If you're not an MTTer how do you feel so confident to gauge someones proper mark up and expected hourly in a MTT?

Maybe cross book wasn't the best word. I didn't mean you'd play it, I meant you'd bet against me. Pockettwoz sends you $100 if I bust short of the money, you send him 1% of what I cash if I cash. Should be a great bet for you, since you think my Main Event hourly is -$500.

What is your main event hourly btw?

I gave you some heat because you are a good player who was misrepresenting yourself because of laziness. You don't have much left to prove to anyone, btw.

Nice run in the Main.

-$384.62 with a sample size of one. I'd be glad to book a prop bet on what my WSOP Main Event hourly is after I've played it 10 times... You're on record thinking it's -$500, and also thinking there's no way it's higher than my WSOP $5/T hourly, which I think is over $100 an hour in the long run.

So I'll take my WSOP Main Event hourly being over $100 an hour after I've played it 10 times for $1,000 that goes into escrow right now. I'll get 11 years to play it 9 more times, because I shouldn't lose on the off-chance I miss a year or two for health, family reasons, etc.

Obviously, you should snap call since my Main Event hourly is -$500 in your opinion, and I'm already in the hole at 0/1. Alternatively, I'll take my ROI after 10 times being over 40% for $1K. Either one is fine by me.

Oh, by the way, if you don't take one of those bets, I'm going to completely ignore you and I'll never respond to another post you make.

So it's win-win for me. Either I get your money, or I never pay attention to a single nonsensical thing you post again.

There is no way I would ever do a side bet with you given youre behavoir once you saw you were beaten in a bet. If you'd like to play some HU lets fire up some tables on bovada.

Fwiw I don't care to bet about future cuse. I was betting on your current value. In fact I placed a bet by not buying your action, my reasoning being it was overpriced and and you were going to be competing against world class players much to your detriment

Protip

You're right, I didn't cash, and that's all there is to it this year. But, you're unwilling to put your money where your mouth is, and thus, this is the last response you'll get out of me. If you're going to yap as much as you do, you better back that up.

Duke and I are cool. The issue in the prop bet is old history and doesn't need to be dug up. I was far from beaten, but if it played out I probably would have lost since I did downswing right after. Again, the conflict is old history. We hung out in Vegas and we're friends.

Anytime you want to escrow that 1K, let me know. Your whole not trusting me thing is kind of taken care of by the escrow.

Good luck in your future endeavors.

This would be interesting.

Where's the button I hit to get to that confirmation button?

I'm unable to play on Bovada for the foreseeable future. I live in Delaware, and often spend time in New Jersey playing in AC... Both are blocked states for Bovada. Sometimes I'm in Nevada, also a blocked state as far as I know, and I can't establish residency here with as little as I'll be here. I may move to Maryland, which is also a blocked state.

I'd have to move to PA, which is a slight possibility, and I'll get on there if I do, but obviously I'm not deciding where to live just so I can play this clown heads up.

Just vpn and you'll be fine. You wont have to worry about cashing out

I would take that bet but that would mean it would be drawn out over 10 years.

Nice run in the main btw.

Uh oh, cuserounder learned how to use the ignore feature.

Thanks for the kind words Bob!

Thanks for chiming in on that, appreciate it.

Great post! Anyone who plays cash professionally and puts in hours should be pretty decent at estimating their hourly in games. Obviously it's never going to be perfect, but that's part of the skill set - knowing which game to be in, etc. That's why some days I played 2/5 over 5/T at the WSOP, and vice versa. I aimed for the highest hourly, and sometimes the 2/5 game was likely to be well over $100 for me with a certain lineups while the 5/T might have been under $100 by a wide margin.

I did at the time have experience as an independent contractor in several web/communications roles, and an understanding of the Healthcare bill and how that changes things. I guess it depends on how you define "good" benefits, but nowadays anything beyond Healthcare and maybe a few grand matched into a 401K is hard to find... at least in jobs that are realistically achievable for most.

