5 bb/100 does not equal winning player, even 15 bb/100 player can be losing (prob isn't), ev bb/100 is just one indicator how good someone is. You should def not be obsessing with difference in bb/100 and ev bb/100

Hey long time fan.

Why NZ, is that where your GF is from?

Do you have like an exit strategy from poker? Any idea how long youll be playing pro for?

Thanks

Do think 'certainty' plays a role; if I was told I'd make $150k or whatever if I kept grinding, I'd worry a lot less about the short term fluctuations. Additionally, the $$ swings would hurt less if I wasn't owed so much by a handful of friends/former horses. People keep telling me they'll pay back eventually, but there's been little to no movement on those debts. Chasing them down and coming up empty is only adding to my frustration.

EV BB is far from perfect and by itself it doesn't necessarily determine a player's winrate. In theory a player could crush early/middle game and struggle in late spots, which would hurt their long term equity. Conversely, they could be average in early/mid game but crush lates for whatever reason although this is far less likely. Despite that, it's the narrative I hear most often, something along the lines of "I do very well in my deeps when I focus blah blah" when the more likely explanation is small sample heat.

With all those caveats out of the way, higher EV BB means you're building better stacks. Obviously that's important in a structure where players are eliminated once they've ran out of chips and the winner is crowned once he's accumulated them all. Regarding a big difference between EV BB/Actual BB or EV Chips/Actual Chips, it's sadly not uncommon as I'm sure cash grinders can attest to to.

Nah, GF is Canadian but she was able to find a job in NZ, so we made it working holiday of sorts. Something new, different, and an excuse to leave the Vancouver winter in favor of warmer climates.

Dunno how long I'll play professionally, the idea was to keep doing it until I found a better option somewhere else. It's almost elusively during downers that I'm willing to take a paycut/try something new; when I'm ripping off tourney scores, there's nothing else I'd rather be doing. Still, the idea of getting a paycheck from a regular job just for 'showing up' and then leaving it all behind on the weekends sounds great.

Assuming this IS just a bad patch and my EV is still $150k+ I'd be hard pressed to find another position that offered similar perks in terms of pay and flexibility. But if my equity decreases and I find myself miserable in the ever more common rough patches, then I'll have to re-evaluate.

Winning day, but still so much heartbreak.

CL of the $215 Battle Royale with ~20 left and per usual I can't win pots in late game. Lost two huge KO spots and then got coolered for the CL with 15 remaining. EV BB for the month is nearly the same as actual BB, but I'm ~2.7M chips under expectation on Stars alone. Probably should stop using the word 'expectation' because at this point I fully expect to get absolutely hosed in any sort of important spot.

Year-to-date could be a lot worse though, I'm hopeful that I can weather this storm and get back to printing ASAP. Certainly can't bink my way out of this unless I keep grinding, so that's what I'll do.

Monthly recaps where I finish in the red are the least fun updates. I somewhat avoided doing it last month, although I left some serious hints.

Was hoping to turn things around in February, but so far it's been more of the same. Lots of deep runs turning into deeper sighs. Sharkscope missed a $2600 score on the 15th, so I only lost $3200 for the month. And while it's been an incredibly frustrating start to 2020, I know it could be worse.



Being down 'only' $5k is almost encouraging. If this is the worst stretch, if this is as bad as it gets, then I can certainly get through it. Even if I isolate the downer by itself, others have much larger losses over much longer longer periods.



Ok, mildly gross.

But given my ABI and game selection, all it takes is a handful of solid days to clear the losses and getting back into the win column. Or I'm one epic Sunday from being up $100k. Have had a very relaxing day off today and I'm legit excited to get back to work tomorrow.

What do you think of the recent accusations from Rob? How clean do you think are the games in pokerstars?

Bump

For those who aren't aware, the gist of the accusations are "The last two WCOOP ME winners (SvZff and wann2play) cheated/were ghosted." PS confiscated the funds of 'wann2play' but nothing has been confirmed about SvZff. Don't think it's fair for me speculate because I don't know the guy/am unfamiliar with his game. Will say that a few people I know/think are reputable did vouch for him. But would I be surprised if an unknown/random grinder in a similar spot was guilty? Not in the slightest. And that's not meant to be a knock on SvZff, it's more of read on the general reg population being scumbags with little to no sense of morality.

So are the games clean? Let me answer that this way:

Currently the Coronavirus scare has people in a tizzy and one of the main defenses is to frequently wash your hands. If you just look at your hands, they probably don't appear to be dirty. I mean, most people wouldn't walk around with visible stains, but a lack of visible stains doesn't mean bacteria isn't present. And if you put those same hands under a microscope, you'd find out the truth --

They're ****ing filthy.

That's how I feel about the state of the games; while they might appear clean ish, there's a whole lot of filth hiding in plain sight.

