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3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes 3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes

07-26-2015 , 09:15 PM
I find 3! to be a very interesting topic, and while I think it has added meaningfully to my win rate, I don't have the hard data to support the anecdotes. So I am going to track every single 3! I make over the next 200 hours and post the results here. I'll also include raising straddles out of the blinds. I estimate this will take 3-4 months to complete. Since we can't use a HUD tracker in live poker, this seems like the next best thing.

If anyone has any suggestions on how to improve the "hand histories," feel free to chime in. These are going to be a lot less detailed than a normal HH though, mostly just the action and outcome.

My 3! will mostly be a mix of premium hands and trouble hands. I have no idea what my value range vs. semi-bluff range frequency is right now, so this will be a learning experience for myself as well.
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
07-26-2015 , 09:17 PM
Session 1: 7/25/2015, 5 hours (160 hands), 2/5 NL
# of 3! or 4!: 4 (2.5% frequency)


1. ES: $450. Loose opener raises to $35 in MP, HJ calls, loose BTN (felted twice in 15min) calls, Hero 3! to $150 from the SB with AT, table folds, OR asks "Do you have Aces?" I nod 'yes.' - Net: +$110 (+22 BB's)

2. ES: $550. TAG raises UTG limper to $25, Bad-V calls $25, Hero 3! to $105, TAG folds, Bad-V calls. Pot $240, Flop 984r, Bad-V check/calls $125. Pot $490, Turn 9846ss, V ships for $330, Hero calls, V shows T6dd, Hero wins with QQ. - Net: +$595 (+119 BB's)

3. ES: $1000. UTG straddles, 5 callers including V in SB, Hero makes it $105 from BB with A J, folds to bad, loose, tilting SB who calls. Flop AQ4hh, SB checks, Hero bets $125, SB tank/folds. - Net: +$165 (+33 BB's)

4. ES: $900. Hero opens to $25 UTG with KK, MP calls, LAG/Squeezer V in SB raises to $100, Hero 4! to $325 and V tank/folds claiming he had AKs. - Net: +$130 (+26 BB's)
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
07-27-2015 , 12:03 AM
Cool idea! Looking fwd to following.

One suggestion would be to include whether 3! Hand is sooted or not
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
07-27-2015 , 01:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bob_124
Cool idea! Looking fwd to following.

One suggestion would be to include whether 3! Hand is sooted or not
Whoops looks like some of the text got cut out. Hands 1 and 3 were both unsuited. Will try to keep them more clear going forward. Thanks for suggestion.
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
07-27-2015 , 02:01 PM
This is a great thread idea and I'm glad to see you pursue it. Are you interested in talking about hands? Your 4-bet sizing in hand #4 seems big. A smaller sizing would encourage him to flat with his weaker value range (JJ, QQ, AK) or spazz-ship light.

I also realized that I used some of your advice in a poker road trip series that I'm writing, you might enjoy it: http://www.fulltilt.com/blog/poker-r...ent-hammond-2/. Thanks again for the tips!
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
07-27-2015 , 02:14 PM
Is hand 3 a three bet
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
07-27-2015 , 07:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RelentlessDoubt
Is hand 3 a three bet
It's a straddle raise. I am including straddle steals when there are multiple callers since it's fairly similar to a 3! squeeze after multiple callers.
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
07-27-2015 , 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bob_124
This is a great thread idea and I'm glad to see you pursue it. Are you interested in talking about hands? Your 4-bet sizing in hand #4 seems big. A smaller sizing would encourage him to flat with his weaker value range (JJ, QQ, AK) or spazz-ship light.

I also realized that I used some of your advice in a poker road trip series that I'm writing, you might enjoy it: http://www.fulltilt.com/blog/poker-r...ent-hammond-2/. Thanks again for the tips!
I am willing to talk about them. The consensus in Hand #4 was that I did in fact raise too big. I think $250 would have likely gotten a call out of him. I just started playing 2/5 so I need to work on my sizing.
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
07-28-2015 , 10:18 AM
Session 2: 7/26/2015, 3.5 hours (112 hands), 2/5 NL
# of 3! or 4!: 4 (3.6% frequency)


1. ES: $475. 2 limpers, MP (semi-active raiser in LP) raises to $20, Hero 3! AKo to $70, table folds.
- Net: +$35 (+7 BB's)

2. ES: $430. Loose raiser makes it $15 in MP (normal size is $20-$25), Hero 3! KTo to $50 OTB, V calls; Flop T99dd, he checks, I bet $75, he calls; Turn 3d, he leads for $150 (into $250), I fold and he shows A8dd.
- Net: -$125 (-25 BB's)

3. ES: $600. MP opens to $20, HJ calls $20, Hero 3! AA in SB to $100 and both fold.
- Net: +$45 (+9 BB's)

4. ES: $650 New V that's raised ~25% of hands makes it $20 in MP; HJ, CO and BTN all call $20, Hero 3! AJo to $150 from the SB, table folds.
- Net: +$85 (+17 BB's)
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
08-03-2015 , 11:54 AM
So I think I am going to start out updating this every two weeks and will either do it more often (weekly) or less (monthly) depending on how tedious it becomes or if there is interest from other posters to talk about the hands.

