The next time you wonder why some people think of you as a pretentious ****, just reread this comment about lol theoretical winrates.

I can see why it'd be suspicious that I'm upswinging if this account had been made two days ago but to assume that he made a backup account five months ago and then chilled on it for the possibility to use in an internet argument is kind of borderline gaslighting. I do feel bad that I may have parroted a couple turns of phrase upswinging used (some of those are pretty common but I definitely cribbed the 'climate change' thing from him), hopefully it doesn't lead to people taking him less seriously in the future since I do appreciate his posts (if nobody else does) even if he does admittedly seem like a bit of a bitter cynic who ran bad at PLO lifetime.

That spiderman picture did make me laugh out loud though, that was awesome.

Anyway cuse I'm sorry for upsetting you, hope you bink a tournament or just sun run forever and never have to worry about any of these impending sea changes. I might think you're delusional but I also think you're a nice guy.

I don't know whether Jurament is Upswinging, and don't care. However I have noticed Upswinging badmouthing NL and advocating switching to mixed limit games in other popular threads. Makes me wonder why he cares so much - if NL is ultimately doomed players will, of course, have to switch to other games, but no evidence I've seen says that is imminent in poker markets I'm familiar with.

You have to play at least 20-40 and ideally 40-80 or higher fixed limit games to make reasonable money. I wonder how many places around the country really spread mid-to-high stakes mixed games - for me, like for Cuse, it is a 2 hour drive to the one room that has these games in my area. And there is no game selection - it is one or two tables at peak hours.

Upswinging sounds like Mason Malmouth when he famously predicted that big bet poker had no future, a prediction made not too long before the poker "boom" which brought the explosion in NL.

The large poker room in my market will not spread any game that is not Hold'em, Omaha, or Omaha Hi/Lo.

I care so much because I'm selfish. I really enjoy poker and I'd like to play a little cash when I'm an OMC/ think it should still be played in casinos for significant money ... but the way things look makes me skeptical it will last even 10 more years.

Mixed games are the best games (both for recs and pros) for many reasons. However, it needs a big push/ publicity in order for the average rec to make it their main game. Mix games have an insanely good opportunity to explode (and never die out if that moment comes). Ffs the average rec and even pros think Texas Holdem is the only form of poker, that it's the best/ most enjoyable to play which it's obv not. There's a whole other world of poker most recs have never known about.

For serious recs you brought up some good points. TBH you're sorta ****ed/ it's not worth it to make the commute regularly. Besides the occasional poker trip you're handcuffed to whatever your home casino spreads... and unfortunately it's holdem and Omaha as DC said. There are a ton of recs and regs who just stopped playing poker due to this. They get bored/ lose too much and they have no other options to try their luck so they quit/ cut back.

Cuse is a professional. Not a serious rec. he can and should live wherever the best games are. There's no excuse why he or any other pro can't pick up and move if that's what the job requires. Or at the very least take extended poker trips if that's what it takes. He's not going to be a winner in mix games soon either, it's a slow process... the earlier he learns them the better off he is.

I still can't believe how many seemingly smart people are in denial about no limit dying. And when I say dying I mean not being able to support yourself/ family off it alone. NL will always be played... just like 2-4 limit is still being spread in dinky casinos all over the country now. NL will be the same. What have you seen/ experienced to disagree with me? I mean look... its mind boggling to believe anything different if you objectively look at the facts.

I never said what site I played on...

I mean, I already laid out that I know what I'm beating the game for, I know what I'm beating other games for... of course I'm going to keep an eye on games when I'm not in them to have a feel for how hard/soft they are, and how much I can make in them. If you want to take that as pretentious, that's your call. I also know what a few other players make in those games (roughly) and have my opinions on where their skill level is, so I can deduce from that about what I'd make.

You may need to look up the definition of gaslighting.

Yes, it was, upswingament.

I'm not upset, and I appreciate it, but I'm not sun running.

I've seen some evidence in some markets that some games are getting tougher, but I have very little reason to believe there won't be plenty of beatable 2/5 and 5/T games in most markets for several years, if not forever.

Most of us beating 5/T for a good winrate would probably have to play 60/120+ to clear similar profits in the long run...

Lol... Yeah, I mean, I could see 5/T+ drying up, but I would be somewhat surprised if 2/5 died. I do think some of the middling live NLHE pros will be squeezed out in the next few years, and until they are there could be some reduced winrates for all, but once they're squeezed out I think things will be back to normal for the crushers. Pretty sure I shared that view with upswinging before ITT.