Ghosting is incredibly common, either between friends/individual players or within a more organized group (i.e. stables). Don't want to name names, but I've been:

1) Asked to ghost players on several occasions (I declined)
2) Told that others (including previous backers/coaches/friends) would 'always' do it

Stars does a better job policing the game than other sites (I'm look at you, Party) who removed tools needed to help determine if others are cheating in some manner. And that's something, I guess. But it's clearly not enough. Just look at the punishments -- confiscating all of 'wann2play's win might seem severe, but it's a slap on the wrist. If that sort of thing happened in any other industry, it would be considered fraud and the offender would be subject to criminal charges. Paying back the money they stole wouldn't be enough, as they'd face additional financial penalties along with potential incarceration. But in the poker world, confiscating funds is somehow considered capital punishment. It shouldn't be. Oooh, PS took back the money he stole. So what? Are we supposed to be impressed? It'd be like if the police, upon catching a bank robber red-handed with a bag of cash, only asked that person to return the money. What would stop that person from trying again tomorrow? Or the following day?

Without adequate penalties in place, cheating in poker will continue to happen at an alarmingly high rate. There needs to be reason to discourage people from doing the 'wrong' thing, because clearly one's moral code isn't enough of a deterrent. Sadly I don't think sites really care because cheaters still pay rake and this sort of stuff only comes to light when other players dig deep enough to uncover the truth.

Already a long-winded tl;dr post, so I'll come back with a March update sometime this weekend!

Its not that they dont really care about cheaters. When i asked pokerstars support on the phone why they dont chase legally the cheaters they told it doesnt worth the hustle because they dont have anything to gain. So yes i agree cheating will continue as long as people are not involved legally and every scumbag should be outed is the least we can do

I can't stop a horse from getting deep into makeup; but I can prevent most theft from stake money. Ck yr PMs.

Can't help but think that it's "not worth the hustle" because it doesn't directly affect their bottom line. While players are defrauding other players, PS continues to print. For now.

Have a longstanding policy where I ignore spammy affiliate PMs.

March 1st-8th Graph:



*Me when I look at this month's results and realize I'm not down money*



Not up a ton, but it's a start. Finished 12th in the $215 Battle Royale for $3k after getting 15th last week and felt much more at peace with this score than the previous deep run.

Glad to see you're running better. Lunch on me when you're in SD.

<3

Might be there in June ish, will let you know.

His accusations seem pretty dumb. No ones ever going to get banned for ghosting. Whatever wann2play was banned for wasn't ghosting. It was probably for vpn'ing (Dude randomly appeared during a COOP, pretty sure brand new account) or multi-accounting. I'm not going to unnecessarily **** on stars, but they don't do any sort of investigation of peoples accounts until they try to withdraw or win big. Had a friend who vpn'd until he drilled a Milly for 100k. Then they froze his account.

The szvff accusations is basically "Dom Horse, had to have ghosted" from what I can tell too.

Honestly games in 2020 are going to be reasonably clean, especially on stars. At least in MTTs. Most issues like botting/cheating exist in non MTT formats like SNGs and Cash from what I can tell.

I know people aren't here for my thoughts on Coronavirus, but I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention the current pandemic, wish all of you good health, and provide an update on the current situation here in New Zealand.

As of today NZ only has 600 cases. We're on Day 7 of mandated lockdown; all non essential businesses have been closed and residents are supposed to stay indoors. We're allowed to go out to buy groceries but it's Hunger Games esque as each family sends only one represnative. From what I've read it's far worse in other countries, and even for residents of NZ I'm one of the lucky few who can work from home and make the same/if not more at my job.

Feels somewhat innappropriate to talk about a silver lining in the face of a pandemic, but if there is one -- prize pools have been larger and games have been softer. Wouldn't quite call it a 'Second poker boom,' but it's something.

Thankfully I don't have to post one of those because I actually made money in March.



EV BB/100: 12.9
Games: 740
Hours: 197
Profit: $16,700

Third consecutive month running 5M+ chips under expectation, but I'll focus on it being the first profitable month of the year. Clearly wasn't all negative variance, in fact I had some amazing rungood in my biggest score of the month ($5k) when my opponent sat out HU and I was able to click the raise button for 10 minutes straight to ship the tournament. Never had that happen before, was pretty sweet.

Gonna be grinding hard this month because with three more weeks of lockdown in place, there's not much else to do. It'll get a bit more complicated on Sunday when NZ changes the clocks and I'm forced to wake up an hour earlier to maintain my current grind schedule. It was already a struggle to start @ 530 AM with the $55 Mini Bounty Builder HR. Starting @ 430 seems near impossible but I'll try.

Might be only me but you sound very different since starting the mtt grind
Gl in April boss

Don't know if I sound different, but I certainly feel different. An increase in witheredness, if you will. Could be due to a multitude of factors, although variance and lack of breaks/flexibility are the most likely triggers. I do miss being able to quickly end a session and get away from the computer to clear my head, but now that simply isn't possible. As a whole, the overall experience remains enjoyable. I look forward to grinding, having stacks/deeps is fun and discussing hands/spots never feel like 'work.' It's just that MTTs seem to have far more moments where I want to throw my laptop out the window, and the frustration felt from those moments happens to stay with more for longer periods of time.

Quick updates

Poker: EV BB at 14, 250 games played, +$3k ish profit.

