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Old 07-25-2019, 07:00 PM   #76
ZKesic
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dbk_killer View Post
can you share your ev adjusted winrate at these stakes
It's a bit over 6bb/100 before RB.

Graph:



We're over 1 mil hands and 20k profit already!
A nice milestone.

Last edited by ZKesic; 07-25-2019 at 07:16 PM.
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Old 07-26-2019, 06:35 AM   #77
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

Obviously a waste of talent. I understand that some people like to settle and that's super ok

But you would be one of those top players that associated with high tier players you would be easily one of them.

Anyways ... nice thread
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Old 07-26-2019, 06:51 AM   #78
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

6bb is really good but it shouldn't guarantee low variance in itself. What do you think it is that keeps your downswings small and rare?
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Old 07-26-2019, 10:43 AM   #79
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

Quote:
Originally Posted by coldfaxxy View Post
Obviously a waste of talent. I understand that some people like to settle and that's super ok

But you would be one of those top players that associated with high tier players you would be easily one of them.

Anyways ... nice thread
there are multiple players on russian ptr with 10bb/100 winrate on nl25 while breaking even at slightly higher stakes, a 6bb winrate doesnt even guarantee a positive winrate for tougher games.
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Old 07-26-2019, 12:07 PM   #80
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

Quote:
Originally Posted by enzet View Post
there are multiple players on russian ptr with 10bb/100 winrate on nl25 while breaking even at slightly higher stakes, a 6bb winrate doesnt even guarantee a positive winrate for tougher games.
Well, think about it, what do you do in a downswing? Play the same way and amount? I personally do not. I do not believe variance is a mathematical certainty. I believe there is an element of luck on the flop and turn, which folks like to call variance. Think what you would do in a live game if all you did was lose hand after hand (been there, done that, starting hand TT and above). There are certain changes and moves you can make to reduce or eliminate. Just my opinion.
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Old 07-26-2019, 12:12 PM   #81
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

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Originally Posted by FutureInsights View Post
Well, think about it, what do you do in a downswing? Play the same way and amount? I personally do not. I do not believe variance is a mathematical certainty. I believe there is an element of luck on the flop and turn, which folks like to call variance. Think what you would do in a live game if all you did was lose hand after hand (been there, done that, starting hand TT and above). There are certain changes and moves you can make to reduce or eliminate. Just my opinion.
what are you talking about?
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Old 07-26-2019, 12:21 PM   #82
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

How could your hourly be lower if you made 5bb/100 at 100nl?
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Old 07-26-2019, 12:42 PM   #83
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

Less tables, no zoom, no games during off-peak etc. Idk the real reasons, but its not impossible considering he plays on a small site.
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Old 07-26-2019, 01:37 PM   #84
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

fair enough
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:00 PM   #85
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dbk_killer View Post
6bb is really good but it shouldn't guarantee low variance in itself. What do you think it is that keeps your downswings small and rare?
I believe that it's partially because of my very constant win rate. People have disagreed with me about this in the past, but I believe that win rate and std dev aren't everything when it comes to variance:

A lot of people that make 3bb/100 after 1mil hands, for example, assume that this was their "true" win rate for every hand in that sample. However, in reality, there might have been periods of time when the games were super soft + they were playing their A game and were actually making ~8bb/100, while in other periods of time the pool changed + the regs started exploiting the guy + he tilted and his true EV was actually -3bb/100. He just considered that a "downswing" though.

I have never tilted in my life though. Never even felt the emotion. It must be because I don't truly enjoy the game and don't play it for fun. I play to make money. When I hit a downswing I make sure to reduce the number of tables I'm playing and focus on finding out how exactly I can optimally counter the opponents. Sometimes fish even accidentally use a strategy that happens to exploit you.

I also use a pretty passive strategy (a lot of limping and checking flops) at different stack depths, which probably reduces my variance too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by enzet View Post
there are multiple players on russian ptr with 10bb/100 winrate on nl25 while breaking even at slightly higher stakes, a 6bb winrate doesnt even guarantee a positive winrate for tougher games.
I think that my pool is tougher than 50nl cash actually, since these are the highest zoom stakes on the site and there are many good regs stuck here for the same reason as me. There's also no game selection.

If I played only 800 hands/hr, my win rate would obviously be quite a bit higher than it is. Though, what matters at the end of the day to me is the $/hr. I'd be surprised if you can find anyone that has a higher hourly than me at 20nl/25nl.

