tuoi investimenti....potresti darmi qualche insegnamento?

Disculpa, No hablo italiano pero si podria ensenarte en ingle o espanol si quieres... Mira el proximo post que hare en unos minutos

Update #22: 31.12.18 - 06.01.18



Not the perfect start of the year
Everything looks red but the only strategy that is always is green haha. Let us strat witht he summary.

Poker: Pretty bad sessions even though I qualified for 2 medium size winter tourneys yesterday. I played super good, I feel, but still went out in most of the tourneys by flipping so... Let's keep it going i guess.

Advantage Playing: I was not much at home last week and thus this strategy not doing well but this week I am doing it more serious

JollyLock: Not a good start but this is trading. A bit of misunderstanding but I am sure things will turn around

WinnerOdds: Super bad week, maybe the worst one we have had so far. Taking into account I have lowered the stakes for this one.

Double-Chance: There were not many picks this week but so far we have been losing almost all of them.

So far the start of the week have been pretty crap but, with bad news there come good news too, I am not that depressed... yet. hahaha

I have decided to start showing my screen, doing some kind of webinar, for people who want to get into betfair trading.
I will be using CST strategy. This will take place, most likely, in twitch starting next monday, 14.01.

I will post again here during the week to choose the dates. But be ready for some trading...

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

hello ... I'm very interested in your investments .... could you give me some lessons?

Hi,

This is for you and for anyone out there trying to learn betfair trading:

Alright!!!! the day has come... We will be online at 15:50 GMT+1
Just come into the twitch channel and enjoy
https://www.twitch.tv/viajepa100

Update #22: 06.01.18 - 20.01.18



I just realized I did not past last week. I apologize for that. I have been pretty busy/distracted in my mind. Things have been pretty rough but we are still fighting for it hehe. Here is the summary:

Poker: I just discovered I have to stick to sng and play tourneys on sundays only. I have been crushing STTs, and past 5 sessions have been positive, so we will keep playing those more often

Advantage Playing: Nothing to report here.

JollyLock: Doing pretty good with them. They are crushing NFL and football is still going there. So things are looking good

WinnerOdds: Again in the hole but hopefully we will come out of it soon. We trust this strategy.

Double-Chance: Again, hesitating with this strategy. Maybe taking it out soon, maybe not. But I did not place bets this weekend, and good thing I did not.

We had the first webinar on Saturday. 1 follower showed up and asked a bunch of question which is super nice and super motivating. However, I need to find a better way to communicate with hose wanting a webinar hehe. So I will check schedule and post ahead of time.

Thanks again for reading.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠
ViajePa100 is offline

Update #22: 20.01.18 - 04.02.18



Finally we reach a new "all-time high". The past 8 weeks have been pretty rough with negative results in the challenge and things in my life. I have been pretty busy at work (asset management) since we have to report to tax authorities/customers for the end of the year and that is a really pain in the... I have been working on getting things right again but, as you might know, it is kind of hard. I failed to report last week and that is due to the same stress I have been through but I have a commitment with you and I intend to keep it that way. So here we go with the summary

Poker: As we talked about in December, the plan for poker was going to change. At the moment I am trying to play STT at least 1-2 hours a day and MTT on sundays. However, I am playing cash online too with a group of local people and it is going good. The main income in Poker, I would say, comes from STT on Unibet. I have a really steady income which either gets used on sundays for MTTs or it transforms into more money if we bink something hehe but... there is a but. I have a challenge inside this challenge to play more STT, I will try to play 3-4 hours a day at least 4 days a week, plus MTT sunday.





Advantage Playing: I will leave this section for after I finish all I have to do at work.

CST: Good as always. We did make a huge mistake when we entered a market with an uncovered position and goal happend in the fist seconds of the match, netting us a big $-221 but still we ended up positive for the month which is good. This strategy is GOLD!



IPT: A bit swingy, that is all I can say heheh So nothing else to do but to continue with it. Let us keep grinding.



WinnerOdds: As you can see, we have had a 3 months period in which we break even all the way, at the line of 1200. This is the same as poker, I guess. We will stay there until variance gets on our side and we hit a big upswing like the one we had at the beginning. Again, volume is the key for this strategy




Double-Chance: As mentioned, I do not think I have the patience to be used as guinea pig. The team did change their staking plan again and I felt things are going south with them so I will stay out for a bit, at least until everything is better with our strategies.




Here I leave you with the graph of the whole portfolio since we started the challenge:



As you can see we have filtered down our strategies to only 4. Advantage Betting, CST, IPT, Poker. We will keep it this way until we get on track again.

Again, guys... thanks for reading and sorry for the under-performance this past weeks.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Update #25: 04.02.18 - 17.02.18



First of all, I have to apologize for the absence lately, I forgot to post again last week. As I told you in the introduction post, I work as an asset management assistant too and end of year is a big bit@€ at work with taxing reporting and all that.
I also have to apologize because for the past 3 posts, the update has been #22 haha.

I do have some good news. First it is the big upswing we hit on IPT where almost half of that came yesterday where we hit big numbers in golf and football (not so good in poker though).
So here we go with the summary

Poker: STTs have been a mini gold mine, im always in the positive there, not the same story when I play tourneys on sundays hehe.. I have been qualifying for some big tourneys like Sunday Million, some turbo events, and some €100 on unibet but having little luck with cashing

Anyway, I started playing short deck too which I find fascinating so I will try to learn the game. So, taking into account we have not been cashing for the past 3 weeks in tourneys, we are not that deep in the red after all.

