Bankroll update: $368.20/$4153.88
Feeling super good about this rungood, I'll probably play start taking shots / mix stakes at 16z when i make it to $400.



Have some motivational issues with getting hands in, I'll start making concrete goals for this.



Last post leaks have gone untouched. For practical poker study on CREV, it's best to work from preflop onwards I find. So I've been constructing BB vs SB and BB vs BTN 3bet ranges. River play will come later.



Goals 'til Sunday: 7.5k hands minimum. 10k ideal.

Leaks:
1. Multiway pots as MP PFR - if i don't include this stat then i have a similar winrate in this position compared to UTG/CO. I had a look and it seems like i just haven't flopped as hard / got paid in other positions. But i'll have a look just in case.
Going to look at EP play in general, most of the time the correct move is to XF OOP but i want to know where i'm missing value.


2. River play in 3! pots.
2.5 In fact i think 3bet pots as PFR is something good to look at. will experiment with more 3! sizings in future.
Incoming

3. Theoretically solid defense vs x/r when i cbet 1/3 pot.
Not a priority at the moment, I feel like i have a good enough sample size to predict ranges well.




H1: I bet river thinking it was a blank but I don't do this with value on this runout. Maybe I should look into this though.





H2: bink




H3: not even close


H4: river could be an explo fold no one is sick enough to bluff here.

Quick update:

BR is at 341.38 / $4153.88


Took a hit this weekend from a lot of undisciplined stuff, exploitative moves that were just too wide. And I think I didn't adjust well to the weekend. Too many big bluffs with the wrong blockers.

Was short on my hand goal by about 3k hands, no excuse though. I recently got back into League and it's so -EV poker wise, but +EV because it's fun.

Bankroll update: $305.29/$4153.88

Graph since I got my new computer about a month ago. +1.95bb/100 at 10nlz but not good enough.


Goals:

- 1.5k hands a day for the rest of the month starting on Monday. I'll have to put in extra on some days to make up for the fact I won't able to make time on other days.

- Learn to crush people on turns and rivers after I check flop

- Learn to crush people with flop overbets

Sucesses:

- i'm a lot more disciplined now, my bluffs are very controlled and i make sure to know how many value combos i have and how many bluffs i have before i make moves

- polished off a 3betting range, BTN vs CO.


Hands:

H1: Theoretically this is a snap fold. I snap called tho.




H2:
Secret overbet strat:
1. Get nuts
2. Overbet




H3
Can feel the tilt starting to creep in. Luckily not affecting my play too much but you just gotta play through it.
vs. reg with slight passive-stationy stats.



H4
Bluffing KK for 1.7BI.
My only regret here is that I didn't think to balance my bluffs before i pulled this.

Subbed. I also play in the NL10z pool and will shot take soon. Do you want to talk some strat sometime?

Glgl with your goals.

End of year update

Bankroll update: $388.60 / $4153.88


Results by stake since the beginning of this challenge.


207 hours and 48 minutes. 8.5 hours a week of PLAYING (not including studying). I don't think doubling this figure is realistic without impacting another part of my life. Relationships, exercise, family, and a 40 hour a week job to top it off. And I can't go without less than 8 hours of sleep either.

My biggest leak is definitely time management. I won't make it to 4k by June 2018 at this pace, and I probably won't make it even if i put in 15 hours a week. I probably could if I got better though.

I see all these PG&C crushers beating 100z/200z for 3bb/100 and sometimes more over smaller samples that it makes me believe a true winrate of 10bb/100 is possible at 10nlz if someone can master the game.

I definitely have an edge over the field and will look to hit the 7bb/100 mark or move up to 25nlz. If I run well enough hopefully I'll be mixing 10nlz and 25nlz by February.

GL at the tables!

To do / goals:

- run CREV for 50bb stacks, 150bb stacks, and 200bb pots. I’ve been cashing out once I’m up to 150bb on the tables since I was under rolled for deepstacked play and since I’ve been running **** / playing **** in these pots. Going to look at 50bb stacks since these shortstackers are usually fish, so it’ll be good to double check the best ways to exploit.

- cut down on bull**** time spent on social media or watching YouTube videos.