Session 3: 7/28/2015, 7 hours (227 hands), 2/5 NL
# of 3! or 4!: 3 (1.3% frequency)


1. ES: $225 (Hero covers). V opens to $25, Hero 3! AA to $100, V calls. Flop 876s, he checks, I shove for $125, he calls, turn 6 river 9 and MHIG.
- Net: +$230 (+46 BB's)

2. ES: $750. Semi-loose V opens to $25 in MP, Hero 3! KK to $80 in LP, BB calls. Pot $240, flop A72r checks thru, turn 9, SB checks, V bets $150, Hero tank/folds and V shows a nice bluff with 33. I should have called down knowing there aren't many combos of AK left since I have KK blockers.
- Net: -$80 (-16 BB's)

3. ES: $1000. MP raises to $25 over a limper, I 3! AKo from SB to $95, V flats. Flop K73cc, I bet $100, V folds.
- Net: +$105 (+21 BB's)
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
08-03-2015 , 11:55 AM
Session 4: 7/28/2015, 5 hours (162 hands), 2/5 NL
# of 3! or 4!: 0 (0.0% frequency)
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
08-03-2015 , 11:56 AM
Session 5: 8/2/2015, 4.7 hours (153 hands), 2/5 NL
# of 3! or 4!: 7 (4.6% frequency)


1. ES: $500. UTG straddles, UTG+1 raises to $45, Hero 3! AKo to $150 in LP, table folds.
- Net: +$60 (+12 BB's)

2. ES: $575. UTG straddles, 4 callers, BTN makes it $50, I 3! AQo from SB to $175, V flats. Flop AT4cc, I shove for $400, V folds. (I probably should have check/raised all-in instead).
- Net: +$230 (+46 BB's)

3. ES: $700. Semi-loose, stuck V raises to $20 in MP, 2 callers in LP, Hero raises to $120 in BB with KQo, V calls. Pot ~$280, Flop Q97dd, I bet $150, V folds.
- Net: +$160 (+32 BB's)

4. ES: $750. Same V from #3 raises to $20 in MP, I 3! AKo from SB to $80, he calls. Flop KJJss, I bet $100, he folds.
- Net: +$80 (+16 BB's)

5. ES: $750. Loose V raises to $20 UTG, one caller, I 3! AJo in LP to $100, OR calls. Flop J96hh, he checks, I bet $100, he folds.
- Net: +$125 (+25 BB's)

6. ES: $750. Loose opener (same as #5) opens to $20 in EP, I 3! AQo in LP to $80 and he folds. Should I ever just play this hand IP to possibly win more rather than just winning the original raise?
- Net: +$25 (+5 BB's)

7. ES: $850. Loose opener (same as #5 & 6 opens to $20 in MP, I 3! KK to $100 from SB, V flats. Flop A84r, I check, he bets $150, I fold. Ace-magnets strike again.
- Net: -$100 (-20 BB's)
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
08-03-2015 , 12:51 PM
session 3, hand 1: I think you can 3bet smaller with ES at 250, 100 makes it more likely that villain will find a fold.

session 5, you seem to flop top pair whenever someone flats your 3bet, nice work

hand 2: with only a psb left I'm also shipping flop. Not a ton of room for a check/ship plus villain will check behind often.

hand 3: given reads that villain is loose and stuck, I can't tell if this 3-bet is for a bluff or for value. (I'd normally assume bluff) Will this villain call with QJ/JT or worse? If so, sizing a bit smaller might be better to keep these hands in. As played 120 might fold out all worse/keep in better.

hand 5: not a fan, even if utg opener is loose. In this situation + hand 6 a key question is: will villain flat you with worse?
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
08-03-2015 , 06:25 PM
I'd say, the only hands I consider to be 3! for value are AA-QQ and AK. The rest are "bluffs" with blocker and high card potential. The one hand I keep going back and forth on is AQ - sometimes I flat and sometimes I 3! with it. I *think* it may have more value as a call but I don't have enough data to determine that yet.

I probably should have checked some of my made hands though - people folded every time I bet in a 3! pot. Could just be negative variance but I could have probably allowed one or two to take a stab. I was on a 3! tear last night to the point I was wondering if anyone was going to adjust, but it doesn't appear they did.
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote
08-12-2015 , 04:08 PM
6. ES: $750. Loose opener (same as #5) opens to $20 in EP, I 3! AQo in LP to $80 and he folds. Should I ever just play this hand IP to possibly win more rather than just winning the original raise?
- Net: +$25 (+5 BB's)

I think our sizing is just s little too big. If we make it 55-60 we get more value. Vs a tighter opponent I am Flatting far more often than I'm 3 betting.
3! Containment Thread: Tracking 200 Hours of Live 3! Outcomes Quote

      
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