Health/Fitness: I know it's a minor thing to complain about when other people are dealing with matters of a life and death, but still -- Due to this pandemic/mandatory lockdown I am getting fatter by the day. With gyms closed, my exercise options are limited and I've always been more of a 'throw weights around' kind of guy. GF and I actually did one of those Youtube body weight workouts and it was something, I guess. At the very least it made me feel less sluggish and gross.

April Recap!



Games: 730
Hours: 160
Profit: +$4500
ABI: $85



Let's get the whining out of the way:

Still haven't had a $5k+ bink since October and deep down inside my soul, the accumulated tilt continues to build. If there's a silver lining, it's that I'm somehow +$40k over that period of time. Truly has become a "Hard way to make an easy living."

But the best news to come out of April is that I posted my highest EV BB ever, a shade over 18/100. My previous record was 14.5 (last month) so that's a fairly significant increase. Don't want to pat myself on the back too hard, I think the jump in equity is more due to softness of the games/Covid-19 than any theory related breakthroughs on my end. Still, I'll take the W.

NZ moved down to Level 3, but gyms are still closed. I've struggled to stay active, I can't find the motivation to do the 'bodyweight' workouts at home and I'm absolutely crushing food. I know I'm going to have a lot of work ahead of me once the restrictions are completely lifted. Will probably post some fitness goals and offer freerolls at that point. But until then, I'll do what I do best.

I know the bodyweight stuff problem. Have not done anything at home. It all feels worthless once you are used to moving real weights. Thank god gyms reopen in 2 weeks here

Moved down to Level 2 a few days ago, so thankfully gyms are open and I can start to get rid of these pandemic pounds. Headed there after I write this post.

Still in search of that elusive $5k+ score, it's bordering on ridiculous now. I imagine that any other reg who went through a stretch like this ($90 ABI, 6 months/5k games) would be down heaps yet somehow I'm still +$40k. To be fair, I did have two $4k scores earlier this month so perhaps the number I'm setting is somewhat arbitrary.

It'll all be a moot point if I can rip off the $109 Main; going into Day 2 with 250 BBs. There are 10,000+ players left, so that's like a .01%?



Overall results and EV have been mediocre, I'm hovering a tad over 10-11 EV BB/100 but I think that's brought down by a tiny sample of abysmal results at 300+ BB stacks. Seems that each day I'm running fairly deep in something exciting, eventually I'll close one of 'em out. Given that they've decided to make SCOOP last longer, I've got more opportunities on the horizon.

Did not ship the Main. If I remember correctly, I busted the thing within an hour or two of the restart.

This.

Got close today; lost a HU that would have put me over the $5k mark, got 19th in a $109 SCOOP ($60k ut, 8th for $5k+) and then 9th in the $55 Builder. Still have a day left of SCOOP but the month is officially over on this side of the world so without further ado...

Games: 627
Profit: ~$11,800



Graph is missing the 'Real Name' Party Poker MTTs and I'm up $1500-$2000 in those.

Still negative @ 300+ BB stacks but pulled the overall numbers up a bit.



On to June!

Beautiful all in adj #, I take that all day over a 5k bink. Glgl

Used to agree wholeheartedly. After this stretch, I'm more on the fence.

So while May's results were fine/five figures, it didn't feeeeeeeeel fine. Had two solid days and the rest were somewhere along the disappointment spectrum, but I suppose that's just MTT life.

GF went back to Canada last week, so volume should increase because I'm down to zero social obligations. At any point over the next few months, I'll almost assuredly be doing one of the following:

Eat
Grind
Lift
TV/Video Games
Sleep

I'd prefer if she stayed, but she needs to get back to work and Canada will let her in since she's a citizen. On the plus side, I should be able to shed some of the pandemic pounds and have greater opportunities to bink my way out of this downer.

Two more tiny bits of runbad:

1) Broke my chair. It's a cheap plastic one that came with the apartment and back of it cracked when I sat down. I'm still able to grind in it but requires more balance. Told my landlord that I 'must have gotten too fat during the lockdown' and he didn't even feign a smile. Just stared blankly at me and said that he'll try to replace it soon.

2) Lost my wallet. Was walking home after picking up groceries and it must have fell out of my pocket. No idea how it happened. I suppose it still could be somewhere in the apartment but I've looked all over. So I've got about $600 in cash that has to tide me over until I get my replacement cards (4-5 weeks at the earliest). Feeling super busto!

Possible pick pocket? ;(
I assume cards etc cancelled etc?

Doubt it's a pickpocket as none of the cards have been used yet. More likely it somehow fell out of my jacket when I was walking home or it's somewhere around the house. Was pretty upset about it for a few days, but once I accepted that the wallet was gone forever, it felt like a weight had been lifted off my shoulders. My replacement NZ bank card should arrive soon and once it does, I'll be back to eating more than just ramen noodles.



Had my first $5k+ cash of the year! Unfortunately it was only for $5500 and while I'm certainly happy to break the streak, part of me wishes I won $4999 so I could keep this complain train going. Hopefully this marks the start of some heat and I don't have to keep a record of X number of months without a $5500+ cash.