IS 50NL ZOOM BEATABLE FOR 10BB/100 OVER 150K HANDS!? - $30K PROP BET OF THE YEAR? - Page 3 - Poker Blogs and Goals -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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IS 50NL ZOOM BEATABLE FOR 10BB/100 OVER 150K HANDS!? - $30K PROP BET OF THE YEAR?

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11-15-2019 , 05:48 PM

#51

pontylad

banned

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 8,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hellmuth was right

8:1 is ridiculous odds to give to a skilled player. even a losing player can run at 10BB/100 EV over that sample.

well the 500z regs and cfp guys have instantly taken all this action. So odds seem reasonable.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tgiggity

no way to pw protect a stream on twitch?

you can make your stream subscriber only. Def the way to go for the bet imo.

11-15-2019 , 06:01 PM

#52

weirdmonkey

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 639

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

This would be pretty amazing if pulled off.

Does anyone know the difference between Pokerstars 50NL Zoom/Ignition 50NL Zone and America's Card Room 50NL Blitz? Are all these comparable or is one more difficult than the others?

I only ask because I currently play 10NL Blitz on ACR and the games are pretty hard (for me at least).

I've only played Ignition and ACR but I'm guessing it goes ACR >>> Stars > Ignition in terms of difficulty

11-15-2019 , 06:40 PM

#53

80smiami

stranger

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 7

Quote:

Originally Posted by pontylad

you can make your stream subscriber only. Def the way to go for the bet imo.

Sub only means only subscribers can chat, anyone can watch the live stream (assuming you're talking about twitch).

11-15-2019 , 07:07 PM

#54

PlasticElephant

Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 2,305

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZKesic

Exactly. I don't know why no one is getting this. This whole bet started as an argument weather or not decent MS/HS regs could "easily" crush 50z for 10bb/100. So, realistically the odds should be 1:1 if meale thinks his actual WR is at that level.

It's like no one knows how to use the variance calculators.

The fact that the odds are 8:1 is pretty much a confession from him that 10bb/100 isn't sustainable at 50z.

Meale can also start martingaling towards the end if he sees that his WR is at ~8bb/100, or playing a nitty/low variance style if it's at ~12bb/100. This additionally improves his odds of winning the bet.

Option 1) I don't know how to use variance calculators and didn't think of the martingaling

Option 2) I considered both of these things before laying $4k

Tough one for you to think through this, but I guess matches with the assumptions you gotta make to assume that nl50 regs are better than nl500 regs

11-15-2019 , 07:07 PM

#55

Jaznin

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 162

i will cheer for you ..... Aussie

11-15-2019 , 07:19 PM

#56

RyanWCollins

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 212

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZKesic

How's that a confession? He's obv trying to maximize his EV. Would be pretty stupid to take 1:1 odds if he can get better. But the fact that so many people are willing to take the other side despite the odds is pretty telling

11-15-2019 , 07:21 PM

#57

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,093

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlasticElephant

Well, if you bet 4k vs meale at 8:1 odds you must think that nl50 regs are better than him too, as this bet would probably be -EV even vs them.

Last edited by ZKesic; 11-15-2019 at 07:31 PM.

11-15-2019 , 07:46 PM

#58

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,582

Quote:

Originally Posted by weirdmonkey

I've only played Ignition and ACR but I'm guessing it goes ACR >>> Stars > Ignition in terms of difficulty

This is what I kind of thought but I haven't played Stars - only seen videos of people playing Stars.

I think people underestimate how hard it is to beat these zoom pools. The difference between a regular 50NL table and a 50NL zoom table is HUGE. I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that the zoom table is twice as hard.

All these people on their Chinese app sites or baby soft micro pools on Global really have no clue of the competition of the bigger sites.

11-15-2019 , 07:50 PM

#59

_jimbo_

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 1,439

Ah brilliant, looks like it would be a very big ask but games on Stars are always juicy over Christmas. GL

11-15-2019 , 07:56 PM

#60

PlasticElephant

Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 2,305

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZKesic

Well, if you bet 4k vs meale at 8:1 odds you must think that nl50 regs are better than him too, as this bet would probably be -EV even vs them.

yes obviously I do think meale is worse than someone winning 7.5bb at 50z (which is basically no 50z reg anyway), or I would not take the bet.

I don't really think it's super +EV for me, but i also don't really know meales ability, if he is worse than I think he is it obviously becomes a print.

I think I bet against myself fwiw playing 75k hands in a month.

11-15-2019 , 08:02 PM

#61

pontylad

banned

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 8,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by 80smiami

Sub only means only subscribers can chat, anyone can watch the live stream (assuming you're talking about twitch).

