Yeah having the ace is a v. good point i did not consider - will have to note this down when doing blocker work. A hand like JxQc is definitely better.

I've run this in a sim and against a range with AK+ for value and some flushes, where villain folds AK, AA, and bluffs, and the difference in fold equity depending on your blockers is up to 10%!!. It looks like i picked one of the worst hands to bluff with; villain might actually call MORE than usual. A hand like 32o has more fold equity than AxJc.

In terms of thinking of success rates and forgetting about blockers, I'm not going to pretend I have a sample of this rare AF spot where I have a hand that could potentially x/r river. I'm not going to try and generalise either. I think it's a mistake to see villain station hard in one spot and then give up on bluffing altogether. Even after looking through my db, I can't know what my success rate is. It could go either way. So if i don't know, the safe thing is to bluff some and to value some.


BR update: $370.45.

I'm trying to play more 10z on the weekday again, after studying up some spots. Gotta do that to grow.

Reg research is also somewhat finished now, i've found regs i see often with 800 hand samples and have gone through their hands to find tendencies. it's made a difference in a few small pots here and there already! Bring on 10z.
5z graph


10z graph


I don't mind the lower volume because I'm trying to improve, not put volume in. I'm not satisfied with my winrates so I'll have to slow down and get these up.

See you all at the tables!

BR is $362.21

Scraped $400 this weekend but couldn't make it stick. Few good hands:

H1



H2

Lead river big imo. Prefer to set our own price and AQ etc don't bluff frequently. And the raise doesn't/shouldn't yield much extra value since he should or at least likely will muck all 2 pair anyway. Getting jammed on here would be awful. Betting gives us the option of calling off a click back or maybe folding to a shove. Check raise folding is a little ugly, check raise calling a 400 bb pot on paired board isn't great imo. If fish then anything goes I guess

How big?

IMO turn check back is often an overpair that doesn't want to get raised this deep.


I don't think they'll muck all two pair, if you truly believe this then have you x/r river with a hand like 66?

x/r folding is fine if we're beat then we're beat.

3/4 or pot or inbetween imo. overbets are meant to be good vs capped range but that is out my depth

yeah overpair maybe but also Jx, AK, AQ, wheel draw, whiffed bdfd. maybe TT, 99. I dont know what a 6.5x raise means, see 2+2 people 3betting small like this so maybe nothing.

Yes if villain does fold his whole range we could start raising sdv etc.. looking again yeah I guess I would call down with AA-QQ but I think lol at checking back those hands

Worth re-posting in micro-small, there was a similar debate where hero check raised the river with a sdv hand turned into bluff, it was 99 on king high flop where villain had bet flop and checked back turn so hero is like 'lol he is capped I check raise river to get him off Kx'. cant remember what people said. my view was that we would lead river with anything good, the flush completed so imo it was hard to rep anything strong. Conclusion was not to check call because we were mostly dead to kx so turning 99 into a bluff didnt seem horrible. just difficult to balance i guess.

Not sure on the right bet sizing if we do lead, since the check should be thin value / air hands. So on one hand I’d like to bet small to put the air in a tough spot but how much air do we have ourselves when we xc? So overbet seems best to put his thin value to the test.

X/r protects our checking range though and gives him incentive to check back AA like a little *****. We can also turn some hands into bluffs.

I saw that thread and a lot of replies said to overbet because it’s easier or simpler or whatever. Doing both at a frequency is obviously best and makes you harder to play against. It’s how you build the rest of your range around it that makes impact on your EV. Which was just not discussed at all.

Right yeah this was what I was thinking re check folding/check raising - the good check raises seem to make good bets so having a check raising range would be to balance our check folds. And in this range I am thinking I would prefer to have boats but yeah I guess like you say it will be mixed which is where things just get silly complicated (to me at least) requiring substantial amount of work for what could be a lot of ev but could also be mostly negligible.