That primarily leaves the extra taxes and vacation. A cash game pro making $100K in 2/5 and 5/T is certainly doing better than an average person making $50K in a job... It's not a 50K gap, but it's a gap. Ballpark, the $50K guy might get ~$12K in benefits and clear $35K post-tax. The $100K profit poker player probably clears $70K (lots of write offs, keep in mind), pays $4K for health insurance and loses ~$5K (max) of employer matching on retirement savings. That leaves you $61K for the poker player vs. $47K for the average employed guy. Also, the healthcare the employee has is "worth" about $6-8K probably, but the poker player is getting it cheaper - so that's additional salary gap, unless the poker player significantly values the (potentially) better quality of insurance.

I don't really want to argue about it, but I want to make it obvious that I don't have my head up my ass and I'm not making stuff up, and I wasn't back then even if I didn't lay all of that out.

Of course, 9 out of 10 people would probably have more happiness in the regular job, even though they wouldn't realize it until they experienced both... But if you can handle the stress, the freedom of poker is awesome.

I don't have little to no experience in them, but it's whatever, it's an old/non-issue.

Funny how that works, right?

Curious what you mean by this? I'd think there would be more advantages for the HSNL players in terms of earning potential... Although they are also likely to be older and perhaps better able to get high quality jobs with better compensation packages, or they're already employed in that type of job and play recreationally.

To me the whole argument is moot because the career field I was pursuing has terrible compensation/benefits for all of the jobs below the top few percent...

I mean, like I said, I have experience in some of that stuff with independent contracting and going through a lot of issues getting/keeping health insurance.

Thanks Tuma. I appreciate it, and I agree. I don't think I was misrepresenting myself, though, nor would I ever intentionally do that.

Thanks... I'd honestly be shocked if my ROI in that event isn't over 40%. I'd figure an average 10 year span would have 3-4 cashes and at least one top-100 run, which should net ~$140K combined. Obviously even 10 is a small sample size, and a lot of the return comes on the really deep run into the final 2-3 tables.

I think the cash rate for a high level player is way higher in the Main Event than people realize, though, due to the structure. I mean, they hit the money in the 1500/3000 level about 7.5 hours of play into day three... So if you still have a starting stack of 30K, you can work a 10bb stack into the money.

Obviously playing a cash-first strategy is far from optimal, but having played the structure, count me in on the side of people who believe you should pass up slight edge for your whole stack early in the tournament because your future edge is so high.

If someone open shoved on the first hand and showed me AK and I had QQ, I'd fold it, and not because it was a lot of money or anything... I think my EV of having a 30K stack 100% of the time is higher than having 60K 57% of the time, because you can chip up much less risk.

On the flip side, taking on some variance before the bubble to be in a position to abuse it and gain a ton of chips offers a ton of upside IMO, as long as you aren't obliterating your ICM.

sorry fer the bust quez.

better luck next year!

It's not that you had your head up your ass; it's simply that you are a little too confident about something that you don't have enough experience in. Like many things in life, as you gain experience, you'll have a better assessment of the big picture.

Here's a few things you are missing in making the comparison:

1. Self-Employment Tax: [Take an extra 15% off your poker earnings]

2. Non-paid travel expenses for work-related activities. [I believe you might have been including this in your write-offs? ..so let's not take a percentage here]

3. No PTO days (paid time off): In a 'normal' job, you will start with 10 business days of sick leave per year, and another 10 business days for vacation. That's essentially a month of free pay, and it increases with time. [so that starts as an 8% bonus, and then goes up].