The only way most recs will make mixed games their main game would be if there were way less recs. Mixed games aren't as good on TV, because they aren't as simple. Casual recs want to play what they see on TV. In a future where most cash games are mixed games, there would be way fewer total cash games running.

There is virtually no opportunity for mixed games to explode. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't see it. They may grow as people who came in during the boom gain interest in them, but I doubt you'll ever see a quantity of mixed games anything like NLHE currently has.

No, I should live wherever I can find the best balance of earnings and happiness. That's not Las Vegas or LA for me right now.

It doesn't require it.

So in other words, I should give up $XXX/hr to move all the way across the country and lose $XX/hr? Lol...

Has it occurred to you that maybe, just maybe, these "seemingly smart" people are making more money than you realize and are seeing possibilities in how things may shake out that are different than you've even considered?

Re-read my old posts. I told you how I see it going. If you're a pro at the top of the food chain, you'll do okay even if there is contraction, because the middle of the food chain pros will get squeezed out of the game. Also if you get it with regard to game selection, table image, creating a social atmosphere, getting people to gamble, getting recs to want to play with you, etc, you can create a lot of good situations for yourself.

Besides, it's mind boggling to you that anyone could make more than 8bb/hr, and yet I know several people doing it in like four or five different poker markets. East Coast, West Coast, South, and I'm sure there are tons I don't know about - perhaps in markets I don't know about. But that's mind boggling to you. And no, I'm not going to name players or casinos/cities/specific markets. Blowing up people's spot is not cool.

"Just ****ing Butchered One."

I'm still kicking myself for this hand early on in the Monster Stack that, in my own words to friends in a group chat right after it happened, I "****ing butchered." I think it's interesting for this thread because it shows a huge difference in where I'm at now versus back in the day.



25/50 level... I've already chipped up a bit. The LJ, who I read as a nervous/scared TAG so far, makes it 150. I'm on the button with KT and elect to call. It's worth noting this is a fold by most default ranges, and I know most who do play it would prefer a 3bet to a call. (I think fold > 3bet > call the vast majority of the time, but I think this one was an exception - of course if I do stupid **** like what's going to happen below, that can turn a very marginal spot very negative.) Anyway, given the reads that I have on the opener's style of play so far, I think I'm a lot better off playing a smaller pot in position rather than further narrowing (aka strengthening) his range. I also don't want to give him a chance to 4bet me and eliminate my ability to play the hand.

The small blind comes along.

Flop (500) KT5

Check, check, I bet 300. The small blind calls and the opener folds. The SB is a German playing quite solid.

Turn (1100): 7

He checks, I bet 700 and he makes it 2100 and I pick up a strength tell. I tank call, deciding in-hand that my hand is too strong to fold and that I could be up against K5s, K7s, or a big draw like QJ or 98 or 98... Or even the same hand. KK is impossible, TT is very unlikely due to the action and the blocker effects, and that just leaves 55.

River (5300) 7x

He checks and I tank, debating between going for what is pretty thin value or not. I decide he's more likely to have his one combo of K5s than to check a boat on the river (even though he has several combos of full houses) and bet 2700, and that since all the draws missed I can get heroed. He thinks a bit and calls with 55. This was just stupidity - in-game it felt weak as hell to check back when he checked, but that was the correct play. I wanted that super thin value ownage, but I self-owned.

The problem with the turn and river is that this dude has seemed solid, TAG and competent and should never ever ever ever ever ever ever have K5s or K7s in this situation preflop. KT is possible, but so are TT and 55. He's more likely to float the flop with 77 and spike his set than to have K5s or K7s. Lots of tourney players have all those suited Kx hands in there in this spot, but he wasn't one of them.

Normally, without a tell, he can also have a bunch of draws here and I shouldn't fold, but with the tell (one of my most reliable) it's really hard for him to have a draw. I guess mayyybe QJ, QJ, 98 and 98, but even then some combos are more likely to raise the flop and the 98 may just fold the flop.

Now, to be clear, I'm not advocating for folding KT on the turn there without a read... Because he could have a lot of draws there with no reads... But with a read, it just changes the spot and those are the types of situations in which I can save chips that most players can't save.

Tilting Into Dinner Break

This hand was the first one that's really tilted me in a long, long time. Perhaps that's just because it was the last hand before dinner break and I mentally turned off my tilt control since I had 75 minutes to steam about it without it affecting my play.