BR is at $480.34

Had some run good, caught solid hands vs stations, made solid and balanced bluffs. Started taking shots at 16z again, going to take this one slower. If I feel like I'm lost, and that a few too many hands aren't going my way, I'll take a break and make sure everything is standard. Question everything. The riskier an exploit is, the less likely i'll do it.

I gotta say I'm pumped to be at this BR level again. I wish I could have something that hides the $$$ amounts and just shows BB, when there's more money on the line I cant help but think it affects me. I know i'll inevitably have a session where I lose 5BI and the prospect of losing $80 seems so soul crushing. I just have to trust my gameplan, and if it fails me, fix the gameplan.

As always when running good I'll post the challenge's lifetime graph:




A quick note on my goals, $4000 is obviously not happening by June. But I'd be happy with being established at 25z and shotting 50z. I hope I learn from my button clicking mistakes and can make this.

H1 -- wasn't sure about turn play, didn't want to get blown off equity by KT - I'm not x/c because I think I have SDV, I just don't know what to bet and was lost. In hindsight probably bet small is best with sets/straights etc. I couldn't think of this in game.




H2 -- I haven't done enough homework on x/c ranges. I know at 10z this line is value heavy but if i want to play solid I must station some. I definitely have Kx here so I folded this time. I'll have to see how the blockers work together in the solver; whether having QQ blocks more of his value or more of his bluffs.




H3 - I have no idea what my betting and checking ranges should look like OTR.




Quick edit:

Just have to give myself props for being able to control my river bluffs (I know I've said this once before). I did some work on this and it really put things in perspective for me:

H4 - I know in game that my optimal betting range is 99+ OTR. So the best sizing is all in. What I didn't know is just how many bluffs I needed to have. Now a few months ago I look down at 64s, shrug my shoulders and say "if I don't bluff this, then what do I bluff? Yes I block spades but how many of his flush draws have a 6 or a 4 in them? This is my best bluff candidate and it's only 1 combo. ALL IN"

I broke this down in the lab to see. And this thought process is so wrong. Have a read of the hand before you go over the below.

interesting stuff. Obv you have done a lot of work for this re h4. My intuition would say that 99 would be a great big bet or overbet on the river since it is still the effective nuts and doesnt block top pair or aces up except A9 ofc.

What is a reg's preflop calling range from SB vs UTG and BTN call? condensed, but possibly including AK, AQ, AJs. He is calling turn there with a pretty strong range like 2 pair+, maybe 9Tss. AK probably not going to fold on this river. I dont think it's a great bluffing spot despite 0 sdv, dont see many draws in his range and looks pretty strong.

if villain doesn’t feel the heat with those hands then we will be printing.


Quick update: 16z is going okay ...a lot of money is flying about with coolers on both sides. There’s fish to gain an edge from but they’re also more aggressive and I’m having to adapt to them.

The main reason I’m posting this update is because I’ve seen I’m losing 90bb/100 in the big blind this month. And I don’t know why. Then it occurred to me - I’ve been opening up my ranges slowly without noticing. Maybe this is it?

Then I realised I should really have a preflop chart for most positions by now. I’ve been dabbling in poker since I was 18 and only really took it seriously at the start of this challenge. It’s a bit dumb I haven’t got memorised preflop strats for every size, position, and even facing 4bets. I’ve been spending my study time in brushing up my intuition (i.e. getting a better “feel” for the most solid move) and my execution. But I’ve only got RFI charts memorised. I don’t think I’ve decided on a calling range from the big blind. Or a solid 3betting range either.

So this is definitely something I must work on. Like a master chess player knows 20 or more moves of opening theory, a master poker player should have solid preflop baselines memorised off by heart. There is no excuse.

BR is at $504.49

At a certain point in the week I started playing 16z and haven't looked back.
****. This has been a hard poker week, I got back into old losing habits at the beginning of the week. Getting beaten on from all angles - feeling like they always have it, etc.

