WSOP Main Event Update

Not a lot of my action has been reserved yet, so I'm not sure whether I'll be able to get it all sold in time... Hopefully I can, but if not I guess it's going to be satty in or wait another year. I do have a few more good opportunities to satty in, though. We'll see, though, maybe people are just out doing things on the weekend and the responses will pick up during the week. I know I'm a great investment, so hopefully enough people see it in time. Maybe I should have posted it sooner.

Ego-Free Poker Game Selection

One thing I've been putting into practice out here in Vegas is game selecting without any thought of ego. If my hourly is going to be higher in a 2/5 than a 5/10, I'll play it. If there's no good 5/10 and I find a 1/3 with a mandatory straddle that's going to give me an equal or better hourly to 2/5 with less variance, I'm in.... So I'm in a 1/3/6 last night, the mandatory straddle is on the button and can go as high as $20.

The Best, Worst Hollywood of All-Time

It folds to the button, who raises to $25. There are three calls.

Flop ($100): Q68

It checks to the button. He pushes away from the table and hangs his head. "Wow," he says, and shakes his head. I internally debate how much Hollywooding I'm going to give him before I call the clock. He looks away from the table and stares off into the distance for about 45 seconds. He falls into a short-lived malaise, with a sad, despondent look in his eyes. He looks back to his chips and counts them, two reds at a time. 10... 20.. 30... 40... 50. he stacks them up, lines them up with another $50, then cuts out two stacks of $25.

He leans back from the table again, stares off at the sea of slot machines and club-going women. At this point he's about two minutes into Hollywood, and I'm thinking of calling the clock, but I'm also curious just how far he'll take it. I'm debating whether the bottom of his range is KK, AA or QQ.

"Well, I've only got about a hundred and fifty, and it's late, so I'm just gonna go all-in."

The SB snap calls. The other villains fold. Mr. Hollywood turns over KK, the nut low of his range, and the SB sadly shows his AQ and wonders what went wrong.

To Be a Hero, or not to be a Hero?

Same game, there are a few limps and I limp the HJ with K5 because I don't want to fold out weaker suited hands. The button checks the straddle.

Flop ($30): T54

It checks to the button, who bets $20. I'm the only caller.

Turn ($70): 9

I check, he bets $65. I call.

River ($200): J

I check, he bets $140. I go into the tank, knowing he wouldn't bet a 10 here - he'd almost always check back once the over card hits. He's got JT (9), T9 (9), 45 (6), 44 (3), 55 (1). He could also have some JsXs, so we can say something in the neighborhood of 35-40 combos depending on whether he'd check back AsJs-QsJs. But he also has a full range of spade misses, a full range of 23/67, and occasional spaz.

I call. He says, "Nice call," and tables A6.

I'm pretty sure nobody else tried to bluff me that night.

One thing I find frustrating in Vegas is how much time you have to waste traveling for good games. There's been a serious lull in the action this week, so I've been doing a lot of moving around... About 1/3 of the time that I could be at the felt the last couple of days, I've been checking Bravo, comparing notes w/ friends on what games we've confirmed are no good, driving to another casino, sitting in traffic, waiting on the list, etc... It's making that volume tough to come by, unfortunately.

gl

I've decided to tweak my schedule a little bit and play a Daily Deepstack or two. I hear the fields are really soft, and sometimes the cash games are dragging at that time of day... So it should help me get some volume. If I bust, I can hop into cash, and if I run deep, it'll be worth my while.

It also gets me a couple of more tourney reps before the online bracelet and then the Main... that is, assuming I sell enough action or satty in. I haven't sold a lot yet, but hopefully it'll pick up soon. Here's the link if you're interested: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18...event-1542448/.

I'm up to 3% reserved/sold and 47% to go for the Main Event... We'll see if I can make it in just a few days: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18...event-1542448/

Thanks!

Firing in the 1K online bracelet event! Looks like I got a great table draw, if I can pick up a hand against the right people.

Ugh, I got into a bunch of pots with the fish and couldn't get a hand against him, then he gives it all away to some guy who had played one hand and, of course, had the second nuts... which was near the bottom of his range. So annoying when the nits get the fish money.

Check-raised a flush draw and straight draw and barreled the turn, whiffed, and gave up on the river vs. TPGK. Lost half my stack... For a 1K online, this structure pretty much sucks.

Their weekly $200 tourney's blinds with 15 minute levels and 5K stacks:

10/20
15/30
20/40
25/50
30/60
40/80
50/100
60/120

So after 2 hours, a starting stack = 42BB.

Their 1K Bracelet Event Blinds with 20 minute levels:
25/50
50/100
75/150
100/200
150/300/25
200/400/50

So after 2 hours, a starting stack = 25BB.

How can they do such a bad job at this????

I'm out... Fought as hard as I could on the short stack. I got probably 6-7 shoves/resteals through, then got my A7o in the cutoff called by 66 in the BB and didn't improve.

So it looks like my 2015 WSOP hopes come down to the Main Event, which means either sattying in or selling a LOT more action. 5% sold/reserved, 45% to go... http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18.../#post47432431

Caesars specializes in ****ing **** up.

That's how.

Have fun out there cuse!

No doubt... Thanks!

Yw, I'd love to be out there but I'm swamped with work.

I think stopping then session reports has hurt your wsop staking. Maybe drop mark up?

I mean there are still plenty there to read... Why do you think it hurt? I think it's too late to drop markup, unless someone took like 50%.

Do you think your hourly playing MTTs and selling action is higher than playing cash?

I think it might be in the Main Event, which is the one tournament I would always play over cash. When I mix others in its more because I'm good at it and enjoy it, than maximizing my hourly compared to cash. Like my hourly in a $1500 is probably less than my cash hourly but sometimes I'll mix those in.

Not sure about the session reports but the MU is way too high IMO

Plenty of people are selling at that or even higher though, and my ROI in the Main is definitely way over 30%. If someone offered to buy all the rest I might give a discount but I'd definitely feel like I was giving a massive bargain.

Not trying to **** on you so maybe I'll just keep it to myself but the market speaks and the market thinks ur MU is way too high.

Gl though

The MU also takes into account Tax as well as risk for unforseenable circumstances (i.e. player degen $10k buy in, or refuses to pay out, or other potential legal issues). If you read the NVG, it's full of poker players defaulting on their backers.

Even if you only take into account tax, that's 25% profit right off the bat.

Then add the fact that some decent players are selling at no MU just for the chance of that bracelet, and you've got a over competitive market.


happy July 4th, I bet there're some amazing firework displays at Vegas.

I thought it was too high but then again I thought 99% of ppl selling action in MP had theirs too high so don't take it personally.

It also takes into account that the player has paid all of the travel expenses and whatnot. Obviously the market isn't responding the way I'd like, but that's their loss.

MU has nothing to do with the horses costs. It's simply the backers premium for what it believes to be a profitable investment. At some point that premium is not worth the perceived risk.

Really simple supply and demand.

Have you considered lowering ur MU (or selling at no MU) considerably and playing 1C? Show potential investors your a good value, etc. Do that and if all goes well you will have less difficulty selling at MU in the future.

I'd consider it if someone bought the rest but I'd need to sell an even higher percentage to be able to play so selling at lower markup in 1% increments isn't going to work. I'm playing 1C though at this point - unless someone walks up and puts ~6K in my hand today.

As for what goes into MU, part of it IS that the investor does not have to go to Vegas and spend the time and money on being there to play. They're considering whether the player is worth the markup % in their opinion, but their only expense is the buyin so the ROI can be very high as opposed to the player's ROI after all expenses.