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Old 02-16-2016, 10:59 AM   #51
TheDefiniteArticle
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

lol live poker
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Old 02-16-2016, 01:02 PM   #52
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

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Originally Posted by Kangal_ View Post

Pretty gutted for Leicester really, Wasilewski should be shot for that madness in the last minute. A draw would have been a fair result over the piece. Kasper Schmeichel's save from Giroud was absolutely sensational and he didn't deserve to be on the losing side.

They've got a 2 week break with the FA cup now, so hopefully that won't harm momentum too much!
Idk I disagree, think we were all over Leicester really. I mean 11 vs 11 was close i guess but Simpson could have had about 8 yellows and it was never a pen for me.
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Old 02-16-2016, 02:20 PM   #53
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

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Idk I disagree, think we were all over Leicester really. I mean 11 vs 11 was close i guess but Simpson could have had about 8 yellows and it was never a pen for me.
I mean Arsenal had zero shots on target while it was 11vs11. Possession stats were in your favour, but I thought Leicester had more penetration. Obv you were super dominant when Leicester went to 10, and it was backs to the walls for them. Pen debatable for sure. I see a lot given were the attacking player forces contact from the defender, which seem really unfair. This was one of them.

Got Chelsea/Real double on tonight. Chelsea are 5/1 away to PSG which seems really good value.
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Old 02-17-2016, 10:50 AM   #54
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

On a small downswing the last couple of days. Dropped around $2k at 200/400/500 tables. The 5 zoom games have been dreadful during the day, so I'm definitely going to steer away from them midweek for the next little while.

Not much to report, otherwise. I've really not played a lot of poker, and when I have it's just been lots of boring things like having top/top in 3bet pots and not winning. Chelsea were definitely good value at 5/1 yesterday, but unfortunately we could get the win through.

Gutted not to be in Dublin for the EPT this week. I have quite a lot of friends over there for the series and it sounds like really good fun. I'm looking forward to Barcelona in the summer!
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Old 02-17-2016, 11:17 AM   #55
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

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I mean Arsenal had zero shots on target while it was 11vs11. Possession stats were in your favour, but I thought Leicester had more penetration. Obv you were super dominant when Leicester went to 10, and it was backs to the walls for them. Pen debatable for sure. I see a lot given were the attacking player forces contact from the defender, which seem really unfair. This was one of them.

Got Chelsea/Real double on tonight. Chelsea are 5/1 away to PSG which seems really good value.
Yeah shots on target is not super relevant tho imo, it's more forcing the ball into good attacking areas. Would agree that Leicester maybe had a tiny edge, but i expect over 90 mins we'd have ended on top anyway. These kinda tell the story;





From Michael Caleys expected goal model (regressed shot type on scoring % to have Expected value of each shot, found it to be better predictor of team quality than any other metric.)
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Old 02-17-2016, 11:33 AM   #56
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

oh that's cool, this kind of thing makes me much more interested in football
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Old 02-19-2016, 08:26 AM   #57
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

Today has been going pretty well after a few days of breakeven/slight losing poker. I played an interesting hand at 400nl where I 4bet/called 88 facing a BTN open and SB 3bet. I had a note that villain had 3/5b small PPs from the blinds vs steal positions, so figured this was a good range adjustment? He called me a braindead fish in chat afterwards, so I don't think he agreed.

I direct bubbled two $109/82 turbos this morning. Both were in annoying ICM spots where by I have AQ/77 and 10bb when there are quite a few 3-6bb stacks left in. Putting it there is obviously +cEV. Not sure how it sits in $EV?
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Old 02-19-2016, 10:01 AM   #58
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

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Eventually he announces 'fk this guy' (apparently that means call) and throws a chip in the pot. I table my hand and he turns over JT as if it's the worst beat ever suffered.
Haha makes me wanna try playing live

Nice thread Kangal Gl will follow
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Old 02-19-2016, 01:01 PM   #59
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

Just lost JJ<66 all in on KK2hh flop for 2/6 to bust a tournament there with $5k and change up top. Pretty sad face right now.

Appreciate the follow Mr Lifeguard. Live poker can be great fun, you should definitely give it a try if you haven't already!
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Old 02-19-2016, 02:21 PM   #60
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

That live story made me legit LOL haha. Def need to start saying "fk this guy" when i play live

Unlucky about the beat man, pretty gross.

GL and subbed
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Old 02-20-2016, 07:13 AM   #61
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

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That live story made me legit LOL haha. Def need to start saying "fk this guy" when i play live

Unlucky about the beat man, pretty gross.

GL and subbed
Hey, thanks for the sub and kind words man. Gl to you too.

Back and battling at the tables this morning, as the games looked good and were missing some of the usual tough early start regs. I have posted a couple of hand histories below. I've been feeling so so tired the past few days, and not really sure why. I've had two coffees since 8am and still finding it really difficult to keep my eyes open.

1) vs Unknown, assume reggy from stats and sizing. Sizing and timing on the river seemed v nutted, so made a pretty big fold. Open to thoughts on this?

http://www.weaktight.com/h/56c845b6d...b4708?simple=1

2) vs whale. River is quite thin, but I think I play better vs his range by betting this than I do checking and potentially folding vs 1 of a million potential hands turned into a bluff. Results are quite funny

http://www.weaktight.com/h/56c846d1d...b475b?simple=1

Also managed to find AA vs AK BvB vs a reg, which is a really nice spot obviously.