One of the dumbest things I've done in this challenge is to not have a preflop / flop theory book that I just stick to. I have a RFI but not much else. This means if I watch a YouTube video where some pro does a move (i watch these for entertainment, definitely not study!), or read the advice of someone who is crushing, these things will leak into my game without me fully understanding how to implement them and how they would actually fare in my line ups. This is without me even realising. I'll make a loose call preflop and say "meh pot odds" but it turns out I'm actually bleeding with that hand in that spot, etc.

So I've finally started working on exhaustive preflop / flop (and some common turn spots) charts.
RFI
Facing a 3bet, with different charts for each position
4betting ranges
Calling ranges
Flop strat OOP in SRP
Flop strat OOP in 3bet pots as the PFR
Flop strat OOP in 3bet pots not as the PFR
Turn and River strat on those nasty rivers where the flush/straight complete.

And then I have to modify these for all the different sizings i'll face.

This feels like one of the key things a poker pro needs in his gameplan from the very beginning, and it's a huge embarrassment I have just started on this. It makes you wonder what other dumb things that are super obvious to have that I just don't do.

Not happy with some things though, I'm pretty sure I am a calling station and paying off too light. Also not adjusting well to sizings while bluffcatching.

H1-H3 are just feel good hands.

H1 - vs reg with some fishy tendencies. Was pretty shocked to see I was only a 70% favourite on the flop. I thought trips vs trips was 95% to the person ahead or something, but I guess split equity is a thing with these kickers.




H2 - vs reg



H3 -



H4 - vs reg with passive tendencies, on the stationy side too. Given that these 1/3 pot bets are all the range i've done surprisingly little work on them so I erred on the conservative side. This should be a call at a frequency right?




H5 - vs reg, nothing stands out. 43% fold to 3bet after 2bet. On the aggressive side. River is close eh? It's a terrible sizing for him OTR. But I guess it worked because I paid.

Pokerstars home games
Also i'm asking around to see if anyone wants to play some play money games on pokerstars? I'm in a home game group with 3 other regs playing 10z-16z (i'm in fact the only one still playing 10z) who battle it out with each other on play money to see any potential holes for exploitation. The best way to improve is with other tough competition IMO. And you can collect 0.6BI of free play money chips every four hours so there's no shortage.

Our playstyles range from 10% 3bet and 50 WWSF to 5% 3bet and 42 WWSF - so we should all get experience playing vs every type of reg. No open limpers in the group though unfortunately.


Send me a PM if interested!


BR update: $411.54


Second shot at 16z failed. There's some runbad in it, some tilt as well, and some stationy calls, and some aggro spew.

Think the next time I take a shot I'll one table the whole thing since i'm still misreading stack sizes and stuff.


Had a look through some other PGCs to see how they are doing it and my study regime will now consist of looking at the big money makers / money losers and getting good in those spots. I'll keep an eye out for those spots while 1 tabling, and go back over it again a few days later.

So I'l tag PT4 hands as:
(1) Review, Bad Hand
-- whenever an important spot needs reviewing
(2) Review, Bad Hand, Good Hand
-- whenever an important has been reviewed, and I'm to go over it in future.

16z 2nd shot graph:

BR update: $411.03


One tabling going good. Confident I actually crush tables like this as opposed to the break even 3 tabler I used to be.


Just came here to rant: how do I get ****ing godmoded like this though? I have made this jam with 80% value and only ever got value vs shortstackers and the one time i decide to implement bluffs I get snapped off by an obvious drooler 120 bigs deep.

Biggest pot i've won with this line (haven't filtered stack sizes, if i did you'd just see some sad folds):




The one time i think i might be able to get some bluffs in I get snapped off for 100bb even though I've done this move for value with 100-150bb behind. Still waiting on someone to call 100bb with the same hand when I have QQ zzzzz

Pretty sure jam is not the highest ev play with AK

From a theory point of view it’s fine, and most likely standard - dependent on the frequency I do it with.

