Ran it because I was curious. Pio not betting TT much here, especially considering its not for the preferred sizing of the rest of the range. Specific combo from the HH is betting most frequently and EV is close between checking and betting so betting can't be bad, but check seems better imo.

https://prnt.sc/13d6djm

Villain's EV goes up the bigger the pot is if he has any equity. Naturally.

Giving free equity in a 70bb pot could be a disaster - not so much in a 7bb pot.

I want to run this TT hand now. The discrepancy could just be the starting ranges we are using.

Okay I have it as mixed - but mostly bet without the diamond.

Interesting that AQs/AQo /KQo/KQs are almost range betting on this turn. Also A9s/K9s. A4s/A5s/A6s/A7s as well.

All our diamond combos are very aggro too. QTdd/KTdd/ATdd all bet turn.

Our range goes pretty nuts on that blank + the flop call.

Could definitely be different ranges giving different results. Mine I just downloaded from the coaching group I'm in (not gonna say publicly, DooDoo knows who and can vouch for their legitimacy) so I personally trust the outputs I'm getting.

For sure. I thought I was doing something wrong by not betting OTT but if it mixed then I'm happy either way.

I didn't realize how aggro we should be on that turn so I learned something.

thx for the sim

I still don't really understand. If the equity is the same, then 7bb will become 70bb when it happens 10 times.

Yeah, I don't think doodoo is correct, the size of the pot is not relevant it's the SPR. Denying equity is less of a thing at high SPR because people can just call their gutshots and overs and back door flush draws since nutted hands are more relevant at higher SPR. At lower SPR this stuff can be made less profitable.

Oh okay I can see how it wasn't very clear. I always just assume we are talking about 100BB effective stacks. So a 70BB pot would be a low SPR and a 7BB pot would be a high SPR.

I ran a sim of that spot with my ranges and got similar results:



TT seems like a pretty clear check. It might be mixed in some solutions, but it being a 100% bet is just weird, imo. Aren't we just range betting for two streets at that point?
We also have to risk more money for protection in a 70bb pot... Pot size by itself doesn't matter. Only the ranges and the SPR.

Thanks.

I ran the sim with GTO with only 50% pot size on the flop and get similar results with ZKesic and buggits. Thanks for running and sharing the sim.

I check the flop strategy from GTO wizard and it uses a multiple bet size strategy on the flop and this can greatly affect our turn strategy.
Also ott, the GTO wizard allows donking so the Villains checking range can be slightly weaker.
GTO wizard cannot customize the bet size and range at the moment but it is very convenient to upload the hand history and see the output.
The real GTO strategy strong depends on the ranges and flop strategy but I think if we can learn some basic concept in a spot, that's enough.
Given the Villain's range, I think mixed betting and checking is fine.



This is the Villain's defending range vs our flop cbet:

Blunder tonight: -6.8bb

Opponent rarely check Khigh three streets and we would bet this to fold out his AQ/AJ/AT. Also should play more aggressively vs a fish when he checks.

The KQs hand is fine, I think.

Your software doesn't have accurate "GTO" ranges for the min 3bet, I assume. And even if it did, the fish isn't playing GTO. In reality this guy is probably checking down everything with no pair and insta calling AK/AQ otr.

Yes you are right, his range should be wider than standard. The software assume standard 3betting size of 11-12bb. And I think fish will also call river with AK/AQ very often. Exploitatively vs fish I think the best line is start betting the flop and continue barrel on brick turn.

Yeah seems fine, would you also triple on this runout?

Against a big fish I prefer betting two streets with an ace because they might just call with k high.

what's your book advice for today's game ? gl gl

That has to be a really big fish. Not sure we can get two streets from Khigh in general.

usually I prefer trippling hands with equity. For this hand, it can mixed some frequency since the run out is so good for us and we have all sets and two pairs given his smaller 3betting size.

Ran pretty hot in the last few sessions and hope the downswing ends soon.

Interesting spot:

Although my hand seems to be a decent bluff catcher but I don't think player can bluff raise enough on the turn. All his draws can easily call and realize the equity. Also I would rather block KJ for his turn raise. His range is pretty much KJ and flushes on the river.

So you think that his minraise turn range will be KJ and flush draws. If that's so you should just jam the turn as all his flush draws will be getting a good price to call off anyway. If you don't put him on enough bluffs then you can just fold, although you are severely capped in KJ and a competent player might realize this.

I don't think he will raise the flush when he can easily call IP. I am not sure if I can fold the turn yet with that price and I still have outs.

You said this, not me. I'm just saying that if you think this is true jam yourself. I have no idea wtf his minclick is

Ya I mean that range weighs more towards KJ rather than flush draw ott. We will see the hole cards tonight.