150/300 (25)

We're about 30K effective. UTG+2 is spewy, over aggro, opening too wide, c-betting too wide, barreling too wide, you get the idea... Like I'm not saying he's awful, because he's putting at least *some* thought in, but he's not just splashing, he's doing cannon balls.

He opens to 700. I'm in the LJ and have 22 and call. The button calls as well.

Flop (3000): Q62

A set on a dry board against a spewer, life is good. He bets 1400, I call, the button folds. As much as I'd love to raise and build a pot, it's only going to let his bluffs off cheap and let him off the hook with like KQ+ that he's going to bet, bet, bet (and probably call a raise) with.

Turn (5800): 3

He bets 2,400. I call. The same reasons pretty much apply. It looks like 54 if I raise here, it lets him off the hook with his entire range and I can just field bluffs on the river and still get a value raise in as long as the river isn't exactly a 4 or 5.

River (10,600): 5

He bets 6400. He does have a bunch of 4x here given his wide ranges, but he also is likely to use like 5x to bluff... and he can value bet a bunch of suited 2p hands that he has like Q6s, Q5s, Q3s, 65s, 53s, etc...

So I call, and he has K4, and I'm muttering to myself all the way from the convention center to the Diamond Lounge for dinner break. I'd be less annoyed if he at least flopped a backdoor flush draw, but nope, it was just the runner runner gutterball to bail him out.

I ended up bagging like 38.8K to return to 500/1K (100) despite the mistake, the backdoor straight, and another 2-outer on the river later in the day... and I spun it up today to 50bb+ a couple times, but unfortunately I had a couple mini coolers (small overpair versus big overpair, lost about 10bb) and then ran 99 into KK when I reshoved 22bb over a 4.4bb shove, and the villain had me covered by like 2-3bb.

Just missed the cash by like ~150-180 spots, which is unfortunate since I felt like my momentum was building after back to back WSOP cashes including the close call for the final table in the $1500 Shootout.

Oh well, a few more tourneys left to fire before the summer ends and if I keep my level of play where it's been for most of the summer (but especially the last 10-12 days), I like my chances to get a deep run in something. After all, I got my bad mistake out of the way for the next couple of months .

Hand 1 is more like a cooler really then some awful play. River bet I guess is close to a check. I'm not sure this qualifies as some awful play really other than perhaps 1 street


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Reads though.

Sort of, but with the level I had been playing at and with my reads I need to make the fold. Some tells are so reliable that I should trust them without any confirmation via tabled hands by that player, and this is one of them. It's probably been like 90-95% accurate for me.

There's a First Time for Everything

... or so they say.

After the brick in the Monster Stack, I decided to fire the Planet Hollywood $600 Ultimate Goliath Something Or Other Super Duper We Give You a Lot of Chips But Really It's The Same As Everyone Else's Deep Stacked Fast Structure Huge Guarantee Donkament Phamous Stack on Tuesday. I don't remember many hands - I went 0 for 3 on flips, and that was about that.

There wasn't much on the schedule for Wednesday, and I tend to try to avoid mid-week cash games during the WSOP, so I decided to fire the $400 Goliath Stack 6-Max 100K GTD at Planet Hollywood.

I lost some chips early, then a key hand came up...

Hand No. 1

At 75/150 the LJ makes it 400, and I read her as strong. I'm on the button with KK and make it 1200. It folds to her and she thinks for a few seconds and moves all-in, covering my ~14K (you start with 20K). My immediate instinct is to fold, but I go into the tank... and it's an odd tank. There's no adding up combos, no range analysis. It's like 45 seconds of, "Does she ALWAYS just have AA here? Yeah, I think so... But can I really fold KK? It would be pretty disgusting to be wrong. But yeah, I think this is the time to do it."

She's been pretty solid, but there are certainly players who appear solid for a couple hours, then do stupid stuff like this with JJ or AK because they "don't know how to play it," on bad flops. I decide to try to get some more information...

"Wow. Really? I've never folded this hand before preflop... I guess there's a first time for everything."

I waited a bit... "Will you show me if I fold?"

She said yes, and I got a live read of strength and excitement, so I laid them down and she flipped over AA.

Phew... I would have been sick if it was something like AK or JJ.