From an exploitative point of view I don’t think you can say that without having tried this line for yourself?

If he fold 75% u make 7 bb, if he fold 90 u make 16bb. Your equity in pot is around 50 so thats 11bb if you realise it, pretty easy if you cbet IP with uncapped range on dry board. Your hand plays really well too bc of bdfd you have profitable turn bluff and you dominate him if he floats aq, also ip and with ak its pretty easy to get value when you hit from stubborn pairs on like a K. So even best case scenario of shove is not going to be as good as standard play. Probably a hand like AJ no bdfd will be a good shove in a vacuum.

There are some fair points there, I was thinking we are uncapped so we should have some sort of jamming range and then leave some nutted hands to protect our weak hands via standard play.

This spot looks a bit different for a few reasons:

1. We have positional advantage and three streets of play left
2. Villain is generally WA/WB

When villain has an absurd number of flush draws (that will never happen in a real game) jamming becomes good.



FWIW I think jamming AK is good (if you will have a jamming range) because you’ll have great equity no matter what. If you only jam AA and KK for value, hands with an ace in them like AQ can become good bluff-catchers. Jamming with AK stop villain from being able to use blockers effectively. And when he has a flush draw he will be flipping at best. But jamming is just bad on this flop for reasons everyone has said already.

BR update: $478.36

Focus on playing A+++ game on one table is paying off. More explo moves are being made, I'm more aware of the stack sizes of every person on the table (which stops me making dumb 3bets), and I have a clearer idea of what solid theoretical play really is.

Also focusing more study on 3bet pots, since that's where the big money is, how much of an edge is there really to be had in decided whether KJ as is a cbet on Q75 as the BTN?

Pokerstars home games with the other 2 people in have been super beneficial. One aggro reg in there showed me how my 4bet game has been lacking, so I'll be ready to tackle the aggros of 16z.

I've also been dabbling in live play, but I'll post that at the bottom since that wasn't what I made this PGC for. Gonna post the hands I butchered online first.




H1





H2



H3 - definitely a spot to study a lot. I don't want to give these small opens more fold equity than they deserve.






Live poker
Alright so as my savings have been building up at my job, I've been more willing to take shots in the live cash games in London. I don't have a roll for it yet but since I am earning a steady income and play within my means I'll come down to the Hippodrome with 1.5 buy ins for £1/£2 once a month (or more) and play to bust, double up, or til I play B game or worse. I did this a few months ago with only 1 BI and lost it all. I sat down today with £200 and left with +£304!!! I've got a poker tracker for live sessions and will be using that, but I won't be recording those results on this blog.

A lot of standard spots, not much to discuss. Hitting sets, etc. Getting AA in a double straddled pot where someone opened the pot before me was v. nice. Also tried to make table talk, tip the same as everyone does, do a little straddling if I see people doing it, etc.

Just want to comment though: where the **** are all the live fish everyone keeps talking about?????? The limpy recs make tough folds (showing the table their cards) and don't play entirely passive. They're still spots at the table, but it's not the "call AA in position if there is a fish in the blinds" fiesta everyone is talking about. I hear London is more reggy though, so it's probably that. If anyone has played the games in London, what Pokerstars level would you say it is equivalent to?

BR update: $421.25 (this is for today)


March Graph:




Still making some dumb discipline mistakes - these are spots where I know I'm beat but for some reason I'm still compelled to pay off.

Stuff like 99 < KK pre 100 bigs deep vs someone a tagged as a maniac over a small sample. There's mental game issues there.

I know what you mean, I've made a lot of dumb disciplined mistakes too last couple weeks. Been able to cut those drastically last few sessions. Once you realize how much more you could be winning by not making those plays...

