hand review 1
I think isoing with this hand from MP is a bit overly ambitious. I have a dangling two and we definitely don't want to be opening too wide 175 bb effective with the button who was playing pretty aggro. Obviously something like T9876 would be fine, as we do need some middle cards, but by opening this sort of hand and every other like it we end up opening too frequently.
The flop is pretty interesting. We have bottom two, a four card wrap and a ten high flush draw. It is also five way. We have ten straight outs to the nuts, and while neither a ten high flush draw nor bottom two pair are strong hands in their own right they do certainly have some value.
On the flop we face a pot sized lead and elect to flat. We know 8 cards so there are 44 remaining. We have 10 nut outs. We still have three players left to act behind us, and chances are someone has superior spades. What is UTG going to show up with here? He is betting in a five way pot, so I would expect him to have at least a set, or a strong draw. He is also 200 bb effective himself, so SPR is still quite high. What if it gets raised behind us?
Even if our flush draw is dead, and someone else has top set, we still have reasonable equity, because of our ten nut straight outs.
5-Card Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 9d2s6s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
99 40.41% 237,574 9,844
7s6cTs8h2h 29.70% 172,213 12,068
AcAsKs 29.88% 177,824 2,969
Of course that isn't the worst case scenario. It is not exactly unthinkable for our straight draw to duplicated, in whole or in part.
On the other hand, against "just" 999, we are a very slight favourite. Maybe I should raise. I could potentially clean up spades, and even by calling I am almost committing myself to stacking off anyway. Anyway I decided to call, and the button over called.
So the turn came a Qc and now the UTG player checked. I decided he probably didn't have a made hand, like a set, and was probably on a draw, otherwise he would pot what is likely the best hand and try to force some draws out. I decided to pot it myself. I do have twos and sixes. It's unlikely the queen turned anyone gin, and I have a bunch of potential outs to fall back on (many of which are of questionable worth). Without a queen in my hand I definitely risk running into queens up, which my loose opponents would probably not be folding. I actually pick up another rank on the turn, the jack, although my ten becomes non nut. Maybe it's better to err on the side of overly aggressive as opposed to running the opposite and less obvious but more serious risk of playing too passively.