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Poker Goals & Challenges Post your threads logging your travels up the poker ladder as you achieve your poker goals and dreams. "Challenges" does NOT mean prop bets, wagers, etc.

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Old 07-05-2015, 08:05 AM   #2601
bwslim69
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2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

I see you got Zima interested. That's a guy you want to do biz with. Huge stable of absolute ballers and completely understands the market for buyers/sellers.

Glgl
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Old 07-05-2015, 10:52 AM   #2602
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Well I appreciate that lengthy in depth reply to my post. It's helpful to you and your potential backers as well.

Actually I don't think the final 100 - 200 players will be all big names. I know it doesn't work like that. But it's also really hard to go that deep as a total rec fish. That requires so much luck.

I guess where we disagree is that I think most of the names you don't recognize in the final few hundred will be guys that make a living from this game at the midstakes level just like you. 5-10 or 10-20 cash game players, or guys that play the yearly tournament circut.

You may be one of the best players in your area, but these guys are some of the best players in there areas potentially. I think you probably are about even with these guys overall, some of them you'll have an edge over, some of them will have an edge over you.

You'll obviously have an edge over the few random fish that do somehow get that deep, but like I said the top tier tournament sickos still alive will have an edge on you.

So I'd expect you're closer to middle of the pack if you get that deep.

But then again, I don't know you personally and am fairly sure we've never played together either I'm just going off this thread and the fact you don't have a lot of tournament experience compared to grinders that are strictly tournament grinders.

Anyway, I don't buy or sell action at all, so it doesn't really matter to me what your markup is, just thought you were overestimating your edge a bit.

That being said I do think you have a big edge on most of the starting field and I certainly think you're a favorite to cash.

And I wish you good luck to go on a deep run.
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Old 07-05-2015, 07:54 PM   #2603
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

You don't have anything near the skillset of mr gr33n. You don't play $10k events on the regular so your edge is lol bad.
Just wondering how much time you put in this year on MTTs and what coaching sites you subscribe to.

You have good results thats great. It doesnt mean you know anything about these games that you have never played in. As far as being a deep cash game pro, where do you play deep 2-5? 1K max isnt deep. 300eff is kinda deep 400bbs starts being deep. I'll gladly buy 2% no markup if you answer the appropiate questions. So far your logic is that you win alot so you're as good or close to as good as the pros that have thousands of hours of expierence on you per stake and you have...600hrs of 200bb poker

Also we can just play 2/5 HU if you think your edge is that great
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Old 07-05-2015, 09:21 PM   #2604
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

There seems to be a lot of energy going into this discussion.. I've enjoyed reading. I find Mark-up, marketplace efficiency, and buyer psychology really interesting topics.

I'd just like to post based on my experience playing, coaching, and staking that sometimes a players ability to talk poker theory / analyze spots off the table does not equate well with their ability to execute in game. In my experience it goes both ways (Although, its much more common that players are more competent off-game than in-game).

Anyways, the reason why this is relevant in this situation is because the X% MU cuse(and most PG+Cers) is worth seems to be largely based off strategy posts in-thread... and that, in my experience, isn't the greatest gauge of skill(although, there aren't many that are better). Also.. these are self-reported, self-selected hands. If cuse were to only report hands where he played great and rarely post hands where he made a mistake, I think people would pay much higher MU.

I'd also like to add in that I believe the marketplace is very inefficient. Expected ROIs are rough guesses, buyers seem to be making buying decisions based on irrelevant variables, and sellers seem to be horrible at assessing their own skill levels. If cross-booking were more popular, I'd have loads of fun in the marketplace.

edit: I didn't realize cuse had a good sample of results, I thought he was part-timer that just started full-timing and assumed results were limited. So I suppose MU isn't based as much on strat posts as I previously thought. Still, I think my points are valid

Last edited by tmckendry; 07-05-2015 at 09:30 PM.
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Old 07-05-2015, 09:34 PM   #2605
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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Originally Posted by ITT666 View Post
Well I appreciate that lengthy in depth reply to my post. It's helpful to you and your potential backers as well.

Actually I don't think the final 100 - 200 players will be all big names. I know it doesn't work like that. But it's also really hard to go that deep as a total rec fish. That requires so much luck.

I guess where we disagree is that I think most of the names you don't recognize in the final few hundred will be guys that make a living from this game at the midstakes level just like you. 5-10 or 10-20 cash game players, or guys that play the yearly tournament circuit.
Yeah, I think there will be a lot of ABC TAG players who are relatively easy to read/outplay and a good number of overly aggro LAG's who are winning players but not actually that good, who can be exploited pretty significantly if you know how to do it. Also a lot of pros definitely don't have maxed out win rates - they beat the games for 5-8 bb/hr. I think there will be more of them than people of equal skill to me from the field of midstakes NLHE cash game pros, because there are more of them in general. There will be a lot of very good players with minimal leaks, too, but I just don't think there are that many cash players out there who are on that level. Maybe 10% of pros are actually on that level IMO.