I'd like to say that I built up my stack and went on to win the tournament after making such a great read, but that's not quite how it went. I felt sharp and was playing well, but I made a few second best hands and dwindled and busted a few hours in... I debated late regging, but I'd only have 40bb. I usually don't like to late reg at all and I don't think I've ever done it if I'd have fewer than 70bb, because I think I gain a lot of extra EV from playing deep stacked early on that boosts my tournament EV.

But, hey, there's a first time for everything... I was so sharp and it was early in the day with nothing else going on, so I decided to fire a second bullet. If I'm folding KK correctly, my reads are pretty sharp, right?

Hand No. 2

Blinds: 600/1200 (200)

I'm in the LJ with AK and make it 2400. The BB, an online player from Germany, calls - and I pick up a strength tell. That narrows his range down for me a ton given that he's strong but also flatted pre and would virtually never do that with QQ+/AK.

Flop (6600): J53

He checks, I bet 1800, he snap calls.

Turn (10,200): 4

He checks, I bet 4500, he calls. At this point, based on the combination of tells, his range is most likely something like 66-TT, AJ, KJ, although I think he might at least consider a check-raise with AJ on the flop and may not consider AJ/KJ strong preflop. I think more than anything he's weighted strongly to 88-TT.

River (19,200): J

He checks, and I decide we should go for it here given a combination of factors, but predominately based on the live reads and blocking AJ/KJ. Absent the reads, I think he's only calling down with a J or better here - he knows that I know he has a lot more Jx than I do, so when I fire I'm basically announcing that I have like JT+... And normally I wouldn't get to bluff that much in this situation... But, knowing that I can safely eliminate all of his weaker Jx, and weight him heavily toward 88-TT, everything changes.

I bet 16K, and he tanks for a while and folds.

Later on, with antes in play, he'd jam 16bb in the SB... I had KTo in the BB, and snap called. He stood up from the table, pointed at my hand and said, "You play that s***???" after tabling his K8.

I laughed, assuming he was joking, becuase it's like a super easy call in that spot. He wasn't. "No, man, that's a horrendous call for 20bb. Just awful."

"Yeah? Well how about for 16 bigs?"

He just shook his head and walked away, as the board did not bail him out. For whatever it's worth, it's a call for 20 bigs too...

I got one huge bluff through en route to the late stages of the tournament, which really turned the corner for me to put me in a very strong position heading toward the final several tables.

The Bubble

As we neared the bubble, I began to take control - but in the opposite way that you'd expect. At a new table, the LJ opened to 12K at 2.5K/5K (500) and I made it 36K on the button with AK. He called. Without about 82K in the pot, he open jammed a rainbow K9X flop for about 115K. I snapped, and held versus KTo and he busted in 38th with 36 spots paying.

I told my friends he's probably going to get a look in training camp from the Vegas Raiders if they need a punter, because the hang time and distance on that one were spectacular.

That put us on the stone bubble, and while I didn't totally ransack it, I was certainly opening a little wider than usual given my stack size. It folded around to the SB who had around 15bb and he opened to 3x. I had 22 and jammed and he agonizingly tank folded. He asked if I had a pair, and I laughed a bit and said, "Actually, I did, believe it or not!"

The very next hand, the CO opened to 3x on a roughly 22bb stack. It folded to me in the SB with AJ and the BB had less than 10 bigs. I ripped it in, of course, and the CO groaned and called off with QQ.

Window: A

Well, I know what the opposite side of that feels like... but it's never easy.

Flop: AT4

I glance over, and he does have the Q

Turn: 8

He's standing up, yelling, "Come on, dealer, spade ONE TIME!!!"

Honestly, I almost caught myself rooting for him a tiny bit on the inside because I felt so bad that he was going to not only bust on the bubble, but be tortured by the extra hope of the backdoor flush draw. I wanted the pot, of course, but I wouldn't have cared much if it ran off a flush for him - he deserved it.

River: Brick.

That said, he played the hand poorly IMO from an ICM perspective and should have never gotten himself into that spot.

Post-Bubble

I let off the gas for a while, expecting everyone to start playing back at me but I picked up some hands and ran up a pretty big chip lead. Three times I called toward the bottom of my calling range versus a short stack's shove, with a weak wheel ace versus a player type who normally shoves too tight - but each time I had a weakness tell. Each time they had Kx. Each time, I held. (That's some pretty serious rungood to hold them all.)

We got down to the final 3 tables, and with the average stack around 350K, I was flirting with a cool million, although I never quite hit seven digit territory - though not for lack of trying.