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
How could your hourly be lower if you made 5bb/100 at 100nl?
It would be hard to play more than 500 hands/hr at 100nl. At 5bb/100, that would be around $25 per hour, which is still less than what I'm making now.
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Old 07-27-2019, 02:35 AM   #86
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZKesic View Post
I believe that it's partially because of my very constant win rate. People have disagreed with me about this in the past, but I believe that win rate and std dev aren't everything when it comes to variance:

A lot of people that make 3bb/100 after 1mil hands, for example, assume that this was their "true" win rate for every hand in that sample. However, in reality, there might have been periods of time when the games were super soft + they were playing their A game and were actually making ~8bb/100, while in other periods of time the pool changed + the regs started exploiting the guy + he tilted and his true EV was actually -3bb/100. He just considered that a "downswing" though.

I have never tilted in my life though. Never even felt the emotion. It must be because I don't truly enjoy the game and don't play it for fun. I play to make money. When I hit a downswing I make sure to reduce the number of tables I'm playing and focus on finding out how exactly I can optimally counter the opponents. Sometimes fish even accidentally use a strategy that happens to exploit you.

I also use a pretty passive strategy (a lot of limping and checking flops) at different stack depths, which probably reduces my variance too.



I think that my pool is tougher than 50nl cash actually, since these are the highest zoom stakes on the site and there are many good regs stuck here for the same reason as me. There's also no game selection.

If I played only 800 hands/hr, my win rate would obviously be quite a bit higher than it is. Though, what matters at the end of the day to me is the $/hr. I'd be surprised if you can find anyone that has a higher hourly than me at 20nl/25nl.



It would be hard to play more than 500 hands/hr at 100nl. At 5bb/100, that would be around $25 per hour, which is still less than what I'm making now.
Lool wtf is your hourly !?
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Old 07-31-2019, 11:00 PM   #87
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Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

July 2019:



Bankroll is at 22k



Quote:
Originally Posted by ZKesic View Post
I'll try to make the $3000+ profit happen in July.
I also spent 55 hours working and went to the gym 2 times/week. Overall a pretty productive month.

Some fun hands:

H1:

    $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

    Hero (SB): $20.16 (100.8 bb)
    BB: $8.91 (44.6 bb)
    CO: $36.20 (181 bb)
    BTN: $20.61 (103.1 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with K J
    2 folds, Hero raises to $0.59, BB calls $0.39

    Flop: ($1.18) 9 T 2 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BB bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

    Turn: ($2.38) 4 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BB bets $1, Hero raises to $2.80, BB calls $1.80

    River: ($7.98) 4 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BB bets $4.92 and is all-in, Hero calls $4.92

    Spoiler:


    H2: How do you guys play this spot?
      $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      SB: $20 (100 bb)
      BB: $25.03 (125.2 bb)
      UTG: $20 (100 bb)
      MP: $34.09 (170.5 bb)
      CO: $7.46 (37.3 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $20.31 (101.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with T 8
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.30, BB raises to $1.60, Hero calls $1.20, SB folds

      Flop: ($3.60) A J T (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.80, BB calls $1.80

      Turn: ($7.20) 8 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.60, BB calls $3.60

      River: ($14.40) 5 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      Spoiler:

      I think that going for 3 barells as a bluff might be best otf. Regs might be too capped when they x/c flop and it's good that we aren't blocking K/Q. 8 is also a pretty safe out usually.
      Do you value jam the river as played? I think we might get called by AK/AQ sometimes and the opponent may fold some 2 pair hands.

      H3: Got owned pretty hard, hah.
        $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

        SB: $50.96 (254.8 bb)
        BB: $20 (100 bb)
        Hero (CO): $24.10 (120.5 bb)
        BTN: $28.41 (142.1 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is CO with 5 A
        Hero raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, 2 folds

        Flop: ($1.10) A Q T (2 players)
        Hero checks, BTN bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

        Turn: ($2.20) 4 (2 players)
        Hero checks, BTN bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

        River: ($4.40) J (2 players)
        Hero checks, BTN bets $4, Hero calls $4

        Spoiler:

        I thought that he'd go bigger ott with KJ. That's pretty much the only Kx he's repping imo.

        H4:
          $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

          SB: $37.73 (188.7 bb)
          Hero (BB): $30.38 (151.9 bb)
          CO: $9.60 (48 bb)
          BTN: $22.99 (115 bb)

          Preflop: Hero is BB with K 4
          CO raises to $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.30

          Flop: ($1.10) J 5 2 (2 players)
          Hero checks, CO bets $0.38, Hero calls $0.38

          Turn: ($1.86) 3 (2 players)
          Hero checks, CO bets $2.60, Hero calls $2.60

          River: ($7.06) A (2 players)
          Hero checks, CO checks

          Spoiler:


          The way that I played it is pretty standard I think. But I've been thinking if check-raising the flop, check-jamming the turn or donk jamming the river would be better. And when?
          My blockers seem pretty bad for check-calling the river.