While it's hard to get that deep as a total recfish, there will be a fair number of winning but not expert players who ran hot.

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You may be one of the best players in your area, but these guys are some of the best players in there areas potentially. I think you probably are about even with these guys overall, some of them you'll have an edge over, some of them will have an edge over you.
I agree with this, I just think the percentage of players who are actually on that level is not that high.

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You'll obviously have an edge over the few random fish that do somehow get that deep, but like I said the top tier tournament sickos still alive will have an edge on you.

So I'd expect you're closer to middle of the pack if you get that deep.

But then again, I don't know you personally and am fairly sure we've never played together either I'm just going off this thread and the fact you don't have a lot of tournament experience compared to grinders that are strictly tournament grinders.
I'd basically agree about the tourney sickos having edge if this was any other tourney with a faster structure. I think the slower/deeper structure lessens their edge. If we're 25-35bb effective, they have a pretty big edge over me, but so much of the Main is played deeper where cash game players can thrive. They do have an advantage in calculating ICM stuff on the fly, but I have a good enough understanding of it to not just be spazzing or anything like that, and to understand how it changes the dynamic and adjust my ranges accordingly.

Experience wise, I've played over 1,000 MTTs online and probably a lot more SNGs than that back in the day but I don't have those numbers. I know that's a drop in the bucket relative to the sicko tourney grinders, but it's not like I don't know have a clue I'm doing.

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Originally Posted by ITT666 View Post
Anyway, I don't buy or sell action at all, so it doesn't really matter to me what your markup is, just thought you were overestimating your edge a bit.

That being said I do think you have a big edge on most of the starting field and I certainly think you're a favorite to cash.

And I wish you good luck to go on a deep run.
Thanks... Hopefully I'm able to play it!
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Old 07-05-2015, 09:45 PM   #2606
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

Ironically, Greg Merson is at my table right now!
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Old 07-05-2015, 09:47 PM   #2607
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

Took a pot off Merson, so clearly I have edge on ALL the sickos.

Sample size: 1 hand.
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Old 07-05-2015, 09:54 PM   #2608
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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Took a pot off Merson, so clearly I have edge on ALL the sickos.

Sample size: 1 hand.

lolz #truth
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Old 07-05-2015, 09:58 PM   #2609
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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There seems to be a lot of energy going into this discussion.. I've enjoyed reading. I find Mark-up, marketplace efficiency, and buyer psychology really interesting topics.
Same here.

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Originally Posted by tmckendry View Post
I'd just like to post based on my experience playing, coaching, and staking that sometimes a players ability to talk poker theory / analyze spots off the table does not equate well with their ability to execute in game. In my experience it goes both ways (Although, its much more common that players are more competent off-game than in-game).
I agree with this. It's easier to put people on a hand when you're not in it, etc. I've railed a friend at a final table of a Borgata event before and called out a bracelet winners cards quietly to my buddy next to me several times... But I know that would be significantly harder to do IN game.

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Originally Posted by tmckendry View Post
Anyways, the reason why this is relevant in this situation is because the X% MU cuse(and most PG+Cers) is worth seems to be largely based off strategy posts in-thread... and that, in my experience, isn't the greatest gauge of skill(although, there aren't many that are better). Also.. these are self-reported, self-selected hands. If cuse were to only report hands where he played great and rarely post hands where he made a mistake, I think people would pay much higher MU.
I agree with this - I could have just left out all of my bad hands in this thread, but I didn't do it that way and would have felt that it was dishonest when it came time to try to sell action, etc. If you asked me to think about the absolute worst hands I've played in the last ~2 years, most of them would be posted in this thread.

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Originally Posted by tmckendry View Post
I'd also like to add in that I believe the marketplace is very inefficient. Expected ROIs are rough guesses, buyers seem to be making buying decisions based on irrelevant variables, and sellers seem to be horrible at assessing their own skill levels. If cross-booking were more popular, I'd have loads of fun in the marketplace.
I agree with this completely. I think buyers don't realize how small sample sizes tend to be in live MTTs, and put too much weight on recent results.

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edit: I didn't realize cuse had a good sample of results, I thought he was part-timer that just started full-timing and assumed results were limited. So I suppose MU isn't based as much on strat posts as I previously thought. Still, I think my points are valid
Yeah I basically part-timed online for a few years during college, and put in a lot of part-time hours last year. I did really well in the small-mid ($10-$55) buyin tournaments back in the day online but always cashed out and kept the bankroll small and never tried to build it and play higher, except the occasional Sunday Million and such... And I have very strong results in live cash...