4. Little to no ability to leverage your earnings: In a normal job, you can get a loan for a mortgage, or to invest in a business, etc. Try going to a bank and telling them you make X amount of dollars playing poker and see what happens. [what is this worth: 5-10% at least]

5. CE considerations: Certainty Equivalent. There is a discount that needs to be applied to a volatile income stream vs. a steady and guaranteed one. There are several reasons for this, including the ability to allocate future earnings (to whatever), peace of mind, etc. [discounting the volatile stream by 10% would be more than fair...wouldn't you prefer 90K absolutely guaranteed with a steady 8.3K per month you can count on rather than a wild income stream where you never know how much you'll make next month...but hopefully you'll be at 100K at the end of year?]

6. Other perks: Some employers will help you pay off student-loans, pay for continued education or at least additional training, etc. [minor benefit: let's say this is worth 2%]

7. Defined Career Path: With a regular job, you can have reasonable confidence that you'll be earning more year after year (barring a huge recession or being employed in a ****ty industry). Poker is less certain, the game is continually changing and the advantage of profitable players is narrowing over time. [worth about 5%?]

8. The ability to work your way into a "cushy" job: Over time, you will likely find a job/boss that will allow you to make a living while only having to work a percentage of what you're technically supposed to (obv we would never take advantage of that being the upstanding citizens we are ). For example, one person I know works from home and only puts in half the time they are paid for. One of the last jobs I worked, I had literally nothing to do for 75% of the day and was surfing the Internet for the most part (with my boss's knowledge). I could have been doing other gainful things (working on a website, studying, etc.) if I was so inclined. Difficult to do that while grinding on a table (if you're focused the way you should be to). [hard to put a percentage on this since it's uncertain and doesn't happen all the time, but it could be worth a lot]

9. Unemployment Insurance + Disability Insurance if you lose your job or are injured. I suppose poker players could still get Federal benefits for disability, which is peanuts. Short and Long-Term disability will pay you something like 70% of your original income. [another small benefit since it's unlikely, worth maybe 2%?]

10. Family Benefits: Most jobs have benefits that extend to family members (medical for your spouse, children, dental, etc.) [worth maybe 5%]

I'm probably missing stuff here, but you get the idea. It's not that you have your head up your ass; but more that you are lacking some parts of the picture. Nothing to blame as it's difficult to see these things without adequate experience, but a little humility goes a long way.

As for these jobs being hard to come by, you'd be surprised. These are the regular jobs if you're working in a half-decent industry. The hard-to-come-by jobs are the ones with six-figure bonuses at the end of the year.

Yup, the freedom is perhaps the one thing which makes it all worthwhile!

Something big I feel like you are missing Push.

What if you never completed any school past High School, don't have any degrees from a college or university?

How many well paid jobs with good benefits are available to you?

There are other obvious factors as well. Ability to socialize and network with those in and around your industry. In poker it's going to be easier for you if you talk it up with the fish, but it isn't an absolute requirement, how far will you ever get in most jobs if you aren't very good at this skill.

Also the freedom aspect is huge and shouldn't be understated.


What I am trying to get at is it's not just enough to compare salaries between the two you also need to consider what kind of person someone is, and what there background is.

I'm sure there are a number of successful poker players that are making more in poker than they would in anything else based on such factors.

omg he challenged someone heads up on bovada quick everyone flame the **** out of him because its sooooo wrong to tell someone hey man youre good but i think im better and i wanna prove it

Valid points, but like many things, it can be argued both ways:

Yes, you need to jump through the hoops and complete your schooling, prove yourself in the workforce, etc., but everything takes work. Again, the general consensus is that you'll have to put more work/effort into attaining whatever your goal income level is at poker than to achieve the equivalent salary level at a 'normal' job.

Socializing is useful and important in many jobs, but there are many jobs that are more technical in nature and don't require much social skills (or you can be like D Trump and behave like a generalized douche-bag and still make gobs of money).