          H5:
            $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

            SB: $25.03 (125.2 bb)
            BB: $108.53 (542.7 bb)
            MP: $20 (100 bb)
            Hero (CO): $18.30 (91.5 bb)
            BTN: $21.57 (107.9 bb)

            Preflop: Hero is CO with Q A
            MP folds, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN folds, SB calls $0.30, BB folds

            Flop: ($1) 6 8 K (2 players)
            SB checks, Hero checks

            Turn: ($1) T (2 players)
            SB bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

            River: ($2.40) 3 (2 players)
            SB bets $1.68, Hero raises to $17.20 and is all-in, SB folds

            Spoiler:


            H6: That's what he gets for slowplaying AK, hah
              $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

              SB: $20.30 (101.5 bb)
              BB: $28.41 (142.1 bb)
              CO: $27.74 (138.7 bb)
              Hero (BTN): $8.50 (42.5 bb)

              Preflop: Hero is BTN with 5 4
              CO folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB folds, BB calls $0.20

              Flop: ($0.90) A 7 K (2 players)
              BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, BB calls $0.90

              Turn: ($2.70) 4 (2 players)
              BB checks, Hero bets $1.89, BB calls $1.89

              River: ($6.48) 4 (2 players)
              BB checks, Hero bets $5.31 and is all-in, BB calls $5.31

              Spoiler:
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              Old 08-01-2019, 09:19 AM   #88
              FutureInsights
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              Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

              H2: I do not usually call 3bet with T8s. You lucked out there, but over the course here, that will be a losing strategy against AQ.

              H3: Had several similar hands happen to me. You could consider folding on turn or river, if it repeats often enough, could be a leak. its hard to tell when villain has the KJ in pocket.

              H4: Since villain had a straight, a value bet on river would produce a call. With a jam, sets and better are probably going to call. Value bet, TPTK and two pairs will probably call. Your choice here. On the turn or the flop, I would have done a bit of check raise. BECAUSE, villains tend to let you take over the betting, and if they get their draw (since you raised, you must not be on draw), they will call your shove. Just my experience in these limits on Zone.

              H5: I've done a bit of that myself (stating to self, either you have it or don't)
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              Old 08-04-2019, 05:16 AM   #89
              youngdaggerdick
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              Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

              Why you dont go fully time poker player?

              How many tables do u play zoom ?
              gl gl

              Last edited by youngdaggerdick; 08-04-2019 at 05:35 AM.
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              Old 08-04-2019, 07:40 PM   #90
              Ballerholic
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              Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

              what a beast
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              Old 09-01-2019, 08:00 AM   #91
              ZKesic
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              Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

              August 2019:



              Bankroll is at 22.5k

              Had birthday this month

              Only played poker for the 1st week. Then went on a 7 day vacation to Croatia and worked for 8-10 hours/day till the end of the month.

              I spent more than 4000 this month:
              Spoiler:


              Quote:
              Originally Posted by FutureInsights View Post
              H5: I've done a bit of that myself (stating to self, either you have it or don't)
              He can't really have it there, can he?

              Quote:
              Originally Posted by youngdaggerdick View Post
              Why you dont go fully time poker player?
              I'll go full time now. I expect to make 2k+ in september (have another vacation) and 3k+/month in october and november.

              Quote:
              Originally Posted by youngdaggerdick View Post
              How many tables do u play zoom ?
              gl gl
              8-10 usually. 10 is the limit:



              I've only marked 2 hands for review this month:

              H1:
                $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

                SB: $34.86 (174.3 bb)
                BB: $30.97 (154.9 bb)
                MP: $24.43 (122.2 bb)
                CO: $56.07 (280.4 bb)
                Hero (BTN): $20 (100 bb)

                Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 A
                2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, SB folds, BB calls $0.40

                Flop: ($1.30) 6 9 T (2 players)
                BB checks, Hero checks

                Turn: ($1.30) T (2 players)
                BB bets $0.60, Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1.40

                River: ($5.30) J (2 players)
                BB checks, Hero bets $5.40, BB folds

                Spoiler:


                H2:
                  $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

                  Hero (SB): $20 (100 bb)
                  BB: $14.53 (72.7 bb)
                  CO: $22.06 (110.3 bb)
                  BTN: $20 (100 bb)

