Shame we didn't get the chance to meet up in barca. Hopefully we'll get another opportunity. Intrigued as to what you wanna write about, do it! Glgl

Bump!

Gonna be bringing this back to life I think, as have found a new lease of life with regards to the game. Way more motivated to work hard on and off the tables than I have been in years, and I'm actually enjoying putting in the hours again.

What have I been up to in the interim?

Well, basically, I got stung for mid to high 5-figure £s by someone close to me towards the end of last year, which really put a dent in my cash flow, bankroll, life roll, motivation etc.

It really hurt and I didn't deal with it very well at all. Went into my shell a bit and ended up frittering/punting off a lot of my remaining cash in a bit of a downward spiral, in which I went from financially very comfortable, to pretty damn close to busto. I wasn't really able to get my head straight again until the beginning of '17.

Since then I've knuckled down a lot, moved down a few limits (and then back up! ) and frankly, been crushing it. Pleased to say that I feel I've turned a pretty big corner within the past 6 months. Excited for the future and definitely much better at poker than I was 9 months ago, if a little poorer. Every cloud, etc...



Mid August to present day graph

Volume has been lacking a little as I played a lot of MTTs throughout the summer, and was also lucky enough to get into a pretty big, gambley live mixed game which ran for a couple of weeks in my local. I ran pretty good in it and made a wedge, but there were genuinely a few people in the games who didn't know the rules to the most of the games. So it was actually quite low variance money.

Going forward

I'm gradually regaining the confidence to move back up to the big boy stakes. But I also have a prop bet with a friend that I can beat 50nl-200nl zoom at 7.2bb+ over my most recent 100k hand sample, so I've got to get that out of the way too. Initially it was 50-100nl zoom at a 8bb/100 winrate, but I renegotiated as I was getting super bored at 50 zoom.

Hope you're all doing well, and that I can keep this thing going for a while yet.

Thanks for reading!

Cool to see this thread back, GL again!

Subbed, GL with propbet

glgl!

Gl broski, what happened sucks, I feel your pain, had a bunch of those happen to me as well, people suck

Sounds brutal man

But glad to see this back and to hear you're enjoying yourself again. Best of luck!

Thanks guys! Good to have you here.

Ain't that the truth; I'm basically over it now though. Sorry you've been through similar, it's rubbish!

Thanks fella, update your thread more, it's really good.

Crypto Musings

Crypto is something which I've been getting into in a big way over the past year or so. I've done pretty well with Ethereum investments, and over the past 20 weeks I've converted a lot of my portfolio over to XRP, which is currently under-going a pretty big pump from the Asian market. Think the market cap has increased from $9.1b to $9.5b in the past 12 hours, which is good news for me. Ripple has huge potential for real world implications, so it's a pretty safe long term investment IMO (or at least 'safe' in the realms of Crypto, where long term most coins are just going to zero).

For anyone who's interested in getting involved, I'd say we're probably expecting a smallish correction before the Ripple Swell event on the 16th October, followed by another big pump to the $0.40 (maybe higher, maybe slightly lower) or so mark, afterwards. So probably setting a buy order at $0.215 or so for short term investments will show a good return. For long term investments, just buy and hold at whatever price you can get, and consolidate on any future dips is a good option. Long range I (and a lot of clever people) are expecting it to go to $2+ within the next 18mo or so.

Interesting to note over the last month how the the disconnect between BTC and XRP has become more pronounced, as a lot of AltCoins just rise and fall based on the current position of BTC. XRP has actually been pretty polar to BTC, rising when it falls, and vice-versa. I'd expect Ethereum and XRP to branch further out and become a lot less reliant on BTC fate over the next year or so.

If anyone out there is similarly interested in the AltCoin world, and wants to chat, then hit me up and we can swap numbers for WhatsApp or something.

Cheers

Also, is there a particular moderator I should contact to get the thread title changed?

Subbbbd

Awesome to see you're back in the PGC+poker mixer mate. Sounds like you've had a pretty up and down period - seems like you're kinda out the other end now?

Definitely interested in chatting crypto although i'm currently the equivalent of a poker play money reg. I legit have no idea. I'm looking to invest a chunk of money over the next couple weeks. Drop me a message on skype.

gl boss!

fyp

lmfao. that didn't have the same ring to it

sn?!

Haha, just going off of the banter from your thread

i rate, wp

Ty sir

Yeah definitely feel like I'm through the other side of it mate, thanks for dropping by. More than happy to chat some crypto with you and give some advice/research sources. Not really using Skype at the moment though, you on whatsapp? Drop me a PM if so

Haha, le bantz. He's right though!