The freedom aspect is sweet, and I acknowledged that, but even then it has its limitations. When the fish are around and splashing, you have to play if you want to maximize your winrate. Also, many times, the most profitable times to play are weekends, evenings, or the middle of the night, where 'normal' people can enjoy socializing, drinking, getting laid, etc. All of which can happen around a poker table, but not nearly as much fun or opportunistic as being at a club or house party. Prime time in poker is usually prime time for having fun elsewhere, and I know since I've been playing cards, I've had far fewer opportunities to engage in the types of social interactions I prefer (i.e. meeting women -> getting laid). Maybe it's just me, but I've found it challenging to close with women who frequent the poker scene.

Finally, yes it's true, "there are a number of successful poker players that are making more in poker than they would in anything else," but I would contend that there are just as many, if not more, that are making less than if they would have applied the same amount of time/effort into other pursuits.

Of course, some people are just made for the poker lifestyle, and if that's the case, then the money aspect shouldn't be an issue either way. But that wasn't really the point...

You're not wrong, but your argument is more accurate towards new people who don't play poker for a living, rather than people who are already doing very well in the game.

I'm already taking that into consideration. Keep in mind there are a ton of write offs for a poker player, especially one who travels to play from time to time - mileage, hotels, per diem rate for food expenses, etc. It doesn't make up the whole 15% probably, but it's a good chunk.

These are definitely in the write offs. Also, we get a lot of comps that help us here. Right now I can get free rooms in Vegas and AC, a free meal at the Rio, a sweet $10 meal at the Borgata in AC, and I have about $400 in comps/vouchers available through Total Rewards.

I factored this in by only assuming a 50-week work year. Most jobs are going to start out with about 1.5-2 weeks of vacation and 3 sick/personal days. In poker, it goes up to some extent over time, because as we move up in stakes we will probably log fewer hours.

That's fair, maybe it's worth 5 percent, but I also plan on saving a significant chunk of my income each year which offsets this to some degree. The more cash that I have on hand, the more I can put down, the less I pay in interest, etc. I also plan on starting a business or two in the future, which poker will enable me to do by giving me the free time and money that I need... That can come full circle and give me earnings I can leverage. Here is where you need to separate your poker pros who just wanna chill, play poker, and don't really care about business/investing and those who have goals to do other things once poker gives them the ability to do so. The first subset probably don't care about being able to leverage earnings anyway - now, some may say that's a bad thing, but IMO if they are happy with the lifestyle they are leading, then good for them. Some people living a simpler life are far happier than people doing more.

Sure, I'd take 90K guaranteed over 100K non-guaranteed, but I am minimizing this with the way I manage my life/bankroll and I wouldn't trade the freedom for the peace of mind/enjoyment, unless I was offered a high paying job doing something else that I love.

OK... Again this is different for me personally than most, but that's not a perk I would've gotten in my field whatsoever, my loans are paid off, and if I do end up wanting continued education I wouldn't be in a spot where I could've gotten assistance from an employer. This is a factor for some people, but not me.

There certainly wasn't one in my industry... Also, keep in mind that for a while now we've had stagnated wages among the working, middle and upper-middle class, while the top 1-3% see their income go up significantly... So earning more year after year is no guarantee.

In poker, this is certainly a concern of mine. You need to move up in stakes to grow your income versus inflation, and games do get tougher over time. The issues of inflation and game quality in 10-15 years are the biggest issues in my opinion.

This might've applied in my field to an extent, but I think this certainly applies to poker... Not as much now as in 2004-2008, but I think it'll change again in the future and it still applies now for some... Players who are sponsored, who are signed by a poker site/brand, etc, get paid to do appearances and wear the patch. That's a pretty cushy situation that you can work your way into if you get lucky. I think you're overestimating this as if a high percentage of people get cushy jobs, when it's probably under 5-10% in the workforce.

That said, the average person working DEFINITELY does get more "free" time or "waste" time than a poker player. If I'm at the table, my goal is to be focused on every hand. I try to stay off my phone, although I'm not always successful, unless someone is in the tank or something. The average worker probably checks their fantasy football team, ESPN.com, etc for 5 minutes an hour.