No, you can also set it so that only subscribers can view the stream too (bar something like a 5 minute preview). So you can basically only have subscription based viewers

11-15-2019 , 08:10 PM

#62

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,093

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlasticElephant

If his WR is >6bb/100 he should be making money with this bet imo. I'm not sure if his WR is this high though, as 50z is thougher than most people think.

My point was that in the original discussion most people were claiming that a decent 200nl reg would "easily" have a 10bb/100 WR at 50z. If that's really the case, then this bet is obviously -EV and 1:1 odds would be more reasonable.

11-15-2019 , 08:11 PM

#63

JoseMourinho

Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 847

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZKesic

Well, if you bet 4k vs meale at 8:1 odds you must think that nl50 regs are better than him too, as this bet would probably be -EV even vs them.

Please try to use variance calculator, its not that difficult

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZKesic

My point was that in the original discussion most people were claiming that a decent 200nl reg would "easily" have a 10bb/100 WR at 50z. If that's really the case then this bet is obviously -EV.

If anything, some people (including myself) were arguing a TOP 200z regular could possibly achieve 10bb at 50z. Is meale a top 200z reg? Tough to say, because he doesnt play these games

11-15-2019 , 08:13 PM

#64

JedMosely

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 257

Meale any chance you can post some results over a reasonable sample at med-high stakes? Looking to bet your side but ive no idea of your skill level

11-15-2019 , 08:16 PM

#65

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,093

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoseMourinho

Please try to use variance calculator, its not that difficult

I used it. It was said that some 50z regs make 6bb/100 (and probably more than 2 table on average). If they play a high stdev style with the martingale thingy at the end, they should make money in the 8:1 bet.

11-15-2019 , 08:32 PM

#66

JackBurton

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 588

From what I've understand OP doesn't play zoom on stars? If he's a winner in nl200 zoom or a similar stake I would like to bet on his favor in a 150k hand sample if there are any takers.

Do the highstakes guys want more action at 1:8? Because of high volatility I will only bet 1k to your 8k?

Edited: I'm reading his thread and it seems he plays asian apps, so I have no term of comparison and can't make any bet without much more info.

Last edited by JackBurton; 11-15-2019 at 08:42 PM.

11-15-2019 , 08:50 PM

#67

Clanty

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 2,686

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZKesic

Huge +1. Why is this going down at 8:1? The whole argument/debate started because some believed 10bb at 50nl was impossible in a vacuum, while others believed it was. Making this prop bet at 8:1 seems extremely underwhelming. For example, I don't think I'm a 10bb winner at 50nl on average for 150k hands, however I'd bet a ton that I am one in 9 times... and I'm sure this is true for many others out there. But that's not what the whole discussion was about.

11-15-2019 , 09:43 PM

#68

isunkurbttlship

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 7,659

+1 to that as well

11-15-2019 , 09:59 PM

#69

TheTyman9

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 4,669

I'd take a small bet on meale's side if anyone wants a sweat.

11-15-2019 , 10:23 PM

#70

GarbageReg

banned

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 388

Quote:

Originally Posted by CantStopCalling

Just stream on twitch without hole cards. Yes it sucks for viewers, but i think it will still be entertaining cuz its a prob bet and you seem like a good entertainer. And you dont need delay so you can communicate with chat in real time, that will make grind more fun for you aswell having people railing.

+1 no hole cards is better than no stream. we would still get the entertainment from rapidesh stacking you.

11-15-2019 , 11:07 PM

#71

Nefirmative

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,213

glgl rooting for you Meale. Very real shot at this

11-15-2019 , 11:12 PM

#72

Ondra

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 20

innnnn glgl OP!

Love how this bet started a really juicy discussion!
This is going to be an interesting bet to say the least.

11-15-2019 , 11:36 PM

#73

bbissick

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,281

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheTyman9

I'd take a small bet on meale's side if anyone wants a sweat.

I’d be down Ty

11-15-2019 , 11:55 PM

#74

BigBananas

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 1,384

i'd be down to bet against meale. but not paying 8:1

11-16-2019 , 12:42 AM

#75

meale

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 9,768

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clanty

Because it's not worth my time to do it if im not getting 8:1. My living expenses are $11k for 2.5 months, if I win at 10bb/100, I don't even come close to affording expenses. No mistakes pro is going to play 50nl for a Max of $20/hour when they make >3x that playing higher. These ladyboys aren't going to **** themselves!

Looking to sell some more action at 8:1, please pm me here or on Skype if interested!!!

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