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Old 02-20-2016, 07:49 AM   #62
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

River isn't showing for some reason on the AKhh hand, but it's the 2c
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Old 02-20-2016, 06:08 PM   #63
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

Weekends

Wow, the difference between the zoom pools on a Saturday night and midweek daytime is unreal. Black and white. Night and day (literally...). Anyway, I absolutely smashed it this evening, played super well and focuses all session and was lucky to find some really nice spots vs weaker players and extract a lot of $. I tried some new things with parts of my ranges that I'm really happy with, and think will be great exploits going forward. One big thing involving bluffing rivers in spots where we have a very slight range disadvantage, but an overall very wide and uncapped range vs a tighter capped range (BB defence vs a min open from any position, for example).

We briefly got over the $11k month mark, but I dusted off 250bb in a questionable spot. I think I'm pretty happy with the play and would probably play my combo similarly in future.

I don't really want to post the HH, but basically we open black KK UTG and get 3b by MP. We 4bet smallish and he calls and we go chk/call, chk/chk, chk/jam on QJ7hhs Ac 8c.

If anyone has any thoughts on my line, please let me know.

I'm going to call it a night shortly and watch some TV in my bed. Hoping for a really good night's sleep so that I can wake up feeling refreshed for the Sunday madness. Fingers crossed that the games are this good again.
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Old 02-20-2016, 08:18 PM   #64
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

TT fold is prob fairly explo but probably fine at zoom500_lol, I tend to bet turn more often than not in these positions though

the 250bb KK you re talking about doesnt seem too bad but most people are just gonna call it off whenever they block AA given the line you took so the nut blockers do not seem this relevent
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Old 02-21-2016, 11:53 AM   #65
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

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TT fold is prob fairly explo but probably fine at zoom500_lol, I tend to bet turn more often than not in these positions though

the 250bb KK you re talking about doesnt seem too bad but most people are just gonna call it off whenever they block AA given the line you took so the nut blockers do not seem this relevent
Ha, yeah it's 100% a zoom500 adjustment. I don't think betting the turn there is that great, but I'm sure it's really close. Yeah, I got snapped in double time by AK in the KK hand. I think his call is pretty optimistic tbh. My 4bet bluff range is Axs and some AQo in these positions, and my value range is QQ+ so black kings definitely seems like one of the best combos to bluff with.

On a more positive note, I just chopped the Sunday edition $109t 3-handed as slight chip lead for a little under $4k. Really happy with how I played throughout. Was pretty short through the bubble and final 3/2 tables, but stopped myself from oi-jamming a couple of spots that were close-ish. Ive played most days this month and it's now sitting at +$13k, which is really really good. Hopefully I'll just bink the SM this evening and take the remainder of the year off!

Have a great Sunday people.
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Old 02-21-2016, 11:59 AM   #66
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

In.

SN outed?
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Old 02-21-2016, 12:44 PM   #67
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

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In.

SN outed?
Hi, I'm sure some people know it. But I'd rather as few people as possible find out. So preferably not.

Thanks for the subscribe!
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Old 02-21-2016, 01:16 PM   #68
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

10th sunday million. Omg. I flipped for a ticket (65 fav) the other day and lost, but this a whole different level, lol. Musta been tilted for quite some time.
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Old 02-22-2016, 06:05 AM   #69
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

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10th sunday million. Omg. I flipped for a ticket (65 fav) the other day and lost, but this a whole different level, lol. Musta been tilted for quite some time.
Hey, yeah I was pretty down for a few days after both of my deep runs in the SM. But it is what it is. Hopefully I'll get another shot at it some time and will get a better result.

---

A good friend of mine put £20 into his betfair account over the weekend, and spun it up to £19.5k playing video roulette. Mixed feelings. I'm really happy for him as he's not exactly loaded, and that money will be huge for him. But he's not a big gambler in general, so I've got my fingers crossed that he can keep a hold of it and not slip down the degen-punter route that I've seen take so many others. In my experience, people have a real tendency to lose the plot after a big score at games of chance. I'll try my best to impart some wisdom where I can.

I ended up skipping the big Sunday MTTs this week, as again I wasn't feeling overly motivated to grind through to the small hours. Skipping something like the Sunday Million has a large opportunity cost for me, but feels like a good decision given that my head wasn't in it.
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Old 02-23-2016, 12:40 PM   #70
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

Hello.

I don't really have much to update on, but I wanted to drop in and post something just to keep this thing going. The month is still going well, I've been battling a lot at the 400 and 600nl tables and winning. I seem to be holding my own. The main problem is that midstakes on stars is a bit of a joke. I don't have a seatscript. Never have. But without one its seemingly impossible to get a session ticking over. Tables break and die all the time, and if you're not constantly scanning lobbies you end up a) with no one to play against, or b) playing HU vs the best regs in the pool. I dont want to become part of the problem, but I might have to cave and find a script soon.

Two hands with Queens

Dodging this Riggedstars classic

http://www.weaktight.com/h/56cc6b2bd...b47cd?simple=1

Getting snapped by both on the turn. Sigh...oh wait.

http://www.weaktight.com/h/56cc75fcd...b4710?simple=1
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Old 02-23-2016, 12:50 PM   #71
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

is utg+1 a reg??
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Old 02-24-2016, 04:43 AM   #72
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

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is utg+1 a reg??
Seems to be yeah.
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Old 02-24-2016, 06:11 AM   #73
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

reg or 'reg'
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Old 02-24-2016, 07:18 AM   #74
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

Pleading the 5th on this one.
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Old 02-25-2016, 02:45 PM   #75
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Re: 2016: Diversification (Fk EV$, I want the real thing)

If you are who i think you are, you extreme coolered me with A7?
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