Advantage Playing: Nothing to report here. I will report more once I have loaded off some of the work crap I have to do haha.

JollyLock: Oh well, $1000+ in 2 weeks is something. I mean, it is not all only JollyLock, I made some myself but 75-80% of that is Jolly. GREAT service. So let me know if you guys want to take a look

WinnerOdds: Still on that flat line, we cant break that barrier, but we keep trying

Again, sorry for not updating lately. I will press the pedal gas once I have finish some of the work.

Thanks again for reading.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Update #26: 17.02.19 - 24.02.19



Back again with new updates. This week was pretty poor, specially yesterday!
Sundays are supposed to be the greatest days for poker players/sports traders but yesterday was not mine.

Poker: Playing more and more 6+ and doing relatively well but still bunch to learn.
Yesterday I played several good tourneys but not even a ITM in one hehe, so pretty huge hit to our bank. The funny thing is this morning I was watching bencb789 playing some tourneys and, for own exercise, I am trying to say what he is about to do. So if he is in a decision on the SB to open shove vs BB or fold, I am trying to decide myself before he does. I find that very helpful.

Anyway, hopefully this following week will be different.

Advantage Playing: I managed to grab a couple of offers, nothing big but still something. So we are starting again.

JollyLock: Not much of a good week. We had some ups and down. Yesterday's golf did not work out, day before had a huge loss too. So we are doing what we can.

WinnerOdds: Finally, back to starting bank, €1500. So things are looking a bit better with winnerodds hehe. I am still struggling to place most of the bets since I am waking up a bit late so I will have to fix my schedule.

That is all for this week and let us keep grinding.

Thanks again for reading.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Update #27: 24.02.19 - 10.03.19



I know I have been away for a bit. Not much reason but downswing haha. I have been very bad at keeping you guys up to date and now I realize how difficult it is to be committed to something like this so... a big big applause for those bloggers, streamers, youtubers, etc. It is an amazing work.

Back to results. Super poor in the last 2 weeks and all thanks to poker so let me summarize all.

Poker: When I started playing poker I started with STT 9 man reular speed, becoming one of the most feared regulars at $15 and 30$ levels. Those games dried out and thats why I stopped it. Eventually transitioning to MTT but man am I a bad mtt player? I have not cashed in the past month anything. Plus the idea was to play stt at Unibet but, my life has been a big roller-coaster. So I am not sure what to do with poker.
Maybe stop it for a while and focus on trading? maybe play only sng which where I make consistent profit. That would give me free time on sundays though hehe. I would like to hear your comments.



CST: Good as always, even though I lost twice the full red ($200+ each time) We managed to come in the positive so good results for this strategy, as expected.



IPT: When it comes to the services, pretty bad. When it comes to my own trades, amazing haha. I have been pretty disciplined with studying the strategy and learning from mistakes and I think i have it figured out (I know it is a lie but let me believe it).



WinnerOdds: I wont say much here. Just look at the graph and come out with your conclusions... I think it is close to 20 weeks on the same level
Hey, At least we are not losing



That is all for this week and let us keep grinding.

Thanks again for reading and dont hesitate in asking me anything or leaving your comments.

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠

Update #28: 10.03.19 - 31.03.19




Back again guys. I have been away a again because of personal issues. I have been taking care of my dad (operation) and gf (sickness) so I have become a doctor now hehe.

Things have been slow but I think we have found our path. I am also working on a new tool that might available for the market very soon. The tool finds discrepancies between prices on the market and what prices "should be at" while in-play. Just like the PMT tool for pre match trading but for in-play. I am really excited to do this.

Anyways, onto the summary...

Poker: Really messy because I have had so little time to play that I am only playing on sundays and, as you know, teh nature of the MTT is to lose until you hit something. I have not hit something yet so everything is in negative lately. We have won 4-5 tickets for sunday Million but have min cashed only in 1, yesterday.




CST: Very little matches lately and something weird is happening. The market is pushing the price super high after a goal, so things are not looking great for this strategy anymore, it looks like. Let us keep it grinding but hopefully is nothing to be worried about. Being that said, we can look to make some tweaks like I did yesterday at liverpool match. I got my profit target in so it was time to get out of the market, however, what I did was to close down 1-0 and 0-1 and left 0-0 open for a bit because some money was available and... JACKPOT!!! goal was scored while waitign for money to be taken. Usually when a goal is scored you win the 0-0 lay, lose one of the backs on 1-0 or 0-1, and make/lose a little on the score that just happened. In this case we won the 3 markets, went out of 1-0 and 0-1 for profit AND we won the lay on the 0-0. Pretty sweat




IPT: We have been trading a lot of matches here with some success. Building green in the early stages to then use them for goals, looks pretty nice but lets just hope they keep coming this way. Everything is match selection.



WinnerOdds: Finally things are looking a bit better, still we have to put more volume into this strategy.



A summary of the whole protfolio so far:



I would like to get feedback from you guys and see what I am lacking (consistency I know) and what I am strong at. Hope to hear from you soon.

Thanks a lot

https://twitter.com/ViajePa100

See you in 7 days ♠