usually on those double flush turn right?

yeah and we're oop with a strong but very vulnerable hand

Makes sense!

Today when I ran solver for this spot, I think I realize a very important concept here.
The solver will check all AK otr. When you jam the river, you are not going to be called by worse. So the EV of check back goes up due to Villain can still have hands to bluff. In this spot and low SPR when we are not folding this hand anyway and we cannot be called by worse, checking seems to be always a better option.

Sounds logical! Is betting small better than shoving on turn then? I'm a complete newb to solvers btw

What are you betting on the river?

You really shouldn't be shoving at 1SPR in 4 bet pots. Yes there are some spots where a shove might be ok but on most boards the solver prefers small 1/4 pot bets in these situations.

Yes on the flop and turn I am using a lot of 1/4-1/5 bets. I am not sure if small bets is used again on the river or not since you mostly want to be polarized.

AA and QQ/KQ probably if I bet and get to the river.

Feel like a bad call at the beginning. I would like to have a club in my hand but not to many of them.
Feel like still need to call some non-club Kx here. 9 seems to be better than Q/J which doesn't block his flop floats (AJo/AQo) and then decided to turn those into bluffs otr.

Seems reasonable. You're also unblocking his bdfd floats that might bluff on turn.

I'm happily folding otr and don't miss a second of sleep because of it

This is a good point.


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Probably fine in lower stakes but when you move up you need to find some uncomfortable calls here since people are going to bluff more properly.


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Yeah sounds fair but yes you know I'm a micros only guy so far and there they just almost always have flush here, maybe a few regs jam with the missed nfd or a set perhaps

This might be true as compared to micros reg, but keep in mind midstakes regulars don't bluff nearly enough as they are supposed to, either. Uri Peleg says this a lot, they simply aren't bluffing the right frequencies. If you have AK one club, KQ one club, sure go for a bluffcatch. But you don't need to be super balanced because they won't be either.

100K hands updates:

Not a very nice graph but that's it: my first 100K hands in 200z.
Had a 20BI and breakeven downswing in the last 20K hands and the feeling is different when I was on a 40BI upswing. Maybe I am not a crusher for the stake at the moment so large variance is expected.

Next 100K hands goal:
- If I can reach $10K profit again with win-rate > 4.5bb/100 I am going to take another 5BI shot at 500z
- Double the volume

For the study I have switched to use the GTO wizard and I really like their uploading function which can quickly analyze my hand histories. To make this post more engaging, I am trying to post some blunders from the analysis.

Hope to reach 500z by the end of the year!

Blunder: -6.78bb



We are betting this turn 100% of the time and there are lot of protection to be had with our particular hand.

^ It seems like a blunder to bet the turn there. The hand was WP, imo.
A lot of protection from what? Gutshots, AQ and low pairs all have really low equity vs us.

I wouldn't trust the software you're using too much. The EVs seem way too far apart to be anywhere close to GTO.

lol. I think it's a p clear bet but it doesn't matter what I think, the results are in

Turn is also a really good card for you blocking a set. A8s, 99 might call, some fd hands too. I don't think many people c-raise turn with a fd.

I think it is close given the BTN vs CO and we can still get value from some low pocket pairs and two overs + flush draw which has pretty good equity vs our hand. If this is HJ vs UTG it is more of a check since UTG is much strong and can still have JJ and QQ.

Nice 100k hand sample!

I have to go check out this GTO Wizard now

Betting turn with TT makes sense after thinking about it. Villain still has to call with 99/77/66 + we don't want his floats getting two free cards.

Also if we X back turn and the river comes Q/K/A/T we just miss out on value if he does have underpairs.

Yeah but equity denial becomes more important when the pot gets bigger.

SRP okay your point is valid.

Why is that?