15 hours on the tables this week. 3/15 down already. I can put in 8 hours on a weekend and spread out the rest over the weekday.

Bankroll update: $479.08 / $4153.88


I started running some CREV sims with 200bb stacks in 3bet pots yesterday - do them when I'm eating to save time. Already learning some interesting things.

Played some 16nlz today; pool seems SUPER soft. The only place with more whales in the ZOOM pool is 2nlz. Small sample though.

Hands:

H1 - Flat AA pre.
Vs reg with SUPER aggro stats over a good sample size.

Do you think his hand choice was good considering the line he took?






H2 - 77 set on bad river






H3 - funny hand
vs reg with super aggro stats. I think he must fold OTT.





H4 - K high call vs fish

Had him labelled as fish - i have two tags for this, one if they are not >= max buy in, or if I see them limp pre (unless it's in the SB). I don't remember which it is.






H5 - cooler that wouldn't have happened if i took a different line.






H6 - this is the second time i've had a set of 22 cracked in the SB. Didn't misclick 100bb this time though.




H7 - 8 high bluff 200bb deep.

Villain had aggro stats over 160 hands. 20/20 cbet flop.






H8 - another hand vs another aggro reg. Attacking my "capped" range.






H9 - folding AA has never been so easy.

What's happened so far:


I was looking through the thread to see how far I've come and what I've done. A few things I've found:

- I'll post that I have a "leak" and then make excuses for why I haven't fixed it. I'm **** at fixing things I flag as "leaks".

- I used to have major problems with bluffing too much, especially OTR. You don't hear me talking about that anymore because I've fixed it.

- The thought process I posted earlier in the thread has done me super good and I've adopted it without even thinking about it now.

- I used to want to know the combos I have in my range at all times off by heart. I wasn't able to do this. I currently don't know how many of x, y, and z I have in a given spot, but I know the rough numbers enough to be able to control my frequencies super accurately.

- I mentioned earlier in the thread that I'd be mixing stakes rather than putting aside x buy ins to shot-take. Mixing stakes has been super good for me; I don't get any nerves about shot taking when I know I'm effectively playing 7nlz, or 11nlz, because of how I'm distributing my hands. I do cash out and re-buy though when I've reached 150% of my initial buy in at the higher stake. When I'm playing the lower stake, I never cash out until I end the session.

And a few things that might not be available in the thread

- I respect fish more, and stop trying to play as balanced (particularly by having less bluffs) vs them.

- I've been trying out so many different lines as value and bluffs with huge success. I can crudely balance the lines that I haven't studied, but this is still doing better than the fish and fishregs who have no idea how to play vs the lines I take.

- I make a lot more good hero folds (I hope), and without crying about it.

Graph since the start of this challenge (all stakes):



Bankroll update: $528.84/$4153.88

I think you forgot a key element of your secret overbet strategy a few posts back. Find a fish to play against hahaha. I noticed your VPIP/PFR stats were pretty tight. Do you think your winrate would have a better chance of increasing if you loosened up a little more, or do you have more success with tighter ranges?

At any rate, will keep watching your progress, and hope you'll start crushing it harder!

Tighter is a better way to start. If I started this challenge playing looser then I would’ve got destroyed.

Loosening up is something I could look into now though.

Cheers, GL to you too

In! Good luck with this!

Bankroll update: $498.56/ $4153.88

Graph all stakes 01/01 - 07/01



Stake breakdown



Super frustraring to be up $148 then back down to$45 but any downswing would feel harsh after that heater. I played more hands of 16nlz than I planned for but I didn't expect the games to be as good. There's a lot more wacky calls at 16z and since I'm overrolled for 10z i don't mind taking an extended shot at 16z.

Lost a ton getting stationed in spots where I made moves with reasonable hands. I think I'm pretty balanced in those spots anyway so my ranges will realise equity when I do have a hand.

15 hour week is a success, more do-able than I thought. Managed to fit in some social life, binging on games, and getting through a miniseries. Aiming to make this the norm.

Cheers for coming along guys, GL with yours as well!

H1 - A8 river 2bet on paired river card.
Villain was 22/19, 92% F cBet and 81 WWSF.