This is valid for most people, but most of the jobs in my field (broadcasting) were part-time or contract work and thus did not have UI. The good news is poker players can't get fired, so money management is their own version of UI.

This is fair, but unless you marry a poker player, most jobs have benefits that extend to family members and theirs will extend to you and your kids.

The only one I really hadn't thought about is being able to get a mortgage. Student loans too, but they don't apply. Of course, I'm debating this and considering it for myself, and everyone has to do so individually. My options were:

1. Keep working primarily in broadcasting, often making less than minimum wage through loopholes, and without benefits.

2. Get a regular 9-to-5 job in a field that I'm probably not going to like, starting off entry level. Likely make 30-50K to start, and hopefully ramp it up... But will I ever get into a job I actually enjoy that pays me well? A huge question mark.

3. Go back to school for a graduate degree, take on debt, and in a few years get a job that likely pays 50-70K in a field that I should enjoy somewhat (but probably won't love like poker and broadcasting). At this point be on a track to make a good amount of money in the future, but with ~100-150K of debt from the education, if not more. Now you're talking about being ~32 years old, making let's say 65K, 45K post tax, living on 30K and paying down 15K of debt a year? At best it's going to take 6-7 years to pay off if you get a raise every few years. I'd be pushing 40 before I really started to be able to A) live above the 30-40K a year expenditure and B) invest significantly, buy a home, etc.

4. Play poker for a living, and continue doing broadcasting on the side. Expect to make about 100K a year, maybe 70K post-tax, and live on 30-35K. Use the difference to grow my bankroll and invest, and use some of my spare time to begin creating a business/revenue stream. I still have the option to go back to school in the future if I so choose, or to land a great broadcasting job if the opportunity presents itself. There are some disadvantages here, but for me, it was clearly the best option in my opinion.

I think you're underestimating how easy it is to get a 6-figure job, period. About one in five people make that much, and obviously the age demographics are going to be skewed toward older workers.

A six figure bonus? I'd say for the average worker, that's about like a poker pro winning the Main Event.


And makes it possible to offset a lot of the other issues.

I don't think everyone who can make 10bb/hr should consider being a poker pro their best option in life, but IMO it's mine by a long shot at the moment.

Most of that doesn't apply to me, but certainly to some poker players... Although I think they should consider socializing a necessity and improve those skills and get more comfortable with it. This is a whole different topic, but if you look at it from the standpoint of, "If all poker pros treated fish the way they do, would we still have fish in the game?" I think the answer is no. If fish showed up and saw one or two friendly fish and 6 silent grinders with headphones, many would stop playing. Thus, those poker pros are kind of leeching off those of us who are friendly and talkative, play a style that gives some action, etc. I'm not saying never wear headphones or always talk, but at least 60-70% of the time you should try to be somewhat friendly and not have headphones on both ears. Put an earbud in one ear, and if someone is saying something interesting, have a conversation. If LeBron makes a sick dunk, say, "Whoa, look at that!" and then ask who's going to win the finals in their opinion.

The bolded part is probably true. You don't just get to show up and make a ton of money at poker, you have to constantly work on your game.

This is a trade off for sure... You do need to play a lot on weekends, but you also have a lot of options with how you do this. If your goal is to average 16 hours per Friday-Sunday, you could do 8 hours Friday and 12 hours Saturday one week, then do 8 hours Friday and 4 hours Sunday the next. You could also play 30 hours one weekend, then take the next one off and make up the two hours later.

Poker also gives you the ability to take 3-4 days off whenever you want, then make it up by working 1-2 extra hours the next couple of weeks, or a couple of 6 day weeks, or whatever.

Don't forget that people working 9-to-5 jobs have to work some nights and weekends, too. Almost family party on a weekend I've ever been to, someone in the family couldn't be there because they had to work.