In the last level, I ran a massive, MASSSIVE bluff in the BB vs the SB. We were both deep - he had about 350K to start the hand and I had about 976K, I had a preflop live read that narrowed his range down, and that made it a very very close spot as to whether or not I should go for it. I floated the flop and blasted the turn and river and he snapped me off with one of the combos I knew he could have and was hoping to avoid. Oops.

I've discussed the hand with a few friends who I think are beasts, and we have one who hates it, one who dislikes it but can kind of see the merit of it, and one who likes it. I keep going back and forth between hating it and loving it, so who knows? I probably should have avoided it, but I still had almost twice the average stack after it failed and position on all those chips... in fact, by the end of the day I had chipped back up to retake the chip lead with 792K to return to 7K/14K (2K) blinds with 15 left, and about $26,800 up top.


Day 2

I was fired up and ready to go for the restart, and very confident in my ability to close it out. Absent a cooler or a horrendous beat, I felt like I was absolutely going to make the final table... My mindset was to be aggressive and assertive, but avoid mistakes. People can make some huge mistakes deep in MTTs, and you don't want to be that guy... But you don't want to be the guy who gets too nervous and folds away his shot to win to lock up 10th place money, either.

I headed over with one of my buddies from the house out here, and he decided to hang out and watch the first level before taking off to grind elsewhere and (hopefully) return for the final table. Things started moving quickly, though, and before you knew it we were down to two tables in under 45 minutes. I was up to ~900K with the average around 520K.

I started applying increasing amounts of pressure, and continually chipping up without much confrontation. Soon we were down to 9 and I had 1.2M with the average at about 690K. I was up to 1.25M with the blinds at 12K/24K (4K). I'm pretty sure I was second at that point, but I was the chip leader at my table, and just totally dialed in on the task at hand and ignoring the other table or the stacks over there.

I wish I had notes on some of those hands getting from 15 down to 9, but I was just too dialed in - and in between hands would occasionally go talk to my buddy on the rail who was still hanging out.

By the time we had eight left, I was back into the chip lead with about 1.7M and the average at 777K.

Final Table Bubble

When we rebalanced the tables with eight left (remember, this is a 6-max), the second biggest stack got moved to my direct right... and I had played with him on Day 1. He had made some peculiar plays, specifically betting for information in certain spots with weird lines and then folding to aggression. We would soon get tangled up in a pot.

I'm doing this hand from memory, so it may be slightly off on the sizings or the irrelevant board cards.

With the blinds at 15K/30K (5K) I made it 60K from the CO with 98 and he defended his BB.

Flop (155K): K52

He leads for 60K and I call. My thoughts in this spot were focused on three factors. I'll stick to two of them here: this could very well fall into his pattern of taking weird lines and making weird bets/raises to see where he's at, so I can try to take this away later... and he's been talking about the final table bubble, so that dynamic is important as well.

Turn (275K): 6

He bets 100K, and I raise to 325K. He calls.

River (925K): J

He checks, I bet 380K, and he calls pretty quickly. My hand is good, to his great disgust, and I'm up to 2.5M... A little later, we go to the unofficial final table with the average stack at 888K. I had a commanding lead, a couple of short stacks and bunch of middle sized stacks.

I walked over to my buddy and quietly told him what a sweet spot it was for me with the ICM implications for the middle stacks. I was prepared to run the table over while they tried to ladder up. Unfortunately, that doesn't work so well when nobody seems to care that much about the pay jumps.

I was quickly back down under 2M and had to slam the brakes on and change my strategy. Coming in with all of those chips and not making the top three would be a total disaster. I was still playing to win, but it wasn't going to be by forcing these guys into ICM folds with 7 players left. Meanwhile, my other housemate had arrived - he busted a tourney at Aria and came over to watch the final table. I was sorry to see him, but happy to see him, if you know what I mean.

The Final Table

Pretty soon we had a bustout, and the official final table was under way. Unfortunately, the new game plan was not met with a lot of good hands/flops, and I was watching the others trade chips back and forth while I dwindled. I did try to make one more ICM play against a mid-stack who I knew understood ICM, but unfortunately he had AQ on an ace high board and called two barrels, at which point I knew he had a big hand and shut down.