You mention studying 3bet pots more.. Are you talking about when you're the 3bettor, or when you're the one calling the 3bet? For the latter, I think the best way to play them in the low micros is just to fold preflop lol. I don't think people at these stakes are 3betting enough, so we can exploit them by folding more. Plus, the rake has an impact as well, which gives us more incentive to just fold preflop.

If you're talking about being the 3bettor, then not sure. That's the one area where I have a good winrate, but not sure why. I think people at these stakes probably just aren't good at defending vs. 3bets. Not sure if NL10 is any different.

Both. Big money is made and lost in 3bet pots.

As PFR of course you win more money as the 3bettor because you 3bet premiums. If you started flatting QQ+/AK every time you would think your cold calling winrate is v. high

Most people in most spots don’t 3bet aggro enough. It’s a mistake to underestimate the micro zoom stars pool in 2018 IMO.

BR update: $448.12

Not updated this last week because I was getting bored of the same old update about how I'm cutting out x y z leak and this week will be the week lol.

Still one tabling it hard, so volume is really suffering at 3k hands only this week. Still think it's for the best though.




Max value?




STD?

Raise/fold the nut straight on paired board imo unless more of a read. I like the jam though vs some

BR update: $594.99

Yep, that's a record bankroll high for me. I'm posting now so I can lock up the run good.

I've got a good default strat vs a lot of common spots in the game now, I think there are only two things determining how hard I can crush from this point onwards.

1. is how I react to spots that I haven't studied before. I'm not sure how I'll go about this ...one way is trying to master combo work, and being able to know my range in real time. But the last time I tried this, I became more focused on defending x number of combos than trying to have a solid strat that involved overfolding / calling / raising as appropriate.

2. is how I'll navigate multiway pots where GTO default strategies are going to fail really bad.

For the most part my game has been B+ this last week, there's a couple of spots I've managed to spew, I should be above $600 by now. Mainly because of reasons 1. and 2. above.


Tough hands I haven't done work on yet, see below. Thoughts welcomed.

H1





H2 - it's so tough coming up with a solid default strat when villain takes a line he never should. Right now I just plug in the ranges in a solver and trial and error my best response to an "invalid line". But I want to be able to develop a though process that will let me come up with rough responses in real time.

It's one thing to know something's wrong ...it's another thing to prove it to someone else.




H3 - Spots where hero is capped but beating 90% of villain's range (so villain essentially has air and nuts) are awkward on flops/turns where there is some equity to play for. Like here. How to play?

Turn sizing is probably too big.




H4 - clearly done too little work on small blind stuff. This has got to be a snap call as standard right?




H5 - Just a fun hand with no educational value






Self-reminder on thought process:





Live Poker

Currently down -£285 after 16 hours of play. There's definitely some mistakes here WRT playing against 5bb opens, and having to play as and against the three UTG positions in a 9max setting. There's also been some loose play. I think if I do a little bit of preflop ranging vs 5x opens, I should be well on my way to beating these games.

Pretty disappointed at the idea of playing live for a profession though. At 30 hands an hour it's ****ing LOONG. Then I look at my online results and see that I'm running under AIEV by 20 BI over 160k hands at 10z. That's 5300 hours, which is over two and a half years of work. Assuming you put in 40 hours a week which of course will decrease your winrate.

I can't imagine being able to handle that **** live. Of course if I played better at 10z, that downswing wouldn't matter to me. That is only -1.1bb/100 under AIEV after 160k hands Based on what I've read on the forums, 10bb/100 should be possible with 100bb play. So if I was at crusher level I wouldn't expect that kind of downswing to affect my winrate so negatively that I couldn't realise decent equity after a six month stretch.

I don't intend on leaving my job anytime soon lol, I'm definitely one to play it safe. But after my experience I'm definitely not in a hurry to jump into the live circuit. Gonna crush Stars first.

H1 v can very profitably fire many rivers and ofc you can almost never call.

H2 you should be thinking about how profitable of a bluff v has with his bluff hands and what has happend in this spot in your past experience