But I think people tend to devalue cash results too much for the Main Event and overvalue recent tourney results... Like people can be break-even or close to it in $500-$1500 buyin tournaments and have an impressive Hendon Mob, and sell out at higher markup. It is what it is, though.

But yeah I agree with your points on strat posts in PG&C threads... At the end of the day, I'd rather be the guy who struggles to sell action but has never lied about a result or hand or even changed one significant detail in any hand I've posted than one of those guys who sold a ton of action at high markup, but was lying about hands, leaving out all their bad hands, changing details, etc...
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Old 07-05-2015, 09:59 PM   #2610
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

By the way, Merson busted, so that sample size is going to be capped at 1 hand played 15bb effective.
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Old 07-05-2015, 10:09 PM   #2611
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

Most of money made selling comes from being a likable person and you appear to struggle with that.

Take twoplustwo's favorite son, LotGrinder, for example. He's no where near the skilled player that you are but he sells action like no tomorrow!

Also a little humility goes a long way.
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Old 07-05-2015, 10:59 PM   #2612
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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Most of money made selling comes from being a likable person and you appear to struggle with that.

Take twoplustwo's favorite son, LotGrinder, for example. He's no where near the skilled player that you are but he sells action like no tomorrow!

Also a little humility goes a long way.
Ask any 2p2er who's ever met me in person, anyone who's played with me, anyone who's ever PM'd me, or anyone who's posted in here and not attacked me whether I've been nice to them. I'm confident you're going to get 95%+ of people saying I'm a nice guy and very genuine. The only people who dislike me at the poker table are annoyed I'm aggro and take it personally, or they do something way out of line and I stand up to them or stand up for the dealer.

It's funny to me when people take my responses to trolling/trashing and say I'm not nice. Throughout my life, I've been in the "nice guys finish last," spot a ton. Maybe I'm overcompensating now in poker in particular, but it certainly beats getting bullied/trampled - which I've done a lot of in the past (not in poker, in life, grade school, jobs, etc). If anyone who's NOT being rude/trolling feels like I've been mean to them, I'm truly sorry.

I've never refused a request for strategy advice, bankroll advice, turning pro advice, etc... I've responded to over 99% of the posts in this thread... I just don't sit here and take it when people are nasty or talking s*** on me.

As for humility, I'm very good at poker and I know it. I try to toe the line between extremely confident and arrogant, and I think most of the best poker players are that way or worse. It's tough to go far in this game if you aren't EXTREMELY confident. I try to stay on the confident side of the line, but I'm sure I cross it sometimes - probably more than I realize. I try to offset that by being helpful to people and in particular my friends in the poker world. I might be a little cocky at times around them (hopefully rarely), but I'm also going to do my best to be there for them when they need it. If those people who are actually in my real-world life come to me and say, "Hey man you're being kind of a dick," or whatever, then I'll apologize and we'll have a real talk about it.

As far as selling action, when people insinuate that I suck, am I supposed to say, "Yeah, I'm just alright, I'm not that good, but I'm nice, so you wanna give me some markup anyway?" I believe in myself, and I'm not going to hide that.

At the end of the day, if people are basing their investment decisions on whether someone is nice or not, they're not making wise decisions with their money. This thread has tons of strategy in it, all of my ups and downs in poker, and every now and then a verbal war with someone who IMO is out of line. It's 5 stars and it has a lot of views, and I truly hope it's helped people strategy wise or provided some small amount of inspiration/entertainment. I'd like to think this thread is a positive when I try to sell action, but if it's not, then so be it.
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Old 07-05-2015, 11:00 PM   #2613
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

Also, I'm now about $3,100 away from selling out. Deadline is 3PM PST tomorrow. https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18...event-1542448/
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Old 07-05-2015, 11:08 PM   #2614
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

Bragging about kindness misses the point.

That being said, Gl @ selling out.
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Old 07-05-2015, 11:14 PM   #2615
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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Bragging about kindness misses the point.
Then you're turning your post into a loaded question, if the only acceptable answer in your opinion is, "I'm such an a-hole, please forgive me!" If you say someone's not likable based on a handful of Internet posts out of a few thousand, and don't allow them to defend themselves and reference their character, then what's the point?

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That being said, Gl @ selling out.
Thanks!
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Old 07-05-2015, 11:39 PM   #2616
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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You don't have anything near the skillset of mr gr33n. You don't play $10k events on the regular so your edge is lol bad.
Which is why I said he had edge on me, specifically HU and short handed as well, because that's what he specialized in. I don't think his edge is because he plays $10K and SHRs regularly... It's because he's a beast HU/shorthanded and is probably about as close as it gets to optimal in the 0-30BB range. I don't really get your point, though, I said he had a lot of edge on me in the formats he plays.