He had the chip lead, and I was suddenly the one in ICM jail. When we got down to 4 players, I had fallen to third place, but the stacks were roughly even. The player to my left had slighty less than me, the player to his left had chipped up a ton from the shortest stack and had just doubled twice, and the player to my right had me covered by a bit.

The CO minraised, I folded the button, the small blind called and the big blind ripped it in for a massive amount. The CO called, the SB folded, and the BB had AQ and was in bad shape against KK. We didn't know yet exactly how much he had jammed, because he hadn't even begun stacking his chips from the previous hand... but it would be about 40bb. Just a massive, massive blunder... and not so great for me, either. The payouts were roughly 27K, 16K, 11.5K, 8K... and now the guy on my right had heaps and knew about ICM and probably knew that I know about ICM. The dude who ripped AQ was back to scraps, and the guy on my left had me slightly covered. I was in third and in ICM jail.

Facing ICM Pressure

In one of the first hands coming off of a break, with the blinds at 25K/50K (5K) and sitting in third place, I was in a pivotal pot. The short stack had around 6bb, and folded his button. The big stack in the SB opened to 175K, and I was in the BB with 55 and 1.75M.

I called, basically planning to mostly play for set value given the ICM situation.

Flop (370K): 862

He bet 200K. Well, alrighty then. I'm way ahead of his range in this spot, and this is a board I shouldn't play just for set value, but it's going to be impossible to call down multiple streets with just 55. It's going to be pretty gross if a 4 rolls off and I face a big bet, let alone a 7. However, there's a chance he'll shut down, so I think I need to see a turn card in this spot. Plus, I can always hit a set. I call.

Turn (770K): 5

He bets 500K. I think for a while here, but there's really only one play.. If he has 97, 74, 43, 88 or 66, so be it... I'm destroying his range, and I can't see another card come off here with all the draws out there in this ICM situation... Without the ICM, I'd like a call here to just snap him off on the river - and if he hits a straight, so be it. But with the ICM, and since I can still deny him the right price to draw, I have no choice. I rip it in, and he folds pretty quickly.

Suddenly, the ICM situation is changing again... Now I'm up to around 2.65M. The player on my left has about 700K, the shortest stack has about 250K, and the player on my right has about 2.6M. I could be slightly off and I'm not sure who covered who between me and the guy on my right because we didn't play another hand together before the stacks changed drastically again. Another big ICM spot came up...

It folded to me in the SB, and I looked down at the powerful J4. The BB had about 700K and the CO (who had folded) had like 250K, or 5bb. It's such a disaster for the BB to go broke in this spot that I just have to move in super wide. I jam, and he thinks for about 10 seconds and calls with 88.

In-game I thought his call was awful given the ICM, but now I think it's actually really close. I think TT+ is probably a slam dunk call, 99 is probably slightly profitable, 88 is marginal either way, and 77 is a fold.

I knew he didn't totally get ICM, but I also knew that he knew to play tight on pay jumps. Never the less, he held, and I was right back in ICM jail myself. Oh, the swings of tournament poker.

Soon, we'd have another hand with huge ICM implications.

We're still at 25K/50K (5K) and I'm in the CO with 1.7M, the button has 1.5M, the SB is still hovering around 250K, and the BB has 2.8M. I have 55 and ponder my options.

I don't like raising, because I can't call a 3bet and the BB knows I am in ICM jail and has shown a willingness to take advantage. I don't like a fold, because I have a pair, the button isn't going to isolate me too crazy, I can call a jam from the SB, and I can call a raise in position against the BB.

I limp, the button limps, the SB folds and seems to enjoy the fact that we're all about to play a multi-way pot while he hopes to ladder up, and the BB checks. My main game plan here is, "Don't go broke."

Flop (195K): KJ5

The BB checks, and I assess the situation. I have the nuts. I mean, not technically, but neither villain ever, ever, ever, ever, ever has JJ or KK. Given the ICM, there's no way I'm going to downbet or check, so I bet 120K.

The button begins thinking, and I get strength tells. Whoa boy, here we go. He makes it 300K and it folds to me. I go through the situation again. He just can't ever have KK or JJ. He almost always has to have exactly KJ. I suppose K5 is possible, but I doubt he'd play that preflop. I suppose a monster draw is also a possibility, but raising it would be so bad in this situation.

