did some modeling today. was interested in examining the nature of the random variables defined as {combined weekday daily profit}, {" weekday weekly "}, and {" weekday monthly "} upon their convergence. the way the variance simulator does this is by Monte Carlo simulations (that is, generating randomly generated draws from the theoretical probability distribution by using user-inputted parameters [versus just graphing the actual probability distribution of this random variable, which we cannot do given we don't know the function itself]). Note that 25,000 random draws have been taken, which in practice is more than enough to force the empirical graph to be almost indistinguishable from the true convergence graph.
Each of the rows corresponds to a tournament I play on my most recently updated daily schedule (they don't have titles, but should be obvious which ones are which to the bovada grinders). I drew field size/places paid from memory of what they typically are, and for the ones I drew a blank on I simply copied what they were in today's iteration of the specific tournament. ROI percentages were estimates from talking to other grinders/my own projections of what my theoretical ROI is in each field.
First:
daily schedule (click)
the rightmost column is "1" for daily profit, "5" for weekly profit, and "20" for (4-week) monthly profit. Again, I am only modeling my daily schedule. This is to say I am omitting special tournaments (e.g. GSPO3) and, obviously, my meaty Sunday schedule. When I drop below 6 tables, and don't have a tournament I normally play coming up, I typically add something below $22 (which I normally omit) to fill the space up. This is also excluded from the model.
Results:
dist_daily
data_daily (click)
dist_weekly
data_weekly (click)
dist_monthly
data_monthly (click)
What intuitions can we draw from this? Roughly 2/3 of the time, I will lose money or make a very small amount on a given day. Weekly, this slims down to 2/5 of the time. Monthly, it is comforting to note that it slims to considerably less than 1/5 of the time.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zO-N_8Whes
Last edited by angel zera; 09-30-2015 at 02:34 AM.