H2 - T9s in SB, gross turn spot vs reg
Reg was 27/19, 47% cBet and 58 WWSF over 323 hands.




H3 - KK facing raises;
BB was 22/6 over 52 hands.




H4 - AQ trips best kicker
vs unk

Thought about folding this one OTR but i wasn't good enough to.






H5 - Flush in 4way pot.
Almost folded the turn. Still not good enough to though.




H6 - JT makes straight and gets donated to.
It's a bit worrying that I've been getting setups like these but I'm only 2.5bb/100 this week.





H7 - 85s with trips in 3! pot
3bettor was reg.

The two hands where you said you're not good enough to fold... I don't think you can fold in either of those spots. Just coolers. Either that, or I suck too lol. In the last hand, I think that might be too loose of a call to the 3bet preflop.

Bankroll update: 546.62 / 4153.88

Sessions at 16z have been pretty meh, most of my profit is coming from fish all ins with stupid hands pre, AA > 77 for 60bb, AK > KQ for a similar amount.

My naturally trappy style of play is running into some trouble vs the fish here, I should really look into running CREV so I can know how to defend my checking range when I bet most of my value. Hopefully I learn from my overview two posts back where I realised I don’t leak bust enough.

@PokerPhilosopher

I think QTdd I cant fold turn because of odds but it was definitely sick to see the board pair.

AQ is much closer though and you’ll be hard pressed to find people creative or mad enough to bluff on that runout IMO.

85s is too loose yeah, just a pretty hand to have in my range but it’s a mental leak. I fold on most days

They might not bluff, but I think they'll bet most or all aces like that.

Bankroll update: $520.89 / 4153.88

This one's gonna be a bad beat post!

Frustrating week at 16z. Made it my primary game since the pool seemed so much better and I had the dolla for it. I've been running above EV but I don't feel like I'm running hot. Every major win in in my graph is either a cooler, me GII with an overpair in a 3bet pot vs a fish's combo draw, or a fish donating money.

IMO I have an edge on a good day but am slightly losing on a bad day. I've made a few too many Ahi calls than I should've. When too much of my money comes from dumb fish moves, it's an indication I'm not crushing like I want to be.

I'll be having less volume over the next week and studying my game, making sure I'm covering my leaks well, exploiting well, etc.

Will try to find "holes" in my game and in the game of other regs.

16z all time results



H1 - Super furstrating to see him min-3bet the turn, know he is a fish, and then have my money go to him.




H2 - again super frustrating to see K4s call in the SB get rewarded but hey this is how we get paid.




H3 - I do my fair share of "coolering"


H4 - combo draws everywhere



H5 - Sigh

Just gonna add another two hands to the pain train today:

H6 - c-c-c-combo draw



H7 - Have to GII 80bb deep but i cry when he min4bets.

Variance is real man, but make sure to always work on your game and most importantly learn from your mistakes.
H4 is a fold otf after he raises imo, unless u have reads he is a whale. People in general are very strong in these spots, you will see a good draw which u r flipping against or he has a set or straight and u r dead. You can work this on equilab, but from my exp is just a fold.
Wish u more luck in the future!

Nice thread mate, I've recently started playing again at 10NL zoom and will hopefully be taking 16NL shots soon so I'll hopefully see you there, where abouts in the UK do you live?

Cheers, good luck to you both!

I’m in London at the mo

Bankroll update: $520.26 / $4153.88

Work I did today (all crude, no method, just whatever I thought of):

- Looking at 3bet pots OOP and experimented with different villain tendencies OTF. There are some scenarios OOP where opponent can call with 100% (semi-reasonable) range and the most exploitative move is still to bet K high along with a range of other value hands.
- Vaguely looked at turn play as PFR in 3! pot where i bet value heavy and villain is station.
- Re-checked the optimal number of bluff combos in a few spots.


Hey do any fellow regs that win have positional winrates they would't mind sharing over a good sample? Over all stakes 2z-16z (majority of hands are from 10z, then 5z, and other stakes have 10k hands or less) I'm beating the games for 3.5bb/100 but I know this is far from crushing so I want to know in which positions I should look to bump up my winrate first.