I have to raise, because I don't want a scare card to kill my action or to let him draw for free. However, the sizes are weird. If I move in, I'm actually making a big overbet - it would be around 1.15M more, with about 795K in the pot. Could he fold KJ there? Should he? Possibly... I mean, if he thinks it through, I'm limited to KJ and 55 and probably have 100% of my 55 and not 100% of my KJ preflop. But if I just make a small raise, it puts him in just a gross spot. He can't fold to such a small raise, and calling leaves him fearing any A, Q, T, 9 or diamond.

I make it 750K. He thinks for a bit and stuffs it, I snap call and he groans, as I table the set. We're up against KJ and need to fade a K or J. I don't remember the turn or river, which tells you all you really need to know - neither was a King or Jack, and I was suddenly the chip leader again with 3.2M and three players left...

The short stack managed to double through the third player a couple times, but eventually he busted out to him and we were heads up... I held a roughly 3.8M to 2.4M chip lead with the blinds still at 25K/50K (5K). My opponent briefly mentioned the idea of a break, I assume to discuss business, but they told him there was no break and said we could talk at the table if we wanted to - but I expressed no interest in a chop and he dropped it without directly asking. I wanted to feel out his heads up game before even considering it, and to be honest I just wanted to play it out. It wasn't the kind of life changing money that I just couldn't bear to miss out on, and with all due respect to my opponents, I had felt throughout the final 15 that I was the best player in the field, on my A game, and ready to take it down...

Heads Up Battle

The first hand of heads up was a wild one.

He had the button and made it 100K, and I called with 98.

Flop (210K): 755

I checked, he bet 50K, and I called.

Turn (310K): T

Well, that's a fun card. I checked, he bet 300K ???? and I went into the tank. It's such an odd sizing. It could be a monster looking to build a huge pot, or it could be a bluff looking to apply maximum pressure. Is he on a level to be using that sizing with all hands to pressure my range on this board, which hates that sizing? It's possible.

Ultimately, regardless of the reason for his bet, and it's impossible to know for sure, the play seems clear to me. It's a check-raise, and I need to barrel off on a lot of rivers. I decide to use a small, valuey sizing and fire the river, so I make it 775K, and he calls. That leaves him with 1.4-1.5M. It's worth noting that so far he has not given off a specific strength tell that I had picked up on him a few times earlier.

River (1.86M) 7

Now, that's a hell of a card. The kind that should maybe make me reconsider my plan. He could have a lot of 7x in his range. But, I think he might have folded some of that on the turn. He should also have some busted draws, as well as some overcards that felt inclined to float getting 3 to 1. If he was using a large turn sizing to pressure my entire range, one of the problems he then faces is that when I make a small check-rasie, he has to defend a lot of hands that would prefer to fold but still have some equity versus my range and are getting a great price. Now I get to return the favor to him on the next street where it'll be hard for him to defend, regardless of my sizing. It's also a really tough spot for a T or an overpair to feel good - no matter how high up they are in his range, and he has a lot more Tx and overpairs than 7x and 5x at this point I think.

So I bet 1.05M, and he goes into the tank. He counts out a call, sets it aside, and counts his remaining stack. So at this point he obviously has a pretty good hand that he's seriously considering calling with.

He rechecks his hole cards, and it's the moment of truth. He flicks them toward the muck, and we've got a massive chip lead. It's now about 4.7M to 1.5M.

A 10K+ Flip

The blinds go up to 30K/60K (10K) and I grind him down a bit, and he switches to a button limping strategy. He limps the button with like 1.3M, and I look down at 33. I rip it in, and he snaps with AK.

We're off to the races... Both of our rails come over toward the table, and I stay in my seat shuffling chips trying to just focus on the next hand if he doubles up. I don't know if it makes me smart, or just a huge poker nerd that I'd thought about this situation before. Not just the night before, like years ago... That if I was ever heads up in a tournament facing a big all-in pot, I wouldn't stand up from the table, I wouldn't be yelling for cards, and I wouldn't be over with my rail. I'd be sitting in my seat, as calmly as possible, preparing for the outcome in which we continue playing - because if that's the one we have, I want my opponent to see that I'm totally ready to keep playing, that I could care less that I just won or lost a bunch of chips, and that I'm still fully dedicated to the task at hand... and internally I want to be just as sharp, just as calm and just as focused.

Anyway, about that flip...

Flop: A79

I hear my buddy groan, while my opponents buddy says, "Yes! Hold!"

I glance over to see if I have the flush draw - I do. My buddy says, "Heart! Heart!" His buddy says, "No heart!"

Turn: 9

My buddy calls for a heart again...