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Just wondering how much time you put in this year on MTTs and what coaching sites you subscribe to.
I posted all of my results, I've played around 100 hours of tourneys in the last 1.5 years live and some more online, and a lot more online in the past. The results/stats are all in my staking thread, no need to retype it. I subscribe to RunItOnce, and I have read two tourney books this year, and also watched a couple of Vanessa Selbst tourney videos. I don't think they were on RIO, but I don't remember where they were. A free sample, or something? They were like 40 mins to an hour each, so not some five minute thing. I'm also in four study groups... Two focus on cash NLHE, one is more tournament based with some cash, and one is PLO.

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You have good results thats great. It doesnt mean you know anything about these games that you have never played in. As far as being a deep cash game pro, where do you play deep 2-5? 1K max isnt deep. 300eff is kinda deep 400bbs starts being deep.
First of all, 400bb deep is completely irrelevant in almost any tournament. The Main Event starts 300bb deep. By tournament standards 80bb+ is pretty deep stacked, and I'd expect to have really good edge on tourney players 80-100bb+.

Throughout my entire poker playing life - professionally, and in college part-time, I've played a lot in deep games. I played in an underground 1/2 game that was effectively uncapped (you could rebuy how much you were stuck), and that game was almost always $1,000+ deep late in the night and ran til morning. I historically have played a ton of long sessions, so I ended a lot of 1/2 sessions at the casino playing $800-$1,500 deep, and would have opponents $600+ deep pretty often after they doubled a 150bb buyin. While you may not consider a 1K stack deep at $2/5, when people buyin for $800-$1K, usually you're going to have several players at the table $1,500-$2,500 deep once the game's been going a little while. I've pretty routinely played 300bb+ deep at 2/5, and sometimes as deep as 700-800bb. At 5/T, I've played in uncapped games and ended up 400+bb deep several times in my small sample size, and as deep as about 750bb.

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I'll gladly buy 2% no markup if you answer the appropiate questions.
Where have I said anything that made you think I'd sell at NO markup to anyone? I have literally one friend I'd sell 1% to at no markup, and that's it. Or my parents, if they asked... But if I shipped a big score, I'd be doing some nice things for them anyway.

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So far your logic is that you win alot so you're as good or close to as good as the pros that have thousands of hours of expierence on you per stake and you have...600hrs of 200bb poker
I have a lot more hours than that playing 200+ and often 300bb-500bb+ deep... And the pros playing the tournament circuit have very little experience that deep... A $1,675 WSOPc event starts 400bb deep with 40 minute levels. Your average WSOP $1,500 NL event starts 150bb deep with 1 hour levels. The only people who are going to have more experience deep stacked than me are people who have been playing uncapped 2/5 or 5/T games regularly for a longer time than I have.

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Also we can just play 2/5 HU if you think your edge is that great
I don't make a habit of playing people in grudge matches or letting pissing contests impact my decisions on what games to play, but if you come to my casino and want to play 2/5 HU and I'm not in a good 5/T or great 2/5 game, I'll gladly play you. I'm not going to take a lower hourly or shell out travel costs to prove a point, but I have no qualms about playing you HU at 2/5.
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Old 07-06-2015, 12:21 AM   #2617
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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Then you're turning your post into a loaded question, if the only acceptable answer in your opinion is, "I'm such an a-hole, please forgive me!" If you say someone's not likable based on a handful of Internet posts out of a few thousand, and don't allow them to defend themselves and reference their character, then what's the point?
But I didn't ask a question.
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Old 07-06-2015, 12:29 AM   #2618
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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But I didn't ask a question.
You know what I meant, now you're playing with semantics.
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Old 07-06-2015, 01:29 AM   #2619
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

Surprised your ME action isn't selling faster now. I would buy at the MU given for 10% and 20% if I could afford it.
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Old 07-06-2015, 04:50 AM   #2620
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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Surprised your ME action isn't selling faster now. I would buy at the MU given for 10% and 20% if I could afford it.
Thanks, Daniel! Still consider the higher markup for 1% if you want a little sweat. I truly believe it's still a great investment, and every little bit will help. I'm really feeling good about getting there tomorrow, though, so we'll see.
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Old 07-06-2015, 03:54 PM   #2621
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

Under 30% remaining and I'm now definitely playing the Main Event either way, as I've got people offline lined up to buy the rest if it doesn't sell out in the thread. Just over 2 hours left to buy here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18...event-1542448/. Smallest chunk is 1%, discounts on bigger shares - all the details are in that thread.
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Old 07-07-2015, 01:05 PM   #2622
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

Gl coooooz!
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Old 07-07-2015, 05:21 PM   #2623
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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Gl coooooz!
Thanks! 37,700 on first break.
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Old 07-07-2015, 06:19 PM   #2624
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

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Thanks! 37,700 on first break.
30k starting stack right?
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Old 07-07-2015, 06:38 PM   #2625
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Re: 2014: I Ainít Trying to Survive, Iím Trying to Live it to The (No) Limit

Yes 30k starting
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