It's awesome that more people are getting into it, but I think you need to be really careful with posts like this. Tons of clever people are obviously also NOT expecting ripple to go to $2 in next 18 months, or it wouldn't be price it is. You would never speak about a stock with this kind of predictive certainty, and crypto is obv developing inefficient market but still I think you have to be really careful.

There are a lot of reasons to be negative on ripple too (what's the reason for the token, centralised, what happens when developers sell even though they 'locked it up'. ) Like I agree with a lot of what you said, it is uniquely placed amongst cryptos on the corporate side, just think you need to have more respect for market pricing and less respect for the power of your research as a default.

Awesome to see you back into poker anyway and gl, we'll probably be playing a bunch over the next few months.

Hey, thanks for following along. Firstly, I think you're one of the most worthwhile, regular posters around these parts. I tend to either learn a lot from the things you say, or agree in principle. Maybe I should have prefaced my original post on Crypto with a big dose of 'Do Your Own Research', but frankly I didn't feel a user base as savvy as this one would need it. But yes, everyone should feel free to do their own research before following anything I say in this blog (be it poker strategy, crypto predictions, or literally anything else). Please don't lose your house because I said so.

This is just an ineffective statement. Speculation is at the core of investment, and Crypto is probably the most speculative, and inherently risk-based market of all. There is no formula for current market value * market speculation, that's not how the share price works. The reasons for the price being as low as it is are many; Ripple isn't currently live, 60% of all currency escrowed for 5 years, still in end-user recruitment and onboarding phase, low (relative to BTC/ETH) levels of external marketing, etc.

Regarding the risks surrounding XRP; yes there is a inherent risk with the concept of developers escrowing 60% of all coinage for a 5 year period. They could all decide to sell one day and the market value of the coin would capitulate, but IMO the risk is pretty small given that the coin would essentially lose all worth overnight, and why would they devs want that?

Greatest risk to Ripple is that the banks create their own instantaneous transfer coin, rather than buying in. Either way, something will dethrone SWIFT within 5 years, and Ripple is the current front-runner.

Thanks for the first bit, definitely not trying to argue but more just encouraging discussion because generally poker atittude is 'lol crypto it's going to be huge. Buy factom dude it's going to moon. You guys heard about this potcoin, pretty sure it'll 10x this month' etc etc, with probably less than 10% of them having slightest inkling of what they're talking about! Obviously from ^ you actually understand what you're buying, but yeah definitely think that isn't the case for a ton of poker players thinking they are the wolf of wall street making profits in the biggest bull market of all time with zero understanding of economic theory, and are going to get burnt pretty bad at some point.

On the pricing side of things, obviously there is a price of risk, even if it's super hard to model. But if it was common knowledge that ripple had 50% chance of going to $2 in two years it would obviously not be 20 cents now. Extrapolate to 25% chance etc etc, and also accounting for the fact that the smartest people have the biggest volumes by HUGE ratios (and thus the biggest effect on the price), that's why I thought your $2 statement was just a bit off. I generally back the market over myself until I have a pretty huge reason not to, but I could be wrong to have so much faith, and obviously if you have higher risk tolerance (put a lower price on risk) than the average investor that's already a reason to buy.

TLDR- For me to think the price is wrong (and buy/sell), I need to understand why I know better than those setting the price- but this is way more on a short term timeframe, on longer timeframes like the two years you mentioned it's less important, it was more the $2 comment I was a bit meh on, but semantics I guess.

And yeah 100% agree with this, paragraph, and tons of companies I respect a ton are endorsing/ involved in it. Honestly the only reason I never bought ripple is the dev holdings, just think it has a higher % chance of going zero than any other non nonsense coin due to their ability to react to really bad news and wipe out whole market cap before I have any chance to blink.

Haha yeah you're definitely right about there being a lot of not smart, copy-cat money in the crypto market. There are also a lot of charlatans selling their 'expert advise' because they luckboxed Ethereum right before it bulled to new ATHs. At the very least I'm giving my info for free, and I'd like to think it comes from a semi-educated place.

AFAIU it's a cryptologically safe escrow, and the figures regarding percentage and time held are part of the Ripple white paper. So it's not like individual devs can sell off their 3% or whatever, and any mass sell off would (should?) incur legal action. Again, I'm not 100% on this stuff, so DYOR.

Any advice for whales on how to efficiently educate themselves on the ins and outs of crypto?

Asking for a friend

Graph since the previous update. Things have been going pretty well still. Good chance I'm not pool-selecting well enough on the 500z front, so that's something I can do better on going forward. Seems fairly soft mid-morning UK time though. I'm also playing between 5-20 MTTs a day on the side, so volume in terms of purely hands played is a little better than it seems.

Some hands:

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