                  Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 8
                  CO folds, BTN raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $1.40, BB folds, BTN calls $0.80

                  Flop: ($3) 9 K 2 (2 players)
                  Hero checks, BTN checks

                  Turn: ($3) 7 (2 players)
                  Hero checks, BTN bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60

                  River: ($6.20) 5 (2 players)
                  Hero checks, BTN bets $9.40, Hero calls $9.40

                  Spoiler:
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                  Old 09-01-2019, 09:38 AM   #92
                  PassiveIsBetter
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                  Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

                  Why you don't move to NL50? You know you would have lower hourly there?
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                  Old 09-01-2019, 12:46 PM   #93
                  FazendeiroBH
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                  Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

                  I think he said somewhere that volume is really bad above nl20 and he cant play on other sites (or only stars idk) from his country.
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                  Old 09-01-2019, 06:57 PM   #94
                  FutureInsights
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                  Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

                  Can you play that many tables on stars?
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                  Old 09-01-2019, 07:18 PM   #95
                  FazendeiroBH
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                  Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

                  No, as far as I know the limit even for zoom is 4 tables. But I think you can add diferent limits to bypass that, so 4x 10nl + 4x 5nl etc. Not sure if it still works with the recent changes tho.
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                  Old 09-01-2019, 10:02 PM   #96
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                  Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

                  Quote:
                  1584€ Heating oil
                  How long does it last? How cold does it get where you live?

                  Wp on the month!
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                  Old 09-23-2019, 11:00 PM   #97
                  ZKesic
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                  Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

                  Optimal win rates

                  Exactly one year ago I made a goal for myself - to have a better win rate in every single area than the top 20 regs in my pool.
                  It's obviously a pretty ambitious goal that might not even be reachable, but chasing this goal seems like a good way to constantly improve in all areas of poker.

                  In December 2018 I compared my win rates to those of the top 20 regs for the first time. I looked at the 52 areas that I deemed most important and found out that my win rate was better than theirs in 34 of the 52 areas.
                  This gave me a score of 65%, which I was happy with.

                  After that I started focusing on improving in the "red" areas, in which I had sub optimal win rates.

                  This month (September 2019) I made another comparison, to see if I've improved in the last year.

                  The results were these: (I've decided to only reveal my win rates for the spots in which I'm leaking)


                  This time my win rate was better in 53/68 areas, which gives me the score of 78%. I'm quite happy with it. I'll probably repeat this in around a year.

                  For now, my main leaks seem to be in the BB vs BTN/CO spots, when I call preflop. That's expected since I'm sometimes playing sub optimally (too passively) postflop there due to the amount of tables.
                  Another leak seems to be in the limped pots, which I'll look more into later.

                  Quote:
                  Originally Posted by FazendeiroBH View Post
                  Quote:
                  Originally Posted by PassiveIsBetter View Post
                  Why you don't move to NL50? You know you would have lower hourly there?
                  I think he said somewhere that volume is really bad above nl20 and he cant play on other sites (or only stars idk) from his country.
                  Pretty much this.

                  Quote:
                  Originally Posted by Rapidesh123 View Post
                  How long does it last? How cold does it get where you live?

                  Wp on the month!
                  I expect it to last untill January or so.
                  It depends on how many people there are living in the house. If I'm alone, the heating oil costs around 2,5k/year. For 4 people, it's more like ~4k/year. The house is pretty big though.
                  Temperatures get down to -10C in the winter.

                  Spoiler:



                  Sorry for the late replies

                  Last edited by ZKesic; 09-23-2019 at 11:15 PM.
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                  Old 09-24-2019, 02:44 AM   #98
                  meale
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                  Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

                  cool, where are you getting the data from?
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                  Old 09-24-2019, 06:09 AM   #99
                  Minimal23
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                  Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

                  Quote:
                  Originally Posted by meale View Post
                  cool, where are you getting the data from?
                  This.
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                  Old 09-24-2019, 09:00 AM   #100
                  ZKesic
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                  Re: $100.000 profit at 20nl

                  Quote:
                  Originally Posted by meale View Post
                  cool, where are you getting the data from?
                  You mean the data from the top 20 regs?

                  I consider the "top 20 regs", the 20 players that I have the biggest sample on. They are all decent regs and I have pretty big samples on them due to the small player pool.
                  On the Number 1 reg I have 73k+ hands. On all of them combined I have 1mil+ hands. This is what I use for the comparison.

                  I know that this isn't 100% accurate, but it should be enough to give me something to compare my own results to.

                  I was considering datamining in the past, but that doesn't seem to be possible at the fast tables.
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