Quick update, played no poker. PS4 and Netflix got in the way but still on track for 15 hours of play this week. 9 hours and 20 mins down.

- I need to work on my turn and river play. Which hands are good to bet with? How big can I make it? When I use weird sizings on the flop, what are the turn and river follow ups?

- I need to start getting the cojones for massive overshoves of three times the pot or bigger when I want to go fully polarised with my range. I've done this twice, once for value and once as a bluff. Got through both times.

- GTO play involves multiple bet sizings. WHY? Because the best sizing with a betting range that only has the nuts for value hands is ALL IN. With the 2nd nuts and other worse value hands, you want to bet smaller. Share some nutted combos in your smaller bet sizings to protect your thin value bets. Jam the rest. Just ran a crude sim for this and it looks correct!!!

- Villain 3bet ranges postflop aren't completely polarised. WHY?? FIGURE THIS OUT

In response to your last post, I wouldn't worry about trying to balance multiple bet sizes yet. Keep it simple and just have one betting range (one bet size) for any situation. Unless you've already done that and are trying to refine things.

For me, I am going with the approach of having equal bet sizes across all streets postflop, so that I will be all-in by the river. So that means close to pot-sized bets when I bet all three streets, around 2x pot overbets when only betting the turn and river, and around 10x pot overshoves when only betting the river. Just something I'm working on now, but thought I'd share in case it gives you any ideas or helps you out since you're talking about bet sizes. I have no idea how GTO-like that is though lol. But keeps things a lot simpler, and maybe prevents me from making a lot more mistakes otherwise from complicating things too much. Feel free to ridicule me if that's a terrible approach lol.

In response to your second to last post, I wouldn't worry too much about general positional stats. I would look at more specific areas, like how much you're making/losing by 3betting, or open-raising, or cold calling, etc. And then once you've found an area to work on, then maybe look at positions to see which positions to work on in those situations. Just my thoughts again.

@PokerPhilosopher

My idea is that most bet sizes are viable as long as you (1) can have the nuts in every bet size, (2) go for max value, with only a little difference in EV between sizes vs a true GTO response.

So we use bet sizes that are super hard to impossible to balance. But I leave it to the other guy - who probably hasn't studied the spots I put them in - to prove me wrong.


Quick udpate:

Bankroll is $414.49ish / $4153.88

16z has well and truly whipped me over 12k hands. Moving down to 10z. I can't beat 16z right now. I haven't figured out why yet either. My WWSF is a good 3% lower at 16z than at 2z-10z.

- made too many exploitable moves trying new lines justifying it with success in small sample sizes.
- I've noticed some lines drop out of my repetoire at 16z as an adjustment to the fish - maybe I need to reimplement a more balanced version of my lines?
- Compare WWSF in 16z spots to 10z spots, and see exactly where I'm taking hits.

I've started recording videos and reviewing my hands that way to get the real time thought process as well. Execution in poker is 50% of the game.

BR update: 394.08

Got 14 hours of table time last week - I definitely could've got more but I wasn't in the mood after getting my ass handed to me at 16z.

Changed my routine - instead of sitting down and grinding when i feel like or when i have time, I one table for at least 50 hands and record myself.

I then pick up on spots and run through them in the solver, guessing what the right move is, and then seeing how correct I was. I've picked up a few leaks right away.

I'm not a poker machine, I'm pretty confident these leaks that have creeped up weren't all there before, so I'll want to make this regular practice. It's easy to forget how solid play looks like, and if you don't "practice" enough your play will slowly be more and more sloppy.

Shout out to the poker contacts I've had as well. I've had three poker contacts and two have come and gone. EVERY SINGLE ONE told me I don't make enough explo moves. And that's too true. I just found a spot a few days ago where I snap called with the 2nd nuts (of my range, not of the board) because I had the nuts. But a fellow reg told me he folds there, and he didn't tank much about it. He didn't see results either - and he was right. I should've folded on that occasion.

IMO I should keep the solid moves where I don't have big samples, or if I'm trying new lines. But in spots where I have a good sample on player pops, I should be making huge deviations from GTO where I can.

Graph this year, 50/50 10z, 16z.