This is really tough to discuss because it's so subjective. Maybe Player A doesn't work on his game at all and is making $25/hr at 2/5. He just shows up, plays his hours, and leaves. His EV would probably be better getting a regular job and giving the same punch in/punch out type of performance.

For someone working hard and making 10+bb/hr, it really comes down to whether their other skillsets are as valuable. For me, broadcasting has not been. If I had a finance degree and hopped into a Wall Street job, that'd be a different story.

So, it's very subjective.

That's pretty accurate. Now is probably not a good time for someone who graduated college and is beating the small stakes online to decide to try to grind up the stakes and become a MSNL pro with an eye toward HSNL. That said, when we get the next boom (and we will, IMO), then people like me will be in the perfect position to capitalize.

Thanks!

Actually, he said he was worse than me, so I dunno what that was all about.

I actually do socialize at the tables, but I like the fact that I can selectively socialize, which you can't do as much in a lot of 'real' jobs.

I'll put it this way, I feel like socializing at the poker table is more like socializing at a dinner party, or any party for that matter, more than it is like socializing at a job.

With the ability to table and seat change you have much more choice over who you socialize with than you do when going to work at most jobs. Of course that's not the primary reason you change your seat or table, but considering most of the players you want to socialize with are the fish it is to an extent.


As far as the freedom aspect goes Pushaholic, you're right of course that our schedules end up being dictated a lot by when the fish are at the tables but aside from that...

1. We don't have any bosses at our workplace, we're our own boss.

2. We get to control the extent to which we have to deal with as shole co - workers and customers.

3. We can take days off entirely at our own discretion and with no advanced notice whatsoever. Also for whatever reason.

4. We can travel to other cities and countries are our own discretion. Well assuming single and unattached, but I mean there isn't anyone or anything at our workplace stopping us from doing this.

5. We get to sit in comfortable (usually) seats and play a game, while being able to order food and drinks table side whenever. I know some office jobs are like this, especially tech ones, but certainly not every job is.

6. As live players we get to meet such an amazing variety of people, more than in almost anything else you can do anywhere in the world, work related or otherwise.


More I'm sure, but those are 6 that come to me right now.

Cuse - The comments you made are reasonable, but you're turning it into your own personal reasons for playing poker...the "value of poker income vs regular income" discussion started as a ballpark estimate for most people. I said 50% and you said 2/3rds to 3/4 (months ago when we first discussed it). I believe my number is more accurate for the majority of people.

Now, if your career path has been in sports broadcasting, art history, burger flipping, or a person who's an 8th grade dropout, then sure, that may swing the odds in favor of choosing poker. Whether you're playing cards or grinding the real world, there is the implicit assumption that you'll be making smart career choices.

Ironic that you mentioned it, but I'm a finance guy, and I'm hoping to find my way to wall street where those six-figure bonuses aren't uncommon:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...2014/70142962/

And there's a lot of them. No, those jobs aren't easy to get as a job at McDonalds, but they aren't as difficult as winning the main event either.

Either way, if you're truly crushing the 5/10 for 10+ bb/hr, and you believe that's sustainable, then sure, I would think you're insane not to continue playing poker full-time. To put that in context, let's say you're at 11bb/hr, and assuming an average of 35 hands dealt per hour live, you're winning at a rate of 31+ bb/100 hands. Or, in monetary terms, that's $110/hr and dangerously close to a quarter-million per year. Heck, if you're winning at that rate, I'd be saving every penny, teaming up with a few other of my newly-turned-pro-friends who are also invariably making a quarter mil a year like it ain't no thang, and in a few years you guys can buy the casino you're playing at. Hit me up and I'll hand polish your Lambo for free, just to bask in your awesomeness for a while.

In reality, I think you'll find it's not quite so easy or lucrative. But y'know, I've never seen you play, so far all I know you've got a game that makes Phil Ivey look like a scared little girl playing cards. Hey, like I said, give me a call when your Lambo gets dirty...