Mid-February Update (Kind-of)
The sluggish month has continued - a product of mediocre cards and less than mediocre play. I am basically completely even for the month with rakeback over ~30k hands (Bankroll still ~$9k) . The breakeven stretch is completely normal but I have definitely not being playing my best
I kind of wanted a fresh slate to re-motivate myself, so I decided to put in a sample at 100FF on Partypoker. (Lower rake and more rakeback was tempting)
Recreational players must be eaten alive in this pool! 70% of hands I played were 4-handed with only Regs. I only played ~2k hands and was breakeven but it was super interesting playing most hands against aggressive/competent regulars. These guys still have a lot of leaks and generally are playing many tables at once but there were many spots I feel I was getting exploited.
Usually, I am used to a passive player pool where you can get away with tight folds vs aggression, over-cbetting and not protecting your checking ranges. Whereas it felt like this pool was check raising me everywhere (especially on paired boards) - both with thin value and with bluffs.
The hand below is a good example of where I know I show be playing be a mixed strategy, but I was either autopiloting or believed I wouldn't be exploited when I cbet too frequently.
I ran the hand in PIO and villain played it well, hero did not.. This is a very high frequency check on the flop, and as played a pure check on the river. Oddly, I am quite excited that range bets are getting attacked - because I enjoy being more ambitious with my strategy in spots (trying to mix appropriately). This sample generally highlighted to me an huge area that I play terribly! IP, I am using a range cbet too often, and OOP, I don’t xr anywhere near enough - both in SRP and in 3bet pots.
I’m going to play on GG this week but I am planning a big weekend of study focussed on check raising flops. After some serious lab work, I will play some more on party - I feel it will help my game a lot playing against tougher opponents, and I do think the game is beatable.
Below I have attached snips of 2 different sims I ran on a paired board BTNvBB:
BB Strategy facing a 1/4 Cbet (BTN playing a mixed strategy, Cbet ~40% of time iirc)
BB Strategy facing a 1/3 Range Cbet
I've likely been check raising <10%, let alone 40%. As bencb would say we should go "absolutely bananas" against villains who will cbet too frequently (I love the way he says bananas in his accent). Additionally, this is assuming they will defend like Pio - I would argue they probably overfold, which will increase your xr frequency even more.
The hand selection is usually fairly obviously - FDs and double backdoor draws but the frequencies are far more aggressive than I have been assuming. I will have to dig a lot deeper into these spots (especially as you will be playing turns with a far more merged range after xr) but for this week I will really try to take these spots if the right opportunity arises.