River: 6

My friend sounds like someone punched him in the gut. I know this because my other friend was taking video and right now I'm sitting here kind of laughing at the sound. It's pretty awesome that he was rooting that much, and I appreciated it then and I do now, but in the moment I was just dialed in and wasn't going to give any reaction until it was over. Okay, he held, cool, next hand, I've got 3.6M and he's got 2.6M, I'm still in the driver's seat. I'm still going to grind him back down. I'm still going to close this out.

I was just firing away, firing away... Playing my range preflop, jabbing away postflop, defending my ranges out of position and attacking in position. I felt like I had more heads up experience that he did, though I don't know for sure. I also know that he's an online MTT pro, so I was trying to do small things to make live poker harder for him. For example, he seemed to be having a little bit of trouble figuring out the denominations for my button raises. I had started at 120K, then moved to 125K, then moved to 140K. Why? Well, playing bigger pots in position is always nice, but there was a second reason - online you can just see how much is in the pot. Live you've gotta count it. I didn't want the preflop pot or the chips he had to use to call to be the same every hand throughout the level. I wanted to keep changing it, so that the bet sizes would all change a little as well.

I think it was working a little, because soon he started just using 150K to call and get change back instead of trying to put in the exact amount.

I grinded him back down a bit again, and was pretty happy with my chances to win. I knew I was playing well, I felt like I had the edge heads up, and I had been running hot for the most part - despite losing the flip. I was pretty happy to grind him down playing small pots until I had him down to 20bb or less again, unless a monster confrontation developed. I got him down to about 1.5M (25bb) and a huge pot developed.

This Could Be It...

I made it 140K on the button with 87 and he called.

Flop (300K): 569

As that board rolled off, I was thinking that this could be it... But then again, he has to have something himself... Either way, my action was pretty clear. Use the normal amount of time I'd been thinking to think about who has a range advantage, etc, then bet the normal amount. I bet 120K, and he thought a bit and called. Alright, let's ****ing go. No 7, no 8, and preferably no board pair.

Turn (540k): 5

He checked, I thought for a bit. It's not my favorite card, but it's not the worst either - still way better than a 7 or 8. And it really doesn't change anything. Yeah, sure I lose to some hands now, but we were always going to get it in against them, and whatever was going to happen was going to happen. I sort of wanted to size down here from a theoretical standpoint, but I believe he is going to have to stack off at this stack depth with most of his 9x or better, so let's not let him off the hook by going too small on the turn and then having a huge river bet behind. He has about 1.2M, so I bet 320K.

He went into the tank, then I heard those glorious words. "All in."

I snap called and fast rolled, and he tabled Q5. We need no 5, 6, 9 or Q. My friend comes over and is sort of shaking my shoulder, "LET'S GO RYAN!!" I wave him off for a second, "Not yet, not yet. One more card."

Same game plan. I'm staying seated, I'm not reacting until this tournament is over.

River: F**k.

As it's coming toward the felt I can see that it's a red middle card, and I know that's not good although I don't quite know just how bad that is. I now know that the 5, 6, 6, 9 and 9 all do us in, and I'm holding the 8. This needs to be either a red 7 or an 8. We're more likely to be back to battle than we are to be winning. But that's okay, I'll still have a very slight chip lead.

It hits the felt. I'm in the 9 seat. The dealer's hand is blocking it. Nobody instantly reacts on either rail, or if they do I am just too focused on what that card is to realize it. The dealer's hand pulls back, and I lean forward.

Congratulations! And thanks for sharing. Fun read.

Congrats on the win but holy sh*t that elbow is so sharp it could kill a man

Seriously cool read though. You have a way with describing action that keeps one entralled.

ossum victory and great write up...well done sir!!

Congratulations - I’m happy for your success. Good luck in the rest of the series

Congrats!! Epic write up I loved reading that. GL rest of Vegas trip.

Your write up is even more of an accomplishment than the tourney win!

Way to go Cuse!

Cuse has the talent to be remembered as his generation's 'Doyle', imo.

+1

I wouldn't be surprised if he binked the main.

Success and Good Luck usually come in bunches!

#TeamCuse

WP, congrats!

Very entertaining write up. Congrats on the score

It was so entertaining you should look to submit it to pokernews or something similar!

Nice job bro. I just have one question for you....

What was the ICM mistake made by the guy holding Queens when you had AJhh? You think he should just rip it in pre?

yes